Substantial-Fibrosis — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$201

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

60.2%

Resolved (90d)

7,956

Trades (90d)

36,576

59,357 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$79.7K

$124.8K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-26

last 11-02 13:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 151 days

Categories

Crypto

93% 64% -$966

Other

5% 16% -$361

Politics

1% 71% -$171

Tech

0% 100% +$1

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

40 active days in 12wk • peak 2291 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will bitcoin reach 71k on march 27	4	$994	500	500	+0	No	+$5	03-28 06:56
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	6	$504	600	600	+0	Yes	-$36	04-03 19:21
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	2	$360	200	200	+0	No	+$4	04-04 06:35
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	2	$328	200	200	+0	Yes	+$4	04-04 16:57
miguel daz canel out as leader of cuba by march 31 971 121	2	$296	300	0	+300	No	+$4	03-28 19:37
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	4	$235	132	132	+0	No	+$29	04-01 16:29
spx opens up or down on april 6 2026	2	$222	250	250	+0	Up	-$12	04-03 21:05
will there be between 6 and 9 us strikes on somalia in march 2026	7	$208	128	100	+28	Yes	-$10	04-03 21:22
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	4	$197	200	0	+200	Yes	-$197	04-04 15:05
will monthly inflation increase by 0pt8 or more in march 692	2	$196	100	100	+0	Yes	+$4	04-10 13:55
us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	2	$192	200	0	+200	No	+$8	04-05 15:27
will trumps approval rating be less than 39pt0 on april 3 2026	5	$192	100	100	+0	No	+$6	04-03 19:37
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 08:30 UTC	94	$174	220	0	+220	Up	+$46	07-22 08:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 17:10 UTC	84	$164	253	0	+253	Down	-$141	07-22 17:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 10:50 UTC	88	$162	214	0	+214	Down	+$52	07-22 10:54
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	2	$157	100	100	+0	No	+$25	04-11 05:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 08:40 UTC	87	$154	253	0	+253	Down	+$46	07-22 08:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 07:10 UTC	73	$153	301	0	+301	Down	+$88	07-22 07:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 07:55 UTC	77	$151	266	0	+266	Up	+$55	07-22 07:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 07:45 UTC	75	$150	227	0	+227	Down	-$136	07-22 07:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 14:25 UTC	71	$146	204	0	+204	Down	-$140	07-22 14:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 18:15 UTC	80	$141	345	0	+345	Up	-$73	07-22 18:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 07:50 UTC	69	$140	197	0	+197	Up	+$57	07-22 07:53
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 14:55 UTC	78	$139	190	0	+190	Up	-$123	07-22 14:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 17:45 UTC	76	$133	179	0	+179	Down	-$35	07-22 17:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 11:00 UTC	63	$132	295	0	+295	Up	-$132	07-22 11:04
bitcoin above 72k on april 1	2	$129	130	0	+130	No	+$1	04-01 09:16
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 18:10 UTC	68	$128	187	0	+187	Down	+$20	07-22 18:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 09:00 UTC	64	$125	191	0	+191	Up	-$99	07-22 09:04
elon musk of tweets march 30 april 1 65 89	6	$123	150	0	+150	No	-$123	04-01 12:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-02 13:36:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x17856b…
11-02 13:30:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0x10e50c…
11-02 13:30:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x09006b…
11-02 13:26:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x9fc5f8…
11-02 09:46:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xfffd79…
11-02 09:40:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x8e0388…
11-02 09:38:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x46c822…
11-02 09:25:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x22e386…
11-02 09:20:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x0c0956…
11-02 09:15:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x3fa892…
11-02 09:15:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	0	68¢	$0	0x0e51d2…
11-02 09:11:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-11-02 09:10 UTC	Up	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0xb4002b…
11-02 00:16:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xfcf712…
11-02 00:11:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xf2e471…
11-02 00:11:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0xcb8092…
11-02 00:01:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x9de99d…
11-01 23:55:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x04433d…
11-01 23:36:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x26ecbc…
11-01 23:31:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xbf1dce…
11-01 23:25:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x599fec…
11-01 23:21:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x9e2d5c…
11-01 21:25:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x922436…
11-01 21:25:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	47¢	$1	0x638f8f…
11-01 21:21:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x4aea64…
11-01 20:21:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	0	53¢	$0	0x7d0f62…
11-01 20:06:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x031c1d…
11-01 19:20:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x504da8…
