Loud-Motion-Berry — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$212

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

58.9%

Resolved

3,091

Trades

4,233

lifetime

Volume

$8.09K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-05-24

last 10-29 14:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 97 days

Categories

Crypto

95% 59% -$168

Other

5% 50% -$41

Politics

0% 0% -$2

Sports

0% 50% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

45 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?	No	+5	$3	82¢	$4	+$1	10-01 21:24
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	+5	$1	25¢	$1	$0	10-01 21:24
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	+3	$2	11¢	$0	-$1	10-21 03:26

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	31	$102	142	0	+142	Up	+$40	05-26 04:44
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	12	$97	73	73	+0	Up	+$47	05-26 05:10
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	64	$80	385	0	+385	Down	-$80	05-26 16:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	5	$79	112	0	+112	Down	+$33	06-02 00:14
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	26	$77	60	60	+0	Up	+$17	05-26 16:54
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	3	$75	123	0	+123	Up	-$5	06-01 23:58
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	18	$63	44	44	+0	Down	+$20	05-26 16:54
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	3	$62	36	36	+0	Down	+$7	05-31 23:22
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-05 20:30 UTC	3	$54	76	15	+61	Down	-$8	06-05 20:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	3	$52	81	0	+81	Down	+$29	06-02 00:17
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	23	$52	211	0	+211	Up	-$52	05-26 05:13
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	41	$51	180	0	+180	Down	-$51	05-26 16:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	6	$32	34	3	+31	Up	+$5	06-02 03:19
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	21	$31	47	0	+47	Down	-$3	05-26 04:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-05 19:35 UTC	3	$31	46	0	+46	Up	+$15	06-05 19:39
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	25	$31	81	0	+81	Down	-$31	05-26 16:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-05 23:10 UTC	2	$30	46	0	+46	Down	-$30	06-05 23:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	3	$29	57	0	+57	Down	+$27	06-02 00:09
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	1	$25	35	0	+35	Up	+$10	05-31 23:27
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	20	$25	38	0	+38	Down	+$13	05-26 15:49
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	20	$25	36	0	+36	Down	+$11	05-26 16:08
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	18	$22	34	0	+34	Down	+$11	05-26 16:41
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	17	$21	38	0	+38	Down	+$17	05-26 16:02
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	1	$20	20	0	+20	Down	+$0	05-26 04:44
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	16	$20	28	0	+28	Up	+$8	05-26 15:57
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	15	$19	26	0	+26	Up	+$7	05-26 16:38
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	15	$19	23	0	+23	Up	+$5	05-26 16:17
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	3	$16	40	0	+40	Up	-$16	05-26 04:47
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	2	$15	24	0	+24	Down	-$3	05-27 01:30
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	11	$14	17	0	+17	Down	+$3	05-26 16:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 14:15:52	Will Reservists – New Economic Party win less than 2.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0xbf18df…
10-24 06:09:54	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be 76-78%?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xd773a2…
10-23 15:54:35	Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 26-November 1?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x59489e…
10-21 03:26:53	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	55¢	$2	0x058427…
10-20 22:46:17	Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-10-19?	Yes	BUY	3	52¢	$2	0xa9eb4e…
10-17 08:45:54	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	3	41¢	$1	0x055865…
10-17 04:19:48	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x4924f5…
10-17 03:17:30	Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 7.5% to 8.5%?	Yes	BUY	3	41¢	$1	0x6b1540…
10-16 10:44:46	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	89¢	$3	0xa79687…
10-16 05:04:01	Will Trudy peak at Category 4?	Yes	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x8c9645…
10-15 12:50:43	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x0a6800…
10-15 08:36:07	Will Gangwon FC win on 2026-10-15?	Yes	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x7dc220…
10-15 08:18:02	Will Getafe CF win on 2026-10-15?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x9283e4…
