Formal-Worry — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$491

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

53.7%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

398 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$2.04K

$9.12K lifetime

Avg / trade

$23

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-30

last 10-23 09:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 66 days

Categories

Crypto

60% 47% -$663

Other

35% 21% -$738

Sports

5% 50% -$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 17?	9	$346	1,164	1,164	+0	No	-$49	05-17 09:21
Will Ferencvárosi TC win on 2026-10-15?	3	$295	197	197	+0	Yes	+$98	10-15 21:04
Telekom Baskets Bonn vs. Wuerzburg	2	$266	198	198	+0	Wuerzburg	+$126	05-16 20:24
Spurs vs. Thunder	4	$241	496	110	+386	Thunder	-$156	05-26 18:03
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16?	2	$177	113	113	+0	Yes	+$48	05-16 18:07
bitcoin above 64k on july 13 2026	3	$174	129	129	+0	No	+$66	07-13 10:06
bitcoin up or down august 6 2026 5am et	2	$164	107	107	+0	Down	+$49	08-06 09:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11AM ET	3	$157	105	105	+0	Down	+$51	05-26 15:52
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 2?	7	$144	80	80	+0	Down	+$15	05-02 16:02
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on July 28?	2	$139	826	826	+0	No	-$135	07-28 15:16
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-17?	2	$139	94	94	+0	Yes	+$48	05-17 18:48
bitcoin up or down on july 14 2026	2	$135	144	144	+0	Up	+$28	07-14 06:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	2	$124	80	80	+0	Up	+$35	10-10 18:44
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?	3	$122	230	230	+0	No	-$2	07-07 14:00
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on July 28?	38	$121	203	203	+0	No	+$9	07-24 15:31
Spurs vs. Timberwolves	1	$120	334	0	+334	Timberwolves	+$214	05-10 21:03
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 3?	3	$119	120	120	+0	Up	-$1	05-02 17:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-24 15:35 UTC	2	$116	77	77	+0	Up	+$37	07-24 15:40
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-05-17?	2	$105	351	351	+0	No	-$77	05-17 19:28
Pistons vs. Cavaliers	1	$104	253	0	+253	Cavaliers	-$104	05-11 20:47
bitcoin up or down august 6 2026 6am et	1	$103	201	0	+201	Down	-$103	08-06 09:56
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-13 08:00 UTC	1	$102	145	0	+145	Down	-$102	07-13 10:06
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 11:45 UTC	2	$96	198	0	+198	Down	-$96	10-16 11:44
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-07-25?	2	$95	167	167	+0	Yes	-$5	07-24 08:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1PM ET	2	$94	53	53	+0	Down	+$12	05-26 18:02
Will Australia win on 2026-06-06?	1	$90	624	0	+624	No	-$90	06-06 18:27
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Argentina?	3	$89	1,712	451	+1,261	No	-$54	07-19 15:14
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-10-18?	2	$89	59	59	+0	Yes	+$30	10-18 21:00
Villarreal CF vs. Levante UD: O/U 3.5	2	$88	62	62	+0	Over	+$36	05-02 13:33
Will KF Víkingur win on 2026-07-21?	2	$87	60	60	+0	Yes	+$34	07-21 20:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-23 09:27:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0xc23db4…
10-23 09:26:02	Will Perth Glory FC win on 2026-10-23?	Yes	BUY	73	27¢	$20	0x392df7…
10-21 07:25:54	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 2 Arsenal FC?	Yes	BUY	373	8¢	$30	0x5b2a56…
10-21 06:59:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	53	52¢	$27	0x5577ca…
10-21 06:59:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	SELL	29	99¢	$28	0xd13a59…
10-21 06:42:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	29	50¢	$14	0x8ef6d0…
10-18 21:06:20	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	270	21¢	$57	0xb8ab3b…
10-18 21:00:48	Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-10-18?	Yes	SELL	59	100¢	$59	0x90c4a5…
10-18 18:12:08	Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-10-18?	Yes	BUY	59	50¢	$30	0xcba650…
10-18 14:40:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x2816a7…
10-18 14:39:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xa49ef9…
