Barren-Expectancy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$616

Unrealized P&L

+$10

Hit rate

32.9%

Resolved

3,907

Trades

24,335

lifetime

Volume

$24.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$61

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-26 23:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 79 days

Categories

Other

37% 69% +$468

Crypto

37% 6% -$33

Politics

22% 75% +$149

Tech

4% 67% +$33

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

43 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (10) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?	Yes		+65	$51	94¢	$61	+$10	10-08 03:23

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	11	$3.6K	2,233	2,233	+0	open	—	10-19 15:53
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by October 31, 2026?	20	$1.4K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	10-20 08:48
Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $5.5B by October 31?	3	$832	486	486	+0	open	—	10-22 18:52
Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 22m?	5	$702	426	426	+0	No	+$107	10-24 23:27
Putin meets with Iranian officials by October 31?	2	$600	471	471	+0	open	—	10-20 14:58
Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by October 31, 2026?	2	$475	273	273	+0	open	—	10-21 23:14
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by june 30 20260622191733845	2	$400	417	0	+417	No	+$17	06-24 16:58
us reissues iran oil sanction relief by october 31	2	$386	248	248	+0	open	—	10-19 16:36
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?	3	$271	230	230	+0	open	—	10-17 09:23
will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	8	$262	162	162	+0	No	+$62	08-03 07:02
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by October 31?	1	$258	358	0	+358	open	—	10-02 15:47
Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by October 31?	1	$256	345	0	+345	open	—	10-03 05:00
Houthis capture Taiz city by November 30?	1	$249	358	0	+358	open	—	10-24 02:55
Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of November 2026?	3	$227	197	104	+93	open	—	10-26 02:21
Will Trump meet with Mark Carney by October 31, 2026?	4	$219	322	0	+322	open	—	10-15 00:22
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	3	$216	223	223	+0	No	+$16	06-30 08:46
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on September 20?	2	$210	391	0	+391	Yes	-$210	09-21 01:16
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 25% or higher?	2	$205	258	0	+258	open	—	10-26 19:07
Will Heidi Overton be confirmed as FDA Commissioner by October 31?	3	$203	230	0	+230	open	—	10-01 02:34
Microsoft matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?	1	$200	250	0	+250	open	—	10-11 06:49
will bitcoin dip to 75k on september 16 2026	2	$200	435	0	+435	No	+$235	09-16 13:01
Lula participates in debate before first round?	3	$200	364	0	+364	No	+$164	09-17 13:01
Will the median home value in the US be less than $419,000 on September 30?	4	$200	286	0	+286	Yes	+$86	09-24 13:06
Will Newt Gingrich attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	2	$177	210	0	+210	open	—	10-03 04:05
Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	2	$166	210	0	+210	No	+$44	10-08 17:28
RFK Jr. Out by October 31?	3	$162	189	0	+189	open	—	10-01 03:35
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	2	$159	100	100	+0	open	—	10-21 15:02
Will Talarico and Paxton debate live by October 31?	2	$157	220	0	+220	open	—	10-20 14:46
will trump speak to mark carney by august 31 2026	2	$131	231	0	+231	No	+$100	08-31 05:04
Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by October 31?	3	$121	72	72	+0	open	—	10-11 02:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 23:12:06	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $11.5B by October 31?	No	BUY	71	89¢	$63	0x8d4dfc…
10-26 19:07:56	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 25% or higher?	Yes	BUY	110	95¢	$104	0x67e5bb…
10-26 02:21:45	Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	76¢	$76	0x9d0910…
10-25 00:37:44	Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least $24M?	Yes	BUY	200	18¢	$36	0x7eb2ec…
10-24 23:27:41	Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 22m?	No	SELL	216	95¢	$205	0x26dad5…
10-24 23:14:30	Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 22m?	No	SELL	210	95¢	$199	0x2bde3c…
10-24 20:09:02	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 25% or higher?	Yes	BUY	148	68¢	$101	0x4c7a26…
10-24 19:32:44	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	130	78¢	$101	0x2bb59b…
10-24 16:22:36	Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 22m?	No	BUY	150	64¢	$96	0x0267ba…