10-15 03:02:05	Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%?	Yes	BUY	3	41¢	$1	0x20007c…
10-15 03:02:04	Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 10% to 12.5%?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xcfac72…
10-14 19:07:57	Will Boluspor win on 2026-10-14?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xd3d04b…
10-14 01:24:58	Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 67% to 68%?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x787373…
10-14 00:33:12	Will CD Tapatio win on 2026-10-13?	Yes	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0xd255cb…
10-13 20:17:10	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-13?	Yes	BUY	3	55¢	$2	0xbbaabf…
10-13 08:58:22	United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 84% to 85%?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x7d53b5…
10-13 06:49:25	Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-10-13?	Yes	BUY	3	49¢	$1	0x117ad4…
10-13 00:20:38	will iran sabotage undersea internet cables by december 31	No	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xb6a1d7…
10-12 20:48:11	AZ to score first vs. MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva?	Yes	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x0656b7…
10-10 23:22:13	Will Simon peak at Category 4?	Yes	BUY	3	80¢	$2	0x145d4e…
10-10 20:27:49	Will SS Lazio win on 2026-10-11?	Yes	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x4ae1ac…
10-10 18:24:54	Will Sportivo Trinidense win on 2026-10-10?	Yes	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x7b492f…
10-10 15:31:36	Will Australia win?	Yes	BUY	3	45¢	$1	0xce86c9…
10-10 15:31:36	Will the match end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x19ed30…
10-10 14:46:36	Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	3	24¢	$1	0x7f75a8…
10-10 00:55:22	Progressive (PGR) Q3 combined ratio 86% to 89%?	Yes	BUY	3	43¢	$1	0x42357a…
10-10 00:55:22	Progressive (PGR) Q3 combined ratio 89% to 92%?	Yes	BUY	3	42¢	$1	0x12957d…
10-09 07:01:30	Will Isaias peak at Category 3?	Yes	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0xb1a8de…
10-08 20:49:36	Will Koguma peak as a Very strong typhoon?	Yes	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0xe29b30…
10-07 18:00:19	Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-10-12?	Yes	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0xd3f385…
10-06 22:38:11	Will OpenRouter process between 165T and 175T tokens the week of October 5?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xeb8773…
10-06 18:37:47	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st inning tied?	Yes	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x0dec73…
10-05 23:06:58	Will Antigua and Barbuda win on 2026-10-06?	Yes	BUY	3	41¢	$1	0x4c80b9…
10-04 07:55:59	Will Choi-wan peak as a Violent typhoon?	Yes	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x405ccc…
10-04 07:49:16	Will OpenRouter process between 160T and 165T tokens the week of September 28?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x585d24…
10-03 07:50:05	Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-10-03?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x7803f5…
10-03 07:50:05	Will HUS Agadir vs. Maghreb AS de Fès end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x36cd35…
10-02 13:24:27	Will Wydad Sportif Témara vs. Union Touarga Sports end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x90a46b…
10-01 21:24:56	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?	No	SELL	6	51¢	$3	0x7bdcdd…
10-01 21:24:54	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$1	0xfa39be…
10-01 21:24:54	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?	No	BUY	6	62¢	$4	0xedd65f…
10-01 21:24:53	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?	No	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x8dcf12…
10-01 10:08:24	Will Guadeloupe win on 2026-10-02?	Yes	BUY	3	42¢	$1	0xaf3ece…
09-30 21:55:45	over 50m committed to the jumper public sale	No	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0xe5a6e7…
09-29 23:28:36	Will Albania win on 2026-10-06?	Yes	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0xd7b727…
09-29 08:51:33	Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 25 bps at the October meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	80¢	$2	0x7aa9f9…
09-29 05:16:20	Will Madrid host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	3	38¢	$1	0x812ccd…
09-29 05:16:11	Will Renan Santos win between 2% and 4% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	3	42¢	$1	0x055ab3…
09-29 05:16:03	Will the peak wind gust in Wellington be 90 to 101 km/h in September?	Yes	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0x1c0adc…
09-29 05:15:56	Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	57¢	$5	0xbcfe5d…
09-29 05:15:42	Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?	Yes	SELL	12	61¢	$7	0x125aef…
