Monstrous-Thumb — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$143

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

94.0%

Resolved

Trades

126

lifetime

Volume

$49.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$396

Open exposure

$773

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-21

last 11-07 16:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 25 days

Categories

Crypto

49% 96% +$41

Politics

24% 100% +$99

Other

19% 96% -$16

Sports

8% 100% +$19

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

16 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No		+715	$698	98¢	$698	+$0	11-07 16:58
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No		+79	$75	95¢	$75	$0	11-06 02:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April?	2	$4.0K	2,018	2,017	+1	No	+$12	04-26 14:59
Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?	2	$3.9K	1,940	1,940	+0	No	+$16	09-21 13:33
Will Predict.fun launch a token by March 31, 2027?	3	$3.6K	1,855	1,855	+0	open	—	10-29 21:01
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	4	$2.7K	2,060	695	+1,365	No	+$24	06-30 13:35
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	9	$2.4K	1,543	837	+706	Yes	-$17	05-07 20:17
iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	8	$2.1K	2,144	0	+2,144	No	+$44	08-08 09:42
will xrp dip to 0pt6 in july 2026	3	$2.1K	1,351	735	+616	No	+$7	07-28 17:52
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$2.1K	2,080	0	+2,080	No	+$17	07-05 11:06
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$2.1K	2,060	0	+2,060	No	+$2	07-04 18:26
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April?	2	$2.0K	2,021	0	+2,021	No	+$7	04-26 14:59
USD.AI FDV above $3B one day after launch?	1	$2.0K	2,002	0	+2,002	No	+$2	04-21 20:12
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch?	1	$2.0K	1,980	0	+1,980	Yes	+$2	05-05 19:28
Iran leadership change by September 30?	1	$1.9K	1,945	0	+1,945	No	+$6	09-27 11:18
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	7	$1.8K	1,771	0	+1,771	No	+$4	05-05 07:42
will ethereum dip to 900 in july 2026 757	5	$1.7K	862	862	+0	No	+$2	07-20 21:50
iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	4	$1.5K	1,485	0	+1,485	No	+$10	07-28 17:55
will bitcoin dip to 40k in july 2026 457	3	$1.3K	657	657	+0	No	+$3	07-28 17:53
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 14?	2	$1.2K	605	605	+0	Yes	+$2	05-14 15:08
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	1	$939	957	0	+957	No	+$18	05-14 17:13
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?	3	$698	715	0	+715	open	—	11-07 16:58
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	2	$678	345	345	+0	open	—	10-29 21:25
Will Zelenskyy post 160-179 posts from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	2	$678	680	0	+680	No	+$1	09-03 16:48
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	2	$650	654	0	+654	No	+$3	09-02 08:52
Will XRP dip to $0.70 May 4-10?	1	$437	438	0	+438	No	+$1	05-08 07:28
Will Tread launch a token by June 30, 2026?	2	$395	396	0	+396	No	+$1	06-30 13:36
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	1	$342	342	0	+342	No	+$0	05-07 13:33
Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	2	$316	200	200	+0	No	-$48	10-26 08:17
Over $8M committed to the Printr public sale?	1	$303	305	0	+305	No	+$2	05-24 09:23
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 14?	2	$299	150	150	+0	No	+$0	05-14 15:32
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026?	3	$299	301	0	+301	No	+$2	06-23 22:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-07 16:58:40	Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	250	98¢	$244	0x2a101c…
11-07 16:58:33	Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	365	97¢	$356	0x60ac77…
11-07 16:58:22	Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0xea3ec8…
11-06 02:44:36	Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x1da39f…
11-05 18:09:15	Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	77	95¢	$73	0xfbf9ca…
10-29 21:25:13	Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	345	99¢	$341	0xe48397…
10-29 21:01:42	Will Predict.fun launch a token by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,855	100¢	$1,847	0xe332e2…
10-26 08:17:54	Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	345	98¢	$337	0xbee102…
10-26 08:17:27	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	67¢	$134	0x45bc50…
10-25 14:20:59	Will Predict.fun launch a token by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,274	98¢	$1,247	0x61b659…
10-24 21:33:12	Will Predict.fun launch a token by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	581	94¢	$546	0xd1ce49…
