Innocent-Subcomponent — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$20

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

76.0%

Resolved

Trades

162

lifetime

Volume

$1.66K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-12

last 07-01 11:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Crypto

79% 82% $-16

Other

11% — —

Politics

9% 50% $-4

Tech

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 41 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (17) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	4	$81	56	56	+0	open	—	05-14 14:30
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 11?	2	$80	40	40	+0	Yes	+$0	05-11 18:22
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	4	$65	67	0	+67	open	—	05-20 05:20
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	2	$52	4,774	4,774	+0	open	—	04-12 19:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	5	$51	42	32	+10	open	—	05-14 13:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	3	$46	35	35	+0	Down	+$2	05-11 18:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	2	$45	30	30	+0	Down	+$5	05-11 19:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	2	$43	26	26	+0	open	—	05-14 14:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	2	$43	23	23	+0	open	—	05-24 16:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	4	$42	27	27	+0	Up	+$2	05-13 14:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	2	$42	24	24	+0	open	—	05-14 14:03
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 5?	2	$41	44	0	+44	Yes	+$3	05-05 12:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	2	$41	21	21	+0	open	—	05-24 21:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	2	$40	21	21	+0	open	—	05-24 22:00
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 7?	1	$40	48	0	+48	No	$-40	05-07 04:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	4	$39	33	33	+0	Up	$-1	05-13 20:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	4	$33	26	26	+0	open	—	05-14 12:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	3	$33	34	18	+16	Down	+$9	05-14 05:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	4	$26	16	16	+0	Down	+$2	05-13 22:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	3	$26	53	19	+33	Up	+$4	05-11 19:07
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	3	$25	26	0	+26	open	—	05-07 04:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	2	$24	19	19	+0	Down	+$4	05-11 18:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	2	$22	15	15	+0	Up	+$2	05-13 20:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	2	$21	12	12	+0	Up	+$1	05-13 20:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	2	$21	12	12	+0	open	—	05-14 13:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	2	$21	15	15	+0	Down	+$1	05-13 20:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	2	$21	15	15	+0	Down	+$1	05-13 14:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	2	$21	11	11	+0	Up	+$1	05-13 14:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	05-14 09:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	2	$21	16	16	+0	Down	+$1	05-13 20:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-01 11:03:56	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	15	6¢	$1	0xb2f92c…
06-23 05:33:17	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	No	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0xb5334d…
06-17 20:16:41	fifwc eng hrv 2026 06 17 btts	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x008573…
06-12 08:04:00	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xa7eb1b…
06-11 19:37:16	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x6e9a51…
05-28 09:34:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x61d28b…
05-28 09:33:22	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	No	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x3d2b64…
05-28 09:32:40	Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?	No	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x110742…
05-28 09:31:52	Claude 4.8 released by June 15?	Yes	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x5c03ca…
05-24 22:54:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	SELL	4	1¢	$0	0x1c33e9…
05-24 22:54:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0x265198…
05-24 22:53:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0xa22e97…
05-24 22:47:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	BUY	67	3¢	$2	0xf0082d…
05-24 22:03:58	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	No	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x5e1ecf…
05-24 22:03:44	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x5165b7…
05-24 22:00:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	SELL	21	99¢	$20	0x3b3114…
05-24 21:58:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x03517f…
05-24 21:55:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	SELL	21	99¢	$21	0xd8e5e5…
05-24 21:53:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x27e412…
05-24 19:23:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	24	84¢	$20	0x6ce3c2…
05-24 16:29:36	Will Ariana Grande have a #1 hit in the US in May?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xed4331…
05-24 16:15:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0x79332b…
05-24 16:14:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0x09771c…
05-20 05:20:08	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x1e9ef0…
05-20 05:14:46	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x6541ec…
05-14 15:37:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0xb2d7cb…
05-14 15:33:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	30	67¢	$20	0x0804b2…
05-14 14:55:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x359a8c…
05-14 14:30:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x51f090…
