Ultimate-Waterfall — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$79.6K

Unrealized P&L

-$26

Hit rate

58.1%

Resolved

1,515

Trades

3,713

lifetime

Volume

$865.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$233

Open exposure

$996

11 positions

First seen

2026-02-11

last 11-01 16:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 209 days

Categories

Sports

55% 50% -$40,565

Other

44% 54% -$38,996

Crypto

0% 48% -$56

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$70

Politics

0% 50% -$8

Tech

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 222 trades/day

Open positions (11) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Spread: Commanders (-5.5)	Commanders	+566	$300	52¢	$297	-$3	10-31 00:37
Utah vs. Flyers	Utah	+317	$200	62¢	$198	-$2	11-01 16:28
Falcons vs. Buccaneers	Buccaneers	+268	$150	55¢	$146	-$4	11-01 14:48
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A	B8	+263	$100	40¢	$104	+$4	11-01 14:54
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	+100	$72	70¢	$70	-$2	10-03 05:41
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?	No	+100	$70	70¢	$70	$0	10-22 01:49
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+50	$42	90¢	$45	+$3	10-02 13:50
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?	Yes	+100	$45	30¢	$30	-$14	10-22 01:50
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	+100	$29	30¢	$30	+$1	10-03 10:32
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	+50	$10	10¢	$5	-$5	10-03 01:23
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+0	$4	42¢	$0	-$4	08-31 01:32

