Shameful-Kilometer — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$142

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

33.6%

Resolved

Trades

493

lifetime

Volume

$5.80K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

$80

3 positions

First seen

2026-05-23

last 11-10 23:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 31 days

Categories

Other

73% 27% -$106

Tech

11% 14% -$6

Politics

8% 38% -$51

Crypto

7% 60% +$21

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

36 active days in 12wk • peak 44 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Claude Fable 5.2 debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?	Yes	+60	$53	89¢	$53	+$0	11-10 23:18
Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of January 2027?	No	+40	$29	67¢	$27	-$2	11-08 11:04
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026?	Yes	+0	$0	12¢	$0	$0	11-03 17:48

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	10	$260	210	210	+0	No	-$2	10-11 12:16
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 8, 2026?	6	$217	121	121	+0	No	+$1	10-07 14:24
Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	6	$216	204	204	+0	Yes	-$12	10-08 06:20
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026?	21	$200	116	116	+0	No	$0	10-10 03:13
Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	5	$167	174	174	+0	Yes	+$4	10-05 16:59
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 17.5 and 20 million views on day 1?	14	$164	139	139	+0	Yes	-$11	10-11 08:54
Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on November 2, 2026?	11	$144	103	103	+0	No	$0	10-24 07:25
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	7	$127	200	200	+0	open	—	09-13 11:46
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?	2	$121	100	100	+0	Yes	+$1	11-06 11:36
which cities face tornado risk on september 15 2026 kansas city mo	6	$117	60	60	+0	No	$0	09-15 14:02
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	4	$110	400	400	+0	Yes	+$2	09-13 13:27
paxton flips talarico for texas senate by november 2	16	$98	240	240	+0	No	-$8	10-24 12:06
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in September?	8	$90	70	70	+0	Yes	-$2	09-14 14:37
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	3	$87	50	50	+0	open	—	10-07 09:43
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 26, 2026?	2	$85	50	50	+0	Yes	-$1	10-23 18:25
Netflix (NFLX) Q3 operating margin 32% to 34%?	4	$84	80	80	+0	No	-$2	10-10 09:55
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	7	$82	86	86	+0	No	$0	10-24 09:48
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026?	6	$81	60	60	+0	No	-$2	10-21 10:12
Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 7?	5	$80	42	42	+0	Yes	+$0	09-13 09:23
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?	4	$79	50	50	+0	open	—	11-08 15:24
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026?	20	$79	61	61	+0	No	-$2	10-07 15:51
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	10	$75	58	58	+0	Yes	+$1	09-14 13:34
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	4	$75	53	53	+0	No	+$0	10-20 15:11
Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	2	$69	40	40	+0	No	+$0	10-08 17:34
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 36.5 and 37.0 million views on day 4?	6	$69	40	40	+0	Yes	+$1	09-16 08:43
Will the next Qwen Max model (3.9+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	4	$69	40	40	+0	open	—	11-08 11:00
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8?	2	$67	40	40	+0	open	—	11-08 17:13
Will Hy4 debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	5	$66	40	40	+0	open	—	11-08 08:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	10	$65	40	40	+0	Up	+$5	06-02 08:35
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	2	$64	200	200	+0	No	+$0	09-13 23:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-10 23:18:21	Will Claude Fable 5.2 debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?	Yes	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x9d1a0d…
11-10 21:53:37	Will Claude Fable 5.2 debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?	Yes	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0xcd1c77…
11-10 21:53:37	Will Claude Fable 5.2 debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?	Yes	BUY	14	85¢	$12	0x408688…
11-10 21:23:16	Will Claude Fable 5.2 debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?	Yes	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x8dd4a5…
11-09 21:54:36	Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) released by November 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	36¢	$7	0xda819e…
11-09 21:42:10	Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) released by November 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0xf52c8a…
11-09 21:04:52	Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) released by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	48¢	$0	0x678b0a…
11-09 21:03:10	Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) released by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	19	50¢	$10	0xcb1568…
