Flat-Dame — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$107

Unrealized P&L

-$171

Hit rate

59.6%

Resolved

1,487

Trades

5,234

lifetime

Volume

$54.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

$72

10 positions

First seen

2026-04-16

last 10-21 19:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 128 days

Categories

Other

83% 43% -$139

Politics

9% 32% +$362

Tech

7% 46% -$190

Crypto

1% 50% +$82

Sports

0% 0% -$9

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

56 active days in 12wk • peak 351 trades/day

Open positions (10) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Yes	+565	$120	6¢	$36	-$84	09-18 15:07
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+234	$30	6¢	$13	-$17	09-08 12:39
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	+212	$25	4¢	$8	-$17	09-06 19:50
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	+33	$10	15¢	$5	-$5	08-31 13:59
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	No	+31	-$47	16¢	$5	+$52	09-20 18:36
us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454 592 696	Yes	+83	$30	2¢	$2	-$28	09-23 14:57
will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 797	No	+32	$10	4¢	$1	-$9	07-21 07:31
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder?	Yes	+14	$5	4¢	$1	-$4	08-29 14:05
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+500	$30	0¢	$0	-$30	09-18 21:59
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+188	$30	0¢	$0	-$30	09-18 15:53

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 140 159	4	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$0	04-18 01:52
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 320 339	13	$1.8K	1,466	463	+1,003	No	+$17	04-17 17:27
elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 240 259	4	$980	506	505	+1	No	+$0	04-21 12:14
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	27	$968	771	661	+109	No	-$15	04-25 11:59
Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	15	$760	903	903	-0	No	+$238	08-25 04:21
elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 200 219	30	$719	606	602	+4	No	-$53	04-21 14:32
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	16	$697	757	757	+0	No	+$9	06-22 17:14
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	22	$619	1,340	840	+500	No	+$45	06-02 04:00
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	9	$559	525	525	+0	No	+$439	05-25 23:05
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?	17	$544	400	400	+0	Yes	+$104	05-30 09:01
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	14	$511	1,286	1,036	+250	No	-$66	05-29 16:04
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	18	$508	424	422	+3	Yes	+$36	04-27 15:15
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	24	$498	1,000	1,000	+0	No	-$115	06-19 15:41
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?	32	$493	850	750	+100	Yes	+$7	05-09 15:58
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 200 219	15	$479	510	502	+8	Yes	+$69	04-24 15:46
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	7	$478	403	400	+3	Yes	-$15	04-25 13:47
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	16	$472	400	398	+2	Yes	+$28	04-28 10:39
will openais astra model be released by september 3 2026	2	$471	455	455	+0	No	+$411	09-03 19:41
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	20	$403	600	600	+0	Yes	+$72	06-25 13:01
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?	24	$391	480	479	+0	Yes	+$135	06-15 06:29
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	28	$383	836	836	+0	No	-$38	07-27 23:42
elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 280 299	2	$381	200	199	+1	No	+$18	04-21 07:28
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	10	$368	1,701	57	+1,644	No	-$326	04-28 14:44
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	8	$357	300	300	+0	Yes	+$21	05-08 06:20
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	15	$356	300	300	+0	Yes	+$46	06-05 12:06
elon musk of tweets april 18 april 20 90 114	2	$350	200	198	+2	No	+$24	04-19 10:01
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	7	$348	1,018	1,018	+0	No	-$159	06-24 13:24
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?	3	$345	500	500	+0	Yes	+$35	06-06 02:14
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	6	$341	550	550	+0	No	+$77	06-01 12:25
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026?	11	$326	600	600	+0	Yes	-$50	06-20 15:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-21 19:27:51	Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?	Yes	SELL	77	64¢	$50	0xc6f685…
10-21 19:14:26	Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?	Yes	SELL	43	64¢	$28	0x885b79…
10-21 01:45:45	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on October 20?	No	SELL	31	99¢	$31	0xca3b9c…
10-21 01:43:29	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on October 20?	No	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0x674567…
10-20 01:12:15	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 20?	No	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0x36f7f7…