11-01 19:15:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x84f76b…
11-01 18:25:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x3de30b…
10-25 00:05:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xa1974e…
10-25 00:01:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	3	81¢	$2	0x9c72b3…
10-25 00:01:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	3	81¢	$2	0x5dfc92…
10-25 00:00:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	3	85¢	$2	0xdc58c5…
10-25 00:00:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	3	85¢	$2	0xa87e2a…
10-24 23:58:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	7	36¢	$3	0xce8639…
10-24 23:57:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0xc08d2e…
10-24 23:57:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	69¢	$3	0x9a0ea5…
10-24 23:57:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0xad0173…
10-24 23:57:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x5b363e…
10-24 23:56:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0xc7029c…
10-24 23:55:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0xc80737…
10-24 23:55:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x213294…
10-24 23:53:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x921ad8…
10-24 23:53:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x385059…
10-24 23:51:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0xa0adc3…
10-24 23:51:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	55¢	$2	0x0229df…
10-24 23:47:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x931ade…
10-24 23:46:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0xc4d3fc…
10-24 23:46:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x03abe7…
10-24 23:43:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x3bf429…
10-24 23:43:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xe9e246…
10-24 23:43:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x49ad87…
10-24 23:43:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	77¢	$2	0x40568a…
10-24 23:42:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	88¢	$2	0x920c07…
10-24 23:41:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x5b819c…
10-24 23:36:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	BUY	3	81¢	$2	0xdc0a38…
10-24 23:36:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	BUY	3	83¢	$3	0xbf2290…
10-24 23:36:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x3fd16a…
10-24 23:35:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	BUY	4	65¢	$3	0x8cfa66…
10-24 23:35:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	BUY	4	71¢	$3	0x1a19fd…
10-24 23:31:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	91¢	$2	0x4139df…
10-24 23:30:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	84¢	$3	0xc7f0b2…
10-24 22:58:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	16	19¢	$3	0xebaf4c…
10-24 22:48:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xd0cd7b…
10-24 22:33:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x79d93b…
10-24 22:33:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	85¢	$2	0x44becb…
10-24 22:33:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	85¢	$2	0x438e21…
10-24 22:32:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0xc92e9a…
10-24 22:32:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0xa1551e…
10-24 22:31:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x3a984e…
10-24 22:22:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x4e7764…
10-24 22:22:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0xbaa4ef…
10-24 22:08:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	89¢	$3	0x61868c…
10-24 22:08:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	82¢	$2	0x1b45f9…
10-24 22:07:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0xe0f3ab…
10-24 22:07:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	83¢	$2	0x9623b7…
10-24 22:02:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xb0d0c7…
10-24 21:52:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	3	81¢	$2	0xffa81e…
10-24 21:48:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x1a5a51…
10-24 21:48:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x463464…
10-24 21:48:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xb5a0cb…
10-24 21:47:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x269cc1…
10-24 21:47:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0xcd5c8b…
10-24 21:47:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x8b2241…
10-24 21:46:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0xfb327a…
10-24 21:46:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	81¢	$2	0x30bdc9…
10-24 21:45:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	89¢	$2	0x469274…
10-24 21:42:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x4bee7a…
10-24 21:41:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xa76898…
10-24 21:32:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0xc5b3e6…
10-24 21:27:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	90¢	$2	0x2e7a3a…
10-24 21:27:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	91¢	$2	0x81c961…
10-24 21:26:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	81¢	$2	0x0446c8…
10-24 21:25:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x8feaf1…
10-24 21:23:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x791210…
10-24 21:22:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	3	89¢	$2	0x6922a6…
10-24 21:22:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x1080ae…
10-24 21:22:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	3	91¢	$2	0x8c8e84…
10-24 21:21:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0xa5f718…
10-24 21:21:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x3d5757…