Optimal-Prow — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$6

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

31.3%

Resolved

Trades

280

lifetime

Volume

$12.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$44

Open exposure

$82

1 position

First seen

2026-03-18

last 06-22 09:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

61% — —

Politics

31% 67% +$6

Crypto

6% — —

Tech

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

22 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No		+85	$80	97¢	$82	+$3	06-22 09:26

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	9	$554	823	823	+0	open	—	05-10 22:36
will phan vn giang be the next president of vietnam	6	$501	259	259	+0	open	—	04-02 04:42
will l minh hng be the next prime minister of vietnam	12	$491	501	501	+0	open	—	04-04 13:56
will trn thanh mn be the next president of vietnam	9	$490	461	461	+0	open	—	03-30 12:08
will ludvig aberg win the 2026 masters tournament	7	$310	486	486	+0	open	—	04-07 04:50
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	5	$298	154	154	+0	open	—	05-12 06:02
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 320 339	3	$295	330	330	+0	open	—	03-20 00:59
israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by march 31 117 352	2	$292	150	150	+0	open	—	03-25 17:14
elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 200 219	2	$287	153	153	+0	open	—	03-27 09:09
will apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	3	$283	143	143	+0	open	—	03-28 04:11
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 180 199	2	$277	144	144	+0	open	—	03-30 23:28
will robert macintyre win the 2026 masters tournament	3	$275	472	139	+333	open	—	04-09 20:58
elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 440 459	3	$272	142	142	+0	open	—	03-20 15:06
will xander schauffele win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$271	143	143	+0	open	—	04-04 09:35
will shane lowry win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$271	137	137	+0	open	—	04-05 20:43
Iran leadership change by April 30?	6	$270	540	540	+0	open	—	04-25 22:42
will ethereum reach 2800 in march 2026	3	$266	136	136	+0	open	—	03-24 03:44
will ethereum dip to 1800 in march 2026	4	$263	141	141	+0	open	—	03-26 07:29
Will Jordan strike Iran by April 30?	5	$261	229	229	+0	open	—	04-22 08:07
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	4	$261	435	435	+0	open	—	04-30 19:47
will solana reach 120 in march 2026	3	$261	132	132	+0	open	—	03-26 15:36
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 15	2	$259	151	151	+0	open	—	04-11 19:15
Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30?	2	$256	134	134	+0	open	—	04-21 22:10
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	2	$255	135	135	+0	open	—	04-15 10:51
will la u win the third most seats in the 2026 colombian chamber of representatives election	2	$255	128	128	+0	open	—	04-14 08:56
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 200 219	5	$255	206	206	+0	open	—	04-02 20:09
will jason day win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$255	131	131	+0	open	—	04-12 18:09
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$254	129	129	+0	open	—	04-18 23:42
elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 220 239	3	$252	145	145	+0	open	—	03-27 13:21
will annual inflation increase by 2pt8 in march	3	$252	128	128	+0	open	—	03-31 11:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-22 09:26:22	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	85	94¢	$80	0x4f7226…
05-19 12:17:35	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	Yes	BUY	78	95¢	$74	0xb50ddb…
05-19 05:23:51	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	No	BUY	17	5¢	$1	0x08c80f…
05-19 05:23:49	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	No	BUY	30	5¢	$1	0xc7f144…
05-19 05:23:48	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	No	BUY	13	5¢	$1	0x95a5b9…
05-19 05:23:46	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	No	BUY	31	5¢	$1	0x66632d…
05-18 22:25:19	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	Yes	BUY	47	96¢	$45	0xa1e9f2…
05-13 06:12:12	Will Belgium be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	9¢	$1	0x0066a3…
05-13 03:44:58	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	85	97¢	$83	0x85c674…
05-13 00:39:49	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	4	97¢	$4	0xfbe3e5…
05-13 00:39:49	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	81	97¢	$78	0xccae7d…
05-12 12:02:13	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	SELL	159	5¢	$9	0x39af34…
05-12 09:26:52	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	BUY	159	5¢	$8	0x92a79e…
05-12 06:02:26	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	40	97¢	$39	0x1a6124…
05-12 04:33:36	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0xaa7f38…
05-11 23:10:45	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	50	97¢	$49	0xfa91ab…
05-11 23:10:45	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	64	97¢	$62	0xbd9f11…
05-11 17:57:18	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	114	96¢	$109	0x27c3fb…
05-10 22:36:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	SELL	140	1¢	$1	0x797694…
05-10 19:38:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	101	1¢	$1	0x144c75…
05-10 19:38:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	39	1¢	$1	0x1141ca…
05-10 17:14:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	48	4¢	$2	0xd958e0…
05-10 17:14:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	133	4¢	$6	0x930f5f…
05-10 17:14:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	63	4¢	$3	0x2f12f3…
05-10 17:14:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	63	4¢	$3	0x1b7157…
05-10 17:14:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	209	4¢	$9	0x14c7c9…
05-10 15:21:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	516	4¢	$22	0x1430ad…
05-10 06:38:38	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	152	4¢	$6	0x6f72a7…
05-10 05:17:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	110	4¢	$4	0x438062…
05-10 05:17:43	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	4¢	$2	0x698964…
05-09 19:28:09	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	288	4¢	$10	0x7910d5…
05-09 19:28:09	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	111	4¢	$4	0x55575c…