10-20 01:10:21	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 20?	No	BUY	100	44¢	$44	0x8837f8…
10-20 01:09:53	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 20?	No	BUY	46	44¢	$20	0xf50baf…
10-19 16:43:33	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on October 20?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xc66901…
10-19 16:41:36	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on October 20?	Yes	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x220fff…
10-19 16:15:32	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on October 20?	No	BUY	55	80¢	$44	0x384f28…
10-19 15:28:50	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on October 20?	Yes	BUY	23	39¢	$9	0xa2c404…
10-19 15:20:54	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on October 20?	Yes	BUY	9	75¢	$7	0xada8c4…
10-19 15:18:17	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on October 20?	Yes	BUY	35	39¢	$14	0xf266a5…
10-19 15:18:17	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on October 20?	Yes	BUY	35	6¢	$2	0xe61f64…
10-19 15:18:17	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on October 20?	Yes	BUY	99	39¢	$39	0x98a85c…
10-19 15:18:17	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on October 20?	Yes	BUY	98	6¢	$6	0x42a676…
10-17 10:19:56	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 18?	No	BUY	2	77¢	$2	0xb0abdd…
10-13 14:28:04	Will Z.ai have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	Yes	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0xce1100…
10-13 14:28:04	Will Z.ai have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	Yes	BUY	26	0¢	$0	0xc7e820…
10-13 14:15:49	Will Z.ai have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	Yes	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0xea4343…
10-13 11:03:01	Will Z.ai have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	Yes	BUY	34	0¢	$0	0x39fb5b…
10-13 11:03:01	Will Z.ai have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	Yes	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0x39e1c6…
10-13 11:02:40	Will Z.ai have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xc364b7…
10-13 11:02:40	Will Z.ai have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	Yes	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0x0d7ce7…
10-13 08:26:05	chatgpt outage by october 31 2026 20261009	No	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0x6a901e…
10-13 08:24:20	chatgpt outage by october 31 2026 20261009	No	BUY	8	35¢	$3	0x894a57…
10-13 08:23:46	chatgpt outage by october 31 2026 20261009	No	BUY	12	35¢	$4	0xf42940…
10-12 14:51:08	Will Z.ai have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	Yes	BUY	41	1¢	$0	0xe0ab13…
10-12 10:14:47	Will Z.ai have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	Yes	BUY	2	12¢	$0	0x3b0ae5…
10-12 09:55:49	Will Z.ai have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x33aa0d…
10-12 08:20:10	Will Z.ai have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	Yes	BUY	18	12¢	$2	0x3c4210…
10-08 21:49:35	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	85¢	$26	0xa2fd0f…
10-02 05:05:35	will the next google gemini pro model be released by october 31 2026	No	SELL	119	78¢	$93	0x4a1092…
09-26 01:32:38	Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	79	85¢	$67	0x87eb16…
09-24 02:27:55	Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	85¢	$26	0xa1e1b9…
09-23 14:57:48	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454 592 696	Yes	BUY	83	36¢	$30	0x03e95c…
09-21 15:57:37	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026?	No	SELL	110	85¢	$94	0xee58a8…
09-21 15:57:35	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026?	No	SELL	10	85¢	$9	0x3550a5…
09-21 14:27:24	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026?	No	BUY	121	25¢	$30	0x92b402…
09-20 18:36:53	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	195	55¢	$107	0x7b7756…
09-20 16:16:18	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	125	24¢	$30	0x1a157d…
09-20 13:25:52	Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	135	68¢	$92	0x8351bf…
09-19 18:59:09	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on September 21?	Yes	BUY	14	48¢	$7	0xdc7242…
09-19 18:58:48	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on September 20?	Yes	BUY	103	39¢	$40	0xa2dd50…
09-19 13:55:29	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	244	12¢	$30	0x7130c3…
09-19 07:59:25	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0x329794…
09-19 07:59:24	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	54	98¢	$53	0x126eee…
09-19 00:31:25	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	122	24¢	$30	0xef48eb…
09-19 00:29:43	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	120	25¢	$30	0xa80730…
09-18 21:59:16	Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	6¢	$30	0x5bac38…
09-18 20:14:34	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	115	26¢	$30	0x5bd5e5…
09-18 18:59:30	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on September 19?	Yes	BUY	62	43¢	$27	0x625410…
