Fatal-Environment — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$38

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

93.7%

Resolved

Trades

156

lifetime

Volume

$2.06K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-08

last 08-31 06:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 63 days

Categories

Other

78% 96% +$2

Politics

14% 77% -$22

Crypto

4% 100% +$0

Sports

3% 100% +$2

Tech

2% 50% -$20

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
north korea missile testlaunch by march 31	2	$49	25	25	+0	No	+$1	04-01 04:38
will hoppers 4th weekend box office be greater than 13m	2	$49	25	25	+0	No	+$0	03-29 08:10
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30?	2	$48	24	24	+0	No	$0	06-25 13:21
Will MrBeast's video get between 68 and 70 million views on day 3?	2	$47	24	24	+0	No	+$0	05-05 00:48
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	1	$45	45	0	+45	No	+$0	05-29 15:11
will mrbeasts latest video get between 69 and 70 million views on day 5	2	$43	22	22	+0	No	+$0	04-09 05:22
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	2	$40	20	20	+0	No	+$0	05-01 06:09
Will PPI YoY be between 4.0% and 4.9% in May?	2	$40	20	20	+0	No	+$0	06-11 13:50
deepseek v4 released by march 21	2	$40	20	20	+0	No	+$0	03-22 03:54
will mrbeast hit 116 billion views by march 31	2	$39	20	20	+0	Yes	+$0	03-31 03:29
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?	2	$39	20	20	+0	No	+$0	05-11 16:11
Will Keir Starmer say "Shadow Secretary" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	2	$39	20	20	+0	No	+$0	04-29 13:11
Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50?	2	$37	19	19	+0	Yes	+$0	05-21 01:13
ethereum above 2000 on june 16 2026	1	$35	35	0	+35	No	+$0	06-15 10:42
highest temperature in chicago on march 17 2026 32forhigher	2	$34	17	17	+0	No	+$0	03-17 06:28
Will Biagio Simonetti win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election?	2	$33	17	17	+0	No	+$1	06-08 18:16
bitcoin above 52k on july 4 2026	1	$32	32	0	+32	Yes	+$0	07-02 16:21
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	2	$32	16	16	+0	No	+$0	06-02 19:29
Will Trump say "Asshole" in May?	2	$32	16	16	+0	No	+$0	06-01 06:33
will jumanji welcome to the jungle be the top us netflix movie this week	2	$31	16	16	+0	No	+$0	04-14 03:43
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be at least 450k?	2	$30	15	15	+0	Yes	+$0	06-19 23:09
highest temperature in seoul on march 19 2026 7c	2	$30	15	15	+0	No	+$0	03-19 00:42
Will Chris Dudley win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?	2	$30	15	15	+0	No	+$0	05-19 03:09
will mrbeasts next video get between 56 and 58 million views on day 3	2	$29	15	15	+0	No	+$0	04-07 05:40
highest temperature in munich on march 16 2026 11c	2	$25	12	12	+0	No	+$0	03-16 14:45
will hoppers 2nd weekend box office be between 26m and 29m	2	$23	12	12	+0	Yes	+$1	03-16 21:05
will claude opus 4 6 be the best ai model on april 17 2026	1	$22	22	0	+22	No	+$0	04-16 08:18
chatgpt outage by april 3	1	$20	21	0	+21	Yes	-$20	04-02 11:34
will anyone say pink 10 times during 2026 nathans hot dog eating contest 20260630153701049	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	07-04 22:04
will mrbeasts next video get between 40 and 41 million views on day 3	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	02-10 03:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-31 06:09:34	Will SpaceXAI be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xd3f760…
08-31 03:21:13	Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x60e324…
07-28 06:12:04	will hyperliquid reach 84 in july	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xdab998…
07-28 06:08:24	will dogecoin reach 0pt15 in july 2026	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xae3b69…
07-04 22:04:47	will anyone say pink 10 times during 2026 nathans hot dog eating contest 20260630153701049	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x6e9c6c…
07-02 16:21:08	bitcoin above 52k on july 4 2026	Yes	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x747a31…
06-25 13:21:14	Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x752d9e…
06-25 13:20:59	Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xc5c68f…
06-25 12:09:10	Will Trump be impeached by June 30?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x094567…
06-19 23:09:35	Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be at least 450k?	Yes	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x4a5454…
06-18 21:11:50	Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be at least 450k?	Yes	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0xdcf148…
06-15 10:42:42	ethereum above 2000 on june 16 2026	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0xd8d516…
06-11 13:50:21	Will PPI YoY be between 4.0% and 4.9% in May?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x6b11b6…
06-10 22:55:45	Will PPI YoY be between 4.0% and 4.9% in May?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x75d9e0…
06-10 01:35:16	will iran close its airspace by june 9 20260609184136047	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x007167…