10-24 21:33:05	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	91¢	$182	0x385f59…
09-27 11:18:38	Iran leadership change by September 30?	No	BUY	1,945	100¢	$1,939	0x63ec0b…
09-21 13:33:14	Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,940	100¢	$1,938	0xf912ff…
09-15 21:45:22	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?	No	BUY	107	97¢	$104	0xdb3ff2…
09-09 14:32:00	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting?	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x4faef5…
09-06 08:58:55	Ethos FDV above $12M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x7e41ae…
09-05 10:18:43	Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,940	99¢	$1,923	0x9e938c…
09-04 15:29:36	Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x82f5a1…
09-04 15:29:19	Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	No	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0x825a6f…
09-04 15:29:00	Will CZ post 20-39 posts from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0xf56846…
09-03 16:50:15	Ethos FDV above $12M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0x6471c6…
09-03 16:50:10	Ethos FDV above $12M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	90	94¢	$85	0x269470…
09-03 16:50:06	Ethos FDV above $12M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	6	92¢	$6	0x776a76…
09-03 16:49:58	Ethos FDV above $12M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	21	90¢	$19	0xee1a80…
09-03 16:48:55	Will Zelenskyy post 160-179 posts from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xebd408…
09-03 16:48:48	Will Zelenskyy post 180-199 posts from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	No	BUY	298	100¢	$298	0x26d5a0…
09-02 08:53:52	Will Zelenskyy post 160-179 posts from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	No	BUY	580	100¢	$579	0xa88fe9…
09-02 08:53:36	Will Zelenskyy post 140-159 posts from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	No	BUY	103	100¢	$102	0x188929…
09-02 08:52:40	Will CZ post 60-79 posts from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	No	BUY	575	100¢	$572	0x940181…
09-02 08:52:31	Will CZ post 60-79 posts from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	No	BUY	79	99¢	$78	0x9f39b3…
09-02 08:51:06	Will Khamenei post 50-54 posts from September 1 to September 8, 2026?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x0d944a…
09-02 08:50:39	Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0xf10477…
08-08 09:42:30	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	No	BUY	12	96¢	$12	0xd7a858…
08-05 03:12:26	iran leadership change by august 31 669	No	BUY	310	97¢	$301	0xb11ba8…
08-04 19:42:41	iran leadership change by august 31 669	No	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0x657bbe…
08-04 19:42:20	iran leadership change by august 31 669	No	BUY	1,000	98¢	$982	0x4e0800…
08-04 19:42:14	iran leadership change by august 31 669	No	BUY	350	98¢	$343	0x1477f1…
08-04 19:42:09	iran leadership change by august 31 669	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xf41bd8…
08-04 19:42:05	iran leadership change by august 31 669	No	BUY	350	98¢	$343	0x348a86…
08-04 19:42:00	iran leadership change by august 31 669	No	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x2e88e6…
07-28 17:55:22	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	410	100¢	$408	0x7c7afa…
07-28 17:53:35	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	480	99¢	$478	0xd0e132…
07-28 17:53:11	will bitcoin dip to 40k in july 2026 457	No	SELL	152	100¢	$152	0x4cfed5…
07-28 17:52:50	will xrp dip to 0pt6 in july 2026	No	SELL	735	100¢	$734	0xb9f57b…
07-26 10:57:01	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	393	99¢	$390	0x9ad2d0…
07-26 10:56:40	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	202	99¢	$200	0x35f363…
07-26 10:56:06	will ethereum dip to 1200 in july 2026 853	No	SELL	85	100¢	$85	0xea09a6…
07-26 10:55:48	will bitcoin dip to 40k in july 2026 457	No	SELL	505	100¢	$505	0xe84790…
07-24 14:45:55	will xrp dip to 0pt6 in july 2026	No	BUY	864	100¢	$860	0x6c7096…
07-20 21:50:25	will ethereum dip to 900 in july 2026 757	No	SELL	836	100¢	$835	0x235428…
07-20 20:51:04	will ethereum dip to 900 in july 2026 757	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xb9a68a…
07-20 20:43:52	will ethereum dip to 900 in july 2026 757	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x656a16…
07-20 20:35:51	will ethereum dip to 900 in july 2026 757	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0xb97242…
07-14 21:23:34	will bitcoin dip to 40k in july 2026 457	No	BUY	657	100¢	$654	0x7bfdb6…
