Alienated-Bureau — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

339

lifetime

Volume

$52.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$153

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 07-02 08:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

63% — —

Other

36% 100% +$3

Tech

0% — —

Crypto

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 63 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Trump out as President by April 30?	89	$19.3K	9,790	9,898	-107	open	—	04-10 12:50
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$5.3K	2,639	2,639	+0	open	—	04-07 13:05
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?	2	$4.1K	2,100	2,100	+0	open	—	04-11 14:57
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	24	$3.6K	2,100	1,604	+496	open	—	04-10 12:32
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	3	$2.5K	1,240	1,240	+0	open	—	05-14 15:04
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	37	$2.1K	1,395	1,236	+159	open	—	05-20 07:40
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 15?	7	$1.9K	2,000	1,704	+296	open	—	05-15 05:37
will smoke be said 100 times during the pgl bucharest 2026 grand final	4	$1.9K	1,878	0	+1,878	open	—	04-12 01:40
will jd vance say rigged during meetings with orbn	3	$1.6K	1,560	0	+1,560	open	—	04-09 05:59
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	15	$1.4K	800	800	+0	open	—	05-20 07:40
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	8	$902	568	380	+188	Yes	+$3	04-28 02:58
highest temperature in seoul on april 9 2026 12c	7	$669	348	347	+1	open	—	04-09 11:25
will jd vance say slovakia during meetings with orbn	2	$594	596	0	+596	open	—	04-09 05:58
trump out as president by march 31	10	$526	300	239	+61	open	—	03-14 13:53
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	4	$513	300	300	+0	open	—	05-15 14:16
highest temperature in busan on april 9 2026 15c	17	$504	865	0	+865	open	—	04-09 10:48
Trump out as President by May 31?	2	$376	190	190	+0	open	—	05-09 11:47
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	3	$374	193	193	+0	open	—	04-19 11:59
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?	2	$371	188	188	+0	open	—	05-22 11:06
will jd vance say crazy during meetings with orbn	1	$345	345	0	+345	open	—	04-09 05:58
highest temperature in beijing on april 8 2026 22c	3	$263	137	127	+10	open	—	04-08 10:33
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	2	$256	516	0	+516	open	—	06-10 08:30
will wti reach 130 in july 2026	1	$251	255	0	+255	open	—	07-02 08:17
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?	3	$195	420	0	+420	open	—	05-25 11:51
will deagle be said 10 times during the pgl bucharest 2026 grand final	2	$156	157	0	+157	open	—	04-12 00:48
will jd vance say biden 5 times during meetings with orbn	1	$145	146	0	+146	open	—	04-09 05:58
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	2	$125	63	63	+0	open	—	03-27 05:16
will trump visit china by march 31	3	$123	62	62	+0	open	—	03-25 09:19
will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	2	$121	61	61	+0	open	—	02-13 06:26
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	2	$120	62	59	+3	open	—	03-13 14:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-02 08:17:34	will wti reach 130 in july 2026	No	BUY	255	98¢	$251	0xa31705…
06-29 13:48:31	will spy reach 800 in june 2026	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xfeb8a4…
06-10 08:34:57	Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x5e3a14…
06-10 08:30:25	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	258	1¢	$2	0xb4c4a8…
06-10 08:30:01	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	No	SELL	15	95¢	$14	0x03c0e4…
06-05 16:43:57	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	258	98¢	$254	0x3c249e…
06-05 11:42:46	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	No	BUY	15	91¢	$14	0x190d7d…
06-01 02:40:29	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xd617a0…
06-01 02:40:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	66	100¢	$66	0x4cec3c…
05-28 13:11:54	Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x882fcf…
05-28 13:11:28	Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x350956…
05-28 13:10:06	Will gas hit (Low) $3.50 by May 31?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x371970…
05-28 13:09:33	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in May?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xbeaf4e…
05-28 13:09:03	Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x717bb0…
05-28 13:08:23	Netanyahu out by May 31?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x81af3a…
05-26 03:10:46	Netanyahu out by May 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xd2a97c…
05-25 11:51:50	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?	Yes	BUY	210	2¢	$3	0x9c88a2…
05-24 11:20:58	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?	No	BUY	200	91¢	$182	0x5ae6bb…
05-22 14:11:35	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x522458…
05-22 11:06:09	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?	No	SELL	188	99¢	$186	0xb187c9…
05-22 11:01:08	Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 22?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x16ee11…
05-22 09:21:47	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xe298fc…
05-22 08:29:47	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?	No	BUY	188	98¢	$185	0xf8ecc8…
05-21 16:48:57	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x665aa7…
05-21 14:44:32	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x99eb47…
05-21 13:05:41	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xb717d0…
05-21 13:02:13	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc5ec6a…
05-21 12:56:26	Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xa0c4bc…
05-20 07:40:24	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	66	100¢	$66	0xffe428…
05-20 07:40:06	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	200	100¢	$199	0xe2ec93…
05-15 14:23:17	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	100	23¢	$23	0x885d41…
05-15 14:17:58	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	100	23¢	$23	0x029fca…
