Innocent-Subcomponent — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$79

Unrealized P&L

+$4

Hit rate

77.6%

Resolved

113

Trades

194

lifetime

Volume

$2.00K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-12

last 07-11 21:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 43 days

Categories

Crypto

68% 80% -$42

Other

22% 70% -$37

Politics

8% 90% +$8

Tech

1% 67% -$8

Sports

0% 100% +$0

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-11).

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No		-20	-$7	15¢	$-3	+$4	04-30 11:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	4	$81	56	56	+0	Down	+$1	05-14 14:30
Will France win on 2026-06-30?	1	$80	82	0	+82	Yes	+$2	06-30 22:12
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 11?	2	$80	40	40	+0	Yes	+$0	05-11 18:22
Weed rescheduled by June 30?	2	$70	31	42	-11	No	-$1	05-11 13:00
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	4	$65	67	0	+67	No	+$2	05-20 05:20
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	2	$52	4,774	4,774	+0	No	-$14	04-12 19:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	5	$51	42	32	+10	Down	+$2	05-14 13:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	3	$46	35	35	+0	Down	+$2	05-11 18:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	3	$45	23	23	+0	Down	+$1	05-24 19:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	2	$45	30	30	+0	Down	+$5	05-11 19:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	2	$43	26	26	+0	Up	+$3	05-14 14:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	2	$43	23	23	+0	Up	+$3	05-24 16:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	4	$42	27	27	+0	Up	+$2	05-13 14:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	2	$42	24	24	+0	Up	+$2	05-14 14:03
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 5?	2	$41	44	0	+44	Yes	+$3	05-05 12:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	2	$41	21	21	+0	Up	+$1	05-24 21:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	2	$40	21	21	+0	Down	+$0	05-24 22:00
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 7?	1	$40	48	0	+48	No	-$40	05-07 04:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	4	$39	33	33	+0	Up	-$1	05-13 20:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	4	$33	26	26	+0	Up	+$3	05-14 12:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	3	$33	34	18	+16	Down	+$9	05-14 05:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	4	$26	16	16	+0	Down	+$2	05-13 22:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	3	$26	53	19	+33	Up	+$4	05-11 19:07
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	3	$25	26	0	+26	No	+$1	05-07 04:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	2	$24	19	19	+0	Down	+$4	05-11 18:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	2	$22	15	15	+0	Up	+$2	05-13 20:42
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	2	$22	12	12	+0	Yes	+$2	06-11 21:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	2	$21	12	12	+0	Up	+$1	05-13 20:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	2	$21	12	12	+0	Down	+$1	05-14 13:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	2	$21	15	15	+0	Down	+$1	05-13 20:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-11 21:17:26	Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	BUY	9	21¢	$2	0x727fc2…
07-01 11:03:56	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	15	6¢	$1	0xb2f92c…
06-30 22:12:37	Will France win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	BUY	82	98¢	$80	0xeec99b…
06-30 21:50:14	Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x430f59…
06-25 21:46:01	Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	No	SELL	13	18¢	$2	0xdde2e2…
06-25 21:08:56	Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	No	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x39e89b…
06-24 05:29:05	Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24?	No	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0xdaec3c…
06-23 05:35:20	Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	No	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x6bbd7a…
06-23 05:34:22	Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xe09886…
06-23 05:33:17	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	No	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0xb5334d…
06-19 20:37:50	Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x8dabdf…
06-19 10:33:17	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xf1fb1b…
06-17 20:16:41	fifwc eng hrv 2026 06 17 btts	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x008573…
06-17 20:15:13	Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia?	No	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0xfd92c3…
06-15 21:14:21	Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x327fd7…
06-15 21:11:34	Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xb1a806…
06-12 08:04:00	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xa7eb1b…
06-12 08:02:51	Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x5175da…
06-11 21:34:43	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xb1941c…
06-11 19:37:16	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x6e9a51…
06-11 19:18:33	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0xaf47ef…
05-28 09:34:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x61d28b…
05-28 09:33:22	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	No	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x3d2b64…
05-28 09:32:40	Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?	No	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x110742…
05-28 09:31:52	Claude 4.8 released by June 15?	Yes	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x5c03ca…
05-25 05:14:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	SELL	11	1¢	$0	0x28bdf5…
05-25 05:14:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0xf77469…
05-24 22:54:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	SELL	4	1¢	$0	0x1c33e9…
05-24 22:54:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0x265198…
