Optimal-Stumbling — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$11.6K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

38.2%

Resolved

Trades

11,337

lifetime

Volume

$554.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$49

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-15

last 07-20 16:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 8 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 39% $-11,613

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

76 active days in 12wk • peak 427 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin up or down july 16 2026 4am et	45	$2.7K	4,865	+4,865	open	—	07-16 08:00
bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 12pm et	18	$2.7K	4,741	+4,741	open	—	07-17 16:09
bitcoin up or down july 16 2026 2pm et	38	$2.6K	4,548	+4,548	open	—	07-16 18:00
bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 12pm et	25	$2.5K	4,454	+4,454	open	—	07-20 16:00
bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 2pm et	11	$2.5K	4,432	+4,432	open	—	07-17 18:00
bitcoin up or down july 8 2026 10pm et	34	$2.5K	4,404	+4,404	open	—	07-09 02:02
bitcoin up or down july 15 2026 9am et	39	$2.5K	4,386	+4,386	open	—	07-15 13:00
bitcoin up or down june 23 2026 1am et	107	$2.5K	4,364	+4,364	open	—	06-23 05:13
bitcoin up or down july 6 2026 12pm et	46	$2.5K	4,387	+4,387	open	—	07-06 16:02
bitcoin up or down june 21 2026 10pm et	85	$2.4K	4,500	+4,500	open	—	06-22 02:00
bitcoin up or down june 22 2026 12am et	91	$2.4K	4,500	+4,500	open	—	06-22 04:00
bitcoin up or down june 20 2026 7pm et	104	$2.4K	4,500	+4,500	open	—	06-20 23:09
bitcoin up or down june 21 2026 5pm et	86	$2.4K	4,500	+4,500	open	—	06-21 21:05
bitcoin up or down june 17 2026 5am et	17	$2.4K	4,500	+4,500	open	—	06-17 09:51
bitcoin up or down june 18 2026 1am et	32	$2.4K	4,500	+4,500	open	—	06-18 05:01
bitcoin up or down july 6 2026 9am et	43	$2.4K	4,329	+4,329	open	—	07-06 13:00
bitcoin up or down july 1 2026 8pm et	76	$2.4K	4,348	+4,348	open	—	07-02 00:01
bitcoin up or down july 6 2026 11pm et	47	$2.4K	4,301	+4,301	open	—	07-07 03:01
bitcoin up or down june 7 2026 12am et	9	$2.4K	4,500	+4,500	open	—	06-07 04:39
bitcoin up or down june 8 2026 8pm et	71	$2.4K	4,500	+4,500	open	—	06-09 00:04
bitcoin up or down june 10 2026 6pm et	47	$2.4K	4,500	+4,500	open	—	06-10 22:00
bitcoin up or down june 15 2026 9am et	15	$2.4K	4,500	+4,500	open	—	06-15 13:00
bitcoin up or down june 9 2026 12pm et	40	$2.4K	4,500	+4,500	open	—	06-09 16:03
bitcoin up or down june 14 2026 2pm et	22	$2.4K	4,500	+4,500	open	—	06-14 18:06
bitcoin up or down june 7 2026 4am et	61	$2.4K	4,500	+4,500	open	—	06-07 08:02
bitcoin up or down june 7 2026 1am et	11	$2.4K	4,500	+4,500	open	—	06-07 05:13
bitcoin up or down june 8 2026 9am et	98	$2.4K	4,500	+4,500	open	—	06-08 13:13
bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 10am et	51	$2.4K	4,500	+4,500	open	—	06-04 14:01
bitcoin up or down june 7 2026 4pm et	42	$2.4K	4,500	+4,500	open	—	06-07 20:00
bitcoin up or down june 10 2026 10am et	39	$2.4K	4,500	+4,500	open	—	06-10 14:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-20 16:00:09	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 12pm et	Down	BUY	12	56¢	$7	0x3dc04b…
07-20 16:00:09	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 12pm et	Down	BUY	90	56¢	$50	0x2b1c5a…
07-20 16:00:09	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 12pm et	Down	BUY	90	57¢	$51	0x23bfcb…
07-20 16:00:09	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 12pm et	Down	BUY	1,007	56¢	$564	0x0a63cc…
07-20 16:00:07	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 12pm et	Down	BUY	295	57¢	$168	0xfc8198…
07-20 16:00:07	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 12pm et	Down	BUY	90	57¢	$51	0xf78706…
07-20 16:00:07	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 12pm et	Down	BUY	3	57¢	$2	0xf3ed0d…
07-20 16:00:07	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 12pm et	Down	BUY	90	57¢	$51	0xe7c375…
07-20 16:00:07	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 12pm et	Down	BUY	3	57¢	$2	0xe2cfae…
07-20 16:00:07	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 12pm et	Down	BUY	1,077	57¢	$614	0xcfc48d…
07-20 16:00:07	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 12pm et	Down	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0xcbf512…
07-20 16:00:07	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 12pm et	Down	BUY	90	57¢	$51	0x96fd12…
07-20 16:00:07	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 12pm et	Down	BUY	36	57¢	$21	0x8dcc81…
07-20 16:00:07	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 12pm et	Down	BUY	14	57¢	$8	0x7be2ad…
07-20 16:00:07	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 12pm et	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x64cab1…
07-20 16:00:07	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 12pm et	Down	BUY	90	57¢	$51	0x5bc632…
07-20 16:00:07	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 12pm et	Down	BUY	1,298	56¢	$723	0x596e66…
07-20 16:00:07	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 12pm et	Down	BUY	90	57¢	$51	0x517b7b…
07-20 16:00:07	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 12pm et	Down	BUY	28	57¢	$16	0x42ec54…
07-20 16:00:07	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 12pm et	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x1e410b…
07-20 16:00:06	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 12pm et	Down	BUY	21	57¢	$12	0xd03b7f…
07-20 16:00:06	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 12pm et	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xa188fd…
07-20 16:00:06	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 12pm et	Down	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x87f949…
07-20 16:00:06	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 12pm et	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x295b1b…
07-20 16:00:06	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 12pm et	Down	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x04ba33…
07-20 14:00:12	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 10am et	Up	BUY	165	56¢	$93	0xe61451…
07-20 14:00:12	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 10am et	Up	BUY	844	56¢	$473	0xc59f36…
07-20 14:00:12	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 10am et	Up	BUY	45	56¢	$25	0x4cf348…
