Variable-Compromise — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

44.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,630

lifetime

Volume

$28.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$18

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-15

last 07-21 11:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

67% 43% $-4

Politics

25% — —

Other

8% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 34 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	67	$2.0K	3,836	3,249	+587	open	—	04-09 17:16
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	23	$1.9K	1,434	1,434	+0	open	—	04-16 13:59
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	37	$1.4K	1,942	1,942	+0	open	—	04-13 09:15
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	23	$743	812	812	+0	open	—	04-13 03:42
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?	9	$703	1,016	1,016	+0	open	—	04-15 12:26
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	4	$660	416	416	+0	open	—	04-12 11:07
highest temperature in toronto on april 13 2026 21c	7	$396	208	208	+0	open	—	04-13 21:48
btc updown 5m 1774628700	9	$377	193	193	+0	open	—	03-27 16:31
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	31	$337	695	695	+0	open	—	04-11 17:53
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	2	$326	228	228	+0	open	—	04-12 18:00
btc updown 5m 1776430200	7	$323	191	154	+37	open	—	04-17 12:55
btc updown 5m 1773578700	2	$310	199	196	+3	open	—	03-15 12:48
will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	14	$304	469	469	+0	open	—	04-10 08:07
btc updown 5m 1774357800	4	$285	175	174	+1	open	—	03-24 13:13
btc updown 5m 1776415200	8	$272	245	134	+111	open	—	04-17 08:44
btc updown 5m 1774631100	4	$268	146	146	+0	open	—	03-27 17:09
btc updown 5m 1776282000	2	$246	134	133	+1	open	—	04-15 19:44
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	2	$228	139	139	+0	open	—	07-19 21:50
btc updown 5m 1774634400	3	$223	149	116	+33	open	—	03-27 18:03
btc updown 5m 1775682000	2	$213	174	168	+6	open	—	04-08 21:04
btc updown 5m 1774368300	4	$204	136	134	+1	open	—	03-24 16:09
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28?	7	$199	230	230	+0	open	—	05-28 11:41
btc updown 5m 1776417000	2	$195	100	100	+0	open	—	04-17 09:14
btc updown 5m 1774847700	6	$186	238	115	+124	open	—	03-30 05:19
btc updown 5m 1774275600	4	$184	111	110	+1	open	—	03-23 14:25
btc updown 5m 1773578400	2	$173	103	102	+1	open	—	03-15 12:42
btc updown 5m 1775834100	2	$164	95	93	+2	open	—	04-10 15:20
btc updown 5m 1774623000	3	$162	95	75	+20	open	—	03-27 14:54
btc updown 5m 1776286500	6	$161	146	140	+6	open	—	04-15 21:00
btc updown 5m 1774625400	2	$158	85	85	+0	open	—	03-27 15:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 11:36:55	btc updown 5m 1784633700	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xc258b1…
07-21 11:36:09	btc updown 5m 1784633700	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x4ec53d…
07-21 11:35:37	btc updown 5m 1784633700	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xf1b779…
07-21 11:33:12	btc updown 5m 1784633400	Down	SELL	4	33¢	$1	0x8c7da3…
07-21 11:32:36	btc updown 5m 1784633400	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x2519cd…
07-19 21:50:27	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Spain	SELL	139	93¢	$129	0x2c14df…
07-19 21:28:03	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Spain	BUY	139	71¢	$99	0x67cde6…
07-09 11:56:05	btc updown 5m 1783598100	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x940efc…
07-09 11:55:59	btc updown 5m 1783598100	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x5454a3…
07-09 11:55:59	btc updown 5m 1783598100	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x0fec0c…
07-09 11:55:53	btc updown 5m 1783598100	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xa39fb1…
07-09 11:55:41	btc updown 5m 1783598100	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x64fe25…
07-09 11:55:38	btc updown 5m 1783598100	Down	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x806c17…
07-09 11:51:19	btc updown 5m 1783597800	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xf49ad6…
07-09 11:51:10	btc updown 5m 1783597800	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xab06e8…
07-09 11:50:59	btc updown 5m 1783597800	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x14c7dd…
07-09 11:50:20	btc updown 5m 1783597800	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x35ce67…
07-09 11:49:20	btc updown 5m 1783597500	Down	SELL	10	82¢	$8	0x2ca505…
07-09 11:48:47	btc updown 5m 1783597500	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x0e87c9…
07-09 11:47:34	btc updown 5m 1783597500	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x14e146…
07-09 11:46:29	btc updown 5m 1783597500	Down	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0xfa8b7a…
07-09 11:44:16	btc updown 5m 1783597200	Up	SELL	8	31¢	$2	0x88549d…
07-09 11:41:31	btc updown 5m 1783597200	Up	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0xbe173c…
05-29 08:56:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	12	31¢	$4	0xf51229…
05-29 08:55:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	33	29¢	$10	0xe1c982…
05-29 08:54:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0xd0dd12…
05-29 08:54:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	71	11¢	$8	0x7ccb5d…
05-29 08:53:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	SELL	32	78¢	$25	0xe0ba8f…
05-29 08:53:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0xf181ac…
05-29 08:52:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x1b82ec…
05-29 08:52:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0xd35650…
05-29 08:51:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	36	31¢	$11	0xc43963…
05-29 08:45:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x136a69…
05-29 08:45:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0x40e25b…
