Fake-Replication — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

75.0%

Resolved

Trades

205

lifetime

Volume

$225

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-07

last 07-18 07:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

54% 100% +$0

Politics

22% 0% $-1

Crypto

16% — —

Sports

5% 100% +$0

Tech

2% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No		-1	$-1	98¢	$-1	$-0	07-12 22:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
btc updown 5m 1782803400	1	$5	12	0	+12	open	—	06-30 07:14
btc updown 5m 1782715500	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	06-29 06:46
btc updown 5m 1782715200	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	06-29 06:42
btc updown 5m 1782716100	1	$5	38	0	+38	open	—	06-29 06:57
will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	3	$3	4	0	+4	open	—	03-12 20:14
btc updown 5m 1773000000	2	$2	222	0	+222	open	—	03-08 20:05
will peoples party pple win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	1	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	02-06 20:35
Will Seoul have less than 40mm of precipitation in April?	1	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	04-15 00:48
Will London have less than 20mm of precipitation in April?	1	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	04-15 00:49
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	2	$2	6	0	+6	open	—	04-15 00:52
Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in April?	1	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	04-15 00:47
will bhumjaithai party bjt win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	1	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	02-06 20:36
will global temperature increase by between 1pt05c and 1pt09c in january 2026	2	$2	6	0	+6	open	—	01-28 16:16
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	04-15 00:51
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	2	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	03-12 20:04
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	04-21 12:23
Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?	2	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	03-22 18:31
will l minh hng be the next prime minister of vietnam	2	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	03-29 09:49
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	2	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	02-06 20:37
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	1	$1	0	1	-1	open	—	07-12 22:20
Sam Altman in jail by June 30?	1	$1	300	0	+300	open	—	06-29 06:25
will timothe chalamet win best actor at the 98th academy awards	1	$1	2	0	+2	open	—	03-12 20:15
btc updown 5m 1774204500	1	$1	100	0	+100	open	—	03-22 18:40
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	1	$1	10	0	+10	open	—	01-07 13:59
nhl col wsh 2026 03 22	1	$1	1	0	+1	open	—	03-22 18:38
sol updown 15m 1767794400	1	$1	1	0	+1	open	—	01-07 14:13
btc updown 5m 1773347100	1	$1	12	0	+12	open	—	03-12 20:29
will one battle after another win best film editing at the 98th academy awards	1	$1	1	0	+1	open	—	03-12 20:18
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	1	$1	2	0	+2	open	—	03-29 09:42
will frankenstein win exactly 3 awards at the oscars	1	$1	1	0	+1	open	—	03-12 20:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-18 07:44:15	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	France	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x2053e2…
07-12 22:20:50	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x947c48…
07-09 13:06:56	wta muchova gauff 2026 07 09	Karolina Muchova	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x5e334a…
07-07 21:23:43	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xe4ab74…
07-07 21:22:55	Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xbdb259…
07-07 21:21:52	will marine le pen advance to the second round of the next french presidential election	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x629fb0…
06-30 07:59:05	will banksy create a new mural or street artwork by december 31	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xff9d8e…
06-30 07:57:58	will nike say revenue 5 times during earnings call 20260624143210391	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xfd48dd…
06-30 07:57:05	will anyone say villa 20 times during love island e24 20260625173908430	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x1ceaaa…
06-30 07:56:37	will the announcers say enthusiasm during brazil vs japan 20260628222111472	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x4d9190…
06-30 07:55:25	will people be said 100 times during the first joe rogan experience of the week of june 29 20260625171503101	Yes	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xee16d7…
06-30 07:53:41	cs2 don for10 2026 06 30	Donstu Esports	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x559efc…
06-30 07:53:07	cs2 pdaf ge3 2026 06 30	Patins da Ferrari	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xc3f3fd…
06-30 07:42:55	hok kailun tcgrou 2026 06 30	Koala Game	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x756f9c…
06-30 07:25:47	lol kc tl2 2026 06 30	Karmine Corp	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x6d9d75…
06-30 07:14:32	btc updown 5m 1782803400	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x81625e…
06-30 07:13:13	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xde7a9b…
06-30 07:12:40	will donald trump publicly insult keir starmer by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x99079b…
06-29 07:14:47	cs2 paina bk 2026 06 29	paiN Academy	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x8c9bbf…
06-29 07:03:20	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 23 29	Yes	BUY	19	5¢	$1	0xcd5d5a…
06-29 07:02:26	cs2 jul ep 2026 06 29	eternal premium	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x84da3c…
06-29 07:01:19	hok kailun uug 2026 06 29	Koala Game	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xed2d4a…
06-29 07:00:43	dota2 hab sb5 2026 06 29	summer bear	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xcc39d7…
06-29 06:57:22	btc updown 5m 1782716100	Up	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0xd76bbb…
06-29 06:56:10	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x94fd29…
06-29 06:46:26	btc updown 5m 1782715500	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xf06c4f…
06-29 06:42:29	btc updown 5m 1782715200	Up	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x13c60c…
06-29 06:25:59	Sam Altman in jail by June 30?	Yes	BUY	300	0¢	$1	0x21636a…
06-29 06:21:56	lol dcg tl2 2026 06 29 game4	Team Liquid	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xc76b0c…
06-29 06:21:40	lol dcg tl2 2026 06 29	Team Liquid	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x241d27…
05-25 20:46:30	Will Bernie say "Billionaire" 7+ times during Fighting Oligarchy?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xc3b3ba…
05-25 20:46:16	Will Bernie say "Percent" or "Percenter" 11+ times during Fighting Oligarchy?	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xb3821a…
05-25 20:43:59	Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs RED Canids Academy (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Group A	RED Canids Academy	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x84eb47…
05-25 20:43:36	Valorant: QoR vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage	QoR	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x0b8d3a…
