Discrete-Swanling — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$633

Unrealized P&L

-$7

Hit rate

70.6%

Resolved

1,198

Trades

3,988

lifetime

Volume

$97.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$24

Open exposure

$22

1 position

First seen

2026-04-04

last 09-08 22:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 44 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 47% -$448

Sports

1% 53% -$88

Other

0% 12% -$147

Politics

0% 33% +$49

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 40 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
5kt meteor strike in 2026?	No		-24	-$15	90¢	$-22	-$7	04-30 17:07

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-28 18:00 UTC	4	$2.0K	1,122	1,122	+0	Up	-$79	07-28 18:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 01:05 UTC	3	$1.5K	1,169	664	+505	Down	+$52	07-30 01:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 15:55 UTC	3	$1.4K	1,531	1,531	+0	Up	+$175	07-30 15:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 19:35 UTC	2	$1.4K	1,197	898	+299	Down	+$675	07-29 19:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-28 15:30 UTC	3	$1.2K	1,254	704	+549	Up	-$239	07-28 15:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 15:45 UTC	2	$1.2K	690	690	+0	Up	-$5	07-30 15:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 17:00 UTC	4	$1.1K	712	712	+0	Down	-$55	07-29 17:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	2	$1.1K	646	646	+0	Down	+$139	07-29 01:43
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-31 00:00 UTC	5	$1.1K	1,308	857	+451	Up	-$174	07-31 00:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 00:15 UTC	1	$1.0K	1,060	0	+1,060	Up	+$60	07-30 00:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 00:25 UTC	1	$1000	1,124	0	+1,124	Up	+$124	07-30 00:29
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-28 14:00 UTC	2	$1000	1,092	0	+1,092	Up	+$92	07-28 14:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 23:00 UTC	1	$1000	1,086	0	+1,086	Down	+$86	07-29 23:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 14:50 UTC	4	$974	691	691	+0	Down	+$383	07-30 14:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-28 06:40 UTC	3	$954	623	467	+156	Up	+$109	07-28 06:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 15:05 UTC	2	$949	674	674	+0	Up	+$359	07-30 15:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-28 14:05 UTC	3	$942	609	553	+56	Up	-$78	07-28 14:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-28 06:45 UTC	2	$912	575	431	+144	Down	+$56	07-28 06:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-28 04:05 UTC	4	$822	685	353	+332	Up	+$104	07-28 04:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 00:15 UTC	2	$802	486	486	+0	Down	+$123	07-31 00:18
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-28 16:15 UTC	4	$800	1,121	0	+1,121	Up	+$321	07-28 16:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 19:20 UTC	5	$761	472	472	+0	Up	+$81	08-11 19:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 16:45 UTC	2	$758	595	595	+0	Down	-$242	07-29 16:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 22:50 UTC	4	$749	505	442	+63	Down	+$112	07-30 22:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 02:10 UTC	3	$692	396	396	+0	Down	+$92	07-31 02:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 14:35 UTC	4	$677	896	207	+689	Up	-$533	07-30 14:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-28 22:55 UTC	3	$670	857	195	+661	Down	+$131	07-28 22:59
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 17:15 UTC	5	$665	374	374	+0	Up	+$65	08-14 17:19
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 17:20 UTC	3	$648	352	352	+0	Up	+$48	08-14 17:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 18:05 UTC	3	$605	688	0	+688	Up	+$83	07-29 18:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-08 22:18:46	Ethereum Up or Down - September 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0x438faa…
09-08 22:17:54	Ethereum Up or Down - September 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	113	22¢	$25	0xf03752…
09-08 22:16:43	Ethereum Up or Down - September 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	80	31¢	$25	0xf5d419…
09-08 22:16:24	Ethereum Up or Down - September 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	69	36¢	$25	0xe3dd54…
09-08 22:03:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0xfe9da8…
09-08 22:02:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	SELL	43	96¢	$41	0x12e5e2…
09-08 22:00:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	BUY	43	58¢	$25	0x5ef3c9…
09-08 21:57:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	182	14¢	$25	0x8c7801…
09-08 21:02:34	Ethereum Up or Down - September 8, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x6134a4…
09-08 01:54:16	Solana Up or Down - September 7, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	118	63¢	$75	0x6cfacf…
09-08 01:53:51	Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Down	SELL	121	19¢	$23	0x1e58a6…
