Scaly-Estimate — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$59

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

78.8%

Resolved

577

Trades

917

lifetime

Volume

$2.49K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 10-29 20:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 137 days

Categories

Other

91% 60% -$17

Politics

8% 62% -$41

Tech

0% 100% +$1

Sports

0% 25% -$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

80 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 12?	2	$93	47	47	+0	No	+$1	06-12 08:48
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 11?	2	$82	42	42	+0	No	+$2	06-11 10:28
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 11?	2	$81	41	41	+0	No	+$1	06-11 11:18
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	3	$67	35	35	+0	No	+$3	06-01 11:42
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	1	$51	67	0	+67	Yes	-$51	06-14 09:05
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 9?	2	$48	24	24	+0	No	+$0	06-09 07:25
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 10?	2	$41	21	21	+0	Yes	+$1	06-10 16:18
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 8?	2	$41	21	21	+0	No	+$1	06-08 09:48
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 20?	4	$30	17	17	+0	No	+$0	06-20 05:26
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 20?	4	$27	17	17	+0	No	-$3	06-20 12:37
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 2?	2	$25	13	13	+0	No	+$1	07-02 12:24
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13?	2	$22	12	12	+0	No	+$2	06-13 14:11
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 19?	2	$21	11	11	+0	No	+$1	06-19 14:03
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13?	3	$21	11	11	+0	No	+$1	06-13 11:12
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 22?	2	$21	11	11	+0	No	+$1	06-22 08:29
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11?	2	$21	11	11	+0	No	+$1	06-11 20:41
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 20?	2	$21	11	11	+0	No	+$1	06-20 06:02
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 8?	2	$21	11	11	+0	No	+$1	06-08 12:50
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 9?	2	$21	11	11	+0	No	+$1	06-09 09:56
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 1?	2	$21	11	11	+0	No	+$1	07-01 09:05
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on July 1?	2	$21	11	11	+0	No	+$1	07-01 16:11
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 13?	2	$21	11	11	+0	No	+$1	06-13 05:29
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 9?	2	$21	11	11	+0	No	+$1	06-09 22:01
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 21?	2	$20	11	10	+0	No	+$0	06-21 12:39
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 9?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	06-09 14:23
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 21?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	06-21 12:39
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 10?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	06-10 16:18
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 7?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	06-07 12:27
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 10?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	06-10 16:18
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 5?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	06-05 14:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 20:16:52	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x78f73c…
10-29 20:16:04	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0x7e2031…
10-28 20:54:34	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on October 29?	No	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x98b3fd…
10-28 20:54:05	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x17841a…
10-28 06:11:10	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on October 28?	No	SELL	2	6¢	$0	0x84488a…
10-27 19:39:05	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on October 28?	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xadc706…
10-27 19:38:29	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	4	38¢	$2	0x13c081…
10-27 19:38:21	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	4	38¢	$2	0x9223f6…
10-27 16:38:38	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x47a904…
10-27 16:38:18	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x308573…
10-26 20:57:03	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xfb21b6…
10-26 20:55:59	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on October 27?	No	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x079fb8…
10-26 20:55:23	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 27?	No	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xd0aadc…
10-26 08:44:36	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x1ca92e…
10-26 08:44:12	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xa5c193…
10-26 06:32:08	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 26?	Yes	SELL	3	87¢	$2	0xd6107c…
10-25 20:59:36	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xae79a9…
10-25 06:57:15	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xbf1190…
10-24 21:51:09	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xa70788…
10-23 21:30:18	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 24?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x04a889…
10-23 21:09:08	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on October 24?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x8dcd08…
10-22 20:20:20	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	4	38¢	$2	0x5ca88a…
10-21 20:15:42	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	3	54¢	$2	0x2bcd5e…
10-20 20:08:17	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0xa7527d…
10-19 19:44:14	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 20?	Yes	BUY	3	46¢	$2	0x75d5b6…
10-19 10:22:30	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 19?	Yes	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xf8bc82…
10-18 21:08:02	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 19?	Yes	BUY	4	58¢	$2	0xad3b2a…
10-17 20:30:09	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 18?	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xef4648…
10-16 22:23:05	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 17?	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x2cc328…
10-16 22:22:00	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 17?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xae6ebf…
10-15 19:55:37	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 16?	Yes	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x2cb99b…
10-15 06:07:34	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 15?	Yes	SELL	2	29¢	$1	0xbf0170…
10-14 19:24:36	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on October 15?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xccbd29…
10-14 19:24:03	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x1cba9d…
10-12 19:52:30	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on October 13?	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x3df3f3…
10-12 19:46:32	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on October 13?	No	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xe4e7d5…
10-12 19:46:06	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 13?	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xb4dcd9…
10-11 21:39:23	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 12?	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x6280e6…
10-11 21:38:43	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on October 12?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x4f3059…
10-10 21:24:45	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 11?	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xefe658…
10-10 21:23:37	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on October 11?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x3d1f7e…
