Adolescent-Fallacy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$5

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

39.5%

Resolved

Trades

7,048

lifetime

Volume

$13.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 05-07 19:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 27% $-5

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 63 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
btc updown 15m 1768593600	4	$79	40	40	+0	open	—	01-16 20:14
btc updown 15m 1770887700	14	$70	42	41	+0	open	—	02-12 09:28
sol updown 15m 1768554900	8	$61	50	50	+0	open	—	01-16 09:28
bitcoin up or down february 25 3am et	36	$60	83	83	+0	open	—	02-25 08:30
btc updown 15m 1767282300	4	$59	75	60	+15	open	—	01-01 15:46
btc updown 15m 1767863700	27	$57	210	210	+0	open	—	01-08 09:24
btc updown 15m 1770929100	7	$56	31	31	+0	open	—	02-12 20:58
btc updown 4h 1767344400	21	$50	117	145	-28	open	—	01-02 10:25
btc updown 15m 1771523100	8	$48	28	28	+0	open	—	02-19 17:56
btc updown 15m 1770892200	10	$48	29	29	+0	open	—	02-12 10:35
btc updown 15m 1767279600	4	$48	50	50	+0	open	—	01-01 15:00
btc updown 15m 1767280500	6	$47	49	50	-1	open	—	01-01 15:15
btc updown 15m 1770730200	12	$45	47	47	+0	open	—	02-10 13:38
sol updown 15m 1768604400	3	$45	60	30	+30	open	—	01-16 23:16
bitcoin up or down january 2 1am et	27	$44	167	179	-11	open	—	01-02 06:33
bitcoin up or down january 3 8pm et	2	$44	50	50	+0	open	—	01-04 01:01
sol updown 15m 1768591800	9	$44	80	40	+40	open	—	01-16 19:39
btc updown 15m 1770926400	8	$44	28	28	+0	open	—	02-12 20:09
btc updown 15m 1767867300	13	$43	50	49	+1	open	—	01-08 10:15
btc updown 15m 1770891300	7	$41	27	27	+0	open	—	02-12 10:28
btc updown 15m 1772734500	6	$40	23	23	+0	open	—	03-05 18:28
bitcoin up or down march 3 10pm et	4	$39	21	21	+0	open	—	03-04 03:48
sol updown 15m 1768607100	6	$39	80	0	+80	open	—	01-16 23:55
btc updown 15m 1767288600	3	$38	20	60	-40	open	—	01-01 17:30
sol updown 15m 1768560300	6	$37	71	0	+71	open	—	01-16 10:48
solana up or down january 14 10pm et	29	$37	105	98	+7	open	—	01-15 03:43
nba min mia 2026 01 03	18	$37	65	65	+0	open	—	01-03 23:30
sol updown 15m 1768548600	5	$37	63	0	+63	open	—	01-16 07:39
btc updown 15m 1767281400	4	$36	18	58	-40	open	—	01-01 15:30
btc updown 15m 1772632800	6	$36	22	22	+0	open	—	03-04 14:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-07 19:35:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xb67000…
05-07 19:23:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x412edc…
05-07 06:57:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	SELL	2	72¢	$1	0xf5d9e2…
05-07 06:56:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	SELL	2	74¢	$1	0x4e2d1b…
05-07 06:55:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x77dd30…
05-07 06:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xf33177…
05-07 04:27:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Up	SELL	3	33¢	$1	0x00cef4…
05-07 04:25:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	3	54¢	$1	0xc1ccc0…
05-07 04:21:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	SELL	4	40¢	$2	0x2a752c…
05-07 04:19:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x92980b…
05-07 04:14:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x234634…
05-07 01:55:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0x1b39fc…
05-07 01:53:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x6390ad…
05-05 19:37:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Up	SELL	2	46¢	$1	0xbc07ba…
05-05 19:37:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Up	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0x87e212…
05-05 19:35:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	4	81¢	$3	0xb14de9…
05-05 09:02:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	4	81¢	$3	0xa83c9b…
05-05 07:58:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Down	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xe3b064…
05-05 07:51:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Down	SELL	2	85¢	$2	0x453019…
05-05 07:49:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	4	70¢	$3	0x30acb4…
05-04 17:54:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xcf0c5d…
05-04 17:50:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0x3f82b3…
05-04 17:25:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Up	SELL	2	89¢	$1	0xa4ad10…
05-04 17:24:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Up	SELL	2	89¢	$1	0x7d0fc2…
05-04 17:12:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	46¢	$1	0x9794c8…
05-04 10:10:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	SELL	4	27¢	$1	0x02622d…
05-04 10:07:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x2b2168…
05-04 10:04:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x3d6d7d…
05-04 06:51:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	SELL	4	24¢	$1	0x6a70b9…
05-04 06:49:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x5b54c3…
05-04 06:44:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x3fb0af…
05-02 05:52:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Down	SELL	2	47¢	$1	0xf3587f…
05-02 05:49:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xd822f7…
05-01 07:00:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	SELL	2	36¢	$1	0x514deb…
05-01 07:00:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xfed658…
04-30 03:30:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xd4a020…