09-08 01:53:37	Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Down	BUY	121	41¢	$50	0x860118…
09-08 01:52:55	Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	SELL	110	63¢	$70	0xfff48d…
09-08 01:52:49	Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	SELL	110	63¢	$69	0x28c0cc…
09-08 01:52:12	Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	219	33¢	$72	0x9be45e…
09-08 01:49:19	Dogecoin Up or Down - September 7, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	67	74¢	$50	0xc15bda…
09-02 18:34:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	SELL	34	99¢	$33	0xe81ff5…
09-02 18:33:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	SELL	34	93¢	$31	0xaf8e41…
09-02 18:32:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	68	37¢	$25	0xe31539…
09-02 18:28:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	357	70¢	$250	0xfa704a…
09-02 18:28:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	41	61¢	$25	0x50acac…
09-02 18:23:42	Solana Up or Down - September 2, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	105	24¢	$25	0x66df6b…
09-02 16:37:18	Solana Up or Down - September 2, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	77	7¢	$5	0x83db85…
09-02 16:34:43	XRP Up or Down - September 2, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	SELL	174	99¢	$172	0xb6df13…
09-02 16:34:28	XRP Up or Down - September 2, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	SELL	174	89¢	$156	0xf323d1…
09-02 16:33:55	XRP Up or Down - September 2, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	98	26¢	$25	0xdc189c…
09-02 16:32:00	XRP Up or Down - September 2, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	251	40¢	$100	0x37d926…
09-02 16:29:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x1de3b9…
09-02 16:26:45	Solana Up or Down - September 2, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	216	46¢	$100	0xb6a746…
09-02 16:24:31	Solana Up or Down - September 2, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	SELL	102	97¢	$98	0x18cfc1…
09-02 16:24:10	Solana Up or Down - September 2, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	SELL	102	93¢	$95	0xae1c3d…
09-02 16:23:01	Solana Up or Down - September 2, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	SELL	68	78¢	$53	0x62d842…
09-02 16:21:33	Solana Up or Down - September 2, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	BUY	272	37¢	$99	0x46cacc…
09-02 16:19:06	Solana Up or Down - September 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	148	3¢	$5	0x205529…
09-02 16:18:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	SELL	243	15¢	$36	0x7bd494…
09-02 16:17:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	243	41¢	$100	0x523aaa…
09-02 01:29:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Down	BUY	179	51¢	$90	0x4bbe7b…
09-02 01:27:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	SELL	46	98¢	$45	0xde2669…
09-02 01:25:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	46	54¢	$25	0xc42781…
09-02 01:23:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	SELL	456	16¢	$71	0x23c97a…
09-02 01:22:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	456	44¢	$200	0x1d49c4…
09-02 00:47:39	Ethereum Up or Down - September 1, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	SELL	322	19¢	$63	0xba48e5…
09-02 00:46:52	Ethereum Up or Down - September 1, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	BUY	322	59¢	$190	0x33bd55…
09-02 00:43:57	Ethereum Up or Down - September 1, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	SELL	139	97¢	$135	0x810153…
09-02 00:43:49	Ethereum Up or Down - September 1, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	SELL	139	97¢	$134	0x9ef709…
09-02 00:43:39	Ethereum Up or Down - September 1, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	SELL	92	91¢	$84	0xe913f7…
09-02 00:42:58	Ethereum Up or Down - September 1, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	370	50¢	$184	0xfd48ae…
09-02 00:42:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	SELL	406	33¢	$134	0xedec75…
09-02 00:41:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	406	49¢	$200	0x430797…
09-02 00:37:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	192	5¢	$10	0xb51a47…
09-02 00:34:36	Ethereum Up or Down - September 1, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	SELL	70	76¢	$53	0x12eabb…
09-02 00:33:51	Ethereum Up or Down - September 1, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0x21b41e…
09-02 00:32:07	Ethereum Up or Down - September 1, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	BUY	76	66¢	$50	0xbb9876…
09-02 00:24:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	BUY	193	67¢	$130	0xd37738…
08-14 17:33:24	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 17:30 UTC	Down	BUY	423	29¢	$124	0x3a3dfe…
08-14 17:29:52	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 17:25 UTC	Down	SELL	99	3¢	$3	0x015754…
08-14 17:28:40	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 17:25 UTC	Down	BUY	391	77¢	$300	0x21f6e7…
08-14 17:26:31	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 17:25 UTC	Down	BUY	84	59¢	$50	0x699491…