07-14 21:23:05	will xrp dip to 0pt6 in july 2026	No	BUY	487	99¢	$483	0xa8be99…
07-14 21:22:13	will ethereum dip to 1200 in july 2026 853	No	BUY	85	99¢	$84	0xde308c…
07-14 21:21:53	will ethereum dip to 900 in july 2026 757	No	BUY	862	100¢	$859	0xdc0c36…
07-05 11:06:40	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2,080	99¢	$2,063	0x255ecb…
07-04 18:26:01	Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2,060	100¢	$2,058	0x96173f…
06-30 13:36:49	Will Tread launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	387	100¢	$386	0x3d8822…
06-30 13:36:16	Will Tread launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xd6855e…
06-30 13:35:56	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	395	100¢	$394	0x5bb41a…
06-23 22:25:08	Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x3e4648…
06-23 22:24:37	Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026?	No	BUY	256	99¢	$255	0x2a14c1…
06-23 22:24:31	Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026?	No	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x091fd3…
06-23 04:55:34	Arcium FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	299	100¢	$298	0x4d9cae…
06-23 04:54:58	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	300	100¢	$299	0xeac5dc…
06-02 21:11:15	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	310	99¢	$306	0xb125d2…
05-24 09:23:20	Over $8M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	BUY	305	100¢	$303	0x7755fb…
05-20 09:33:36	Will Khamenei post 40-44 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	118	100¢	$118	0x1476de…
05-18 13:40:03	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	1,750	99¢	$1,727	0x293c5b…
05-18 13:27:41	Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xafdb0e…
05-18 13:27:34	Will Khamenei post 60+ posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	136	100¢	$136	0x4e946f…
05-18 13:27:27	Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x3f7a30…
05-18 13:27:15	Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	116	100¢	$116	0xf7ebd9…
05-14 21:11:48	Will CZ post 40-59 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xbec526…
05-14 17:13:32	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	957	98¢	$939	0x8e04ba…
05-14 17:11:09	Will CZ post 20-39 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x6c5666…
05-14 17:09:38	Will CZ post 20-39 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	No	BUY	242	100¢	$242	0x836a07…
05-14 15:32:32	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 14?	No	SELL	150	100¢	$150	0xff8019…
05-14 15:08:48	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 14?	Yes	SELL	605	100¢	$604	0x25e4a1…
05-14 14:44:21	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	605	99¢	$601	0x87ebe1…
05-14 14:43:34	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 14?	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x5f9338…
05-09 09:40:07	Will CZ post 160-179 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	61	100¢	$61	0x9ae41a…
05-09 09:39:55	Will CZ post 160-179 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	41	100¢	$40	0x784bc5…
05-09 09:39:46	Will CZ post 160-179 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xa48f23…
05-08 20:04:56	Will CZ post 100-119 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	No	BUY	126	100¢	$126	0xf3a5c1…
05-08 20:04:37	Will CZ post 120-139 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x825b4d…
05-08 07:28:22	Will XRP dip to $0.70 May 4-10?	No	BUY	438	100¢	$437	0xf10272…
05-08 07:08:32	Will CZ post 140-159 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	No	BUY	97	100¢	$97	0x60c67f…
05-08 07:07:57	Will Khamenei post 25-29 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	205	100¢	$205	0xcb210b…
05-08 07:07:50	Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	61	100¢	$61	0xbfe416…
05-08 07:07:41	Will Khamenei post 35-39 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xb89fde…
05-07 20:17:18	Will CZ post 20-39 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	66	97¢	$64	0x5ebd97…
05-07 20:10:34	Will CZ post 20-39 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	771	97¢	$751	0x93b14e…
05-07 13:38:16	Will Khamenei post 35-39 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	68	100¢	$68	0xcb9016…
05-07 13:37:45	Will Khamenei post 25-29 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0x2991ac…
05-07 13:37:05	Will CZ post 20-39 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	450	100¢	$449	0x5faccb…
05-07 13:36:23	Will CZ post 20-39 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xac251d…