Hard-To-Find-Transaction — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$110

Unrealized P&L

-$42

Hit rate

74.8%

Resolved

2,975

Trades

5,055

lifetime

Volume

$24.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$165

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 10-13 20:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 179 days

Categories

Crypto

52% 53% -$153

Other

45% 69% +$107

Politics

2% 75% -$41

Sports

2% 75% -$23

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

61 active days in 12wk • peak 216 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No		+346	$205	47¢	$163	-$42	10-13 20:51
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Yes		+4	$2	60¢	$3	+$0	10-06 22:24

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	11	$883	523	523	+0	No	+$120	10-08 03:40
elon musk of tweets january 2 january 9 580plus	5	$569	3,749	2,249	+1,500	No	+$192	01-09 16:53
will silver si hit high 120 by end of february 431 947 594 173 652 316	5	$388	770	770	+0	No	+$190	01-30 10:53
nba den phx 2026 03 24 total 232pt5	3	$216	111	111	+0	Over	+$5	03-25 05:16
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	4	$205	346	0	+346	open	—	10-13 20:51
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 260 279	3	$201	153	128	+24	Yes	+$21	04-03 14:22
highest temperature in nyc on january 12 38 39f	2	$200	106	106	+0	No	+$10	01-12 17:55
highest temperature in london on january 12 10c	2	$182	95	95	+0	No	+$6	01-12 01:57
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?	2	$168	204	204	+0	Yes	-$32	10-13 20:50
highest temperature in london on january 17 10c	3	$163	91	91	+0	No	+$19	01-17 14:26
Will there be 10 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	4	$145	80	80	+0	No	+$5	10-09 21:11
highest temperature in toronto on january 17 1c	2	$143	73	73	+0	No	+$3	01-17 17:33
highest temperature in seoul on january 17 0c	2	$136	73	73	+0	No	+$10	01-16 17:25
highest temperature in miami on january 30 70 71f	5	$119	67	67	+0	No	+$15	01-31 01:50
highest temperature in seoul on january 31 1c	2	$118	63	63	+0	No	+$8	01-31 15:46
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5	2	$114	71	71	+0	Over	+$14	05-30 16:09
highest temperature in nyc on january 17 34 35f	2	$113	59	59	+0	No	+$5	01-17 11:13
Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 15?	2	$100	140	0	+140	Yes	-$100	10-10 17:55
highest temperature in nyc on january 20 22 23f	2	$98	58	58	+0	No	+$18	01-20 06:02
highest temperature in nyc on february 22 2026 34 35f	3	$96	72	72	+0	Yes	-$44	02-22 12:57
highest temperature in london on january 13 10c	3	$95	56	56	+0	No	+$15	01-13 11:18
highest temperature in nyc on january 18 32 33f	1	$92	97	0	+97	No	+$5	01-18 04:35
lib dim est 2026 04 08 total 2pt5	1	$90	160	0	+160	Under	-$90	04-09 00:15
highest temperature in seattle on january 15 50 51f	2	$89	49	49	+0	No	+$9	01-16 10:58
highest temperature in nyc on january 29 20 21f	2	$86	47	47	+0	No	+$6	01-29 18:40
highest temperature in toronto on january 31 neg 10corhigher	2	$86	46	46	+0	Yes	+$6	01-31 20:50
highest temperature in atlanta on january 14 56 57f	2	$78	40	40	+0	No	+$2	01-15 00:13
highest temperature in toronto on january 29 neg 10c	2	$74	42	42	+0	No	+$8	01-29 10:54
nba hou lal 2026 04 21 1h moneyline	2	$73	40	40	+0	Lakers	+$7	04-22 03:49
highest temperature in chicago on january 31 24 25f	1	$72	100	0	+100	Yes	-$72	01-31 21:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-13 20:51:01	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	107	61¢	$65	0x70ab2c…
10-13 20:50:22	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?	Yes	SELL	204	33¢	$68	0xea7d0d…
10-11 22:28:36	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	87	58¢	$50	0x555b6a…
10-11 10:34:06	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	136	58¢	$79	0xacb500…
10-10 17:55:58	Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 15?	No	BUY	68	73¢	$50	0x628bb8…
10-10 09:05:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x55caaa…
10-10 08:05:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x9891d3…
10-10 07:50:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x28b642…
10-10 07:25:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x870b9d…
10-10 07:20:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xa269f9…
10-10 07:05:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x3f4a0b…
10-10 03:15:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x3ec328…
10-10 02:30:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xa878e5…
10-10 01:35:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x618a2f…
10-10 00:37:38	Will Trump say "Depression" during his Midterm Rally in New York?	No	BUY	125	16¢	$20	0x026200…
10-09 22:45:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x87202b…
10-09 21:11:52	Will there be 10 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	70	92¢	$64	0x37508f…
10-09 20:32:34	Will there be 10 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0x4852d6…
10-09 20:32:34	Will there be 10 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x04b402…
10-09 11:34:18	Will Isaias make landfall in Florida as a hurricane?	No	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0xe12f47…
10-09 08:30:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	6	38¢	$2	0x558195…
10-09 06:40:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x4d0040…
10-09 05:55:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x35baca…
10-09 04:20:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x2ca978…
10-09 04:03:06	Will Trump say "Bitcoin", "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during his Midterm Rally in New York?	Yes	BUY	531	5¢	$25	0xc00393…
10-09 03:35:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	BUY	6	37¢	$2	0x9cb8e9…
10-09 02:50:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x5c9427…
10-09 01:47:56	Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	127	39¢	$50	0xfb516d…
10-09 01:44:38	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?	Yes	BUY	204	49¢	$100	0xf28547…
10-09 01:31:48	Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 31?	No	BUY	116	43¢	$50	0x029fab…
10-09 01:31:09	Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 15?	No	BUY	71	70¢	$50	0x3da937…
10-08 10:35:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x1b3c6c…
