First-Peony — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$19

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.2%

Resolved

298

Trades

298

lifetime

Volume

$3.41K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-09

last 11-05 00:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 228 days

Categories

Other

95% 100% +$5

Politics

5% 89% -$24

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

73 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 14?	1	$26	26	+26	Yes	+$0	05-14 15:02
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$26	27	+27	No	-$26	05-15 04:59
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on May 2?	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	05-02 13:47
Trump out as President by April 30?	1	$25	25	+25	No	+$0	04-30 08:49
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	1	$25	26	+26	Yes	+$1	05-03 03:33
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 29?	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-29 12:58
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on April 28?	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-28 10:45
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on April 27?	1	$25	25	+25	No	+$0	04-28 01:39
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 27?	1	$25	25	+25	No	+$0	04-27 10:29
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on April 26?	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-27 01:30
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on April 26?	1	$25	25	+25	No	+$0	04-26 09:13
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on April 25?	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-25 12:10
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?	1	$25	25	+25	No	+$0	04-24 09:04
highest temperature in toronto on april 23 2026 18c	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-24 02:54
highest temperature in tokyo on april 23 2026 19c	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-23 07:19
highest temperature in jakarta on april 22 2026 35c	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-22 10:16
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	1	$24	25	+25	No	+$1	04-21 15:50
highest temperature in wellington on april 21 2026 15corhigher	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	04-21 06:25
highest temperature in buenos aires on april 20 2026 20c	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	04-21 01:21
highest temperature in karachi on april 20 2026 34c	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	04-20 16:45
highest temperature in wellington on april 20 2026 15c	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	04-20 06:09
highest temperature in lucknow on april 19 2026 42c	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	04-19 16:07
highest temperature in wellington on april 19 2026 18c	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	04-19 05:40
highest temperature in moscow on april 18 2026 10c	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	04-18 15:18
highest temperature in wellington on april 18 2026 19c	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	04-18 07:40
highest temperature in manila on april 17 2026 35c	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	04-17 10:19
highest temperature in seattle on april 16 2026 54 55f	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	04-17 03:46
highest temperature in busan on april 16 2026 21c	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	04-16 12:01
highest temperature in los angeles on april 15 2026 68 69f	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	04-16 05:52
highest temperature in istanbul on april 15 2026 18c	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	04-15 14:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 00:31:16	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 7°C or below on November 5?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x503856…
11-03 17:56:12	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on November 4?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xddf072…
11-03 09:14:39	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on November 3?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x120f31…
11-02 12:30:25	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on November 2?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x42a29f…
11-01 09:49:54	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x694e02…
10-31 07:39:09	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on October 31?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xb70af2…
10-30 09:04:43	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x7d34da…
10-29 07:42:41	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on October 29?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x6d9115…
10-28 04:58:11	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on October 28?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x57de36…
10-27 07:57:20	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on October 27?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x6b448c…
10-26 05:31:38	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on October 26?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x0024e7…
10-24 06:51:08	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on October 24?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x83aead…
10-23 07:13:54	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on October 23?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$8	0xdecbc3…
10-21 08:57:27	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 13°C on October 21?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$8	0x941bd2…
10-19 06:43:23	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on October 19?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x21e6c9…
10-18 07:28:47	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on October 18?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa213e8…
10-17 07:21:42	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on October 17?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc20b39…
10-16 05:12:15	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on October 16?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5c8913…
10-15 06:37:41	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on October 15?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x13e009…
10-14 07:11:37	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5cf90e…
10-13 14:01:55	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on October 13?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xef7871…
10-13 04:32:23	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on October 13?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x71d476…
10-12 04:25:21	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on October 12?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x162e50…
10-11 03:13:14	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C or below on October 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7ba048…
10-08 05:16:01	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x628e74…
10-07 08:54:20	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on October 7?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7a2bb3…
10-06 07:13:00	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on October 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9a055a…
10-04 08:26:38	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on October 4?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6a58f2…
10-03 03:02:09	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on October 2?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd51e60…
10-02 07:21:44	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 2?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x27a463…
10-02 03:13:20	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on October 1?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x29b3e8…
10-01 07:36:00	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on October 1?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6569d7…
09-30 07:38:53	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on September 30?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x58840f…
09-29 07:13:39	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa7fe69…
09-28 08:14:48	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on September 28?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0681d4…
09-27 02:29:11	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on September 27?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x51b5f2…