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
lal bil bar 2026 03 08 bar	2	$26.9K	16,921	16,921	+0	Yes	+$6,921	03-08 00:02
Madrid Open: Martin Damm vs Jakub Mensik	2	$23.7K	14,411	14,302	+108	Jakub Mensik	+$2,184	04-25 11:47
cbb vcu ncar 2026 03 19	2	$23.4K	40,419	0	+40,419	VCU Rams	-$23,443	03-19 22:48
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners	2	$21.4K	14,154	14,154	+0	Philadelphia Phillies	+$5,499	08-26 20:43
Spread: Rockets (-5.5)	2	$21.0K	36,305	35,814	+490	Rockets	-$18,952	04-27 03:21
dfb stu scf 2026 04 23 total 1pt5	2	$20.5K	11,220	11,168	+52	Over	+$1,624	04-23 20:25
mlb nym chc 2026 04 17	2	$16.8K	11,666	11,522	+143	Chicago Cubs	+$3,181	04-17 18:38
wnba ind atl 2026 08 16	2	$15.8K	12,841	12,841	+0	Indiana Fever	+$2,446	08-16 21:42
wta lys svitoli 2026 04 15	2	$12.7K	7,089	7,053	+37	Elina Svitolina	+$1,038	04-15 20:18
Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals	1	$12.5K	12,999	0	+12,999	Kansas City Royals	-$12,500	04-27 00:39
atp munar jodar 2026 04 13	2	$11.9K	6,960	6,902	+59	Rafael Jodar	+$1,951	04-13 18:20
mlb phi min 2026 08 15	2	$11.0K	9,091	9,091	+0	Philadelphia Phillies	+$1,000	08-16 00:16
nhl wsh buf 2026 03 12	2	$10.4K	14,930	14,605	+325	Capitals	-$9,559	03-13 01:27
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FURIA (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Group B	4	$10.2K	8,819	8,819	+0	FURIA	-$173	10-15 18:44
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	1	$10.2K	12,087	0	+12,087	No	-$10,153	06-23 19:59
Broncos vs. 49ers	2	$10.0K	8,475	8,475	+0	49ers	+$0	10-04 17:48
wta bondar cirstea 2026 04 17	2	$9.9K	6,961	6,909	+53	Sorana Cirstea	-$434	04-17 18:19
mex tig que 2026 03 13 tig	1	$8.5K	12,107	0	+12,107	No	-$8,500	03-15 22:45
nba cha bos 2026 04 07	2	$8.4K	7,796	7,712	+84	Celtics	-$1,472	04-08 01:22
mlb atl min 2026 08 18	1	$6.9K	11,951	0	+11,951	Minnesota Twins	-$6,876	08-18 21:59
mlb ari stl 2026 06 25	4	$6.8K	5,660	5,660	+0	Arizona Diamondbacks	+$830	07-23 21:37
nhl col sea 2026 03 12	1	$6.6K	9,987	0	+9,987	Avalanche	+$3,399	03-13 01:28
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Dellien vs Valentin Royer	4	$5.7K	7,012	7,012	+0	Valentin Royer	-$1,305	05-24 19:08
nba cle orl 2026 03 11	6	$5.4K	4,884	4,368	+517	Magic	-$410	03-12 01:03
mlb tex hou 2026 07 31	2	$5.2K	3,704	3,704	+0	Houston Astros	+$1,222	08-01 00:58
ucl psg1 cfc1 2026 03 11 total 2pt5	2	$5.2K	3,175	3,175	+0	Over	+$1,171	03-11 20:48
Set Handicap: Mboko (-1.5) vs Navarro (+1.5)	4	$5.1K	3,204	3,204	+0	Navarro	+$1,301	05-23 15:05
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians	2	$5.0K	3,571	3,571	+0	Toronto Blue Jays	+$1,000	09-02 23:10
Panthers vs. Falcons	3	$4.9K	3,600	3,600	+0	Panthers	+$830	09-20 17:40
Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers	2	$4.9K	3,636	3,636	+0	Texas Rangers	+$909	09-16 00:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 16:28:22	Utah vs. Flyers	Utah	BUY	317	63¢	$200	0x1e1945…
11-01 15:49:15	Will SS Lazio vs. Cagliari Calcio end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	33	8¢	$3	0xbf460a…
11-01 15:37:55	Will SS Lazio vs. Cagliari Calcio end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	33	61¢	$20	0xe339f4…
11-01 15:23:34	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) - PARI Universe Playoffs	Team Yandex	SELL	77	19¢	$15	0xc6b3a1…
11-01 15:05:39	Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs BARCA (BO3) - FiReSPORTS Last Chance Playoffs	Wildcard	BUY	83	60¢	$50	0x62a895…
11-01 14:54:06	Counter-Strike: Heroic vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A	B8	BUY	132	38¢	$50	0x72500c…
11-01 14:48:30	Falcons vs. Buccaneers	Buccaneers	BUY	268	56¢	$150	0x1fd70f…