10-08 10:08:26	Will there be 10 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	80	87¢	$70	0x0bcbf8…
10-08 09:15:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xabc736…
10-08 06:35:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	BUY	6	37¢	$2	0xc095fc…
10-08 03:40:58	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	No	SELL	326	97¢	$316	0x1648db…
10-08 02:40:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x0a4ff4…
10-07 18:58:30	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	No	SELL	93	97¢	$90	0xe0a80d…
10-07 18:58:07	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	No	SELL	28	97¢	$27	0xbb694b…
10-07 18:58:07	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	No	SELL	52	97¢	$50	0xb4161d…
10-07 18:58:07	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x387935…
10-07 10:25:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xd2294f…
10-07 08:05:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xf039af…
10-07 07:05:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xb33f84…
10-07 06:20:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	BUY	6	38¢	$2	0x306aab…
10-07 06:00:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x59f4f0…
10-07 01:30:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0xfc0950…
10-07 01:15:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xdb9bd0…
10-07 00:50:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x3dc383…
10-06 23:10:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x04448a…
10-06 22:24:47	Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	40¢	$5	0x725485…
10-06 22:22:18	Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	43¢	$2	0x0f5140…
10-06 07:50:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x71f223…
10-06 07:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	11	51¢	$5	0x0b668f…
10-06 06:05:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x911ec6…
10-06 06:05:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x6eed91…
10-06 05:50:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xc9c579…
10-06 04:15:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x147d64…
10-06 03:43:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x7ccd7b…
10-06 03:40:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xb95802…
10-06 03:28:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xf82476…
10-06 03:28:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x4dc5ec…
10-06 03:00:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xc11f2b…
10-06 01:07:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	SELL	10	11¢	$1	0x89e227…
10-06 01:05:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xf93de0…
10-06 01:05:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x80de7f…
10-06 01:05:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x54ce27…
10-05 09:07:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	SELL	5	13¢	$1	0x6d2241…
10-05 09:05:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xfe8322…
10-05 08:50:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 08:50 UTC	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x61289b…
10-05 07:05:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x04a10f…
10-05 05:45:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 05:45 UTC	Down	BUY	6	37¢	$2	0xdfb7e1…
10-05 04:30:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 04:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xa09cfc…
10-05 04:10:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 04:10 UTC	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xdda14e…
10-04 16:06:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	SELL	7	44¢	$3	0x60203c…
10-04 16:05:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 16:05 UTC	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x2afebe…
10-04 16:05:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 16:05 UTC	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x7a06ad…
10-04 16:01:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	SELL	5	14¢	$1	0x4c2a92…
10-04 16:00:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xaf9136…
10-04 15:40:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 15:40 UTC	Up	SELL	4	81¢	$3	0x2340f5…
10-04 15:39:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 15:40 UTC	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x78af78…
10-04 15:38:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 15:40 UTC	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xe4d161…
10-04 15:10:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 15:10 UTC	Up	SELL	4	76¢	$3	0x1afd29…
10-04 15:09:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 15:10 UTC	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x58c297…
10-04 15:09:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 15:10 UTC	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xbaf3b0…
10-04 14:56:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 14:55 UTC	Down	SELL	6	18¢	$1	0x50088b…
10-04 14:55:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xc26722…
10-04 14:54:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xc8b69e…
10-04 14:40:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 14:40 UTC	Up	SELL	2	37¢	$1	0x527da0…
10-04 14:39:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 14:40 UTC	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xa9da74…
10-04 13:53:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 13:50 UTC	Down	SELL	2	92¢	$2	0x2fc8fa…
10-04 13:48:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 13:50 UTC	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x67260f…
10-04 13:46:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	SELL	4	74¢	$3	0xf1929e…
10-04 13:44:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 13:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xb2c92b…
10-04 13:44:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 13:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xb7fbd3…
10-04 13:26:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 13:25 UTC	Down	SELL	14	26¢	$4	0x8e791e…
10-04 13:26:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x140069…
10-04 13:25:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x41d4e1…
10-04 13:25:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x52bc9c…
10-04 13:13:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	SELL	10	70¢	$7	0x0299b4…