Superficial-Colorlessness-Effect — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

-$25

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

58.6%

Resolved (30d)

Trades (30d)

2,735 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$215

$5.56K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-28

last 10-24 15:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 49 days

Categories

Crypto

98% 81% -$221

Other

2% 67% +$27

Politics

0% — —

Sports

0% 0% -$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 57 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200?	2	$49	74	0	+74	Yes	+$25	06-12 12:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	15	$37	0	66	-66	Down	+$1	05-30 06:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	8	$37	25	25	+0	Up	+$13	06-02 10:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 11:15 UTC	4	$36	29	29	+0	Up	+$6	07-06 11:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 11:30 UTC	10	$28	25	20	+5	Down	-$3	08-01 11:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 12:10 UTC	19	$27	40	30	+10	Down	-$3	08-01 12:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-28 02:45 UTC	35	$24	398	10	+388	Up	-$20	06-28 02:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	2	$21	16	16	+0	Down	+$11	05-28 06:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 18:05 UTC	4	$21	22	0	+22	Down	+$1	07-08 18:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	4	$21	11	11	+0	Up	+$1	10-21 05:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	4	$20	397	0	+397	Down	-$20	05-29 07:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 02:35 UTC	4	$20	24	0	+24	Up	+$4	07-08 02:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 14:55 UTC	3	$20	0	30	-30	Down	$0	10-16 14:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	3	$17	31	10	+21	Down	-$2	05-28 06:31
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	3	$17	12	12	+0	Yes	+$0	10-19 10:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	3	$17	17	8	+9	Up	+$6	10-20 08:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-07 06:55 UTC	3	$16	130	125	+5	Down	+$1	07-07 06:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	2	$16	13	13	+0	Up	+$6	05-29 07:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-07 05:00 UTC	3	$16	29	0	+29	Down	-$16	07-07 05:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	3	$15	25	10	+15	Up	-$5	05-28 05:51
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 10:15 UTC	3	$15	15	9	+6	Up	+$1	07-08 10:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 09:10 UTC	3	$15	13	7	+6	Down	-$5	07-06 09:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-07 06:15 UTC	3	$15	17	0	+17	Up	+$2	07-07 06:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-27 08:20 UTC	7	$15	17	0	+17	Down	-$1	07-27 08:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	3	$15	33	10	+23	Up	-$1	05-29 03:33
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 17:30 UTC	10	$15	15	0	+15	Up	+$0	07-08 17:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	4	$14	10	10	+0	Down	+$5	05-28 07:29
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	4	$14	10	10	+0	open	—	10-20 09:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	3	$14	18	11	+7	Up	+$1	10-20 08:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	2	$14	10	10	+0	Down	+$4	05-28 06:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 15:31:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	70¢	$1	0x2a6697…
10-23 14:57:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	20¢	$1	0x287d02…
10-23 14:29:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xcc6009…
10-23 14:13:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x06734d…
10-23 14:13:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xa4679c…
10-23 14:13:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x677601…
10-23 14:12:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x1e9314…
10-23 14:09:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x2eee4a…
10-21 06:49:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x313fd7…
10-21 06:23:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x5c5a3f…
10-21 06:23:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x328d7b…
10-21 06:22:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x698ff7…
10-21 06:22:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x726633…
10-21 06:22:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x416e0d…
10-21 06:10:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x3b3fbd…
10-21 06:07:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Up	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x62430e…
10-21 06:03:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0xb7e96d…
10-21 06:03:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	BUY	3	80¢	$2	0x709654…
10-21 05:59:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xfd8620…
10-21 05:59:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x06dfb7…
10-21 05:58:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	SELL	6	90¢	$6	0x795b57…
10-21 05:57:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xbc94b6…
10-21 05:00:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xdce530…
10-20 09:31:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x3325da…
10-20 09:21:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x4632df…
10-20 09:07:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x0a225e…
10-20 09:02:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xde0170…
10-20 09:00:23	Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	72¢	$6	0xe8be09…
10-20 08:58:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x04709f…
10-20 08:53:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x2c2fb8…
10-20 08:52:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x432e08…
10-20 08:43:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0xe3b3d3…
10-20 08:43:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	SELL	11	35¢	$4	0x09e50d…
10-20 08:41:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x0892c5…
10-20 08:36:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x91314c…
10-20 08:35:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	SELL	8	90¢	$7	0xa774ac…
10-20 08:35:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	8	80¢	$6	0xa882e2…
10-20 08:30:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xabc4df…
10-20 08:24:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x036fec…
10-20 08:23:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	SELL	8	86¢	$7	0x4470ca…
10-20 08:23:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x7848f0…
10-20 08:16:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x3f4378…
10-20 08:14:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x7b82b7…
10-20 08:13:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	SELL	9	85¢	$8	0x1415ab…