07-20 14:00:12	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 10am et	Up	BUY	844	56¢	$473	0x228478…
07-20 14:00:12	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 10am et	Up	BUY	90	56¢	$50	0x020552…
07-20 14:00:10	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 10am et	Up	BUY	3	56¢	$2	0xbc24e3…
07-20 14:00:10	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 10am et	Up	BUY	85	56¢	$47	0x87e4dc…
07-20 14:00:10	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 10am et	Up	BUY	45	56¢	$25	0x2b058e…
07-20 14:00:07	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 10am et	Up	BUY	90	56¢	$50	0xaf6ec2…
07-20 14:00:06	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 10am et	Up	BUY	137	56¢	$77	0x7b1d4b…
07-20 14:00:06	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 10am et	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x0acb8e…
07-20 12:00:24	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	1,226	56¢	$687	0x28ec2a…
07-20 12:00:18	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x06e0e5…
07-20 12:00:13	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0xbf536d…
07-20 12:00:10	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	19	57¢	$11	0x774f5d…
07-20 12:00:09	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x04d8e5…
07-20 12:00:07	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xe679ae…
07-20 12:00:07	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xda415e…
07-20 12:00:07	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	3	57¢	$2	0xb3b67b…
07-20 12:00:07	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	36	57¢	$21	0x6237bb…
07-20 12:00:07	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x474863…
07-20 12:00:07	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x2ee611…
07-20 12:00:07	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	28	57¢	$16	0x1bd141…
07-20 12:00:07	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x01132a…
07-20 12:00:06	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0xe68e19…
07-20 12:00:06	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	1,016	56¢	$566	0xe26021…
07-20 12:00:06	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xb8b5be…
07-20 12:00:06	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	3	57¢	$2	0xad4d18…
07-20 12:00:06	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	36	57¢	$21	0x731521…
07-20 12:00:06	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x5c01f1…
07-20 12:00:06	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x567882…
07-20 12:00:06	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x4755ea…
07-20 12:00:06	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	70	57¢	$40	0x18e2cc…
07-20 07:17:52	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	24	56¢	$14	0xfff7f1…
07-20 07:17:52	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0xbd7c1f…
07-20 07:17:52	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	250	56¢	$140	0x8b9660…
07-20 07:17:51	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0xf51937…
07-20 07:17:51	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	3	56¢	$2	0xdb7fd0…
07-20 07:17:51	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xcd08ae…
07-20 07:17:51	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	7	56¢	$4	0x9ea88d…
07-20 07:17:51	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	76	56¢	$42	0x872d05…
07-20 07:17:51	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	14	56¢	$8	0x71d473…
07-20 07:17:51	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	250	56¢	$140	0x524813…
07-20 07:17:51	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x182236…
07-20 07:17:51	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	14	56¢	$8	0x0684bd…
07-20 07:17:49	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	24	56¢	$14	0xfb809e…
07-20 07:17:49	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0xf94020…
07-20 07:17:49	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0xe0b975…
07-20 07:17:49	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	3	56¢	$2	0xc6eb58…
07-20 07:17:49	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0xb09b03…
07-20 07:17:49	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x9cae83…
07-20 07:17:49	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x881ebe…
07-20 07:17:49	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	250	56¢	$140	0x6518f4…
07-20 07:17:49	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	24	56¢	$14	0x62a3da…
07-20 07:17:49	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x5a287f…
07-20 07:17:49	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	133	56¢	$75	0x133db0…
07-20 07:17:48	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xe2caf5…
07-20 07:17:48	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0xda6c00…
07-20 07:17:48	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	14	56¢	$8	0xd07046…
07-20 07:17:48	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	40	56¢	$22	0x6d8735…
07-20 07:17:48	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	250	56¢	$140	0x027c15…
07-20 07:17:46	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0xdd7675…
07-20 07:17:46	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	6	56¢	$3	0xbc357b…
07-20 07:17:46	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x6fc016…
07-20 07:17:46	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x6ac348…
07-20 07:17:46	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x667230…
07-20 07:17:45	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	24	56¢	$14	0xc08dea…
07-20 07:17:45	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	50	56¢	$28	0x950aa7…
07-20 07:17:45	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	50	56¢	$28	0x437ba6…
07-20 07:17:42	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	48	56¢	$27	0xe7f9e1…
07-20 07:17:42	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	24	56¢	$14	0xcf0e06…
07-20 07:17:42	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x6aebcd…
07-20 07:17:42	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	23	56¢	$13	0x2c415e…
07-20 07:02:34	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	60	56¢	$34	0x99bdaf…
07-20 07:00:45	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	198	56¢	$111	0xafd9ac…