Realized P&L
-$286
Unrealized P&L
+$237
Hit rate
12.7%
Resolved
163
Trades
2,358
lifetime
Volume
$22.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$9
Open exposure
$1.47K
30 positions
First seen
2026-08-25
last 10-27 23:16
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 41 days
Categories
Other
79% 17% -$192
Politics
10% 8% -$87
Tech
5% 25% -$1
Crypto
4% 25% -$7
Pop-Culture
2% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
64 active days in 12wk • peak 99 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? No +105 $86 92¢ $96 +$10 10-14 16:11
Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026? Yes +95 $73 86¢ $82 +$9 10-11 18:48
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? Yes +81 $45 99¢ $80 +$35 09-21 05:55
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31? No +78 $48 95¢ $74 +$26 09-12 14:59
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? No +98 $44 72¢ $71 +$27 10-15 06:04
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? No +91 $68 77¢ $70 +$2 10-26 19:45
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first? $140 +105 $65 60¢ $63 -$2 10-24 04:31
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31? No +75 $50 82¢ $61 +$11 09-05 20:51
Will "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026? No +66 $50 92¢ $61 +$11 09-22 15:57
Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027? No +83 $28 74¢ $61 +$33 10-21 06:31
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? No +74 $58 81¢ $60 +$2 10-15 18:08
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? No +56 $42 96¢ $54 +$12 09-05 20:52
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? No +99 $84 51¢ $50 -$34 09-20 18:52
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? Yes +99 $22 49¢ $49 +$26 09-20 08:42
Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes +82 $51 54¢ $44 -$7 10-03 14:15
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes +44 $36 98¢ $43 +$7 09-07 22:58
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first? $60 +105 $41 40¢ $42 +$1 10-24 01:52
Will Zcash reach $2000 by December 31, 2026? No +54 $43 75¢ $40 -$3 09-11 05:13
Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2026? No +82 $31 46¢ $38 +$7 10-03 06:05
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No +47 $37 80¢ $38 +$0 09-26 02:19
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes +41 $27 82¢ $34 +$6 09-28 19:52
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? No +34 $25 98¢ $33 +$9 10-01 17:29
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? No +51 $22 64¢ $33 +$10 09-19 03:50
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026? No +30 $23 100¢ $30 +$7 09-01 10:13
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting? No +30 $6 97¢ $29 +$23 08-31 17:58
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No +48 $24 61¢ $29 +$5 09-21 08:37
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026? Yes +30 $16 95¢ $29 +$12 08-31 22:10
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? Yes +98 $56 28¢ $27 -$30 10-15 04:01
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting? No +27 $14 99¢ $27 +$13 09-15 08:50
US imports Russian diesel by October 31? No +27 $21 98¢ $26 +$6 10-10 10:37