09-18 15:53:40	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	188	16¢	$30	0x1ebd5a…
09-18 15:07:16	Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Yes	BUY	159	19¢	$30	0xb80912…
09-18 14:26:15	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?	No	BUY	361	8¢	$30	0xb78c8a…
09-18 00:58:57	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on September 18?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x312067…
09-18 00:58:48	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on September 18?	Yes	BUY	8	48¢	$4	0x94b525…
09-18 00:30:18	Lions vs. Bills	Lions	SELL	97	22¢	$21	0xaa83d9…
09-18 00:19:37	Lions vs. Bills	Lions	BUY	97	31¢	$30	0x9f2cbe…
09-17 14:14:22	Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Yes	BUY	144	21¢	$30	0xb3c3c9…
09-17 14:14:10	Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	8¢	$2	0x748898…
09-16 18:59:21	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on September 18?	Yes	BUY	70	37¢	$26	0x0d6c59…
09-16 11:30:31	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	165	17¢	$28	0x88718b…
09-16 08:58:48	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on September 16?	Yes	BUY	23	91¢	$21	0xcf53d7…
09-16 07:01:06	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C or higher on September 17?	Yes	BUY	67	47¢	$32	0x0fe86a…
09-16 07:01:03	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C or higher on September 17?	Yes	BUY	18	46¢	$8	0x3d5f72…
09-16 03:27:34	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	14¢	$7	0x673cf7…
09-15 23:53:49	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	176	17¢	$30	0x7ed824…
09-15 23:27:45	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?	No	BUY	103	29¢	$30	0xecc57e…
09-15 21:37:48	Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	79	38¢	$30	0xac103e…
09-15 21:31:21	Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Yes	BUY	175	17¢	$30	0x02841e…
09-15 21:31:13	Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Yes	BUY	435	7¢	$30	0x3343c3…
09-15 13:27:42	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	111	27¢	$30	0x720660…
09-15 01:05:45	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	274	16¢	$44	0xfa65f3…
09-14 18:59:57	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on September 16?	Yes	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0x2fecd7…
09-14 17:42:22	Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	27¢	$11	0x9a2b74…
09-14 17:35:19	Will DeepSeek IPO by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	110	27¢	$30	0xa8026a…
09-14 14:20:55	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	107	28¢	$30	0xd4f827…
09-13 23:27:24	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	SELL	42	10¢	$4	0x174e84…
09-13 19:11:10	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on September 13?	Yes	SELL	42	98¢	$42	0x94472e…
09-13 19:02:31	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on September 13?	Yes	BUY	42	94¢	$40	0xde6682…
09-13 19:00:54	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on September 15?	Yes	BUY	7	37¢	$3	0x8d79cb…
09-13 19:00:51	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on September 15?	Yes	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0xb84776…
09-13 19:00:07	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on September 15?	Yes	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0x49cad3…
09-13 18:59:51	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on September 15?	Yes	BUY	30	32¢	$10	0x37f425…
09-13 18:08:24	Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	115	26¢	$30	0x23a5c6…
09-13 15:09:40	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	103	29¢	$30	0x617cbb…
09-13 15:09:13	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	107	28¢	$30	0x0ec4a4…
09-13 14:31:10	Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?	Yes	BUY	120	25¢	$30	0x73a2cd…
09-13 14:30:15	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	13	16¢	$2	0xb42ecb…
09-13 01:00:54	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on September 14?	Yes	BUY	6	42¢	$2	0xa2fc68…
09-12 15:01:03	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on September 12?	Yes	BUY	62	55¢	$34	0x7a8a58…
09-11 23:19:25	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	22	9¢	$2	0xa41492…
09-11 21:18:13	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	58	86¢	$50	0x295ff6…
09-11 21:18:10	Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?	No	SELL	50	85¢	$42	0x780a04…
09-11 20:38:18	Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Yes	BUY	86	35¢	$30	0x26608e…
09-11 20:37:06	Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Yes	BUY	252	12¢	$30	0x188b51…
09-11 18:59:58	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on September 12?	Yes	BUY	44	49¢	$22	0xf35bd4…
09-11 18:59:40	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on September 12?	Yes	BUY	30	49¢	$15	0x7e7d05…
09-11 18:59:40	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on September 12?	Yes	BUY	7	49¢	$4	0x7e1814…