10-24 16:17:06	Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 22m?	No	BUY	141	71¢	$100	0x326926…
10-24 15:21:30	Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 22m?	No	BUY	135	75¢	$101	0xc4f3c9…
10-24 02:55:47	Houthis capture Taiz city by November 30?	No	BUY	358	70¢	$249	0xea137c…
10-22 19:05:36	Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $14B by October 31?	No	SELL	36	38¢	$14	0x0d6d49…
10-22 18:52:23	Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $5.5B by October 31?	No	SELL	486	93¢	$453	0xfca79c…
10-22 17:00:08	Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $13.5B by October 31?	Yes	SELL	76	49¢	$37	0x37dbcd…
10-22 16:53:29	Will John Cornyn not endorse anyone in the Texas Senate Election?	Yes	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x8eda4f…
10-21 23:14:35	Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	273	83¢	$228	0xaa5674…
10-21 17:41:32	Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	76¢	$3	0x61c83b…
10-21 15:02:44	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	89¢	$89	0x8a763d…
10-21 09:26:41	Will OpenAI have the best Image Edit AI at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	64¢	$64	0x099260…
10-21 05:57:41	Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	273	91¢	$247	0x6688aa…
10-21 04:00:02	Will Meta be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0x2e0535…
10-20 20:02:48	Will Meta be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x38c531…
10-20 17:28:33	Will Meta be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	70¢	$39	0xca6cf7…
10-20 17:28:32	Will Meta be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x03f4a5…
10-20 14:58:24	Putin meets with Iranian officials by October 31?	Yes	SELL	471	77¢	$362	0x3c377b…
10-20 14:46:00	Will Talarico and Paxton debate live by October 31?	No	BUY	200	73¢	$146	0xdf233f…
10-20 08:48:19	Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	29	91¢	$26	0xdbe1a6…
10-20 06:24:13	Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	38	91¢	$35	0x697aef…
10-20 06:07:38	Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	14	91¢	$12	0xc3a43d…
10-20 06:07:31	Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	55	91¢	$50	0x6f3608…
10-20 06:07:22	Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0x2daa00…
10-20 06:05:32	Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	14	91¢	$13	0xbe0761…
10-20 05:07:11	Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $5.5B by October 31?	No	BUY	286	81¢	$232	0x9758c3…
10-19 18:33:26	Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	41	91¢	$37	0x61cbe9…
10-19 18:24:09	Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	34	91¢	$31	0x605f14…
10-19 18:22:53	Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	66	91¢	$60	0xddd4ba…
10-19 18:22:53	Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	70	91¢	$64	0xc2246a…
10-19 18:22:53	Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	91¢	$91	0xbec9d8…
10-19 18:22:53	Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	91¢	$91	0x9f0b86…
10-19 18:22:53	Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	71	91¢	$65	0x64bd86…
10-19 18:22:53	Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	91¢	$91	0x4e798a…
10-19 18:22:53	Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	64	91¢	$58	0x344f52…
10-19 18:22:53	Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	91¢	$91	0x0df80c…
10-19 18:22:53	Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	91¢	$91	0x05a44d…
10-19 17:34:06	Putin meets with Iranian officials by October 31?	Yes	BUY	471	50¢	$237	0xb3b7de…
10-19 16:36:17	US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31?	No	SELL	248	84¢	$208	0xee304e…
10-19 15:53:38	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,078	86¢	$1,790	0x9b47b3…
10-19 01:26:12	Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $13.5B by October 31?	Yes	SELL	31	55¢	$17	0x37e722…
10-18 19:45:45	Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	Yes	SELL	48	99¢	$47	0x73de38…
10-18 13:34:18	Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	197	75¢	$148	0xb5afb6…
10-17 23:15:14	Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $5.5B by October 31?	No	BUY	200	73¢	$147	0x2b6735…
10-17 23:14:48	Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $7B by October 31?	No	BUY	50	49¢	$24	0xca4ea4…
10-17 09:23:30	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	218	60¢	$131	0x6f71d8…
10-17 09:21:02	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	60¢	$7	0xc05611…
10-17 09:05:05	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	230	58¢	$133	0x846173…