05-29 08:45:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	35	28¢	$10	0x73778b…
05-29 08:44:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0x0556e5…
05-29 08:41:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	SELL	20	51¢	$10	0xecaa43…
05-29 08:41:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	SELL	14	51¢	$7	0xdc2d6f…
05-29 08:41:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	SELL	2	51¢	$1	0xd31483…
05-29 08:41:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	SELL	4	51¢	$2	0x841cbb…
05-29 08:41:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	SELL	7	51¢	$4	0xd771c5…
05-29 08:41:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	SELL	3	51¢	$1	0xd2f897…
05-29 08:41:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	SELL	24	51¢	$12	0x98ffc4…
05-29 08:41:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	SELL	2	51¢	$1	0x1af80b…
05-29 08:41:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	SELL	4	51¢	$2	0x0d7571…
05-29 08:41:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	56	27¢	$15	0x9a45ff…
05-29 08:41:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0xd96e8b…
05-29 08:39:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	20¢	$0	0xd3acf3…
05-29 08:39:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	20¢	$0	0x33a6bb…
05-29 08:38:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	SELL	63	67¢	$42	0xe3c9a9…
05-29 08:37:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	SELL	63	60¢	$38	0x5b11f8…
05-29 08:36:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x363330…
05-29 08:36:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0xc6beb0…
05-29 08:36:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0x4d8065…
05-29 08:36:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0x4702a3…
05-29 08:36:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x2cece2…
05-29 08:35:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x8ad167…
05-28 20:21:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0xa39f7d…
05-28 19:02:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	60	4¢	$2	0x09f61d…
05-28 19:00:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x03caab…
05-28 11:41:40	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28?	Up	SELL	9	38¢	$3	0xb2da69…
05-28 11:41:38	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28?	Up	SELL	176	38¢	$67	0x1d018e…
05-28 09:56:01	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28?	Up	SELL	45	48¢	$22	0xdf0283…
05-28 07:42:32	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28?	Up	BUY	12	45¢	$6	0xf98b05…
05-28 07:42:30	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28?	Up	BUY	18	45¢	$8	0xa564f1…
05-28 07:39:37	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28?	Up	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x6edd6b…
05-28 07:39:33	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28?	Up	BUY	196	47¢	$92	0xc01a70…
05-26 18:27:39	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26?	Up	BUY	24	2¢	$1	0x443d43…
05-26 18:23:43	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26?	Up	BUY	27	2¢	$1	0xdbc4ce…
05-26 18:23:11	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26?	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x9182e4…
05-26 18:23:09	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26?	Up	BUY	8	2¢	$0	0x4de3a1…
05-26 18:22:08	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26?	Up	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x08aa25…
05-26 18:16:58	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31?	Yes	SELL	234	18¢	$42	0x1fc103…
05-26 17:57:12	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31?	Yes	BUY	26	16¢	$4	0xf5a047…
05-26 17:57:05	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31?	Yes	BUY	1	16¢	$0	0x6dc39b…
05-26 17:57:01	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31?	Yes	BUY	1	16¢	$0	0xd6543b…
05-26 17:56:54	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31?	Yes	BUY	2	16¢	$0	0xdb996d…
05-26 17:56:42	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31?	Yes	BUY	2	16¢	$0	0xa66f34…
05-26 17:56:40	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31?	Yes	BUY	1	16¢	$0	0x26347e…
05-26 17:56:39	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31?	Yes	BUY	26	16¢	$4	0x7fd32a…
05-26 17:56:39	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31?	Yes	BUY	98	16¢	$16	0x20c8e3…
05-26 17:47:38	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31?	Yes	BUY	2	16¢	$0	0xab475e…
05-26 17:47:22	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31?	Yes	BUY	26	16¢	$4	0x32084a…
05-26 17:47:20	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31?	Yes	BUY	47	16¢	$8	0xd2c078…
05-26 17:31:34	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	22	54¢	$12	0x3bcfb8…
05-26 17:04:45	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xcf3565…
05-26 16:38:50	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x1cb430…
05-15 10:10:45	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	25	80¢	$20	0x96d86e…
05-13 16:32:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xc38552…
05-13 16:31:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	SELL	2	42¢	$1	0x07ae0b…
05-13 16:30:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x8a40d3…
05-13 16:27:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x1f8d3d…
05-12 07:43:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	SELL	2	56¢	$1	0x7b9552…
05-12 07:41:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x4e06cb…
05-11 10:10:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	SELL	2	72¢	$1	0x350443…
05-11 10:09:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xaa730b…
05-07 17:26:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xfd16a3…
05-07 16:31:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	3	56¢	$2	0xaaa744…
05-07 16:27:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xb3d85a…
05-07 16:26:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0xadf70c…