Thoughtful-Rent — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$554

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

45.4%

Resolved

945

Trades

2,975

lifetime

Volume

$4.63K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-22

last 10-25 03:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 94 days

Categories

Crypto

86% 24% -$304

Other

7% 11% -$133

Politics

6% 8% -$131

Sports

1% 14% +$21

Tech

0% 0% -$8

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 28 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	244	$69	12,520	12,638	-118	No	-$43	02-11 21:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 08:15 UTC	5	$53	49	49	+0	Down	+$37	06-24 08:19
will bitcoin dip to 75k in january 2026	5	$42	330	0	+330	No	-$42	01-31 21:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	4	$41	41	41	+0	Down	+$37	09-09 18:34
will bitcoin reach 80k february 2 8	3	$38	113	113	+0	No	-$27	02-05 14:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-08 10:00 UTC	7	$36	165	49	+116	Down	+$8	06-08 10:04
will bitcoin dip to 70k in january 2026	22	$35	6,230	0	+6,230	No	-$35	02-01 01:32
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	26	$33	998	1,670	-672	No	+$27	02-16 20:07
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 21:00 UTC	3	$30	28	28	+0	Up	+$26	07-18 21:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 17:50 UTC	2	$27	27	27	+0	Down	+$19	07-06 17:54
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-04 15:45 UTC	5	$27	210	20	+190	Down	$0	02-04 15:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-04 16:00 UTC	4	$26	140	30	+110	Down	-$6	02-04 16:14
will bitcoin dip to 55k in february 2026 644 513 935	3	$25	200	200	+0	No	+$10	02-17 07:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	4	$25	28	20	+8	Up	+$11	06-08 16:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-08 10:05 UTC	3	$24	19	19	+0	Down	+$12	06-08 10:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	6	$24	33	18	+15	Down	+$6	10-25 03:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-04 07:15 UTC	20	$24	1,250	0	+1,250	Down	-$24	02-04 07:29
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	2	$23	20	20	+0	Yes	+$17	06-17 19:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 09:30 UTC	7	$23	23	18	+5	Up	+$6	06-24 09:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	4	$22	33	22	+11	Up	+$16	10-21 21:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 18:50 UTC	9	$22	33	20	+13	Up	+$19	07-17 18:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-26 10:10 UTC	8	$21	21	19	+2	Down	+$9	06-26 10:14
will bitcoin dip to 65k in february 2026 372 697	2	$21	12	12	+0	Yes	+$2	02-05 18:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 19:15 UTC	8	$21	29	19	+9	Down	+$7	07-17 19:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-25 16:55 UTC	8	$20	26	9	+17	Up	-$8	06-25 16:58
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-08 17:05 UTC	3	$20	38	28	+9	Up	+$8	06-08 17:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-25 11:00 UTC	8	$20	22	22	+0	Up	+$10	07-25 11:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-08 15:35 UTC	7	$20	26	15	+11	Down	+$3	06-08 15:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 12:35 UTC	6	$20	59	19	+40	Up	+$8	06-24 12:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-26 10:50 UTC	4	$20	32	10	+23	Down	-$2	06-26 10:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 03:35:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x72dba2…
10-25 03:35:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x85bf9b…
10-25 03:32:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x23778c…
10-25 03:31:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x682445…
10-25 03:30:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x647078…
10-25 03:29:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x623281…
10-25 03:28:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xea960e…
10-25 03:28:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	SELL	18	82¢	$15	0x85c3d7…
10-25 03:28:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x4a4c26…
10-25 03:28:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x4f01b8…
10-25 03:25:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xb07ed3…
10-25 03:23:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x325dd9…
10-25 03:23:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x7679b0…
10-25 03:20:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xcddc09…
10-25 03:18:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x87c590…
10-25 03:17:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x239181…
10-25 03:16:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	SELL	6	78¢	$5	0xc4ab37…
10-25 03:15:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x024712…
10-25 03:15:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x60388b…
10-22 06:27:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x88ff88…
10-22 06:23:49	Will Ram Ben-Barak be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xc9e76e…
10-22 06:15:23	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	No	BUY	26	11¢	$3	0xda97dd…
10-22 06:13:17	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	43	7¢	$3	0xbab033…
10-22 04:40:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x1224b1…
10-22 04:33:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x635cc1…
10-22 03:57:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x1575db…
10-22 03:56:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x249c1f…
10-22 03:54:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x08d193…
10-22 03:49:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x2aadb6…
10-22 03:45:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Up	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x051e58…
10-22 03:36:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xb72e4a…
10-22 03:35:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x6bec37…
10-22 03:35:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x3818e6…