10-18 14:33:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xde570a…
10-18 14:32:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	SELL	31	10¢	$3	0xc7e103…
10-18 14:29:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	31	53¢	$17	0xb641eb…
10-18 10:00:59	Exact Score: Wuhan San Zhen FC 2 - 1 Shanghai Shenhua FC?	Yes	BUY	229	6¢	$14	0x6290a4…
10-16 11:44:55	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 11:45 UTC	Up	BUY	143	49¢	$70	0xa1494f…
10-16 11:44:37	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 11:45 UTC	Up	BUY	55	47¢	$26	0x9b275e…
10-15 21:23:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	31	51¢	$16	0x3d28ad…
10-15 21:21:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x50337d…
10-15 21:19:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0xfab680…
10-15 21:19:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	SELL	33	99¢	$32	0x587a39…
10-15 21:16:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	24	47¢	$11	0xb8142e…
10-15 21:15:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x33c4c5…
10-15 21:15:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0x1d29c3…
10-15 21:10:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	17	52¢	$9	0x2dbcfe…
10-15 21:07:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x09c9ab…
10-15 21:04:20	Will Ferencvárosi TC win on 2026-10-15?	Yes	SELL	197	100¢	$197	0x05a0cb…
10-15 16:06:17	Will Ferencvárosi TC win on 2026-10-15?	Yes	BUY	160	50¢	$80	0x41a397…
10-15 15:44:47	Will Ferencvárosi TC win on 2026-10-15?	Yes	BUY	37	50¢	$18	0x62884f…
10-15 07:14:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 07:15 UTC	Down	BUY	25	50¢	$13	0x8279d6…
10-14 18:14:45	Exact Score: Manchester City FC 2 - 2 Paris Saint-Germain FC?	Yes	BUY	363	8¢	$29	0xeee560…
10-12 20:23:44	Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2026-10-12?	Yes	BUY	195	30¢	$58	0x2da098…
10-12 13:19:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	188	29¢	$55	0xb9ccdc…
10-12 13:19:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	SELL	48	99¢	$48	0x94fa08…
10-12 13:12:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	48	50¢	$24	0xc56e79…
10-12 13:10:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x488e66…
10-12 11:15:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	34	53¢	$18	0x8ed1f5…
10-11 20:20:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	24	53¢	$13	0xcf4193…
10-11 19:44:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	13	51¢	$7	0x4c525a…
10-11 11:37:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	18	37¢	$7	0x4686d8…
10-11 09:10:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	32	41¢	$13	0x2861f2…
10-11 09:02:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x02f998…
10-11 09:01:39	Exact Score: Liverpool FC 4 - 2 Manchester City FC?	Yes	BUY	250	1¢	$3	0xbc13e1…
10-10 21:53:40	Exact Score: Liverpool FC 4 - 2 Manchester City FC?	Yes	BUY	797	2¢	$12	0x097311…
10-10 21:15:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	29	63¢	$18	0x48818c…
10-10 21:15:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0x4da35d…
10-10 21:08:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	19	51¢	$10	0x972c6e…
10-10 20:53:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0x73d768…
10-10 20:13:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	26	51¢	$13	0xaed7bc…
10-10 19:01:01	Exact Score: FC Lorient 2 - 1 Paris FC?	Yes	BUY	24	6¢	$1	0x5a63b9…
10-10 18:56:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	55	50¢	$27	0x4a4c77…
10-10 18:50:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	78	50¢	$39	0xe7a4cf…
10-10 18:46:58	Exact Score: FC Lorient 2 - 1 Paris FC?	Yes	BUY	143	7¢	$10	0x4d6e7a…
10-10 18:44:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	SELL	80	100¢	$79	0x98a82f…
10-10 18:30:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	80	55¢	$44	0x85e213…
10-10 18:29:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	SELL	34	99¢	$34	0x208133…
10-10 18:24:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x07b9dc…
10-10 18:23:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xe13d3a…
10-10 17:20:57	Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-10-10?	Yes	BUY	109	24¢	$26	0x930a22…