10-17 00:37:33	Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $14B by October 31?	No	BUY	36	53¢	$19	0xfbff54…
10-16 09:46:54	Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	Yes	BUY	48	73¢	$35	0x7cc78b…
10-16 03:31:55	Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $13.5B by October 31?	Yes	BUY	107	53¢	$57	0x577f56…
10-15 00:22:37	Will Trump meet with Mark Carney by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	87¢	$34	0x2baf76…
10-14 01:23:23	Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	58¢	$17	0x526656…
10-13 22:42:40	Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Yes	BUY	35	84¢	$29	0xde32ee…
10-13 18:57:58	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	115	56¢	$64	0xaa5046…
10-13 18:55:36	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	76	71¢	$54	0x04adbe…
10-13 18:43:57	Will Meta's Watermelon model debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	17	93¢	$16	0x7cb61a…
10-13 00:38:42	Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	74¢	$52	0xaf6fe7…
10-12 20:31:00	Will OpenAI have the best Image Edit AI at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	86¢	$52	0xac47c8…
10-12 18:11:24	Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	61	14¢	$9	0x8d8e8a…
10-12 15:49:38	Will "The Social Reckoning" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m?	No	SELL	50	89¢	$44	0x4809b0…
10-12 15:49:11	Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m?	No	SELL	31	96¢	$30	0x7d0264…
10-12 15:49:11	Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m?	No	SELL	9	96¢	$8	0x68f7e2…
10-12 15:49:11	Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m?	No	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0x1b6dc1…
10-11 21:00:02	Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	73¢	$51	0xb2042e…
10-11 06:49:24	Microsoft matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?	No	BUY	250	80¢	$200	0xa133bd…
10-11 04:09:33	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	80	29¢	$23	0xac00de…
10-11 02:14:27	Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by October 31?	No	SELL	72	84¢	$60	0x90553d…
10-11 01:46:17	Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by October 31?	No	BUY	52	88¢	$46	0xeaa394…
10-11 01:46:08	Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by October 31?	No	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0x14fb78…
10-10 15:14:52	Will "The Social Reckoning" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m?	No	BUY	50	36¢	$18	0xd8b00a…
10-10 14:41:39	Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m?	No	BUY	43	56¢	$24	0x36b64a…
10-09 23:41:08	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0xbbcdc4…
10-09 20:37:01	Will Trump meet with Mark Carney by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	67	85¢	$57	0x15f128…
10-09 19:47:29	Will Talarico and Paxton debate live by October 31?	No	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x231e85…
10-08 23:59:15	Mamdani visits the White House by October 31?	No	BUY	9	88¢	$8	0xaf52f6…
10-08 17:28:05	Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	130	89¢	$116	0x6062ed…
10-08 03:23:41	Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	65	78¢	$51	0x9ffd2f…
10-08 02:21:52	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	82	47¢	$38	0x53c69d…
10-08 02:19:11	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	43¢	$12	0x12bb73…
10-07 18:55:37	Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	80	63¢	$50	0xfb7cd1…
10-06 19:34:08	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	76	66¢	$50	0xc37315…
10-06 15:53:48	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	130	77¢	$100	0x6238b1…
10-06 05:49:00	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	927	77¢	$714	0x091f49…
10-06 05:48:40	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	77¢	$770	0x3923ca…
10-06 05:02:57	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	77¢	$5	0x5f99fa…
10-06 04:53:30	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	77¢	$11	0x8a6b28…
10-05 20:15:08	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?	Yes	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0x388b47…
10-05 20:01:13	israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 9	Yes	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x8e99e5…
10-05 18:56:20	Will there be exactly 6 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?	Yes	BUY	195	52¢	$101	0x883652…
10-04 21:35:10	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	80	64¢	$51	0xdc137c…
10-04 18:50:47	Mamdani visits the White House by October 31?	No	BUY	82	90¢	$74	0x4cdefc…