05-15 14:17:08	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	620	24¢	$149	0x4dc3a5…
05-15 14:16:48	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	7	75¢	$5	0xee1e3b…
05-15 14:16:33	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	293	74¢	$217	0xce3988…
05-15 08:18:51	Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0x45aec6…
05-15 07:28:02	Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xdb762a…
05-15 05:59:33	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	200	96¢	$192	0x36352e…
05-15 05:58:35	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	54	96¢	$52	0xdbc6eb…
05-15 05:58:07	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	70	96¢	$67	0xc1675b…
05-15 05:54:00	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xc59c05…
05-15 05:42:34	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	200	100¢	$199	0x122a59…
05-15 05:40:33	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0x7cc1f7…
05-15 05:37:24	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 15?	Up	SELL	200	51¢	$102	0x908e29…
05-15 05:28:52	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	440	99¢	$435	0x535c75…
05-15 05:26:23	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x6a254c…
05-15 05:09:12	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 15?	Up	SELL	285	48¢	$137	0x928c1f…
05-15 05:08:35	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	25	98¢	$24	0x5fc58d…
05-15 05:08:35	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	220	98¢	$216	0x0192cc…
05-15 05:08:32	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	25	98¢	$24	0x361487…
05-15 05:08:30	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	25	98¢	$25	0x1a1673…
05-15 05:08:27	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	25	98¢	$24	0xb27e4e…
05-15 05:08:23	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	25	98¢	$24	0xbd01d1…
05-15 05:08:21	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	25	98¢	$24	0x0fd864…
05-15 05:08:18	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	25	98¢	$24	0x3cc369…
05-15 05:08:14	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	25	98¢	$25	0xcf0dc0…
05-15 05:08:13	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	25	98¢	$25	0x6523e3…
05-15 05:08:09	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	25	98¢	$25	0x19ccb6…
05-15 05:08:07	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	25	98¢	$25	0xd28607…
05-15 05:08:04	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	25	98¢	$25	0xf46622…
05-15 05:08:02	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	18	98¢	$18	0xe270a1…
05-15 05:07:43	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	26	98¢	$26	0xa54206…
05-15 05:07:39	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	26	98¢	$26	0x506403…
05-15 05:07:38	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	26	98¢	$26	0x352fe9…
05-15 05:07:34	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	26	98¢	$26	0x2ba35d…
05-15 05:07:32	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	26	98¢	$26	0x87556a…
05-15 05:07:29	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	18	98¢	$18	0x366cfc…
05-15 04:59:03	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	200	90¢	$181	0x198740…
05-15 04:56:05	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	13	98¢	$13	0xdafd34…
05-15 04:54:02	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	270	97¢	$263	0x1e190f…
05-15 04:53:59	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	26	97¢	$25	0x5a2a07…
05-15 04:53:57	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	26	97¢	$25	0x91553e…
05-15 04:53:52	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	13	97¢	$12	0xb451eb…
05-15 04:53:48	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	26	97¢	$25	0x80e44b…
05-15 04:53:45	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	26	97¢	$25	0x846334…
05-15 04:42:05	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	195	92¢	$181	0x0fe47c…
05-15 04:25:25	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x17092a…
05-15 04:25:18	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$4	0xf17932…
05-15 04:24:45	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	11	96¢	$11	0xe589f2…
05-15 04:18:39	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	19	96¢	$18	0xef95bf…
05-15 04:16:33	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	200	96¢	$192	0xc3bfbe…
05-15 04:15:13	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0x330732…
05-15 04:15:06	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	40	96¢	$38	0x773cf7…
05-15 04:15:06	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x46a80e…
05-15 04:12:02	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0xb60230…
05-15 04:12:02	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0xb60230…
05-15 04:10:26	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	0	0¢	$0	0x69f20d…
05-15 04:08:20	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	90	99¢	$89	0xecf6b1…
05-15 03:54:15	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 15?	Up	SELL	200	49¢	$98	0x69a63e…
05-15 03:50:52	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 15?	Up	SELL	4	49¢	$2	0x95ec79…
05-15 03:09:34	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 15?	Up	SELL	15	53¢	$8	0x69dd66…
05-15 02:59:46	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 15?	Up	SELL	1,000	53¢	$530	0xb313e8…
05-15 02:52:09	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 15?	Up	BUY	2,000	53¢	$1,060	0x1c648d…
05-14 15:04:22	Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	1,240	100¢	$1,235	0x0f8751…
05-14 14:29:27	Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	240	99¢	$237	0x41cdd6…
05-14 14:27:09	Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$996	0xda6413…
05-09 11:47:01	Trump out as President by May 31?	No	SELL	190	99¢	$189	0x710039…
05-03 15:58:58	Trump out as President by May 31?	No	BUY	190	99¢	$187	0x7b8a01…
04-28 02:58:24	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	99	98¢	$97	0x3f0ee7…
04-28 02:58:06	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x00779b…