Ill-Informed-Commission — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$11.5K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.4%

Resolved

7,700

Trades

19,360

lifetime

Volume

$3.45M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$178

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-10

last 10-22 18:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 282 days

Categories

Crypto

86% 100% +$11,164

Other

13% 100% +$279

Sports

0% 100% +$9

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

76 active days in 12wk • peak 140 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	2	$6.0K	6,000	0	+6,000	Up	+$33	09-05 19:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	3	$6.0K	6,000	0	+6,000	Up	+$33	10-09 05:11
Ethereum Up or Down on May 19?	2	$5.2K	2,600	2,600	+0	Up	+$0	05-22 12:47
bitcoin above 78k on april 24	3	$5.2K	2,600	2,600	+0	No	+$9	04-25 00:40
xrp up or down august 13 2026 12am et	2	$3.9K	4,000	0	+4,000	Down	+$123	08-13 05:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-09 04:25 UTC	43	$3.5K	3,500	0	+3,500	Down	+$17	04-09 04:31
ethereum up or down march 8 2am et	2	$3.4K	1,700	1,700	+0	Down	+$0	03-09 03:12
xrp up or down march 8 2am et	2	$3.4K	1,700	1,700	+0	Down	+$0	03-09 03:12
Solana Up or Down - August 24, 4PM ET	2	$3.0K	3,036	0	+3,036	Up	+$30	08-24 21:08
Solana Up or Down - July 22, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	1	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	Down	+$3	07-22 09:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 01:50 UTC	1	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	Down	+$3	07-17 01:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 13:55 UTC	13	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	Up	+$3	07-08 14:01
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 09:15 UTC	1	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	Down	+$3	07-17 09:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	1	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	Down	+$3	09-19 07:27
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-30 20:15 UTC	1	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	Down	+$3	06-30 20:20
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-11 08:50 UTC	1	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	Up	+$3	07-11 08:56
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-12 17:50 UTC	1	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	Down	+$3	07-12 17:55
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-02 07:30 UTC	3	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	Up	+$3	08-02 07:46
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 15:15 UTC	3	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	Down	+$3	06-30 15:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	1	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	Up	+$3	09-03 00:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 06:20 UTC	1	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	Down	+$3	07-16 06:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 09:25 UTC	2	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	Down	+$3	07-06 09:30
bitcoin up or down july 3 2026 12am et	1	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	Up	+$3	07-03 05:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-21 15:05 UTC	6	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	Up	+$3	07-21 15:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	2	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	Down	+$3	07-15 21:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	1	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	Down	+$3	07-12 09:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	1	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	Down	+$3	09-07 00:56
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-03 00:15 UTC	1	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	Down	+$3	07-03 00:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-24 07:45 UTC	1	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	Up	+$3	08-24 07:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	3	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	Up	+$3	07-02 17:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-22 18:16:32	BNB Up or Down - October 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xcc2571…
10-22 17:45:51	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x1b81c7…
10-22 16:25:33	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2ab6c0…
10-22 16:21:27	Solana Up or Down - October 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x9da640…
10-22 16:11:15	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x51a872…
10-22 16:05:11	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6180d4…
10-22 15:26:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xec6210…
10-22 15:25:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	241	100¢	$241	0x967f66…
10-22 15:25:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x7d8e92…
10-22 15:25:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	282	100¢	$282	0xb3b7f4…
10-22 15:25:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x0f855c…
10-22 14:56:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xbc83af…
10-22 14:55:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x6f910f…
10-22 14:55:48	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xcde37c…
10-22 14:30:06	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x8eaaf3…
10-22 14:15:56	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x4edc0c…
10-22 14:05:42	XRP Up or Down - October 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x5086b9…
10-22 13:46:09	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x2855e0…
10-22 13:45:09	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x7ce7a3…
10-22 13:45:08	XRP Up or Down - October 22, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x9f735b…
10-22 13:35:48	BNB Up or Down - October 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x5b3a44…
10-22 13:15:11	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xdb9ebb…
10-22 12:45:41	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x50819f…
10-22 12:25:12	Solana Up or Down - October 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xcdffea…
10-22 12:00:03	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 22, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0xc659b1…
10-22 10:41:09	Solana Up or Down - October 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x05b9a0…
10-22 09:01:32	Solana Up or Down - October 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x750f51…
