Stingy-Estimate — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$19

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.2%

Resolved

290

Trades

290

lifetime

Volume

$3.29K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-09

last 11-03 09:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 228 days

Categories

Other

95% 100% +$5

Politics

5% 89% -$23

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

73 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C or higher on May 14?	1	$26	26	+26	No	+$0	05-14 14:35
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$25	26	+26	No	-$25	05-15 04:54
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or below on May 2?	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	05-02 13:36
Trump out as President by April 30?	1	$25	25	+25	No	+$0	04-30 08:46
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	1	$25	26	+26	Yes	+$1	05-03 03:30
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 29?	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-29 12:56
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 28?	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-28 10:35
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 27?	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-28 01:33
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 27?	1	$24	25	+25	No	+$0	04-27 10:27
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on April 26?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	04-27 01:28
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 26?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	04-26 09:06
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C or higher on April 25?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	04-25 12:03
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	04-24 10:38
highest temperature in seattle on april 23 2026 64 65f	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	04-24 01:55
highest temperature in tokyo on april 23 2026 19c	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	04-23 07:17
highest temperature in manila on april 22 2026 35c	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	04-22 10:12
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	1	$23	24	+24	No	+$1	04-21 04:21
highest temperature in lucknow on april 20 2026 43c	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	04-20 16:42
highest temperature in wellington on april 20 2026 17c	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	04-20 03:41
highest temperature in karachi on april 19 2026 33c	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-19 16:19
highest temperature in wellington on april 19 2026 20c	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	04-19 04:41
highest temperature in karachi on april 18 2026 33c	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-18 15:13
highest temperature in wellington on april 18 2026 18c	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-18 07:34
highest temperature in tokyo on april 17 2026 17c	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-17 10:05
highest temperature in seattle on april 16 2026 54 55f	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-17 03:44
highest temperature in ankara on april 16 2026 23c	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	04-16 15:33
highest temperature in wellington on april 16 2026 18c	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-16 08:23
highest temperature in miami on april 15 2026 80 81f	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-16 04:15
highest temperature in shanghai on april 15 2026 19c	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	04-15 10:53
highest temperature in denver on april 14 2026 56 57f	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-15 03:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-03 09:30:09	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on November 3?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x8afbb4…
11-02 13:08:46	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on November 2?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x340841…
10-31 17:46:00	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on November 1?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xe31712…
10-31 09:16:49	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xe19e99…
10-30 09:31:27	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on October 30?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x0eb64c…
10-29 07:45:10	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on October 29?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$8	0x7849d4…
10-28 05:00:43	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on October 28?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x757520…
10-27 07:59:51	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on October 27?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe7f4e3…
10-26 05:35:09	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on October 26?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6dbf94…
10-24 06:53:38	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on October 24?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc094c4…
10-22 09:54:11	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on October 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x924172…
10-20 04:37:47	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on October 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xccf34b…
10-19 07:12:36	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on October 19?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5ecd64…
10-18 07:36:09	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on October 18?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6dd2d5…
10-17 07:41:21	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on October 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6916fc…
10-16 08:08:18	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on October 16?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xbbd3d2…
10-15 07:18:20	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on October 15?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7c40fa…
10-14 07:14:11	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1b18a8…
10-13 05:35:28	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on October 13?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x70cd2c…
10-12 04:27:45	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on October 12?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x69ae97…
10-11 03:15:38	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C or below on October 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc86014…
10-08 07:15:56	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on October 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xac42c3…
10-07 08:56:59	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on October 7?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd09afe…
10-06 07:15:28	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on October 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x11cf23…
10-04 08:29:08	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on October 4?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe81cf2…
10-03 04:18:27	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on October 3?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xbc0454…
10-02 07:24:18	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 2?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x56c05b…
10-02 03:15:47	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on October 1?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe0741b…
10-01 07:54:57	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on October 1?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4670de…
09-30 09:29:45	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on September 30?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x49105b…
09-29 08:13:08	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on September 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4499f8…
09-28 08:17:08	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on September 28?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe44dca…
09-27 08:14:15	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on September 27?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4e5f14…
09-25 07:56:35	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on September 25?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4a0cba…
09-24 06:44:08	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on September 24?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8305c9…