11-09 18:57:12	Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) released by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	50¢	$0	0xea81c4…
11-09 18:57:10	Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) released by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	19	50¢	$10	0x68a245…
11-08 17:13:49	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8?	No	SELL	40	84¢	$34	0xdc2b79…
11-08 15:24:06	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	2	80¢	$1	0x9a7023…
11-08 15:14:04	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	23	80¢	$19	0xeca005…
11-08 15:14:04	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	25	80¢	$20	0xc531c7…
11-08 11:04:54	Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of January 2027?	No	BUY	40	72¢	$29	0x69dd61…
11-08 11:00:03	Will the next Qwen Max model (3.9+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	40	86¢	$34	0x5f8817…
11-08 08:00:24	Will Hy4 debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	39	83¢	$33	0xbfa025…
11-08 07:51:33	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8?	No	BUY	40	84¢	$34	0xe1f550…
11-07 19:15:07	Will the next Qwen Max model (3.9+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	20	89¢	$18	0x04e514…
11-07 09:46:37	Will the next Qwen Max model (3.9+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x2839b3…
11-07 08:24:30	Will the next Qwen Max model (3.9+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	2	56¢	$1	0x6cac89…
11-07 08:00:06	Will the next Qwen Max model (3.9+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xc75592…
11-07 07:39:42	Will the next Qwen Max model (3.9+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	2	56¢	$1	0xb4c6c6…
11-07 07:39:36	Will the next Qwen Max model (3.9+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	18	56¢	$10	0x99053c…
11-07 07:30:16	Will the next Qwen Max model (3.9+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	22	52¢	$11	0x5226a7…
11-07 06:59:31	Will Hy4 debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	20	93¢	$19	0x764928…
11-07 06:18:45	Will the next Qwen Max model (3.9+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	17	86¢	$15	0x407e8b…
11-07 06:18:45	Will the next Qwen Max model (3.9+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	86¢	$2	0x2149e8…
11-07 02:58:07	Will Hy4 debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0xcdfee7…
11-07 00:02:16	Will Hy4 debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	1	82¢	$0	0xa70fd2…
11-06 18:54:04	Will Hy4 debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	18	82¢	$15	0xe46e00…
11-06 18:54:04	Will Hy4 debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	21	82¢	$17	0xbbed4d…
11-06 18:54:04	Will Hy4 debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x57eeb4…
11-06 17:55:09	Will Hy4 debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	40	5¢	$2	0x0185e7…
11-06 17:38:55	Will Hy4 debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x103ecb…
11-06 17:32:40	Will Hy4 debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x7ff5a8…
11-06 14:14:36	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0x425f07…
11-06 11:36:15	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?	No	SELL	100	61¢	$61	0x02fcd1…
11-06 10:09:01	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?	No	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0x584dfe…
11-05 22:35:15	Situational Awareness raises new capital by November 30?	No	SELL	20	78¢	$16	0x75c441…
11-05 21:37:54	Situational Awareness raises new capital by November 30?	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0xa2c1a5…
11-05 19:35:06	Will there be no GPT Astra 6.1+ release by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	298	7¢	$21	0xab1a68…
11-05 07:05:25	Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $60 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	103	10¢	$10	0xe78d56…
11-04 15:50:25	Will "Dune: Part Three" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 110m?	Yes	SELL	30	15¢	$4	0x9b602d…
11-04 15:20:54	Will there be no GPT Astra 6.1+ release by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	74	9¢	$7	0x94d112…
11-04 15:20:54	Will there be no GPT Astra 6.1+ release by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	9¢	$1	0x27a669…
11-04 13:47:39	Will "Dune: Part Three" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 110m?	Yes	BUY	19	17¢	$3	0x2ceb48…
11-04 09:46:39	Will there be no GPT Astra 6.1+ release by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	13¢	$2	0x98ff7c…
11-04 09:46:39	Will there be no GPT Astra 6.1+ release by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	119	13¢	$15	0x4c8a0b…
11-04 09:46:37	Will there be no GPT Astra 6.1+ release by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	13¢	$7	0xe16f98…
11-04 09:46:37	Will there be no GPT Astra 6.1+ release by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	13¢	$5	0xb2311f…
11-04 05:31:30	Will Team Spirit win 1win Essence III?	Yes	SELL	25	33¢	$8	0xe2b783…