10-10 21:22:24	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 11?	Yes	BUY	3	51¢	$2	0xb19899…
10-09 21:30:11	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x2e0afd…
10-09 21:29:25	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on October 10?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xdd8d17…
10-09 21:28:14	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xed47a2…
10-08 20:37:45	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xa31db4…
10-08 20:36:53	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x64f0af…
10-07 19:51:37	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on October 8?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x291adf…
10-07 19:50:31	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x3b0104…
10-06 21:59:00	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on October 7?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xb95784…
10-06 21:58:03	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on October 7?	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x6b402d…
10-06 21:57:50	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on October 7?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xeee451…
10-05 21:09:20	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on October 6?	No	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x406398…
10-05 21:08:34	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 6?	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x40313e…
10-05 21:07:49	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on October 6?	No	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xb17c14…
10-05 08:36:25	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on October 5?	No	SELL	2	8¢	$0	0xef5acf…
10-04 21:35:07	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 5?	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xc2c990…
10-04 21:33:55	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 5?	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xb1f831…
10-04 21:33:46	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on October 5?	No	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x39a632…
10-03 21:35:46	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 4?	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x466395…
10-03 21:35:31	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 4?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x9467a5…
10-03 21:34:16	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on October 4?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xe304f2…
10-03 21:33:25	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on October 4?	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xfcd853…
10-03 21:32:38	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 4?	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x8cb63e…
10-02 21:01:00	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on October 3?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x64d472…
10-02 20:59:54	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 3?	Yes	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x3a679a…
10-01 20:09:35	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C or higher on October 2?	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xdaa930…
10-01 20:08:36	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 2?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xa95561…
10-01 20:08:24	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on October 1?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x628f08…
10-01 20:07:44	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on October 2?	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xee0135…
10-01 20:07:23	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on October 2?	No	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xda39a0…
10-01 20:05:57	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 2?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xfa519a…
09-30 20:24:33	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on October 1?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x206828…
09-30 20:23:38	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on October 1?	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xe8cad1…
09-30 20:23:20	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on October 1?	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x37acc6…
09-30 20:22:11	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 1?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x2c7c4a…
09-30 20:21:38	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on October 1?	No	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x70e883…
09-29 20:26:29	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on September 30?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xa6295c…
09-29 20:24:03	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on September 30?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xb8348e…
09-29 20:21:15	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on September 30?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xc1e19c…
09-29 20:21:00	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on September 30?	No	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x0846ec…
09-28 20:13:57	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on September 29?	No	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xa93000…
09-28 19:59:51	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on September 29?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x484847…
09-28 19:58:36	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on September 29?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x1b48f9…
09-27 21:04:48	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on September 28?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x94d593…
09-27 21:03:54	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on September 28?	No	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x1ea0c4…
09-27 09:09:32	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on September 27?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x5f7429…
09-26 22:11:51	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 27?	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xe8b884…
09-26 22:11:39	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on September 27?	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xce650f…
09-26 22:11:32	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on September 27?	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xfaad85…
09-26 22:10:53	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on September 27?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x06bbf5…
09-26 22:08:42	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 27?	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xaaf2dc…
09-26 13:55:41	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on September 26?	Yes	SELL	2	20¢	$0	0x5f78ee…
09-26 06:42:47	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on September 26?	Yes	SELL	2	8¢	$0	0xf30d58…
09-25 22:03:51	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on September 26?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xf4e3a4…
09-25 22:02:23	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on September 26?	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xb9bbd8…
09-25 22:01:57	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on September 26?	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x209f88…
09-25 21:59:27	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on September 26?	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xdc8ee4…
09-25 21:58:47	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on September 25?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x8d13c0…
09-24 22:23:06	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on September 25?	Yes	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x53cf8f…