11-01 14:33:18	Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs BESTIA (BO3) - FiReSPORTS Last Chance Playoffs	100 Thieves	SELL	125	89¢	$112	0x6208f8…
11-01 14:33:10	Counter-Strike: HOTU vs 1WIN (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games Playoffs	1WIN	SELL	200	92¢	$184	0xc6ad13…
11-01 14:24:06	Counter-Strike: Heroic vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A	B8	BUY	132	38¢	$50	0xf20783…
11-01 12:08:43	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) - PARI Universe Playoffs	Team Yandex	BUY	77	65¢	$50	0x6c759d…
11-01 10:08:04	Counter-Strike: HOTU vs 1WIN (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games Playoffs	1WIN	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x1c3204…
11-01 10:00:04	Counter-Strike: HOTU vs 1WIN (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games Playoffs	1WIN	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x559978…
11-01 08:54:04	Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs BESTIA (BO3) - FiReSPORTS Last Chance Playoffs	100 Thieves	BUY	62	80¢	$50	0xe613be…
11-01 08:40:06	Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs BESTIA (BO3) - FiReSPORTS Last Chance Playoffs	100 Thieves	BUY	62	80¢	$50	0xd4774d…
11-01 06:24:04	Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs Phantom (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #12 Playoffs	Phantom	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0xee9db0…
11-01 06:08:04	Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs Phantom (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #12 Playoffs	Phantom	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0xa842c6…
10-31 19:54:18	Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-10-31?	No	BUY	192	52¢	$100	0xc71d12…
10-31 19:54:01	UFC Fight Night: Ode' Osbourne vs. Cody Durden (Flyweight, Main Card)	Cody Durden	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0x498392…
10-31 19:54:00	UFC Fight Night: Yana Santos vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Main Card)	Luana Santos	BUY	27	75¢	$20	0x3edacb…
10-31 19:53:58	UFC Fight Night: Julian Erosa vs. JeongYeong Lee (Featherweight, Prelims)	JeongYeong Lee	BUY	34	59¢	$20	0x90a66b…
10-31 19:32:48	UFC Fight Night: Piera Rodriguez vs. Talita Alencar (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)	Piera Rodriguez	BUY	69	72¢	$50	0xc3a8f4…
10-31 19:32:46	UFC Fight Night: Dakota Hope vs. Francis Marshall (Featherweight, Main Card)	Francis Marshall	BUY	76	66¢	$50	0x7a1140…
10-31 19:32:46	UFC Fight Night: Randy Brown vs. Jacobe Smith (Welterweight, Main Card)	Jacobe Smith	BUY	70	71¢	$50	0x692e53…
10-31 18:54:34	Spread: Notre Dame (-27.5)	Notre Dame	SELL	328	14¢	$46	0x2eff5c…
10-31 16:43:55	AFC Bournemouth vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5	Over	SELL	189	3¢	$6	0x82a328…
10-31 15:57:04	Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	SELL	98	70¢	$68	0x32121e…
10-31 14:53:37	Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	98	41¢	$40	0x0e1964…
10-31 14:51:42	Map Handicap: 1WIN (-1.5) vs 5star (+1.5)	1WIN	SELL	139	100¢	$139	0x6db481…
10-31 14:51:36	Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs 5star (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games Playoffs	1WIN	SELL	110	100¢	$110	0x8527b8…
10-31 14:26:03	Washington State vs. San Diego State: O/U 45.5	Over	BUY	86	58¢	$50	0x55e7e7…
10-31 14:25:00	Spread: Indiana (-17.5)	Indiana	BUY	167	60¢	$100	0x82818c…
10-31 14:03:24	AFC Bournemouth vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	189	53¢	$100	0x59993c…
10-31 14:02:25	Spread: Notre Dame (-27.5)	Notre Dame	BUY	328	61¢	$200	0x76c090…
10-31 14:00:46	Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-31?	No	SELL	96	0¢	$0	0xcb4aa4…