04-30 03:20:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	SELL	2	46¢	$1	0x395e41…
04-30 03:19:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xaa56b6…
04-21 20:10:18	btc updown 5m 1776802200	Down	BUY	4	38¢	$2	0xe83703…
04-21 20:02:16	btc updown 5m 1776801900	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xa439fb…
04-21 13:17:20	btc updown 5m 1776777300	Up	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0x512a6a…
04-21 13:16:48	btc updown 5m 1776777300	Up	SELL	2	73¢	$1	0x8f572f…
04-21 13:16:02	btc updown 5m 1776777300	Up	BUY	4	66¢	$3	0xdaefb4…
04-21 12:53:20	btc updown 5m 1776775800	Down	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0x00cede…
04-21 12:50:00	btc updown 5m 1776775500	Up	BUY	0	5¢	$0	0xd1b5ef…
04-21 12:50:00	btc updown 5m 1776775500	Up	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0xb551c9…
04-21 12:50:00	btc updown 5m 1776775500	Up	BUY	6	5¢	$0	0x2a93a8…
04-21 12:50:00	btc updown 5m 1776775500	Up	BUY	3	5¢	$0	0x147d62…
04-21 12:45:10	btc updown 5m 1776775500	Down	SELL	2	47¢	$1	0xbf2280…
04-21 12:45:10	btc updown 5m 1776775500	Down	SELL	3	47¢	$2	0x23903a…
04-21 12:44:42	btc updown 5m 1776775500	Down	BUY	6	42¢	$3	0x18e649…
04-21 12:43:26	btc updown 5m 1776775200	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x7286c7…
04-21 12:38:34	btc updown 5m 1776774900	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x4e72f2…
04-21 12:32:32	btc updown 5m 1776774600	Down	SELL	2	43¢	$1	0xe9edf4…
04-21 12:30:18	btc updown 5m 1776774600	Down	SELL	2	57¢	$1	0x6d6074…
04-21 12:29:36	btc updown 5m 1776774600	Down	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x999cfb…
04-21 12:24:26	btc updown 5m 1776774000	Down	SELL	2	17¢	$0	0x93cf08…
04-21 12:19:34	btc updown 5m 1776774000	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x85cd53…
04-21 11:28:36	btc updown 5m 1776770700	Down	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0xe5a18a…
04-21 11:28:14	btc updown 5m 1776770700	Down	SELL	1	66¢	$1	0xe0d318…
04-21 11:23:50	btc updown 5m 1776770700	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xc5f10e…
04-21 10:33:40	btc updown 5m 1776767400	Up	SELL	2	53¢	$1	0xfe76cd…
04-21 10:30:04	btc updown 5m 1776767400	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xb13407…
04-21 10:02:04	btc updown 5m 1776765600	Down	SELL	4	31¢	$1	0x3221a6…
04-21 10:00:56	btc updown 5m 1776765600	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x917549…
04-21 09:31:00	btc updown 5m 1776763800	Up	SELL	2	35¢	$1	0x375412…
04-21 09:29:58	btc updown 5m 1776763800	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x4f53ed…
04-21 03:59:30	btc updown 5m 1776744000	Up	SELL	4	50¢	$2	0x486ee9…
04-21 03:55:38	btc updown 5m 1776744000	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xb8c8ef…
04-21 03:45:06	btc updown 5m 1776743100	Down	SELL	8	52¢	$4	0xeac48a…
04-21 03:45:06	btc updown 5m 1776743100	Down	SELL	2	52¢	$1	0x8bd3bd…
04-21 03:41:06	btc updown 5m 1776743100	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x79d60a…
04-21 03:40:24	btc updown 5m 1776742800	Up	SELL	6	28¢	$2	0x1d7bbd…
04-21 03:36:34	btc updown 5m 1776742800	Up	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x064b92…
04-21 02:50:48	btc updown 5m 1776739800	Down	SELL	4	28¢	$1	0x50fe71…
04-21 02:49:34	btc updown 5m 1776739800	Down	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x6f99f1…
04-21 02:36:48	btc updown 5m 1776738900	Down	BUY	8	84¢	$6	0x8ca3aa…
04-21 02:35:24	btc updown 5m 1776738900	Down	SELL	4	48¢	$2	0x934e9d…
04-21 02:34:42	btc updown 5m 1776738900	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x86efbd…
04-21 02:30:24	btc updown 5m 1776738600	Down	SELL	10	24¢	$2	0x6ca797…
04-21 02:29:24	btc updown 5m 1776738600	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xf1aa20…
04-21 01:57:58	btc updown 5m 1776736500	Up	SELL	4	55¢	$2	0x0a68d8…
04-21 01:57:28	btc updown 5m 1776736500	Up	SELL	4	51¢	$2	0x6699b5…
04-21 01:57:18	btc updown 5m 1776736500	Up	SELL	7	49¢	$3	0x3e3f05…
04-21 01:56:52	btc updown 5m 1776736500	Up	SELL	5	55¢	$3	0x7d49f9…
04-21 01:53:16	btc updown 5m 1776736500	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xe28bbc…
04-21 01:52:10	btc updown 5m 1776736200	Up	SELL	8	24¢	$2	0xd00600…
04-21 01:49:58	btc updown 5m 1776736200	Up	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x1a19f1…
04-21 01:44:32	btc updown 5m 1776735900	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x76bbca…
04-21 01:30:32	btc updown 5m 1776735000	Up	SELL	4	57¢	$2	0xaeaf4d…
04-21 01:29:50	btc updown 5m 1776735000	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x90a29c…
04-20 19:17:44	btc updown 5m 1776712800	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x74ea45…
04-20 19:14:10	btc updown 5m 1776712500	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x68b3f6…
04-20 12:48:58	btc updown 5m 1776689100	Up	SELL	2	89¢	$2	0x2c2b53…
04-20 12:42:50	btc updown 5m 1776689100	Up	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x849144…
04-20 12:41:14	btc updown 5m 1776688800	Up	SELL	4	16¢	$1	0x7065d1…
04-20 12:40:22	btc updown 5m 1776688800	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x308aec…
04-20 11:14:08	btc updown 5m 1776683400	Down	SELL	3	85¢	$2	0x81831e…
04-20 11:12:06	btc updown 5m 1776683400	Down	SELL	3	86¢	$2	0x253dab…
04-20 11:08:48	btc updown 5m 1776683400	Down	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x0f46fb…