Luminous-Cassock — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$364

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

85.8%

Resolved

1,731

Trades

5,646

lifetime

Volume

$267.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$47

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-05 17:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 237 days

Categories

Politics

44% 83% +$117

Crypto

37% 94% +$460

Other

18% 81% -$746

Sports

0% 73% -$32

Tech

0% 80% -$162

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

32 active days in 12wk • peak 38 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US military draft authorized in 2026?	No		+5	$5	98¢	$5	+$0	05-06 09:51
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes		+5	$3	76¢	$4	+$1	10-29 08:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin up or down january 28 1pm et	2	$3.8K	1,900	1,900	+0	Down	+$0	01-28 19:12
will israel strike gaza on january 31 2026	6	$3.6K	3,625	10	+3,615	Yes	+$4	01-31 11:39
will israel strike gaza on february 2 2026	9	$3.6K	2,100	2,000	+100	No	-$500	02-03 23:46
israel strikes iran by january 24 2026	6	$3.3K	1,683	1,683	+0	No	+$49	01-25 07:49
israel strikes iran by january 25 2026	7	$2.9K	1,501	1,501	-0	No	+$64	01-27 08:03
will israel strike lebanon on february 1 2026	2	$2.5K	2,500	0	+2,500	Yes	+$2	02-01 13:23
will israel strike gaza on january 27 2026	16	$2.4K	2,435	700	+1,735	Yes	-$619	01-28 11:00
elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 440 459	11	$2.2K	2,250	0	+2,250	No	+$58	01-23 07:26
will israel strike gaza on february 12 2026	8	$2.1K	2,074	5	+2,069	Yes	$0	02-13 08:55
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 00:15 UTC	8	$2.0K	2,000	0	+2,000	Up	+$2	02-03 00:29
israel strikes iran by january 26 2026	6	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$22	01-27 08:07
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-05 12:15 UTC	5	$2.0K	1,500	500	+1,000	Down	-$29	02-05 12:30
will israel strike gaza on january 26 2026	21	$1.9K	1,993	0	+1,993	No	+$72	01-28 22:21
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 18:00 UTC	3	$1.9K	1,900	0	+1,900	Down	+$2	01-28 18:14
will israel strike gaza on january 28 2026	49	$1.8K	1,861	86	+1,775	No	+$99	01-30 11:52
will israel strike lebanon on february 20 2026	24	$1.7K	1,722	0	+1,722	Yes	+$14	02-20 17:19
will israel strike lebanon on february 5 2026	5	$1.5K	1,505	0	+1,505	Yes	+$5	02-05 18:13
will israel strike gaza on january 29 2026	2	$1.5K	1,500	0	+1,500	Yes	+$2	01-29 17:00
will israel strike lebanon on february 16 2026	2	$1.5K	1,500	0	+1,500	Yes	+$2	02-16 06:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-06 01:00 UTC	7	$1.5K	1,500	0	+1,500	Up	+$4	02-06 01:14
will israel strike gaza on february 1 2026	9	$1.5K	1,500	0	+1,500	No	+$7	02-03 23:45
will israel strike gaza on february 16 2026	24	$1.5K	1,496	0	+1,496	No	+$18	02-18 23:56
will israel strike lebanon on january 25 2026	6	$1.5K	1,455	0	+1,455	Yes	+$2	01-25 11:49
elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 280 299	6	$1.4K	1,400	0	+1,400	No	+$4	02-02 00:48
will israel strike lebanon on february 2 2026	6	$1.4K	1,400	0	+1,400	Yes	+$6	02-02 09:29
will israel strike gaza on february 17 2026	7	$1.4K	1,379	0	+1,379	Yes	+$2	02-17 11:00
will israel strike lebanon on january 31 2026	9	$1.3K	1,337	0	+1,337	Yes	+$1	01-31 21:23
elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 380 399	15	$1.3K	1,373	0	+1,373	No	+$42	01-22 19:11
will israel strike lebanon on february 12 2026	13	$1.3K	1,260	10	+1,250	Yes	+$11	02-12 21:04
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	16	$1.2K	1,250	75	+1,175	No	$0	02-01 00:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 17:57:40	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	5	42¢	$2	0xc3bbb3…
11-04 11:30:34	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xbc6065…
11-04 11:21:57	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xdd3b22…
11-04 01:52:46	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	2¢	$0	0xecac5b…
11-04 01:30:01	Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xf2b2f3…
11-04 01:29:07	Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	96¢	$57	0x35b661…
11-04 01:28:18	Will the Republicans win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0xec08ad…
11-04 01:28:18	Will the Republicans win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x0209a0…
11-04 01:25:43	Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x7afdfd…
11-04 01:24:36	Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	96¢	$143	0xbc78d8…
11-04 01:19:01	Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x15017b…
11-04 01:17:52	Will the Republican Party win the FL-13 House seat?	Yes	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x643983…
11-04 01:14:34	Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	91¢	$7	0xb8000c…
11-04 01:04:10	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	32¢	$32	0x221dcc…
11-04 01:03:54	Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	96¢	$31	0x7c5c9b…
11-04 01:03:52	Will the Republican Party win the FL-13 House seat?	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xc5ec5a…
11-04 01:03:07	Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x68d78f…
11-04 01:02:27	Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	202	99¢	$200	0xc430fa…
11-04 01:00:43	Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x240ba3…
11-04 00:59:48	Will the Republican Party win the FL-13 House seat?	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x7df4a1…
11-04 00:59:48	Will the Republican Party win the FL-13 House seat?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x5ae756…
11-04 00:59:33	Will the Republican Party win the FL-13 House seat?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xb83368…
11-04 00:57:22	Will the Republican Party win the KY-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	43	100¢	$43	0xe1519d…
11-04 00:57:22	Will the Republican Party win the KY-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	93	100¢	$93	0x72a962…
11-04 00:51:03	Will the Republicans win the West Virginia Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x2d7cc3…
11-04 00:37:39	Will the Republicans win the West Virginia Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x7d7b34…
11-04 00:33:06	Will the Republicans win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x8295ef…
11-04 00:27:09	Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x5a6587…
11-04 00:19:39	Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x4a441e…
11-04 00:19:28	Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x515672…
11-04 00:19:25	Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x0c291e…
11-04 00:19:21	Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xea13c7…
11-04 00:19:19	Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xd26691…