10-31 13:40:04	Map Handicap: JJH (-1.5) vs BASEMENT BOYS (+1.5)	JiJieHao	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x16508a…
10-31 11:57:00	Counter-Strike: HOTU vs The Huns Esports (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games Playoffs	HOTU	SELL	108	100¢	$107	0x54d454…
10-31 11:56:46	Map Handicap: HOTU (-1.5) vs The Huns Esports (+1.5)	HOTU	SELL	135	100¢	$135	0xca94b0…
10-31 10:40:06	Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs BASEMENT BOYS (BO3) - Circuito Retake Playoffs	JiJieHao	BUY	65	77¢	$50	0x5e7334…
10-31 10:38:06	Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs BASEMENT BOYS (BO3) - Circuito Retake Playoffs	JiJieHao	BUY	65	77¢	$50	0xdb989d…
10-31 08:54:06	Counter-Strike: Galorys vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - FiReSPORTS Last Chance Group B	Galorys	BUY	68	74¢	$50	0x43efd2…
10-31 05:14:04	Map Handicap: 1WIN (-1.5) vs 5star (+1.5)	1WIN	BUY	69	72¢	$50	0xf772c8…
10-31 05:02:07	Counter-Strike: HOTU vs The Huns Esports (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games Playoffs	HOTU	BUY	54	93¢	$50	0xa0e44a…
10-31 05:02:07	Map Handicap: HOTU (-1.5) vs The Huns Esports (+1.5)	HOTU	BUY	68	74¢	$50	0x77264f…
10-31 05:02:06	Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs 5star (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games Playoffs	1WIN	BUY	55	91¢	$50	0xd995e0…
10-31 05:00:10	Map Handicap: 1WIN (-1.5) vs 5star (+1.5)	1WIN	BUY	69	72¢	$50	0xf239a1…
10-31 05:00:09	Map Handicap: HOTU (-1.5) vs The Huns Esports (+1.5)	HOTU	BUY	68	74¢	$50	0x082054…
10-31 05:00:07	Counter-Strike: HOTU vs The Huns Esports (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games Playoffs	HOTU	BUY	54	93¢	$50	0xfffc3e…
10-31 05:00:06	Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs 5star (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games Playoffs	1WIN	BUY	55	91¢	$50	0xa034c3…
10-31 02:59:25	Brandin Podziemski: Points O/U 14.5	Yes	SELL	88	24¢	$21	0x210dff…
10-31 01:53:27	Atlético San Luis vs. Atlas FC: O/U 2.5	Over	SELL	130	22¢	$29	0xb435ec…
10-31 00:47:42	Atlético San Luis vs. Atlas FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	86	58¢	$50	0x65b39b…
10-31 00:46:13	CA Sarmiento vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 2.5	Over	SELL	50	85¢	$42	0x29e623…
10-31 00:39:36	Brandin Podziemski: Points O/U 14.5	Yes	BUY	88	57¢	$50	0x935d1a…
10-31 00:37:07	Spread: Commanders (-5.5)	Commanders	BUY	566	53¢	$300	0x93d33d…
10-31 00:32:58	Baylor vs. UCF	Baylor	SELL	278	84¢	$233	0xa0b752…
10-31 00:28:55	Knicks vs. 76ers	Knicks	SELL	278	29¢	$81	0xbdf6bd…
10-30 22:56:22	Olympiacos B.C. vs. Olimpia Milano	Olympiacos B.C.	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x6c7f20…
10-30 22:51:01	Devils vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5	Over	SELL	178	93¢	$165	0x4affde…
10-30 21:48:03	Devils vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5	Over	BUY	178	56¢	$100	0xc3ae0b…
10-30 21:25:13	CA Sarmiento vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x023396…
10-30 21:25:12	Atlético San Luis vs. Atlas FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	44	57¢	$25	0x137122…
10-30 21:21:48	Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-31?	No	BUY	96	52¢	$50	0xeb5c7c…
10-30 19:58:40	Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-10-30?	No	SELL	185	88¢	$163	0x82c701…
10-30 19:36:16	Swiss Indoors Basel: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nuno Borges	Nuno Borges	SELL	65	3¢	$2	0xc6bb23…
10-30 19:25:54	Game Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs LOS (+1.5)	Team Liquid	BUY	91	55¢	$50	0xe3c4f1…
10-30 19:04:40	Spread: Virtus Bologna (-2.5)	Virtus Bologna	BUY	34	58¢	$20	0x313f8c…
10-30 19:04:39	Olympiacos B.C. vs. Olimpia Milano	Olympiacos B.C.	BUY	26	77¢	$20	0x0c904a…