05-14 14:28:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x02a2ef…
05-14 14:26:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	SELL	36	59¢	$21	0x8dcb5b…
05-14 14:25:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	36	56¢	$20	0xc6fcb2…
05-14 14:22:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	SELL	4	54¢	$2	0x1bb316…
05-14 14:22:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0xdfdc7f…
05-14 14:17:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	SELL	26	86¢	$23	0xdbe911…
05-14 14:16:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	26	76¢	$20	0x388b82…
05-14 14:03:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	SELL	24	92¢	$22	0xe24a11…
05-14 14:03:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	24	83¢	$20	0xcc9f5b…
05-14 13:57:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	SELL	7	23¢	$2	0x16c40a…
05-14 13:57:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x315d66…
05-14 13:56:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0xa23987…
05-14 13:53:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x175a54…
05-14 13:52:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	SELL	32	68¢	$21	0x366e2d…
05-14 13:51:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xef0585…
05-14 13:51:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xbe69ff…
05-14 13:51:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0xd9b7a6…
05-14 13:50:53	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x340c42…
05-14 13:50:48	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xdaaa68…
05-14 13:42:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	SELL	12	95¢	$11	0x8619ea…
05-14 13:41:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0x4b3df0…
05-14 13:39:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x6e8cc2…
05-14 13:37:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x8fc201…
05-14 12:47:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	SELL	7	90¢	$6	0xe50f07…
05-14 12:46:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0xaadc68…
05-14 12:46:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	SELL	20	59¢	$12	0xe497d8…
05-14 12:45:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x9d4fd8…
05-14 09:32:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	SELL	11	98¢	$11	0x2cb93e…
05-14 09:32:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0xd355da…
05-14 05:23:46	Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xafe4ef…
05-14 05:14:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x1d6336…
05-14 05:13:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	SELL	18	69¢	$13	0x4bc137…
05-14 05:11:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x81e5e4…
05-13 22:59:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	SELL	3	79¢	$2	0x3e3c97…
05-13 22:58:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0xefecbd…
05-13 22:56:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	SELL	13	88¢	$11	0xf8b8c7…
05-13 22:56:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0xad5fef…
05-13 20:59:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	SELL	12	97¢	$11	0xf13e35…
05-13 20:58:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0x4e16f9…
05-13 20:53:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	SELL	16	69¢	$11	0xbe6f70…
05-13 20:52:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0xfb7b93…
05-13 20:45:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	SELL	15	72¢	$11	0xe5053d…
05-13 20:45:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x69584c…
05-13 20:42:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	SELL	15	78¢	$12	0x76cb10…
05-13 20:42:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x90c0bd…
05-13 20:39:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	SELL	16	78¢	$13	0x839b9c…
05-13 20:38:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x16a8eb…
05-13 20:38:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	SELL	16	40¢	$7	0xb8b338…
05-13 20:35:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x186530…
05-13 20:29:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x47a628…
05-13 20:28:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0xdd5220…
05-13 20:28:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0x8dc727…
05-13 20:26:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	SELL	4	54¢	$2	0x890131…
05-13 20:26:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xb52c0f…
05-13 14:33:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xf4c765…
05-13 14:23:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	SELL	12	94¢	$11	0x5d67b4…
05-13 14:23:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0xd78b43…
05-13 14:21:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	SELL	15	76¢	$11	0x99cab7…
05-13 14:21:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0xf2f4da…
05-13 14:18:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	SELL	15	70¢	$10	0xa9501e…
05-13 14:18:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x294582…
05-13 14:14:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	SELL	11	96¢	$11	0x144c03…
05-13 14:13:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x71a99b…
05-13 14:08:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x8b9522…
05-13 14:07:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	SELL	4	11¢	$0	0xe02c72…
05-13 14:04:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0xedb477…
05-13 14:01:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	SELL	15	74¢	$11	0x77f6db…
05-13 14:00:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x694f01…
05-13 13:58:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	SELL	11	97¢	$11	0xa696cc…
05-13 13:57:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x0ae88a…
05-13 07:19:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xe527fb…