11-04 00:18:40	Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	86¢	$4	0xddbae3…
11-04 00:12:09	Will the Republican Party win the KY-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x3e574b…
11-04 00:11:58	Will the Republican Party win the KY-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0xb082e1…
11-04 00:11:58	Will the Republican Party win the KY-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x2a3a88…
11-04 00:11:07	Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x4104dc…
11-04 00:07:40	Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	81¢	$81	0x94955f…
11-03 23:09:19	Will the Republicans win the Arkansas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x10bbe5…
11-03 17:33:39	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Guam gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xe9c331…
11-03 17:31:37	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Guam gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x41c941…
11-03 13:53:51	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	45	96¢	$43	0x019426…
11-03 13:51:12	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x0c11c4…
11-03 08:20:55	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xb6a237…
11-03 08:04:37	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x054fd6…
11-03 01:05:31	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	No	SELL	5	88¢	$4	0xe090c4…
11-03 01:04:18	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xcc202f…
11-03 01:04:01	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	No	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0x25f1d8…
11-03 01:01:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?	No	SELL	5	81¢	$4	0xa47dc3…
11-03 00:57:43	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	No	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xe380ee…
11-03 00:56:27	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?	No	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x4f8dab…
11-03 00:54:07	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	SELL	5	32¢	$2	0x6f2166…
11-02 21:24:58	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x9553bd…
11-02 07:25:51	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xf025a8…
11-01 11:47:30	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x52a9e3…
11-01 06:18:21	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x8cd4f9…
11-01 06:16:46	Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	65¢	$65	0xb0eb06…
11-01 06:14:06	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	66¢	$66	0x8e6f66…
10-29 08:12:17	Will Reservists and New Economic Party win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	80	97¢	$78	0xfbe83d…
10-29 08:12:04	Will Reservists and New Economic Party win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x34423c…
10-29 08:11:47	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	92	99¢	$91	0x107a3c…
10-29 08:11:13	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x89818c…
10-29 01:05:17	Will UTJ win fewer than 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	58	6¢	$4	0xb723d2…
10-28 17:59:05	Will Reservists and New Economic Party win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x4432be…
10-28 07:08:38	Will UTJ win 9-10 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	20	93¢	$19	0x09ce27…
10-28 03:52:53	Will UTJ win fewer than 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0xb2f676…
10-28 00:22:14	Will RZP-Zehut win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	18	71¢	$13	0xffc48c…
10-28 00:00:50	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x117608…
10-27 23:58:08	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xf8133e…
10-27 21:54:29	Will Otzma win 10 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x6a1ace…
10-27 20:25:41	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0xa3361f…
10-27 20:01:14	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	50	57¢	$28	0xf3dbca…
10-27 20:00:47	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	81	62¢	$50	0xcb7abb…
10-27 19:59:53	Will Reservists and New Economic Party win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	38	78¢	$30	0x86ecc3…
10-27 19:57:54	Will UTJ win fewer than 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	2	15¢	$0	0x493a1c…
10-27 19:57:51	Will Reservists and New Economic Party win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	8	80¢	$6	0xc9c918…
10-27 19:57:14	Will Reservists and New Economic Party win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0xa5e1ed…
10-27 19:57:05	Will Reservists and New Economic Party win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x721158…
10-27 19:56:54	Will Reservists and New Economic Party win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	12	78¢	$9	0xc1275d…
10-27 19:38:42	Will UTJ win 7-8 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	50	31¢	$16	0xff35ad…
10-27 19:22:57	Will UTJ win 7-8 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	10	35¢	$4	0xbb33f3…
10-27 19:02:05	Will UTJ win 7-8 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	30	33¢	$10	0x337ced…
10-27 18:01:36	Will UTJ win 7-8 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	50	42¢	$21	0x4c35bd…
10-27 16:18:50	Will UTJ win 7-8 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xc5f76a…
10-27 12:46:30	Will UTJ win 7-8 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	32	68¢	$22	0xa01d05…
10-27 10:50:39	Will Amcha Yisrael win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x06cdb9…
10-26 22:33:56	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x0f9cba…
10-26 21:48:06	Will UTJ win 7-8 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0xe74193…
10-26 21:41:33	Will UTJ win 7-8 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	13	66¢	$9	0x960580…
10-26 20:30:38	Will UTJ win 7-8 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	50	64¢	$32	0x4989b9…
10-25 22:55:02	Will Amcha Yisrael win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	13	57¢	$7	0xc36220…
10-25 07:42:36	Will UTJ win 7-8 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0xf8c1c3…
10-25 07:12:11	Will UTJ win 7-8 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0x13bbf3…
10-24 17:15:06	Will Amcha Yisrael win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	2	67¢	$2	0x05ae68…
10-24 09:27:35	Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xd56cf3…
10-24 09:25:00	Will Amcha Yisrael win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x9da561…
10-24 08:04:59	Will UTJ win 7-8 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0xb98c32…
10-24 08:03:59	Will Blue & White win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xbdeed3…
10-23 18:35:30	Will UTJ win 7-8 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	30	73¢	$22	0xfa93c6…