10-22 06:23:19	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x0eb94d…
10-22 06:21:58	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x1f0473…
10-22 04:55:41	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x41341f…
10-22 04:25:59	Solana Up or Down - October 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x68199a…
10-22 04:11:36	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Down	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xe15bae…
10-22 04:05:27	Solana Up or Down - October 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x62f595…
10-22 03:45:05	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x57e3c3…
10-22 03:15:12	Solana Up or Down - October 21, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x252d41…
10-22 02:55:56	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xc58952…
10-22 02:55:56	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Down	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xa925be…
10-22 02:31:06	XRP Up or Down - October 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x718cfc…
10-22 02:30:05	XRP Up or Down - October 21, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x0b0bff…
10-22 02:15:50	Solana Up or Down - October 21, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x675e5e…
10-22 01:55:26	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Down	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x969b46…
10-22 01:55:12	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x6f3cf4…
10-22 01:55:05	Solana Up or Down - October 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Down	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xa11ece…
10-22 01:55:03	Solana Up or Down - October 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x6251a7…
10-22 01:16:33	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4d8a30…
10-22 01:15:45	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x335e07…
10-22 00:45:56	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x1fc5af…
10-22 00:01:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3,000	100¢	$2,997	0xfb8245…
10-21 23:25:14	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x20e475…
10-21 23:15:08	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x6fabf6…
10-21 22:01:18	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x28452c…
10-21 21:06:00	Solana Up or Down - October 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xc65e72…
10-21 21:05:53	Solana Up or Down - October 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x741c6a…
10-21 20:15:45	Solana Up or Down - October 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xd2c1c9…
10-21 20:01:11	Solana Up or Down - October 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x7b2780…
10-21 19:16:21	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x288388…
10-21 19:16:20	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x2ba25c…
10-21 19:16:18	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x16d66f…
10-21 19:16:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x74f9ec…
10-21 17:30:05	XRP Up or Down - October 21, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x965387…
10-21 16:46:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x3a54b0…
10-21 16:45:44	XRP Up or Down - October 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x201903…
10-21 16:45:35	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x43fafa…
10-21 14:56:02	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1,493	100¢	$1,491	0x6ffcf5…
10-21 14:25:08	Solana Up or Down - October 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x03634f…
10-21 13:15:36	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x61ef41…
10-21 13:00:09	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xe1554a…
10-21 12:42:39	Hyperliquid Up or Down - August 5, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x4eea49…
10-21 11:51:30	Solana Up or Down - October 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x1e7116…
10-21 11:45:15	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x4c72cc…
10-21 11:15:32	XRP Up or Down - October 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc9ca0e…
10-21 09:46:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	183	100¢	$183	0x3dcca4…
10-21 09:45:17	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf0c492…
10-21 09:35:06	Solana Up or Down - October 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x0ee419…
10-21 09:16:24	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	127	100¢	$127	0x28555e…
10-21 09:15:42	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x0a5538…
10-21 08:46:06	Solana Up or Down - October 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x8a153b…
10-21 07:25:27	Solana Up or Down - October 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x4ec2c4…
10-21 07:16:23	Solana Up or Down - October 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x4dc879…
10-21 07:15:15	Solana Up or Down - October 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xccb038…
10-21 04:41:23	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x407c73…
10-21 04:15:53	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x694a4c…
10-21 03:01:20	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x1a1225…
10-21 02:35:51	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xe323e4…
10-21 01:25:24	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xfea619…
10-21 01:25:24	Solana Up or Down - October 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x3f4542…
10-21 00:56:14	XRP Up or Down - October 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x88e8dd…
10-21 00:45:42	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x96fe46…
10-21 00:35:30	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x5fab1e…
10-20 22:45:20	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x9bc64c…
10-20 22:00:18	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x828e67…
10-20 21:27:05	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb37fef…
10-20 21:27:05	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x41054f…
10-20 21:26:59	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb34b8d…
10-20 21:20:33	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x5d7bb6…
10-20 19:50:12	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xf2aaab…
10-20 19:50:11	Solana Up or Down - October 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x96145c…
10-20 19:00:36	Solana Up or Down - October 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x77891d…
10-20 17:16:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xf0dafd…
10-20 14:45:24	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x5e9880…