Instructive-Larch — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$223

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

59.0%

Resolved

1,948

Trades

3,357

lifetime

Volume

$6.28K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-04 08:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 271 days

Categories

Other

79% 57% -$170

Sports

11% 51% -$22

Crypto

10% 57% -$31

Politics

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

72 active days in 12wk • peak 211 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on June 8?	14	$52	46	46	+0	Yes	+$2	06-08 08:44
mlb bal nyy 2026 09 27 spread home 2pt5	2	$26	50	0	+50	cancelled	$0	09-28 14:42
mlb bal nyy 2026 09 27 spread away 2pt5	2	$26	50	0	+50	cancelled	$0	09-28 14:42
dota2 heroic rnx 2026 02 06 game1	1	$22	46	0	+46	Heroic	-$22	02-06 14:44
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 7?	3	$21	17	17	+0	Yes	+$13	06-07 09:04
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on August 29?	6	$20	16	11	+5	No	-$2	08-29 06:36
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 11?	8	$19	33	33	+0	No	-$3	06-11 05:58
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 9?	7	$19	18	18	+0	No	-$3	06-09 06:50
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 1?	7	$17	20	12	+8	Yes	-$1	06-01 07:57
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 1?	9	$16	14	13	+1	Yes	-$1	06-01 09:17
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 11?	5	$16	13	10	+3	Yes	+$2	06-11 06:38
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11?	5	$16	17	8	+9	No	+$3	06-11 06:59
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on August 29?	3	$16	10	10	+0	No	-$1	08-29 02:15
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 12?	7	$16	10	10	+0	Yes	+$1	05-12 14:43
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on August 27?	7	$16	13	9	+4	Yes	+$0	08-27 06:22
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 9?	5	$15	22	22	+0	No	+$1	06-09 07:59
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on September 20?	5	$15	9	9	+0	Yes	+$1	09-20 07:32
mlb bal nyy 2026 09 27 total 9pt5	1	$15	30	0	+30	cancelled	$0	09-28 14:38
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 1?	2	$15	44	44	+0	No	-$11	06-01 08:56
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 5?	4	$15	14	14	+0	Yes	+$1	06-05 07:12
mlb bal nyy 2026 09 27 total 7pt5	1	$15	30	0	+30	cancelled	+$0	09-28 14:38
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 6?	8	$15	24	24	+0	No	+$3	06-06 08:11
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on October 20?	3	$14	9	9	+0	Yes	+$3	10-20 14:19
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on September 2?	7	$14	25	20	+5	No	+$1	09-02 08:23
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 9?	7	$14	24	20	+5	No	-$5	06-09 04:55
Ethereum Up or Down - September 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	10	$14	14	9	+5	Down	-$3	09-12 00:29
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on September 20?	4	$14	9	9	+0	No	+$2	09-20 07:37
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on May 30?	4	$13	17	7	+10	No	-$4	05-30 11:14
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on September 2?	3	$13	10	5	+5	No	+$0	09-02 00:54
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on August 31?	3	$13	10	8	+2	Yes	-$5	08-31 03:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 08:55:31	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on November 4?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x5bd24f…
11-03 07:00:15	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C on November 3?	Yes	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xcf65ac…
11-03 06:34:34	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on November 3?	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xf96c9d…
11-03 06:32:21	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on November 3?	Yes	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x5a1a48…
11-03 06:05:51	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on November 3?	Yes	BUY	4	90¢	$4	0xb29ed4…
10-30 06:30:21	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x9a25bf…
10-30 06:29:58	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x760627…
10-29 06:19:59	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 18°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	4	92¢	$4	0x0de9c2…
10-29 06:13:44	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on October 29?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0xe01785…
10-29 05:35:56	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x3f15f2…
10-29 05:07:20	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	4	82¢	$3	0xe29abd…
10-28 13:54:20	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0xcd1c47…
10-28 13:15:37	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	4	78¢	$3	0xbc16e6…
10-28 05:54:01	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0xbe79bb…
10-28 05:01:44	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	4	91¢	$4	0x6f1939…
10-27 09:10:06	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	6	71¢	$4	0xdd41b0…
10-27 05:34:47	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xdca4e2…
10-25 09:09:42	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x5b84cb…
10-25 03:07:35	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0xcc531d…
10-23 22:41:36	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on October 24?	Yes	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xb175fe…
10-23 15:34:08	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0xccb06f…
10-23 08:59:47	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on October 23?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x42a1be…
10-23 06:00:26	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x8f4a8a…
10-22 04:08:20	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xc3edb9…
10-21 07:02:38	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on October 21?	Yes	SELL	7	0¢	$0	0x305f45…
10-21 07:02:00	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on October 21?	No	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0x294f68…
10-21 06:34:03	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on October 21?	No	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0xccd13f…
10-21 06:20:57	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0xf59a87…
10-21 05:40:02	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x5eb4e4…
10-21 05:39:48	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on October 21?	Yes	SELL	4	73¢	$3	0x315fce…
10-21 05:09:17	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x85557c…
10-21 05:07:39	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0xfa279e…
10-21 03:20:56	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	7	73¢	$5	0x730a05…
10-21 03:16:41	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on October 20?	Yes	SELL	7	91¢	$7	0xd3bb3f…
10-21 03:15:21	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C on October 20?	Yes	SELL	5	96¢	$4	0x27efb6…
10-21 03:07:20	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xb661c0…
10-20 14:19:38	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on October 20?	Yes	SELL	9	98¢	$9	0x9577e6…
10-20 14:19:27	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on October 20?	Yes	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0xa3ec6b…