05-24 22:53:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0xa22e97…
05-24 22:50:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0xa10dfc…
05-24 22:47:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	BUY	67	3¢	$2	0xf0082d…
05-24 22:03:58	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	No	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x5e1ecf…
05-24 22:03:44	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x5165b7…
05-24 22:00:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	SELL	21	99¢	$20	0x3b3114…
05-24 21:58:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x03517f…
05-24 21:55:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	SELL	21	99¢	$21	0xd8e5e5…
05-24 21:53:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x27e412…
05-24 19:30:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0xac0465…
05-24 19:28:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x6cae03…
05-24 19:28:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x650c11…
05-24 19:23:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	24	84¢	$20	0x6ce3c2…
05-24 16:29:50	Will "Michael" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x569936…
05-24 16:29:36	Will Ariana Grande have a #1 hit in the US in May?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xed4331…
05-24 16:18:52	Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in May?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x434a47…
05-24 16:18:42	Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in May?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xc90f92…
05-24 16:15:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0x79332b…
05-24 16:14:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0x09771c…
05-20 05:20:08	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x1e9ef0…
05-20 05:19:45	Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xbbbe91…
05-20 05:14:46	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x6541ec…
05-14 15:37:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0xb2d7cb…
05-14 15:33:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	30	67¢	$20	0x0804b2…
05-14 14:55:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x359a8c…
05-14 14:30:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x51f090…
05-14 14:28:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x02a2ef…
05-14 14:26:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	SELL	36	59¢	$21	0x8dcb5b…
05-14 14:25:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	36	56¢	$20	0xc6fcb2…
05-14 14:22:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	SELL	4	54¢	$2	0x1bb316…
05-14 14:22:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0xdfdc7f…
05-14 14:17:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	SELL	26	86¢	$23	0xdbe911…
05-14 14:16:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	26	76¢	$20	0x388b82…
05-14 14:03:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	SELL	24	92¢	$22	0xe24a11…
05-14 14:03:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	24	83¢	$20	0xcc9f5b…
05-14 13:57:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	SELL	7	23¢	$2	0x16c40a…
05-14 13:57:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x315d66…
05-14 13:56:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0xa23987…
05-14 13:53:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x175a54…
05-14 13:52:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	SELL	32	68¢	$21	0x366e2d…
05-14 13:51:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xef0585…
05-14 13:51:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xbe69ff…
05-14 13:51:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0xd9b7a6…
05-14 13:50:53	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x340c42…
05-14 13:50:48	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xdaaa68…
05-14 13:42:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	SELL	12	95¢	$11	0x8619ea…
05-14 13:41:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0x4b3df0…
05-14 13:39:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x6e8cc2…
05-14 13:37:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x8fc201…
05-14 12:47:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	SELL	7	90¢	$6	0xe50f07…
05-14 12:46:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0xaadc68…
05-14 12:46:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	SELL	20	59¢	$12	0xe497d8…
05-14 12:45:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x9d4fd8…
05-14 09:32:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	SELL	11	98¢	$11	0x2cb93e…
05-14 09:32:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0xd355da…
05-14 05:23:46	Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xafe4ef…
05-14 05:14:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x1d6336…
05-14 05:13:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	SELL	18	69¢	$13	0x4bc137…
05-14 05:11:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x81e5e4…
05-13 22:59:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	SELL	3	79¢	$2	0x3e3c97…
05-13 22:58:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0xefecbd…
05-13 22:56:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	SELL	13	88¢	$11	0xf8b8c7…
05-13 22:56:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0xad5fef…
05-13 20:59:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	SELL	12	97¢	$11	0xf13e35…
05-13 20:58:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0x4e16f9…
05-13 20:53:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	SELL	16	69¢	$11	0xbe6f70…
05-13 20:52:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0xfb7b93…
05-13 20:45:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	SELL	15	72¢	$11	0xe5053d…
05-13 20:45:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x69584c…
05-13 20:42:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	SELL	15	78¢	$12	0x76cb10…
05-13 20:42:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x90c0bd…