06-08 18:16:52	Will Biagio Simonetti win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x1f6530…
06-07 07:37:16	Will Biagio Simonetti win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election?	No	BUY	17	97¢	$16	0x61e44a…
06-02 19:29:44	Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x063d71…
06-01 21:33:31	Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	No	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0xc168e6…
06-01 06:33:05	Will Trump say "Asshole" in May?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0xb2af47…
05-30 18:02:19	Will Iván Cepeda win less than 30% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x13bd8b…
05-29 15:11:04	Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x04defd…
05-29 07:31:15	Will Trump say "Asshole" in May?	No	BUY	16	97¢	$16	0xaab288…
05-25 05:48:08	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	Yes	BUY	16	97¢	$16	0x3f56fc…
05-21 01:13:10	Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50?	Yes	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0x597b6e…
05-19 23:36:19	Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50?	Yes	BUY	19	97¢	$18	0x9a3e57…
05-19 03:09:32	Will Chris Dudley win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xa6bff7…
05-18 02:38:31	Will Chris Dudley win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?	No	BUY	15	97¢	$15	0x1f7e75…
05-15 16:15:10	Will Czechia come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0xf31b25…
05-11 16:11:34	Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x3bc06b…
05-11 05:08:23	Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0xedf9df…
05-07 16:56:21	Will Zelenskyy post 140-159 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x12843e…
05-05 00:48:14	Will MrBeast's video get between 68 and 70 million views on day 3?	No	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0x76ec71…
05-04 18:48:38	Will MrBeast's video get between 68 and 70 million views on day 3?	No	BUY	24	98¢	$24	0x30276b…
05-01 06:09:36	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xc2c45a…
04-30 00:35:28	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xf35906…
04-29 13:11:50	Will Keir Starmer say "Shadow Secretary" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x40c12b…
04-28 00:02:30	Will Keir Starmer say "Shadow Secretary" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x8b24d5…
04-22 19:26:16	will mrbeasts video get between 76 and 77 million views on day 5	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x9ad50b…
04-16 08:18:42	will claude opus 4 6 be the best ai model on april 17 2026	No	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0x625f03…
04-14 03:43:35	will jumanji welcome to the jungle be the top us netflix movie this week	No	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0xf4435c…
04-13 10:18:07	will jumanji welcome to the jungle be the top us netflix movie this week	No	BUY	16	97¢	$16	0x1a077f…
04-09 05:22:21	will mrbeasts latest video get between 69 and 70 million views on day 5	No	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0xf51099…
04-08 19:30:21	will mrbeasts latest video get between 69 and 70 million views on day 5	No	BUY	22	97¢	$21	0xcd7203…
04-07 05:40:47	will mrbeasts next video get between 56 and 58 million views on day 3	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x158880…
04-06 20:26:25	will mrbeasts next video get between 56 and 58 million views on day 3	No	BUY	15	97¢	$15	0x9c1c05…
04-02 11:34:49	chatgpt outage by april 3	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x405454…
04-01 04:38:25	north korea missile testlaunch by march 31	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x24ce72…
03-31 03:29:41	will mrbeast hit 116 billion views by march 31	Yes	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xe38244…
03-30 07:38:30	north korea missile testlaunch by march 31	No	BUY	25	97¢	$24	0x8f5245…
03-30 00:43:10	will mrbeast hit 116 billion views by march 31	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x85ef4f…
03-29 08:10:02	will hoppers 4th weekend box office be greater than 13m	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0x292f26…
03-29 00:54:52	will hoppers 4th weekend box office be greater than 13m	No	BUY	25	97¢	$24	0x920575…
03-27 14:19:07	white house of tweets march 20 march 27 2026 160 179	Yes	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0xb409ac…
03-25 19:36:37	will mrbeasts next video get between 75 and 76 million views on day 5	No	BUY	18	98¢	$18	0xae7142…
03-22 03:54:09	deepseek v4 released by march 21	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x5194b6…
03-20 20:48:55	highest temperature in dallas on march 20 2026 86 87f	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xb52342…
03-20 00:00:39	deepseek v4 released by march 21	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x5f7ccb…
03-19 13:05:37	highest temperature in dallas on march 20 2026 86 87f	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x2c3e13…
03-19 00:42:49	highest temperature in seoul on march 19 2026 7c	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x5d56a4…