05-09 19:28:09	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	4¢	$0	0x3eeaac…
05-09 16:22:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	406	3¢	$14	0xcd217e…
05-09 04:23:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	128	98¢	$125	0x009835…
05-09 01:31:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	128	97¢	$125	0x1f4a1a…
05-08 23:17:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	140	97¢	$136	0xb91818…
05-08 21:17:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	140	98¢	$137	0xf33915…
05-08 15:06:13	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	406	2¢	$8	0x9f81e8…
05-08 11:42:49	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	406	2¢	$9	0x3f7c6b…
05-08 06:43:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	SELL	415	4¢	$15	0xe8944a…
05-08 04:34:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	415	3¢	$13	0xba35ab…
05-07 23:35:05	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	15	97¢	$15	0xbee5d3…
05-07 23:35:05	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	113	97¢	$109	0x0675ce…
05-07 19:37:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	128	97¢	$125	0xc818bd…
05-07 02:21:40	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	SELL	118	1¢	$1	0xa7995e…
05-07 02:21:40	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	SELL	42	1¢	$0	0x360d4f…
05-06 22:52:18	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	160	2¢	$3	0xe9982c…
05-06 13:59:10	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	SELL	158	1¢	$2	0x568d91…
05-06 12:46:22	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	38	1¢	$0	0x53e9db…
05-06 12:46:20	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	120	1¢	$1	0xf66366…
05-06 12:14:14	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	92	10¢	$9	0x35d34c…
05-06 07:45:48	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	92	3¢	$3	0x8c0208…
04-30 19:47:38	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	SELL	304	1¢	$3	0xe59c26…
04-30 17:30:30	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	BUY	304	0¢	$1	0x2066b0…
04-30 12:29:40	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	SELL	131	98¢	$128	0x1b7e08…
04-30 10:25:06	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	BUY	131	98¢	$129	0x933b6b…
04-29 23:19:54	Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?	No	SELL	34	99¢	$34	0xcc35f0…
04-29 20:51:08	Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?	No	SELL	78	99¢	$77	0x21be2d…
04-29 20:51:08	Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x07bdea…
04-29 15:53:40	Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?	No	BUY	119	99¢	$118	0x003365…
04-29 14:27:48	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	69	99¢	$68	0x8eeae4…
04-29 10:08:06	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	69	99¢	$68	0x55b984…
04-28 02:06:26	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0x6f1dbf…
04-28 02:04:24	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x5dd515…
04-27 21:43:38	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	SELL	97	99¢	$96	0x6089e3…
04-27 18:46:30	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	BUY	73	98¢	$72	0x4dc533…
04-27 18:46:30	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	BUY	24	98¢	$24	0x2d6525…
04-27 17:17:30	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	Yes	SELL	96	4¢	$3	0xc53710…
04-27 17:17:30	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	Yes	SELL	45	4¢	$2	0x83eb16…
04-27 17:17:30	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	Yes	SELL	87	4¢	$3	0x61c888…
04-27 13:10:06	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	Yes	BUY	228	2¢	$5	0x9b25e3…
04-27 04:36:36	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	179	1¢	$2	0x76eb6d…
04-27 03:05:48	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	2¢	$0	0x137da7…
04-27 03:05:46	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	157	2¢	$3	0x2d665a…
04-27 00:33:28	Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	129	98¢	$126	0xc55a25…
04-26 22:56:44	Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	129	98¢	$126	0x3fcaff…
04-26 13:31:18	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	Yes	SELL	49	2¢	$1	0xb5fe72…
04-26 13:31:18	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	Yes	SELL	49	2¢	$1	0x75bcac…
04-26 12:01:16	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	Yes	BUY	98	2¢	$2	0x708c89…
04-26 07:35:40	Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	78	2¢	$2	0x6b8d21…
04-26 05:40:14	Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	78	2¢	$2	0x99554c…
04-25 22:42:46	Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	SELL	76	5¢	$3	0xf646ea…
04-25 20:57:08	Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	BUY	76	4¢	$3	0xc23c46…
04-25 19:01:14	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	Yes	SELL	229	3¢	$7	0xd3cd49…
04-25 19:01:14	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	Yes	SELL	58	3¢	$2	0x6ffab2…
04-25 19:01:14	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	Yes	SELL	26	3¢	$1	0x03d80a…
04-25 15:01:48	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	Yes	BUY	314	5¢	$17	0x8e63a9…
04-25 05:05:14	Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	77	2¢	$1	0x80660c…
04-25 05:05:14	Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	64	2¢	$1	0x498e38…
04-25 05:05:14	Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	46	2¢	$1	0x47199d…
04-25 05:05:14	Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	75	2¢	$1	0x097291…
04-25 05:05:14	Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	43	2¢	$1	0x035fc5…
04-25 00:07:50	Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	305	2¢	$6	0x3befd5…
04-24 10:28:22	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	SELL	65	95¢	$62	0x0bbe6e…
04-24 10:28:20	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	SELL	62	95¢	$59	0x8c38de…
04-24 07:18:54	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	BUY	127	95¢	$121	0xac8c3c…
04-24 02:26:40	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	SELL	79	6¢	$5	0xa7fb65…
04-24 02:26:40	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	SELL	31	6¢	$2	0x638783…
04-24 00:23:52	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	BUY	110	7¢	$7	0x0eff24…