11-04 03:26:16	Will "Dune: Part Three" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 110m?	Yes	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0x690cbc…
11-03 21:34:39	Will Team Spirit win 1win Essence III?	Yes	BUY	25	39¢	$10	0xc1d347…
11-03 20:27:49	Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $60 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	103	14¢	$14	0x987ee8…
11-03 17:48:33	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	15¢	$0	0x8ee2d4…
11-03 17:11:36	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	21¢	$0	0xc7c5a7…
11-03 17:09:48	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	Yes	SELL	115	21¢	$24	0x5e4f79…
11-03 16:19:19	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	Yes	BUY	116	24¢	$28	0x628a1f…
11-03 13:24:52	Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the June meeting?	Yes	SELL	76	31¢	$24	0xae8fac…
11-03 13:07:10	Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the June meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0xf06eec…
11-03 13:07:10	Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the June meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x7bfb5c…
11-03 13:07:10	Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the June meeting?	Yes	BUY	36	40¢	$15	0x514f6f…
11-03 04:16:15	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	79	31¢	$24	0x5e8f72…
11-03 00:13:42	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	79	35¢	$28	0xd81603…
11-01 07:15:12	Husted flips Brown for Ohio Senate by November 2?	Yes	SELL	120	0¢	$0	0xc0cfaa…
10-29 17:27:58	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 15, 2026?	No	SELL	70	15¢	$10	0x722c55…
10-29 16:31:19	Will The Democrats be in the next Israeli government?	Yes	SELL	50	16¢	$8	0x9b9f29…
10-29 15:53:29	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 15, 2026?	No	BUY	70	23¢	$16	0x8bcf44…
10-29 14:29:08	Will The Democrats be in the next Israeli government?	Yes	SELL	10	19¢	$2	0x180cca…
10-29 14:29:07	Will The Democrats be in the next Israeli government?	Yes	SELL	10	19¢	$2	0x7d1aa4…
10-29 14:29:07	Will The Democrats be in the next Israeli government?	Yes	SELL	10	19¢	$2	0x7cf4af…
10-29 13:07:32	Will The Democrats be in the next Israeli government?	Yes	BUY	80	20¢	$16	0x535e87…
10-29 05:46:28	Will the Republicans win Arizona in the 2028 Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	46	27¢	$12	0x78e915…
10-28 17:59:49	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	No	SELL	120	8¢	$10	0x72d68f…
10-28 17:37:29	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	No	BUY	40	8¢	$3	0xab2a30…
10-28 17:27:05	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	No	BUY	80	11¢	$9	0x0f2adc…
10-27 23:24:11	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	29¢	$14	0x0dd7e6…
10-27 19:14:20	will the republicans win arizona in the 2028 presidential election	Yes	BUY	46	53¢	$24	0xb2ed21…
10-27 19:11:33	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	30¢	$15	0xa5548d…
10-27 09:35:33	Will Anthropic IPO by November 18, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	26¢	$10	0xd48336…
10-27 09:34:00	Will Anthropic IPO by November 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	16¢	$1	0x92425c…
10-27 09:33:15	Will Anthropic IPO by November 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	17¢	$1	0x0c295d…
10-27 09:01:17	Gemini Carbon released by November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	40	42¢	$17	0xcabbf7…
10-27 07:23:32	Gemini Carbon released by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	40	45¢	$18	0x9d3f70…
10-27 06:56:30	Will Anthropic IPO by November 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	35¢	$14	0x8496b9…
10-26 15:31:00	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?	No	SELL	46	60¢	$28	0x9a7d41…
10-25 06:54:45	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?	No	BUY	46	60¢	$28	0x211c7e…
10-24 12:06:24	Osborn flips Ricketts for Nebraska Senate by November 2?	Yes	SELL	40	4¢	$2	0xf0ab3e…
10-24 12:06:14	Sullivan flips Peltola for Alaska Senate by November 2?	Yes	SELL	65	3¢	$2	0xfd9092…
10-24 12:06:09	Paxton flips Talarico for Texas Senate by November 2?	Yes	SELL	80	5¢	$4	0x47d3f2…
10-24 10:52:24	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	16	67¢	$10	0xa53330…
10-24 10:52:20	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	10	67¢	$7	0x673548…
10-24 10:52:18	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	4	67¢	$3	0x4af36a…
10-24 10:31:38	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 35% or higher?	No	SELL	25	82¢	$20	0x368643…
10-24 10:11:27	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	30	67¢	$20	0xfc2203…
10-24 09:54:14	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 35% or higher?	No	BUY	25	82¢	$20	0x3b020f…
10-24 09:48:27	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	46	37¢	$17	0x3859d5…
10-24 09:47:15	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	40	37¢	$15	0x412865…
10-24 09:47:15	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	6	37¢	$2	0x030cb0…