Ill-Informed-Corporatism — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$39.2K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

40.2%

Resolved

966

Trades

8,205

lifetime

Volume

$201.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$25

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 10-31 13:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 211 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 49% -$39,236

Other

0% 43% -$9

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

50 active days in 12wk • peak 92 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-16 02:45 UTC	1	$3.3K	6,000	+6,000	Up	+$2,700	01-16 02:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-12 21:15 UTC	15	$2.8K	5,200	+5,200	Down	-$2,808	01-12 21:15
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-17 20:30 UTC	12	$2.8K	5,200	+5,200	Down	-$2,808	01-17 20:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-16 23:45 UTC	29	$2.7K	5,200	+5,200	Up	-$2,704	01-16 23:45
bitcoin up or down january 9 7am et	123	$2.7K	5,200	+5,200	Down	+$2,498	01-09 12:01
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-15 22:15 UTC	1	$2.7K	5,200	+5,200	Up	-$2,652	01-15 22:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-07 08:30 UTC	53	$2.6K	5,000	+5,000	Down	+$2,378	01-07 08:30
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-14 18:30 UTC	24	$2.6K	5,200	+5,200	Down	-$2,620	01-14 18:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-08 08:45 UTC	59	$2.6K	5,000	+5,000	Down	+$2,400	01-08 08:45
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-15 22:45 UTC	1	$2.6K	5,200	+5,200	Down	-$2,586	01-15 22:42
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 09:10 UTC	156	$2.5K	4,500	+4,500	Up	-$2,516	06-24 09:10
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-08 09:00 UTC	16	$2.5K	4,900	+4,900	Up	-$2,468	01-08 09:00
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-15 20:30 UTC	1	$2.4K	5,200	+5,200	Up	-$2,446	01-15 20:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-05 06:00 UTC	1	$2.4K	5,000	+5,000	Up	-$2,422	01-05 05:58
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-23 18:30 UTC	82	$2.4K	4,400	+4,400	Down	-$2,419	06-23 18:30
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-12 17:45 UTC	19	$2.3K	5,000	+5,000	Up	-$2,344	01-12 17:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-15 19:45 UTC	1	$2.1K	5,200	+5,200	Up	-$2,131	01-15 19:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-28 13:10 UTC	94	$2.0K	4,000	+4,000	Up	-$2,040	02-28 13:10
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 08:00 UTC	31	$2.0K	4,000	+4,000	Down	+$2,000	02-11 08:00
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-14 09:45 UTC	93	$2.0K	4,000	+4,000	Down	+$2,000	02-14 09:45
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 13:00 UTC	1	$2.0K	4,000	+4,000	Up	-$2,000	02-03 13:00
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-18 10:00 UTC	94	$2.0K	4,000	+4,000	Up	+$2,000	02-18 10:01
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-02 22:00 UTC	65	$2.0K	4,000	+4,000	Up	-$2,000	02-02 22:00
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 20:45 UTC	113	$2.0K	4,000	+4,000	Up	-$2,000	02-11 20:45
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-06 13:00 UTC	63	$2.0K	4,000	+4,000	Up	+$2,000	02-06 13:00
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-02 21:30 UTC	140	$2.0K	4,000	+4,000	Up	-$1,960	02-02 21:31
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-02 07:30 UTC	135	$2.0K	4,000	+4,000	Up	-$1,960	02-02 07:30
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-24 10:00 UTC	117	$2.0K	4,000	+4,000	Down	-$1,956	02-24 10:00
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-29 20:45 UTC	1	$1.9K	4,000	+4,000	Up	+$2,093	01-29 20:45
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-02 22:45 UTC	1	$1.9K	4,000	+4,000	Down	-$1,880	02-02 22:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 13:29:54	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x2de076…
10-24 10:51:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x157f7c…
10-24 10:50:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0xe2f733…
10-22 15:20:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0xdb4b26…
10-19 12:30:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1,000	45¢	$445	0x9f02ae…
10-19 12:20:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0xca7d71…
10-19 12:20:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	48	46¢	$22	0x86a61f…
10-19 12:20:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	48	46¢	$22	0x468c78…
10-17 04:29:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 04:30 UTC	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x532c52…
10-15 10:26:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x59e4ff…
10-15 10:24:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x6ac31a…
10-15 10:05:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xbcc27c…
10-15 10:05:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xb0cf13…
10-15 09:55:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0xb28f59…
10-15 09:44:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x555833…
10-14 17:10:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 17:10 UTC	Down	BUY	150	41¢	$62	0x322219…
10-14 17:00:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 17:00 UTC	Down	BUY	150	37¢	$56	0xddec6c…
10-14 16:54:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 16:55 UTC	Up	BUY	150	42¢	$63	0x76c30c…
10-14 16:39:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 16:40 UTC	Down	BUY	150	41¢	$61	0xf28f28…
10-14 16:29:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 16:30 UTC	Down	BUY	150	40¢	$60	0x8e3463…
10-14 16:09:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 16:10 UTC	Down	BUY	100	39¢	$39	0xa41353…
10-14 15:50:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 15:50 UTC	Down	BUY	3	42¢	$1	0xf48513…
10-14 15:50:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 15:50 UTC	Down	BUY	60	42¢	$25	0xa707d2…
10-14 15:50:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 15:50 UTC	Down	BUY	30	42¢	$13	0x05ed7b…
10-14 15:50:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 15:50 UTC	Down	BUY	9	42¢	$4	0xe119b0…
10-14 15:50:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 15:50 UTC	Down	BUY	9	42¢	$4	0x2611a2…
10-14 15:49:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 15:50 UTC	Down	BUY	40	42¢	$17	0xea3659…
10-14 15:35:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 15:35 UTC	Up	BUY	150	40¢	$60	0x77d8b7…
10-14 15:19:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 15:20 UTC	Up	BUY	150	36¢	$54	0x34efaf…
10-14 15:09:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 15:10 UTC	Down	BUY	130	41¢	$53	0x46ea78…
10-14 14:59:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 15:00 UTC	Down	BUY	150	42¢	$64	0x5ea1ac…