05-25 20:43:19	Connecticut Sun vs. Golden State Valkyries	Golden State Valkyries	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x5ae76c…
05-25 20:43:01	PortlandFire vs. New York Liberty	New York Liberty	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x965b60…
05-25 20:39:42	New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals	New York Yankees	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x654960…
05-25 20:32:37	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xcabe10…
04-21 12:36:02	Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xb51e76…
04-21 12:23:50	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xd79dc9…
04-21 12:23:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x93dd35…
04-21 12:22:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x6d2a53…
04-21 12:18:30	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xf2f3ed…
04-15 00:59:06	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x1fa98f…
04-15 00:58:10	Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50?	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x4acf92…
04-15 00:56:50	will donald trump publicly insult someone on april 16 2026	Yes	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x2b3bca…
04-15 00:55:54	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xff6d36…
04-15 00:53:18	elon musk of tweets april 13 april 15 40 64	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x606747…
04-15 00:52:52	Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x2e371b…
04-15 00:52:04	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd22d31…
04-15 00:51:04	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xbe7d9c…
04-15 00:50:28	will starmer say mr speaker 10 times during the next prime ministers questions event 172	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xa83320…
04-15 00:50:02	will trump say tax or tariff 5 times during fox interview on wednesday	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xd879bf…
04-15 00:49:08	Will London have less than 20mm of precipitation in April?	Yes	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x441630…
04-15 00:48:42	Will Seoul have less than 40mm of precipitation in April?	Yes	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0xbe4cc3…
04-15 00:47:56	Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in April?	Yes	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0x89f7fc…
04-15 00:40:54	will china gdp growth in q1 2026 be between 4pt5 and 5pt0	Yes	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xedddbe…
04-15 00:38:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x369662…
03-29 09:49:30	will l minh hng be the next prime minister of vietnam	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x480ddf…
03-29 09:49:14	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xa01045…
03-29 09:47:52	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xc3dda9…
03-29 09:47:38	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xf2fcee…
03-29 09:47:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x0a306b…
03-29 09:46:36	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x9a5923…
03-29 09:45:58	will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xccfb5f…
03-29 09:42:58	will vitality win blast open rotterdam 2026	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x7b64f0…
03-29 09:42:30	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x661388…
03-22 18:40:07	btc updown 5m 1774204500	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x498f77…
03-22 18:39:21	sea rom lec 2026 03 22 rom	Yes	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x8e7086…
03-22 18:38:57	cs2 sng2 msq 2026 03 22	Sangal	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x3ee457…
03-22 18:38:37	cs2 tl1 mglz 2026 03 22	TheMongolz	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x50e161…
03-22 18:38:19	nhl col wsh 2026 03 22	Avalanche	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xe7d920…
03-22 18:37:55	nhl wpg nyr 2026 03 22	Rangers	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x5fd785…
03-22 18:34:39	will charles hittler be the next mayor of arcis sur aube	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x5793ec…
03-22 18:33:51	will franois piquemal be the next mayor of toulouse following the 2026 toulouse municipal election	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x9240aa…
03-22 18:33:27	will edouard philippe be the next mayor of le havre	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc83633…
03-22 18:33:01	will catherine trautmann be the next mayor of strasbourg	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x74f1ef…
03-22 18:32:35	will jose massi be the next mayor of toulon	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x1659f1…
03-22 18:32:19	will emmanuel grgoire win the paris mayor election	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x27d752…
03-22 18:31:45	will benot payan win the marseille mayor election	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x9ecadf…
03-22 18:31:25	will grgory doucet win the 2026 lyon mayoral election	Yes	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xbd82b7…
03-22 18:31:05	Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xdc3d52…
03-22 18:29:25	khamenei of tweets march 24 march 31 2026 0 19	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xdf87d2…
03-12 20:31:57	Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xa3de3e…
03-12 20:31:15	will trump say child during womens history month event	Yes	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xd42124…
03-12 20:29:13	btc updown 5m 1773347100	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x1b1003…
03-12 20:28:29	will csar dockweiler win the 2026 la paz mayoral election	Yes	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x4ab302…
03-12 20:27:59	will manuel saavedra win the 2026 santa cruz de la sierra mayoral election	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x47af9c…
03-12 20:27:31	will the slovenian democratic party sds win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 344	Yes	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x17e2c8…
03-12 20:27:01	will partido popular pp win the 2026 castilla y len regional election 258	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xd93e78…
03-12 20:26:27	will balendra balen shah be the next prime minister of nepal	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x9ebc05…
03-12 20:24:41	highest temperature in lucknow on march 13 2026 36corbelow	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x2bcb0a…
03-12 20:24:13	highest temperature in sao paulo on march 13 2026 24corhigher	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xb9ab25…
03-12 20:23:33	highest temperature in wellington on march 13 2026 22corhigher	Yes	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xdceb6c…
03-12 20:22:35	highest temperature in shanghai on march 13 2026 13c	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x6f4740…
03-12 20:21:39	highest temperature in london on march 13 2026 12corhigher	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xfa67b1…
03-12 20:21:01	highest temperature in atlanta on march 13 2026 68 69f	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x16a4ba…
03-12 20:20:13	Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xd685dd…
03-12 20:19:11	Will Caesars Entertainment, Inc. be acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x190094…
03-12 20:18:29	will one battle after another win best cinematography at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xc3612a…