Mellow-Channel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.45K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$69

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-12

last 09-23 08:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 16 days

Categories

Politics

31% 100% +$1

Other

30% 100% +$2

Tech

20% 100% +$1

Crypto

19% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions Resolved markets (19) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the us next strike iran on february 11 2026 et	1	$210	210	+210	No	+$0	02-12 05:07
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	1	$175	175	+175	No	+$0	05-25 09:08
Will Claude go down 0-2 times in April?	1	$134	134	+134	No	+$0	04-03 02:11
will the price of bitcoin be between 58000 60000 on february 23	1	$123	123	+123	No	+$0	02-23 12:46
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$106	106	+106	No	+$0	05-15 07:54
will anthropic ipo by july 31 2026	1	$98	98	+98	No	+$0	07-13 10:01
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?	1	$78	78	+78	No	+$0	03-24 07:25
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?	1	$77	77	+77	No	+$0	04-01 07:11
Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$68	68	+68	No	+$0	05-15 07:53
us x iran ceasefire by march 2	1	$65	65	+65	No	+$0	03-02 07:13
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	1	$59	60	+60	No	+$1	05-04 03:40
will claude 5 be released by march 15 2026	1	$53	53	+53	No	+$0	03-15 08:25
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?	2	$38	38	+38	No	+$0	06-18 10:33
Will there be 3 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	1	$37	37	+37	No	+$0	08-30 16:07
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	1	$35	35	+35	No	+$0	04-03 02:14
Will MrBeast hit 526 million subscribers by September 30?	1	$26	26	+26	No	+$0	09-23 08:56
grok 5 released by march 31 2026	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	03-24 07:30
elon musk of tweets february 12 february 14 165 189	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	02-14 02:31
open above 1pt5 on february 13 2026	2	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	02-12 18:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-23 08:56:49	Will MrBeast hit 526 million subscribers by September 30?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xb217aa…
08-30 16:07:10	Will there be 3 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	37	100¢	$37	0x4d860b…
07-13 10:01:50	will anthropic ipo by july 31 2026	No	BUY	98	100¢	$98	0x13d830…
06-18 10:33:56	Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?	No	BUY	31	99¢	$31	0xddf130…
06-16 15:08:08	Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xd1d5d1…
05-25 09:08:02	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	175	100¢	$175	0x8d46a2…
05-15 07:54:43	Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	106	100¢	$106	0x0783f8…
05-15 07:53:09	Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	68	100¢	$68	0x71a888…
05-04 03:40:36	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	BUY	60	98¢	$59	0xb87d9b…
04-03 02:14:33	Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x5aea22…
04-03 02:11:03	Will Claude go down 0-2 times in April?	No	BUY	134	100¢	$134	0x3647cb…
04-01 07:11:29	EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	77	100¢	$77	0xcb3355…
03-24 07:30:25	grok 5 released by march 31 2026	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0x755624…
03-24 07:25:07	Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	78	100¢	$78	0x358e8a…
03-15 08:25:43	will claude 5 be released by march 15 2026	No	BUY	53	100¢	$53	0x60f2f6…
03-02 07:13:41	us x iran ceasefire by march 2	No	BUY	65	99¢	$65	0xa7946f…
02-23 12:46:58	will the price of bitcoin be between 58000 60000 on february 23	No	BUY	123	100¢	$123	0xabc179…
02-14 02:31:01	elon musk of tweets february 12 february 14 165 189	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x78cc07…
02-12 18:08:45	open above 1pt5 on february 13 2026	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xc6ffb8…
02-12 05:07:59	open above 1pt5 on february 13 2026	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x37e39f…
02-12 05:07:13	will the us next strike iran on february 11 2026 et	No	BUY	210	100¢	$210	0x45af9e…