10-30 17:24:52	UFC Fight Night: Dakota Hope vs. Francis Marshall (Featherweight, Main Card)	Francis Marshall	BUY	45	66¢	$30	0x8f9bf5…
10-30 17:24:46	Swiss Indoors Basel: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nuno Borges	Nuno Borges	BUY	65	46¢	$30	0x0e571b…
10-30 17:24:45	Curitiba: Francesca Jones vs Nauhany Leme Da Silva	Francesca Jones	BUY	42	72¢	$30	0xb51c34…
10-30 15:43:55	Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-10-30?	No	BUY	185	54¢	$100	0xa0feed…
10-30 14:11:49	Baylor vs. UCF	Baylor	BUY	278	54¢	$150	0x1fb353…
10-30 13:19:21	Knicks vs. 76ers	Knicks	BUY	278	54¢	$150	0xa31f3b…
10-30 12:43:28	Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Vitality (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Playoffs	Nemiga	SELL	588	35¢	$206	0xcd95c2…
10-30 12:42:49	Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Nemiga (+1.5)	Nemiga	SELL	233	87¢	$203	0xbd1f46…
10-30 12:42:31	Brisbane Roar FC vs. Auckland FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	SELL	86	100¢	$86	0x6f523e…
10-30 12:41:58	Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs	MIBR	BUY	164	61¢	$100	0x244827…
10-30 11:16:06	Counter-Strike: Low Cortisol vs ALKA (BO3) - Gamers Club Masters Group A	Low Cortisol	BUY	71	70¢	$50	0x715142…
10-30 10:46:06	Counter-Strike: Imperial vs paiN (BO3) - Gamers Club Masters Group B	Imperial	BUY	69	72¢	$50	0xe9221f…
10-30 09:24:06	Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Nemiga (+1.5)	Nemiga	BUY	116	43¢	$50	0x95cc53…
10-30 08:56:04	Counter-Strike: Low Cortisol vs ALKA (BO3) - Gamers Club Masters Group A	Low Cortisol	BUY	74	68¢	$50	0xcb78cb…
10-30 08:54:06	Counter-Strike: Imperial vs paiN (BO3) - Gamers Club Masters Group B	Imperial	BUY	70	71¢	$50	0x44de1c…
10-30 08:16:06	Counter-Strike: QUINTESSÊNCIA vs naocopulas (BO3) - Gamers Club Masters Group B	naocopulas	BUY	67	75¢	$50	0x65e59a…
10-30 06:54:04	Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs	MIBR	BUY	82	61¢	$50	0xe2a648…
10-30 06:24:06	Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FURIA (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Playoffs	FURIA	BUY	122	41¢	$50	0x50bb7f…
10-30 06:08:06	Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Nemiga (+1.5)	Nemiga	BUY	116	43¢	$50	0x896d58…
10-30 05:40:06	Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Vitality (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Playoffs	Nemiga	BUY	294	17¢	$50	0x99b0c0…
10-30 05:40:06	Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FURIA (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Playoffs	FURIA	BUY	122	41¢	$50	0x7da8f1…
10-30 05:00:06	Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5)	FURIA	BUY	75	67¢	$50	0x511265…
10-30 04:24:06	Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Vitality (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Playoffs	Nemiga	BUY	294	17¢	$50	0x07ebc3…
10-30 03:54:06	Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5)	FURIA	BUY	74	68¢	$50	0x19bd55…
10-30 02:38:06	Counter-Strike: Alter Ego vs Abyssal (BO3) - DFRAG Invitational Playoffs	Alter Ego	BUY	55	91¢	$50	0x24a284…
10-30 01:57:36	Spread: Trail Blazers (-5.5)	Trail Blazers	BUY	85	59¢	$50	0xc28039…
10-30 01:53:28	Grêmio FBPA vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 2.5	Over	SELL	185	68¢	$126	0x4fc526…
10-30 01:40:01	Bruins vs. Blues	Bruins	SELL	102	10¢	$10	0xad2a72…
10-30 01:11:54	Brisbane Roar FC vs. Auckland FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	86	58¢	$50	0xeb8a01…
10-30 00:00:06	Spread: Packers (-4.5)	Panthers	SELL	926	54¢	$500	0x689a3e…
10-29 23:56:18	Bruins vs. Blues	Bruins	BUY	102	49¢	$50	0x2b5b60…
10-29 23:45:00	Grêmio FBPA vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	185	54¢	$100	0xab7a5b…