09-29 05:15:09	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 950m and 960m by September 30?	Yes	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xe942c0…
09-23 19:06:59	Will Renan Santos win between 2% and 4% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xebb74d…
09-22 04:01:51	Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20?	Yes	BUY	1	36¢	$0	0x695502…
09-21 01:43:34	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	3	85¢	$3	0x7cc6a7…
09-20 16:43:22	Will the peak wind gust in Wellington be 90 to 101 km/h in September?	Yes	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0xf98110…
09-19 05:10:04	Tottenham Hotspur FC to score first vs. Aston Villa FC?	Yes	BUY	3	57¢	$2	0x2369dc…
09-19 04:20:28	Will FC Juárez vs. Tigres de la UANL end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	3	42¢	$1	0x32deec…
09-18 19:10:18	Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-09-18?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x5a043c…
09-18 10:55:51	Will FC Adhyaksa Bekasi win on 2026-09-18?	Yes	BUY	3	57¢	$2	0x3e8ce7…
09-18 08:06:00	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30?	Yes	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x941f6b…
09-18 08:06:00	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 950m and 960m by September 30?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x81ed9c…
09-11 18:21:03	Will Pisa SC win on 2026-09-11?	Yes	BUY	3	52¢	$2	0x935642…
09-11 13:46:30	Will Christian Democrats (KD) win between 5% and 7% of all valid votes?	Yes	BUY	3	55¢	$2	0xdeef74…
09-01 15:30:58	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x869af5…
09-01 15:30:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x5cea38…
08-27 18:18:04	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-08-28?	Yes	BUY	3	54¢	$2	0x996865…
08-27 18:08:09	Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-08-27?	Yes	BUY	3	45¢	$1	0xac87c0…
08-27 08:35:33	Will Grüne win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x0c768a…
08-27 06:12:15	Will the match end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	3	57¢	$2	0xa0fbcc…
08-21 21:51:09	Will CS Herediano win on 2026-08-22?	Yes	BUY	3	43¢	$1	0x62972f…
08-20 22:13:16	Will GitHub's longest critical incident in August 2026 be between 6 and 12 hours?	Yes	BUY	3	49¢	$1	0x572f09…
08-20 05:42:28	Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	51¢	$2	0x3665ba…
08-20 05:42:27	Will the Bank of Korea hold at the August 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	47¢	$1	0xf43b4c…
08-19 17:54:28	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-08-23?	Yes	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x88a701…
08-19 14:59:00	Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-08-19?	Yes	BUY	3	52¢	$2	0x2b0d1a…
08-19 07:57:21	Will ŠK Slovan Bratislava win on 2026-08-19?	Yes	BUY	3	54¢	$2	0xcee2a3…
08-18 13:06:45	Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-08-18?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x623adb…
08-18 05:55:13	Will AEK win on 2026-08-18?	Yes	BUY	3	40¢	$1	0x9ecf3e…
08-17 12:53:31	Will Samsunspor win on 2026-08-17?	Yes	BUY	3	42¢	$1	0x158bae…
08-17 11:24:06	Elche CF to score first vs. RC Deportivo A Coruña?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xb51955…
08-17 11:24:04	RC Deportivo A Coruña to score first vs. Elche CF?	Yes	BUY	3	53¢	$2	0x07ba6e…
08-16 23:59:25	Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-08-20?	Yes	BUY	3	56¢	$2	0x44cdd1…
08-16 22:27:51	Will CF América win on 2026-08-16?	Yes	BUY	3	51¢	$2	0x8b28a0…
08-16 20:08:30	Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-08-19?	Yes	BUY	3	47¢	$1	0xf0881c…
08-16 12:25:01	Will Nottingham Forest win on 2026-08-16?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x50a81c…
08-16 11:37:42	Will Rams Başakşehir FK win on 2026-08-16?	Yes	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0xc497fe…
08-14 04:52:27	Will India win?	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x715dba…
08-14 01:36:24	Will Bangladesh win?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xc4a0e8…
08-14 01:36:24	Will Australia win?	Yes	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x0bf838…
08-13 07:13:58	Will Denver Summit FC win on 2026-08-14?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x4bc40f…
08-13 07:13:57	Will San Diego Wave FC win on 2026-08-14?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xa4ff9d…
08-11 23:14:46	Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-08-12?	Yes	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xe8daa9…
08-11 06:04:45	Will CDPJuniorFC win on 2026-08-10?	Yes	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x12be62…
08-11 05:37:52	Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2026-08-12?	Yes	BUY	3	44¢	$1	0x6ad8d6…
08-10 19:55:21	Will FC Red Bull Salzburg win on 2026-08-13?	Yes	BUY	3	41¢	$1	0x176ee6…