10-22 03:35:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x8469e3…
10-22 03:33:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xeb1133…
10-21 22:04:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	BUY	820	0¢	$1	0x7e7005…
10-21 22:02:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xbb449b…
10-21 22:01:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x527161…
10-21 22:00:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xdd29bc…
10-21 21:59:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x4da9bc…
10-21 21:58:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xbd13a6…
10-21 21:57:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	SELL	4	54¢	$2	0xaba004…
10-21 21:55:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xecdb94…
10-21 21:55:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	SELL	4	76¢	$3	0x5c7cc3…
10-21 21:55:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x32e0e6…
10-21 21:52:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x6cc36a…
10-21 21:48:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xd1b1cc…
10-21 21:47:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xc8466b…
10-21 21:44:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xdfd799…
10-21 21:43:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	SELL	8	77¢	$6	0x05f3c8…
10-21 21:43:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xe083a9…
10-21 21:39:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x5a14f5…
10-21 21:39:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	SELL	22	87¢	$19	0xa45895…
10-21 21:37:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x85ddb1…
10-21 21:37:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x2eb0b8…
10-21 21:34:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x633288…
10-21 21:29:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x31b43f…
10-21 21:27:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0x0659b7…
10-21 21:22:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x750f61…
10-21 21:21:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xc4801c…
10-21 21:19:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xcb758e…
10-21 21:14:36	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	118	1¢	$1	0x04c654…
10-21 21:13:11	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	1¢	$3	0x20d1c9…
09-21 19:24:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 19:20 UTC	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xcd0bd5…
09-21 19:24:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 19:20 UTC	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xafda55…
09-21 19:23:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 19:20 UTC	Up	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x6aa455…
09-21 19:17:13	Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of summit?	Yes	BUY	84	2¢	$2	0xb1c550…
09-20 14:43:07	Will Manchester City FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0x66d5fb…
09-09 19:28:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xb02b04…
09-09 19:28:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x1601ec…
09-09 19:27:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x09c7a1…
09-09 19:23:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0xfcc498…
09-09 19:23:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	SELL	5	89¢	$5	0xa9b7cc…
09-09 19:22:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x9e95c7…
09-09 18:44:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x92e52c…
09-09 18:43:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xbb3ba8…
09-09 18:42:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xf59860…
09-09 18:42:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x95d66f…
09-09 18:38:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x49bd0a…
09-09 18:37:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	57	7¢	$4	0xc03d00…
09-09 18:34:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	SELL	33	96¢	$32	0x5f942f…
09-09 18:34:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x582b2a…
09-09 18:33:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	SELL	8	92¢	$7	0xed86a5…
09-09 18:32:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x80fb86…
09-09 18:29:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x8ec977…
09-09 18:28:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xf88cb7…
09-09 18:27:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0xf117d0…
09-09 18:27:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xfeb5a4…
09-09 18:23:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0x23839c…
09-09 18:23:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	SELL	12	90¢	$11	0x8dec6c…
09-09 18:21:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0x407888…
09-09 18:19:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	50	1¢	$0	0x8e3d55…
08-03 18:48:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 18:45 UTC	Up	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0x1506c1…
08-03 18:46:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 18:45 UTC	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xb40370…
08-03 18:46:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 18:45 UTC	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x0b3965…
08-03 18:43:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 18:40 UTC	Up	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0x593e45…
08-03 18:43:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 18:40 UTC	Up	BUY	2	3¢	$0	0x3fbec1…
08-03 18:43:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 18:40 UTC	Up	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0x83b3d2…
08-03 18:43:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 18:40 UTC	Up	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0x2f4d80…
08-03 18:43:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 18:40 UTC	Up	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x1cc6c8…