09-25 07:54:18	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on September 25?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7d79a6…
09-24 06:41:56	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on September 24?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x480d46…
09-23 05:15:17	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on September 23?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe720c1…
09-22 06:13:58	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on September 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb6942e…
09-21 08:22:06	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on September 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x38256d…
09-20 03:07:19	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 63°F or below on September 19?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc09aab…
09-19 06:48:42	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on September 19?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6fe361…
09-18 01:10:43	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on September 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x858742…
09-17 03:43:01	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C or below on September 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x681a52…
09-16 08:45:15	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on September 16?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb85c26…
09-15 23:34:48	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on September 15?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf09cf8…
09-15 02:27:37	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on September 15?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xdf6c59…
09-14 02:44:27	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on September 14?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3c2e03…
09-13 12:50:28	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on September 13?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9b204f…
09-12 07:28:27	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on September 12?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x293f99…
09-11 06:26:42	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C or below on September 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1daa55…
09-10 01:32:19	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on September 10?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xdba8ac…
09-09 01:01:01	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on September 9?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7074e4…
09-08 01:07:42	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on September 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6ce1a6…
09-07 01:50:39	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on September 7?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x86452a…
09-06 01:14:46	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on September 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x24cbbc…
09-05 09:20:27	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x493c67…
09-04 08:19:34	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on September 4?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4340c5…
09-03 01:27:55	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C or higher on September 3?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x20060d…
09-01 01:24:16	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on August 31?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xef04e9…
08-30 00:14:31	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on August 29?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x29f225…
08-29 05:50:30	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xad5a74…
08-28 01:30:09	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on August 28?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7508a0…
08-27 01:18:18	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on August 27?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xbdffed…
08-26 02:02:25	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf2058d…
08-25 06:42:27	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on August 25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x59a500…
08-24 07:18:19	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on August 24?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6eba27…
08-23 07:22:28	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on August 23?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xad0267…
08-22 06:30:40	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xada262…
08-21 01:28:18	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on August 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2e014d…
08-20 05:37:46	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on August 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x119f8f…
08-19 07:22:46	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on August 19?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1f808b…
08-18 00:19:40	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on August 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9e34c3…
08-17 06:07:09	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 17?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x69a23a…
08-16 01:52:40	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 16?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x649d36…
08-15 02:34:04	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 15?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x05937c…
08-14 01:22:36	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 14?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf13d5b…
08-13 00:27:01	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on August 13?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x173c1e…
08-12 06:47:57	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 12?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc0a0e1…
08-11 00:25:24	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on August 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x213299…
08-10 00:27:19	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on August 10?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7dec30…
08-09 07:54:36	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 9?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x10f7f3…
08-09 00:28:12	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on August 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x95b477…
08-08 06:58:49	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 38°C on August 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x369d04…
08-07 00:26:53	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9b426b…
08-06 00:24:15	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on August 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf77a3d…
08-05 00:36:08	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on August 5?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3fb29f…
08-04 03:26:56	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 4?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd3ebee…
08-03 00:19:00	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on August 2?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x87a013…
08-02 00:21:39	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb83cde…
08-01 00:16:57	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 31?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x74137b…
07-31 07:12:56	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on July 31?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2d5b3d…
07-30 00:17:18	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on July 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd2153f…
07-29 01:12:27	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 28?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe2fd62…
07-28 00:23:00	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 27?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0fa976…
07-27 06:54:01	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C or higher on July 27?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x494775…
07-26 01:07:22	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 25?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xfeca53…
07-25 00:31:30	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on July 24?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6bdd31…
07-24 01:19:16	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on July 24?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe4edc8…