09-23 05:17:32	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on September 23?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xadd2e9…
09-22 06:16:12	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on September 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x35eb4c…
09-21 08:25:30	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on September 21?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4b5729…
09-20 03:09:33	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 63°F or below on September 19?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7ec3df…
09-19 07:43:40	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on September 19?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x624d7e…
09-18 01:12:58	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on September 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0ad60b…
09-17 03:45:19	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C or below on September 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf075bd…
09-16 08:48:28	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on September 16?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xfa6da0…
09-15 23:37:01	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on September 15?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x818c9e…
09-15 02:29:51	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on September 15?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd0cb88…
09-14 02:46:40	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on September 14?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x84e5e4…
09-13 12:52:45	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on September 13?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x418f6b…
09-12 08:21:57	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on September 12?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x063658…
09-11 06:28:54	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C or below on September 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x90fa29…
09-10 01:50:13	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on September 10?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x71aa4d…
09-09 01:02:45	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on September 9?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2b1e79…
09-08 01:11:01	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on September 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xdbe1e1…
09-07 01:53:00	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on September 7?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x55d700…
09-06 01:17:07	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on September 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x29e516…
09-05 09:22:48	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xae38e0…
09-04 08:22:03	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on September 4?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xbb684c…
09-03 07:11:52	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on September 3?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd96412…
09-01 01:27:21	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on August 31?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x93d8af…
08-30 01:02:40	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 29?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x25fd3a…
08-29 05:54:18	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on August 29?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6cbe8b…
08-28 02:02:19	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 27?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x015e0b…
08-27 01:20:39	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on August 27?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xf66566…
08-26 02:04:45	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe79c18…
08-25 08:12:01	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on August 25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x998c0b…
08-24 07:22:58	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on August 24?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xfe1eae…
08-23 07:24:45	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on August 23?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x24ed81…
08-22 06:32:58	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x18abeb…
08-21 01:30:37	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on August 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x036a26…
08-20 08:05:46	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x35e2f5…
08-19 07:25:01	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on August 19?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1fcd0d…
08-18 01:15:48	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on August 18?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x11baa6…
08-17 06:09:24	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 17?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd5e616…
08-16 10:46:42	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5e3073…
08-15 02:36:16	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 15?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa5e1ac…
08-14 06:21:21	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on August 14?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8bccc9…
08-13 01:00:01	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on August 12?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3d6c62…
08-12 06:50:13	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 12?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf01494…
08-11 00:27:39	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on August 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x517b6a…
08-10 00:29:43	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on August 10?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd85548…
08-09 01:00:10	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa48342…
08-08 07:02:18	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf761bb…
08-07 00:29:11	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd8292b…
08-06 00:26:33	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on August 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6ec388…
08-05 00:38:24	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on August 5?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe86bf8…
08-04 03:29:21	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 4?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x39b466…
08-03 01:05:17	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 102-103°F on August 2?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x686788…
08-02 00:25:17	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on August 1?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x55f682…
08-01 00:20:00	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 31?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf65637…
07-31 07:16:18	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on July 31?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x39aff8…
07-30 00:22:14	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x075ed9…
07-29 01:15:20	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on July 28?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x759908…
07-28 00:25:13	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 27?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3cd85f…
07-27 07:21:13	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7b4ac8…
07-26 01:13:00	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on July 25?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x674481…
07-25 00:33:49	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on July 24?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1190e9…
07-24 06:11:37	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on July 24?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xdc87c8…
07-23 01:08:58	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 94-95°F on July 22?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7efdf2…
07-22 01:35:27	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 98-99°F on July 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x795e6f…
07-20 23:38:10	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on July 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x81ac83…
07-19 22:30:54	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on July 19?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x932b48…