Improbable-Enactment — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$42

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

48.4%

Resolved

Trades

1,826

lifetime

Volume

$25.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-26

last 06-13 17:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Crypto

87% 45% $-42

Politics

8% — —

Other

5% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

45 active days in 12wk • peak 69 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	8	$1.1K	1,046	1,046	+0	open	—	03-03 19:48
bitcoin up or down march 26 2026 10pm et	2	$625	684	673	+11	open	—	03-27 02:04
bitcoin up or down march 26 2026 12pm et	6	$546	501	493	+8	open	—	03-26 16:39
will uk strike iran by march 31	5	$492	935	935	+0	open	—	03-02 20:12
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	9	$454	2,647	2,647	+0	open	—	03-28 12:14
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	2	$449	623	623	+0	open	—	03-26 18:24
bitcoin up or down on march 27 2026	2	$432	379	373	+6	open	—	03-26 18:05
bitcoin up or down march 26 2026 3am et	11	$423	326	322	+4	open	—	03-26 08:07
bitcoin up or down march 26 2026 9pm et	6	$409	530	507	+23	open	—	03-27 01:39
bitcoin up or down march 26 2026 7am et	6	$326	274	271	+4	open	—	03-26 11:28
US strike on Cuba by March 31?	2	$316	2,819	2,819	+0	open	—	03-03 09:05
bitcoin up or down march 28 2026 1am et	3	$311	222	218	+3	open	—	03-28 05:51
bitcoin up or down march 28 2026 5am et	2	$309	408	401	+6	open	—	03-28 09:16
btc updown 5m 1773648900	3	$297	212	164	+48	open	—	03-16 08:19
btc updown 5m 1774575600	3	$295	209	206	+3	open	—	03-27 01:44
bitcoin up or down march 26 2026 10am et	3	$281	202	198	+3	open	—	03-26 14:47
will germany strike iran by march 31	2	$270	993	993	+0	open	—	03-02 10:20
btc updown 4h 1774512000	3	$268	185	182	+3	open	—	03-26 10:01
bitcoin up or down march 26 2026 11am et	2	$257	179	176	+3	open	—	03-26 15:24
bitcoin up or down on march 4	2	$245	229	229	+0	open	—	03-03 20:52
bitcoin up or down march 8 2am et	6	$210	214	211	+3	open	—	03-08 06:46
btc updown 5m 1773644700	2	$203	172	170	+2	open	—	03-16 07:09
bitcoin up or down march 26 2026 9am et	2	$200	200	197	+3	open	—	03-26 13:00
ethereum up or down march 28 2026 5am et	3	$199	338	333	+4	open	—	03-28 09:34
btc updown 5m 1773541800	2	$177	94	94	+0	open	—	03-15 02:34
btc updown 5m 1773651300	2	$172	135	133	+2	open	—	03-16 08:59
bitcoin up or down march 28 2026 12am et	2	$167	127	125	+2	open	—	03-28 04:54
bitcoin up or down march 26 2026 4am et	2	$163	119	118	+2	open	—	03-26 08:28
bitcoin up or down march 28 2026 4am et	3	$163	236	233	+3	open	—	03-28 08:31
btc updown 15m 1773649800	4	$160	120	119	+1	open	—	03-16 08:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-13 17:49:03	bitcoin up or down on june 14 2026	Up	SELL	110	42¢	$46	0x89a337…
06-13 16:34:03	bitcoin up or down on june 14 2026	Up	BUY	110	40¢	$44	0x0f0fe8…
06-07 17:56:51	btc updown 4h 1780848000	Up	SELL	35	55¢	$19	0xf763d6…
06-07 15:30:30	btc updown 4h 1780848000	Up	BUY	35	51¢	$18	0x1c37b4…
06-06 13:19:25	bitcoin up or down june 6 2026 9am et	Up	SELL	38	32¢	$12	0xe08fc8…
06-06 13:05:28	bitcoin up or down june 6 2026 9am et	Up	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0xe386c4…
06-06 12:38:15	btc updown 4h 1780747200	Up	SELL	20	46¢	$9	0x2a4543…
06-06 12:06:48	btc updown 4h 1780747200	Up	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0x173f1b…
06-06 10:02:54	btc updown 4h 1780732800	Up	SELL	41	29¢	$12	0xb74f75…
06-06 09:52:21	btc updown 4h 1780732800	Up	BUY	41	49¢	$20	0x609edb…
06-06 09:18:04	btc updown 4h 1780732800	Down	SELL	33	29¢	$10	0x7272b7…
06-06 08:41:22	btc updown 4h 1780732800	Down	BUY	33	35¢	$11	0xcba0cf…
06-03 19:32:13	bitcoin up or down on june 4 2026	Up	SELL	63	39¢	$25	0x59bc4c…
06-03 18:45:40	Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4?	Up	BUY	63	50¢	$32	0xd1356c…
05-28 09:56:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	SELL	102	39¢	$40	0x19cea2…
05-28 09:35:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	37	62¢	$23	0xcb1c47…
05-28 09:35:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	65	62¢	$40	0xf8d6f6…
05-25 23:30:37	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 26?	Up	SELL	84	34¢	$29	0x633c7f…
05-25 23:25:41	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 26?	Up	BUY	84	35¢	$30	0x112f0e…
05-25 18:57:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2PM ET	Up	SELL	14	38¢	$6	0x1eb646…
05-25 18:55:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2PM ET	Up	BUY	14	61¢	$9	0x2829a3…
05-25 18:54:24	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 26?	Down	SELL	19	49¢	$9	0x91772d…
05-25 17:57:02	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 26?	Down	BUY	19	51¢	$10	0x72106c…
05-24 09:38:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	SELL	41	19¢	$8	0xac0c3c…
05-24 09:13:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	12	34¢	$4	0x321e9f…
05-24 09:12:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x841b56…
05-24 09:12:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xc42009…
05-24 09:12:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	SELL	16	66¢	$10	0xcdf892…
05-24 09:12:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0xea8f65…
05-24 09:12:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x4a28df…
05-23 07:36:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Down	SELL	17	41¢	$7	0xa73c1f…
05-23 07:35:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0xc27550…
05-23 07:32:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x59b62e…
05-23 07:30:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x95018c…
05-23 07:16:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x1571af…
05-17 23:39:51	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 18?	Up	SELL	70	42¢	$29	0xd792ef…
05-17 18:47:09	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 18?	Up	BUY	70	53¢	$37	0x4027c9…