10-05 12:34:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 12:35 UTC	Up	BUY	13	51¢	$6	0xa1b7e1…
10-04 16:45:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	11	60¢	$7	0x2ef3e9…
10-01 12:24:48	Exact Score: Hungary 3 - 0 Georgia?	Yes	BUY	37	4¢	$2	0xab830d…
10-01 12:20:42	Exact Score: Hungary 3 - 1 Georgia?	Yes	BUY	569	5¢	$28	0xe9fb02…
10-01 12:20:42	Exact Score: Hungary 3 - 1 Georgia?	Yes	BUY	8	5¢	$0	0x110a4f…
10-01 12:19:45	Exact Score: Hungary 3 - 1 Georgia?	Yes	BUY	320	5¢	$16	0x4b9832…
10-01 12:19:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x096422…
08-06 09:56:38	bitcoin up or down august 6 2026 6am et	Up	BUY	201	51¢	$103	0x4a984a…
08-06 09:56:15	bitcoin up or down august 6 2026 5am et	Down	SELL	107	100¢	$106	0xf92aa1…
08-06 08:56:38	bitcoin up or down august 6 2026 5am et	Down	BUY	107	54¢	$58	0xa34b59…
08-05 17:14:30	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-05 17:15 UTC	Down	BUY	94	49¢	$46	0x50868c…
08-05 17:14:12	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-05 17:00 UTC	Down	SELL	48	99¢	$48	0xd46fed…
08-05 16:51:35	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-05 17:00 UTC	Down	BUY	48	51¢	$25	0x9574b1…
08-05 16:17:26	bitcoin up or down august 5 2026 12pm et	Down	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x6070c9…
08-05 16:16:02	bitcoin up or down august 5 2026 12pm et	Down	BUY	55	20¢	$11	0x6d7129…
08-05 11:29:05	bitcoin up or down on august 5 2026	Up	BUY	42	46¢	$19	0x96002e…
08-02 19:11:26	Exact Score: Liverpool FC 3 - 1 Leeds United?	Yes	BUY	220	7¢	$15	0x3c7797…
08-02 19:08:06	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on August 4?	Yes	SELL	132	13¢	$17	0x620b26…
08-02 15:59:27	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-02 16:00 UTC	Down	BUY	71	56¢	$40	0xad15a0…
08-02 15:02:57	bitcoin up or down august 2 2026 11am et	Down	BUY	70	43¢	$30	0xa75f9d…
08-01 16:58:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 17:00 UTC	Down	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x02a720…
08-01 15:30:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 15:30 UTC	Up	BUY	59	55¢	$32	0xa51a5a…
08-01 15:29:59	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on August 4?	Yes	BUY	132	23¢	$30	0x777064…
08-01 15:20:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 15:20 UTC	Down	BUY	65	48¢	$31	0x924d94…
08-01 15:19:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 15:15 UTC	Down	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0x24b831…
08-01 15:13:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 15:15 UTC	Down	BUY	32	51¢	$16	0x65c7cf…
08-01 15:06:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 15:05 UTC	Down	BUY	17	63¢	$11	0xfaaac0…
08-01 15:00:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 15:00 UTC	Down	BUY	11	51¢	$6	0xc59f29…
08-01 12:35:27	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-01 12:30 UTC	Up	BUY	158	42¢	$67	0xddf3a0…
07-31 12:00:26	bitcoin up or down july 31 2026 8am et	Up	BUY	112	51¢	$57	0x011bd3…
07-30 20:06:30	bitcoin up or down july 30 2026 4pm et	Up	BUY	88	69¢	$61	0x35807b…
07-30 19:49:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 19:50 UTC	Up	BUY	62	51¢	$32	0x07a303…
07-30 19:30:29	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-30 19:30 UTC	Down	BUY	33	56¢	$18	0x56f09d…
07-30 19:22:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 19:25 UTC	Down	BUY	37	50¢	$18	0x9a8a8d…
07-30 19:20:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 19:15 UTC	Up	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0xa0b433…
07-30 19:14:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 19:15 UTC	Up	BUY	19	50¢	$10	0xc447eb…
07-30 09:38:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 09:35 UTC	Up	BUY	43	49¢	$21	0xb977a6…
07-30 09:19:39	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-30 09:15 UTC	Up	BUY	51	52¢	$27	0x4751e6…
07-30 09:00:38	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-30 09:00 UTC	Up	BUY	27	47¢	$13	0xc935f9…
07-30 09:00:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 08:55 UTC	Up	SELL	14	99¢	$13	0x409893…
07-30 08:57:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 08:55 UTC	Up	BUY	14	51¢	$7	0x7d7014…