10-14 14:45:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 14:45 UTC	Up	BUY	140	41¢	$57	0x6547c5…
10-14 14:34:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 14:35 UTC	Down	BUY	150	37¢	$56	0x9975b4…
10-14 14:25:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 14:25 UTC	Down	BUY	100	41¢	$41	0xa6eceb…
10-14 13:44:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 13:45 UTC	Up	BUY	80	42¢	$34	0x645f4c…
10-14 13:34:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 13:35 UTC	Up	BUY	100	36¢	$36	0x8e0b0c…
10-14 13:24:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 13:25 UTC	Down	BUY	50	45¢	$22	0x98532b…
10-14 13:14:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 13:15 UTC	Up	BUY	100	36¢	$36	0x2a7fbf…
10-14 13:04:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 13:05 UTC	Up	BUY	50	36¢	$18	0x66b273…
10-14 12:55:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 12:55 UTC	Down	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0xbf34cf…
10-14 12:44:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 12:45 UTC	Down	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0x58e1e9…
10-01 09:55:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	25	50¢	$12	0xedd843…
10-01 09:55:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xe6d90b…
10-01 09:55:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	24	50¢	$12	0xdcb415…
10-01 09:55:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xbfdef1…
10-01 09:55:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x001219…
10-01 09:55:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0xf5fc23…
10-01 09:55:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x77ee7e…
10-01 09:55:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x466876…
10-01 09:55:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x30edc3…
10-01 09:55:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x94eabc…
10-01 09:55:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x872523…
10-01 09:55:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	18	50¢	$9	0x74f896…
10-01 09:55:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x61605a…
10-01 09:55:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x2e9420…
10-01 09:55:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x05591c…
10-01 09:55:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x9e9a6c…
10-01 09:55:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x54c707…
10-01 09:19:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-01 09:20 UTC	Up	BUY	200	47¢	$94	0xfef826…
09-29 14:45:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 14:45 UTC	Down	BUY	1,000	49¢	$491	0xd86e5d…
09-29 09:30:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 09:30 UTC	Up	BUY	200	46¢	$93	0xed94bf…
09-27 10:23:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-27 10:20 UTC	Down	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x58cf04…
09-27 10:22:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-27 10:20 UTC	Up	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x578482…
09-26 10:30:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 10:30 UTC	Down	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x32d659…
09-25 09:34:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-25 09:35 UTC	Down	BUY	52	50¢	$26	0xbf1f61…
09-25 09:34:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-25 09:35 UTC	Down	BUY	35	50¢	$18	0xaf83b0…
09-25 09:34:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-25 09:35 UTC	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x080051…
09-25 09:34:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-25 09:35 UTC	Down	BUY	21	50¢	$11	0x55687b…
09-25 09:34:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-25 09:35 UTC	Down	BUY	84	50¢	$42	0x142eef…
09-25 09:34:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-25 09:35 UTC	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x067d75…
09-24 16:10:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-24 16:10 UTC	Down	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0xe50254…
09-24 16:10:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-24 16:10 UTC	Down	BUY	14	50¢	$7	0xb44917…
09-24 16:10:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-24 16:10 UTC	Down	BUY	7	50¢	$4	0x7ddbfc…
09-24 16:10:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-24 16:10 UTC	Down	BUY	38	50¢	$19	0x748e05…
09-24 16:10:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-24 16:10 UTC	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x400312…
09-24 16:10:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-24 16:10 UTC	Down	BUY	22	50¢	$11	0x18f92b…
09-24 16:10:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-24 16:10 UTC	Down	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x0ebfb7…
09-24 16:10:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-24 16:10 UTC	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x8bf7f3…
09-24 16:10:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-24 16:10 UTC	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x6ec6f2…
09-24 16:10:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-24 16:10 UTC	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0xde931e…
09-24 16:10:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-24 16:10 UTC	Down	BUY	42	50¢	$21	0x91dfef…
09-22 14:50:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xf620e6…
09-22 14:50:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	55	50¢	$27	0x5771ef…
09-22 14:50:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x35b872…
09-22 14:50:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	95	50¢	$48	0x23ddc7…
09-22 14:50:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x1f7d5a…
09-22 14:50:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x0f0f98…
09-22 13:55:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x8effa5…
09-22 13:55:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	26	50¢	$13	0x7f46d1…
09-22 13:55:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x78b83a…
09-22 13:55:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	199	50¢	$100	0x5852cb…
09-22 13:55:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	11	50¢	$5	0x3e0f44…
09-22 13:55:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x20e17e…
09-22 13:55:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	65	50¢	$32	0xf71191…
09-22 13:55:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x7825dc…
09-22 13:55:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x5f3072…
09-22 13:55:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x7c2183…
09-22 13:55:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	0	50¢	$0	0x4b7632…
09-22 13:55:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	23	50¢	$12	0xf70ece…
09-22 13:55:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	51	50¢	$26	0xeee581…