05-17 03:23:23	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 17?	Up	SELL	115	37¢	$42	0xc97765…
05-16 22:17:22	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 17?	Up	BUY	62	54¢	$34	0xd8213e…
05-16 21:52:42	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 17?	Up	SELL	20	53¢	$11	0xdd256b…
05-16 21:47:55	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 17?	Up	SELL	8	53¢	$4	0x7b9044…
05-16 19:38:39	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 17?	Up	BUY	81	54¢	$44	0xf2bdfe…
05-16 19:18:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	SELL	41	46¢	$19	0xf289a5…
05-16 19:17:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	SELL	25	49¢	$12	0x44eea6…
05-16 16:02:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	66	51¢	$34	0x716a5f…
05-11 02:30:32	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11?	Up	SELL	86	43¢	$37	0xb84e36…
05-10 21:20:47	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11?	Up	BUY	86	33¢	$28	0xa6964f…
05-10 08:05:15	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	SELL	42	46¢	$19	0x31f900…
05-10 08:00:49	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	42	53¢	$22	0x3e3004…
05-10 07:58:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3AM ET	Up	SELL	34	26¢	$9	0x26ad93…
05-10 07:57:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3AM ET	Up	BUY	11	63¢	$7	0x4f7be5…
05-10 07:56:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3AM ET	Up	BUY	22	67¢	$15	0xa74040…
05-10 07:54:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	SELL	28	7¢	$2	0x10a8d2…
05-10 07:50:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x40f393…
05-10 07:45:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x5f6a8e…
05-10 07:42:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	13	55¢	$7	0xc751cd…
05-10 07:09:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	SELL	52	43¢	$22	0x3dcd7c…
05-10 06:12:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xe9a1a0…
05-10 05:53:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x470084…
05-10 05:53:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	39	33¢	$13	0x578962…
05-10 05:53:04	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 10?	Up	SELL	49	64¢	$31	0x6a74da…
05-09 16:35:11	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 10?	Up	BUY	12	57¢	$7	0x27deee…
05-09 16:32:34	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 10?	Up	BUY	37	57¢	$21	0xe13d87…
05-09 16:21:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12PM ET	Up	SELL	27	82¢	$22	0x1babf2…
05-09 16:02:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12PM ET	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x42fa39…
05-09 16:00:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12PM ET	Up	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x18ac38…
05-09 08:32:36	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 9?	Down	SELL	31	24¢	$8	0xaef223…
05-08 20:20:26	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 9?	Down	BUY	31	49¢	$15	0x35e416…
05-08 17:43:53	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 9?	Down	SELL	22	53¢	$11	0xecba63…
05-08 16:26:11	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 9?	Down	BUY	22	58¢	$13	0xb76a14…
05-08 16:12:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	11	59¢	$7	0x96442b…
05-08 16:03:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x9067d0…
05-08 16:02:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0xac2909…
05-08 16:01:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	SELL	12	71¢	$8	0xbb33be…
05-08 16:00:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x1a107e…
05-08 16:00:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x67d92b…
05-08 15:56:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x5fcce9…
05-08 15:22:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	SELL	13	90¢	$12	0x977264…
05-08 14:40:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	13	52¢	$7	0x1473e3…
05-08 14:38:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	SELL	5	15¢	$1	0x698ef5…
05-08 14:36:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x4fc98f…
05-08 14:33:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	SELL	6	75¢	$4	0xa38671…
05-08 14:21:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x1e25a0…
05-08 14:08:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10AM ET	Up	SELL	11	69¢	$7	0x8f3965…
05-08 13:59:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	11	55¢	$6	0x582d4d…
05-07 15:28:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x245e6e…
05-07 15:25:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11AM ET	Up	SELL	12	17¢	$2	0xa4cb40…
05-07 15:04:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11AM ET	Up	BUY	12	48¢	$6	0xa1850f…
05-07 14:50:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	SELL	7	95¢	$6	0x922248…
05-07 13:55:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	7	78¢	$5	0x3d0a74…
05-07 13:30:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xaf7042…
05-07 13:29:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	SELL	10	31¢	$3	0x8759e4…
05-07 13:07:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xe3db12…
05-07 13:07:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	SELL	11	50¢	$6	0xad0703…
05-07 13:06:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	11	51¢	$6	0x7a8305…
05-07 13:06:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	SELL	9	67¢	$6	0x06b89b…
05-07 12:55:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	9	73¢	$7	0x9c473b…
05-07 12:54:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	SELL	24	29¢	$7	0x0ee852…
05-07 02:32:01	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 7?	Up	SELL	59	23¢	$13	0x0fa008…
05-06 20:46:25	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 7?	Up	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x53e645…