03-19 00:20:01	highest temperature in seoul on march 19 2026 7c	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x66acb8…
03-17 15:53:07	will 25 29 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 10 16	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x68777a…
03-17 06:28:09	highest temperature in chicago on march 17 2026 32forhigher	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x45e5bf…
03-17 01:52:03	highest temperature in dallas on march 16 2026 58 59f	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x5d55b6…
03-16 21:05:05	will hoppers 2nd weekend box office be between 26m and 29m	Yes	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x86cd90…
03-16 14:45:45	highest temperature in munich on march 16 2026 11c	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x20b285…
03-16 12:00:41	highest temperature in nyc on march 17 2026 38 39f	No	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0xc508a5…
03-16 12:00:39	highest temperature in chicago on march 17 2026 32forhigher	No	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x2dbd55…
03-16 12:00:39	highest temperature in munich on march 17 2026 14corhigher	No	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x1a0a0e…
03-16 07:17:07	highest temperature in miami on march 16 2026 77forbelow	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x90d655…
03-16 03:38:05	highest temperature in munich on march 16 2026 11c	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0xcde969…
03-16 03:38:03	highest temperature in dallas on march 16 2026 58 59f	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xbbd701…
03-16 03:38:03	highest temperature in seattle on march 16 2026 46 47f	No	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x7a6afc…
03-16 03:38:01	highest temperature in miami on march 16 2026 77forbelow	No	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x32b18c…
03-15 15:15:15	will hoppers 2nd weekend box office be between 26m and 29m	Yes	BUY	12	95¢	$11	0x1a935b…
03-15 11:27:41	will 25 29 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 10 16	No	BUY	9	92¢	$8	0x37dbaa…
03-11 01:49:19	will kelvin buck be the democratic nominee for ms 01	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x60454a…
03-11 01:49:19	will cliff johnson be the democratic nominee for ms 01	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x02141b…
03-10 18:54:43	will the dinosaurs be the top us netflix show this week	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x5cc0d2…
03-10 18:54:31	will war machine be the top us netflix movie this week	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x86378d…
03-10 18:54:19	will bridgerton season 4 be the top global netflix show this week 577	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xb193a6…
03-10 09:05:49	will war machine be the top global netflix movie this week	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x9d3bee…
03-09 00:00:35	will kelvin buck be the democratic nominee for ms 01	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xc507ab…
03-09 00:00:35	will war machine be the top us netflix movie this week	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x103033…
03-09 00:00:21	will war machine be the top global netflix movie this week	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xcf3be2…
03-09 00:00:19	will the dinosaurs be the top us netflix show this week	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xf3dcc1…
03-09 00:00:19	will cliff johnson be the democratic nominee for ms 01	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xdb8250…
03-09 00:00:19	will bridgerton season 4 be the top global netflix show this week 577	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xc9a5bf…
03-08 23:54:15	will ph win the most seats in the 2026 colombian senate election	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x614bec…
03-07 06:00:59	will ph win the most seats in the 2026 colombian senate election	Yes	BUY	10	95¢	$9	0xccb9f1…
03-06 16:54:37	will the us add between 75k and 100k jobs in february	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x389500…
03-05 21:58:17	will the us add between 75k and 100k jobs in february	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0xdfb17e…
03-04 02:39:51	Will Jasmine Crockett and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x6a0833…
03-03 17:45:03	highest temperature in sao paulo on march 3 2026 30c	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x076981…
03-03 10:26:53	highest temperature in ankara on march 3 2026 14c	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x2f7cd6…
03-02 12:03:43	highest temperature in ankara on march 3 2026 14c	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xd35db4…
03-02 12:03:43	highest temperature in sao paulo on march 3 2026 30c	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x589adb…
03-02 00:04:57	Will Jasmine Crockett and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xf71353…
03-01 06:10:29	highest temperature in london on march 1 2026 10c	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x64216f…
03-01 04:13:59	will tommaso paradiso win sanremo 2026	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xbdcb10…