08-14 17:26:09	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 17:25 UTC	Up	SELL	20	65¢	$13	0x084603…
08-14 17:25:01	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 17:25 UTC	Up	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x9600da…
08-14 17:24:16	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 17:20 UTC	Up	SELL	176	99¢	$174	0xa7b22a…
08-14 17:24:10	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 17:20 UTC	Up	SELL	176	99¢	$174	0x7e2eed…
08-14 17:23:39	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 17:20 UTC	Up	BUY	352	85¢	$300	0x136c29…
08-14 17:22:31	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 17:20 UTC	Up	BUY	86	58¢	$50	0xa0bf41…
08-14 17:22:13	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 17:20 UTC	Up	SELL	79	58¢	$46	0xb21fd3…
08-14 17:21:00	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 17:20 UTC	Up	BUY	79	63¢	$50	0xbdea5c…
08-14 17:19:28	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 17:15 UTC	Up	SELL	70	99¢	$69	0x2711eb…
08-14 17:19:21	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 17:15 UTC	Up	SELL	70	99¢	$69	0x9fbc22…
08-14 17:19:09	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 17:15 UTC	Up	SELL	47	97¢	$45	0x3d0b1b…
08-14 17:19:03	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 17:15 UTC	Up	SELL	187	96¢	$180	0xb1e1bc…
08-14 17:18:10	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 17:15 UTC	Up	BUY	374	80¢	$300	0xe3d4d8…
08-14 17:17:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 17:15 UTC	Up	SELL	29	91¢	$26	0x185c99…
08-14 17:17:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 17:15 UTC	Up	SELL	29	87¢	$25	0xe826d8…
08-14 17:16:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 17:15 UTC	Up	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x9c1bb9…
08-14 17:13:58	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 17:10 UTC	Down	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0x5550e6…
08-14 17:13:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 17:10 UTC	Down	SELL	139	12¢	$17	0x47f1d6…
08-14 17:13:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 17:10 UTC	Down	BUY	40	20¢	$8	0x06d88b…
08-14 17:12:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 17:10 UTC	Down	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0x1716c3…
08-14 17:11:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 17:10 UTC	Down	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0x909583…
08-14 17:11:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 17:10 UTC	Down	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0xd3412b…
08-14 17:09:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 17:10 UTC	Down	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xf45739…
08-14 17:08:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 17:15 UTC	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xb58461…
08-14 17:08:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 17:15 UTC	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xa37e03…
08-14 17:06:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 17:05 UTC	Up	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0xa1d83e…
08-14 17:04:30	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 17:00 UTC	Up	BUY	98	51¢	$50	0x84e87d…
08-14 17:04:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 17:00 UTC	Down	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0xf8a7ad…
08-14 17:03:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 17:00 UTC	Down	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0x067fc7…
08-11 21:58:52	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 21:55 UTC	Up	BUY	313	96¢	$300	0xa07c4e…
08-11 21:57:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 21:55 UTC	Up	BUY	68	73¢	$50	0x7ef8b1…
08-11 19:33:43	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 19:30 UTC	Up	SELL	93	31¢	$29	0x210532…
08-11 19:32:25	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 19:30 UTC	Up	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x263f9c…
08-11 19:31:48	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 19:30 UTC	Up	BUY	77	65¢	$50	0xe3c6d4…
08-11 19:30:00	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 19:25 UTC	Up	BUY	29	7¢	$2	0x843d7a…
08-11 19:29:22	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 19:25 UTC	Up	SELL	6	36¢	$2	0x822a61…
08-11 19:28:39	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 19:25 UTC	Up	BUY	49	41¢	$20	0x3578b9…
08-11 19:24:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 19:20 UTC	Up	SELL	394	99¢	$390	0xcb22bc…
08-11 19:23:15	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 19:20 UTC	Down	BUY	346	6¢	$20	0x7fa315…
08-11 19:22:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 19:20 UTC	Up	BUY	394	76¢	$300	0xcaeccf…
08-11 19:21:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 19:20 UTC	Down	SELL	78	40¢	$31	0x72fa15…
08-11 19:20:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 19:20 UTC	Down	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0x1793a6…