10-20 08:12:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x57cb9f…
10-20 06:43:47	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	17	27¢	$5	0xbcc13e…
10-20 06:03:49	Japan Women's Open: Paula Badosa vs Antonia Ruzic	Paula Badosa	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x45270d…
10-20 04:50:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x393e03…
10-20 04:38:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x08f08a…
10-20 04:38:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12AM ET	Up	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0x4216e1…
10-20 04:37:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x93a531…
10-20 04:00:50	Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	72¢	$1	0x848a98…
10-19 10:31:23	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	12	68¢	$8	0x35a71b…
10-19 08:26:35	Japan Women's Open: Katie Boulter vs Himeno Sakatsume	Katie Boulter	SELL	3	52¢	$2	0xd0ee47…
10-19 08:15:51	Japan Women's Open: Katie Boulter vs Himeno Sakatsume	Katie Boulter	SELL	2	52¢	$1	0xcca864…
10-19 07:40:21	Japan Women's Open: Katie Boulter vs Himeno Sakatsume	Katie Boulter	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0xb83fcf…
10-19 07:39:06	Japan Women's Open: Katie Boulter vs Himeno Sakatsume	Himeno Sakatsume	SELL	6	51¢	$3	0x07b46f…
10-19 07:36:32	Japan Women's Open: Katie Boulter vs Himeno Sakatsume	Katie Boulter	SELL	6	53¢	$3	0xad6e56…
10-19 07:26:54	Ningbo Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Han Shi	Sorana Cirstea	SELL	7	80¢	$5	0x5aa35e…
10-19 07:24:48	Ningbo Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Han Shi	Sorana Cirstea	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0xfb6581…
10-19 06:56:32	Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x16047f…
10-19 06:54:14	Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x2e97a3…
10-19 06:53:50	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x7af46e…
10-19 06:52:53	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x7282ca…
10-19 06:47:41	Japan Women's Open: Ashlyn Krueger vs Janice Tjen	Ashlyn Krueger	SELL	2	82¢	$1	0x49c334…
10-19 06:24:59	Japan Women's Open: Ashlyn Krueger vs Janice Tjen	Ashlyn Krueger	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x8f1552…
10-19 05:57:32	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0xb54d99…
10-16 14:59:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 14:55 UTC	Down	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x63290e…
10-16 14:56:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 14:55 UTC	Down	SELL	10	40¢	$4	0xc6abce…
10-16 14:56:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 14:55 UTC	Up	SELL	10	59¢	$6	0xbc6aa1…
10-16 10:57:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 10:55 UTC	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x68e6bc…
10-16 10:48:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 10:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x74cfa0…
10-10 14:02:04	Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xbe53ea…
10-10 09:43:19	Will Lewis Hamilton win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x88d6ac…
08-11 16:57:48	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-11 16:45 UTC	Up	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x7b2760…
08-11 16:41:07	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-11 16:30 UTC	Down	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xb0cf1e…
08-11 16:26:22	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-11 16:15 UTC	Up	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x2e0644…
08-11 16:11:06	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-11 16:00 UTC	Up	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x45a4c6…
08-11 15:56:06	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-11 15:45 UTC	Down	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xe95a37…
08-11 15:26:13	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-11 15:15 UTC	Up	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xad7f5d…
08-11 15:11:21	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-11 15:00 UTC	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x4f9126…
08-11 14:12:12	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-11 14:00 UTC	Down	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x0ad9fc…
08-11 10:41:27	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-11 10:30 UTC	Down	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x827208…
08-11 10:26:27	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-11 10:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x2ad05b…
08-11 10:11:16	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-11 10:00 UTC	Down	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x487fe2…
08-11 09:56:15	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-11 09:45 UTC	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x1b3cb9…
08-11 09:12:04	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-11 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x83c61a…
08-11 08:56:12	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-11 08:45 UTC	Up	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x4e8383…
08-11 08:27:09	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-11 08:15 UTC	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xc434fa…
08-11 08:11:10	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-11 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x0f4289…
08-11 07:56:24	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-11 07:45 UTC	Down	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x20343f…
08-11 07:11:06	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-11 07:00 UTC	Up	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xea9dd7…
08-11 06:58:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xc52be5…
08-11 06:56:33	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-11 06:45 UTC	Down	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x4a8194…
08-11 06:41:06	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-11 06:30 UTC	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x83650d…
08-11 05:56:58	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-11 05:45 UTC	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x34b0b7…
08-11 05:49:16	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 05:45 UTC	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x05559c…
08-11 05:44:19	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 05:40 UTC	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xb0a798…
08-11 05:29:16	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 05:25 UTC	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x3444e6…
08-11 05:24:16	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 05:20 UTC	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xf0c031…