10-20 12:35:15	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on October 20?	Yes	BUY	7	56¢	$4	0xbb028f…
10-20 10:58:39	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on October 20?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0xdd0eed…
10-20 10:57:54	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on October 20?	Yes	SELL	7	0¢	$0	0x6573c9…
10-20 10:44:33	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on October 20?	Yes	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0xc0432b…
10-20 10:38:09	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0xaef921…
10-20 10:01:44	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on October 20?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x44c02d…
10-20 09:56:00	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on October 20?	Yes	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0xd79791…
10-20 07:05:49	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on October 20?	Yes	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xf7d722…
10-20 07:00:56	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on October 20?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x7dde45…
10-20 06:08:34	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on October 20?	Yes	BUY	6	60¢	$4	0x43f05c…
10-20 06:08:25	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on October 20?	Yes	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x0fe964…
10-20 05:56:05	Jilin Northeast Tigers vs. Sichuan Blue Whales	Jilin Northeast Tigers	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xe38134…
10-20 05:05:44	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on October 20?	Yes	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x2c81d4…
10-20 04:38:21	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on October 20?	Yes	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x7554ec…
10-20 04:07:05	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C on October 20?	Yes	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x57c81a…
10-19 08:33:48	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on October 19?	Yes	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x6a073c…
10-19 05:07:29	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on October 19?	Yes	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0xb1ae4a…
10-19 04:07:59	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on October 19?	Yes	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x5e882a…
10-18 10:28:41	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on October 18?	Yes	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xc5131d…
10-18 05:19:18	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on October 18?	Yes	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0xf0afed…
10-18 05:12:47	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on October 18?	Yes	BUY	2	71¢	$1	0xc4f80d…
10-18 05:09:12	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on October 18?	Yes	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x0e6946…
10-17 07:51:02	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on October 17?	Yes	BUY	4	82¢	$3	0xc56fe0…
10-17 04:51:46	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on October 17?	Yes	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0xf0ba0c…
10-17 04:08:09	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on October 17?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xe7aafc…
10-17 04:07:56	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on October 17?	Yes	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x7725b5…
10-16 06:08:21	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on October 16?	Yes	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x9de024…
10-16 03:37:57	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on October 16?	Yes	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x46e46b…
10-15 15:34:41	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x66cbc5…
10-15 08:32:40	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0xd3192f…
10-15 08:32:35	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x81c923…
10-15 06:04:01	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	3	93¢	$3	0x33d050…
10-15 05:03:59	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x86c0c1…
10-15 05:03:35	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xdeb676…
10-15 05:01:13	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	4	70¢	$3	0x475bd6…
10-14 14:49:01	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xb8575d…
10-14 14:13:50	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xe5e3c9…
10-14 10:01:38	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	7	41¢	$3	0x5640e2…
10-14 08:02:31	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x30f4a9…
10-14 06:45:52	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x80ec26…
10-14 06:45:29	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on October 14?	Yes	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0xda8e95…
10-14 05:15:49	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xd6a34e…
10-14 05:11:47	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0xe549d6…
10-14 04:18:47	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x353a60…
10-13 04:50:32	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on October 13?	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xea257f…
10-13 03:45:17	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 13?	No	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0xfcd0b4…
10-12 08:01:52	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on October 12?	Yes	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x4685f9…
10-12 07:08:07	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on October 12?	Yes	SELL	6	0¢	$0	0x6bbade…
10-12 05:59:20	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on October 12?	Yes	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x32276b…
10-12 03:36:24	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on October 12?	Yes	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0xb898a9…
10-11 10:57:09	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on October 11?	Yes	BUY	4	91¢	$4	0x9d3825…
10-11 05:05:57	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on October 11?	Yes	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x752703…
10-11 05:04:21	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on October 11?	Yes	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x95a36b…
10-11 05:04:09	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on October 11?	Yes	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xf60639…
10-10 06:47:40	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on October 10?	Yes	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xa7385c…
10-10 05:05:52	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x532b4d…
10-10 05:05:21	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x839795…
10-10 05:05:13	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x7ef50a…
10-09 09:09:57	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x4cc104…
10-09 09:09:36	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xc4f4d1…
10-09 09:09:24	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x5e0e7a…
10-09 07:02:13	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xd99203…