Hot-Year — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$116

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

43.5%

Resolved

206

Trades

271

lifetime

Volume

$586

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-02

last 10-13 08:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 59 days

Categories

Other

88% 14% -$80

Politics

7% 15% -$7

Crypto

5% 5% -$24

Sports

1% 0% -$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	5	$43	23	23	+0	No	+$1	05-01 04:07
efa wre cfc 2026 03 07 draw	2	$23	16	16	+0	Yes	+$9	03-07 20:01
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on August 20?	2	$21	17	17	+0	Yes	+$13	08-20 21:37
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?	2	$20	25	25	+0	Yes	$0	05-09 07:39
elon musk of tweets march 26 march 28 40 64	4	$19	45	45	+0	No	-$1	03-26 18:59
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on May 10?	2	$17	16	16	+0	Yes	+$15	05-10 12:25
epl eve mun 2026 02 23 mun	2	$16	11	11	+0	Yes	+$5	02-23 22:15
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on May 21?	2	$16	15	15	+0	Yes	+$14	05-21 08:15
elon musk of tweets march 26 march 28 0 39	4	$15	514	514	+0	No	-$8	03-26 18:59
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?	2	$15	22	22	+0	No	-$4	05-09 08:21
elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 260 279	2	$14	10	10	+0	Yes	+$4	03-27 14:32
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 22?	4	$14	16	16	+0	Yes	$0	05-22 14:32
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	2	$11	10	10	+0	Yes	+$1	04-30 18:52
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on May 21?	2	$10	9	9	+0	Yes	+$8	05-21 07:44
elon musk of tweets march 23 march 25 40 64	2	$10	7	7	+0	Yes	+$4	03-25 16:02
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9?	2	$9	8	8	+0	Yes	+$7	06-09 13:00
Trump out as President by April 30?	2	$9	299	299	+0	No	-$1	04-10 19:21
highest temperature in london on april 3 2026 16c	2	$8	4	4	+0	Yes	$0	04-03 15:47
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 29, 2026?	2	$8	10	10	+0	Yes	+$6	04-29 14:54
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on May 20?	2	$7	6	6	+0	Yes	+$5	05-20 08:34
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	2	$7	3,000	0	+3,000	Yes	-$7	02-03 16:04
Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?	2	$7	5	5	+0	Yes	+$3	07-11 23:06
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 7, 2026?	3	$6	140	98	+42	No	-$2	04-10 19:34
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 280 299	1	$6	572	0	+572	No	-$6	03-09 16:25
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 8?	2	$6	5	5	+0	Yes	+$4	06-08 12:41
elon musk of tweets march 26 march 28 90 114	1	$5	42	0	+42	No	-$5	03-28 11:43
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 22?	4	$5	23	23	+0	No	+$1	05-22 13:19
epl eve bur 2026 03 03 bur	1	$5	31	0	+31	No	-$5	03-03 19:15
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 1?	1	$5	10	0	+10	No	-$5	05-01 18:05
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 21?	2	$5	3	3	+0	Yes	+$2	05-21 19:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-13 08:14:05	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on October 14?	Yes	BUY	228	0¢	$1	0x03269b…
10-13 07:40:32	AI artwork hits $10M at major auction in 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xf04518…
10-13 07:29:17	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0x917d46…
10-13 07:28:49	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	32	6¢	$2	0x98323c…
10-13 07:28:20	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x7d58d6…
10-13 07:27:58	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	8	5¢	$0	0x8ae158…
09-28 06:44:08	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C or below on September 28?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x171f7e…
09-28 06:43:26	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on September 28?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x6f86ae…
09-28 06:35:47	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on September 28?	Yes	BUY	135	1¢	$1	0x0ce09a…
09-28 06:05:20	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 28?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xb091a2…
09-28 06:04:06	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 28?	No	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x223af3…
09-28 06:02:26	bitcoin above 80k on september 28 2026	No	BUY	68	1¢	$1	0x663278…
09-28 06:01:59	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 28?	Yes	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0x309846…
09-12 15:36:07	Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-09-12?	Yes	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x321af2…
09-12 15:31:43	Spread: Hull City AFC (-1.5)	Hull City AFC	BUY	91	1¢	$1	0x412f0b…
09-12 15:31:07	Spread: Hull City AFC (-2.5)	Hull City AFC	BUY	121	1¢	$1	0xca16e0…
09-10 23:23:06	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 11?	Yes	BUY	8	19¢	$2	0x272cd7…
09-10 23:20:34	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 11?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0x2f8459…
09-10 23:11:16	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 11?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x429d44…
09-01 20:37:48	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on September 2?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xb5b0f2…
09-01 03:20:00	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C or higher on September 1?	Yes	BUY	94	1¢	$1	0xffcee7…
09-01 03:19:22	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on September 1?	Yes	BUY	146	1¢	$1	0xf9ded9…
08-24 19:12:15	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on August 25?	Yes	BUY	37	5¢	$2	0xc73195…
08-24 19:11:15	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or higher on August 25?	Yes	BUY	369	0¢	$1	0xd2e563…
08-24 19:10:07	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 25?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x4f9b06…
08-24 19:09:39	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 25?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x0fb91e…
08-24 19:05:37	Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)	Chelsea FC	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xb50309…
08-24 19:04:58	Spread: Fulham FC (-1.5)	Fulham FC	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0x9104ca…
08-20 21:48:16	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on August 21?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xd0acd1…
08-20 21:47:37	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on August 21?	Yes	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0x3226ac…
08-20 21:45:03	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on August 21?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x8fbab7…
08-20 21:44:28	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C or higher on August 21?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xea394e…
08-20 21:40:30	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 21?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x2f5762…
08-20 21:40:00	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 21?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0x7a11df…
08-20 21:37:03	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on August 20?	Yes	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0xf84d12…
08-20 01:27:22	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on August 20?	Yes	BUY	17	21¢	$4	0xb686e9…
08-20 01:26:25	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on August 20?	Yes	BUY	47	6¢	$3	0x9aa2da…
08-17 18:22:39	Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 18?	Yes	BUY	67	4¢	$3	0x586295…
07-25 17:17:54	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0x90ebfb…
07-24 23:56:39	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on July 25?	Yes	BUY	557	0¢	$1	0x673244…
07-24 23:55:51	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 25?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0xc869a8…
07-22 11:41:42	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 23?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x37e507…
07-22 11:41:00	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 23?	Yes	BUY	77	1¢	$1	0xbcddd0…
07-22 11:40:25	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 23?	Yes	BUY	180	1¢	$1	0x3f91a1…
07-22 11:39:57	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 23?	Yes	BUY	234	0¢	$1	0x13e486…
07-22 11:39:30	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C or higher on July 23?	Yes	BUY	416	0¢	$1	0xe23443…
07-14 14:01:22	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	12	22¢	$3	0x2bd216…
07-14 13:59:55	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	11	17¢	$2	0x3dbcfb…
07-11 23:06:17	Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x67c163…
07-11 22:28:05	Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x4a5024…
07-11 22:26:56	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 spread away 2pt5	England	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x859c5f…
07-10 16:45:34	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on July 10?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xee28a4…
07-10 00:45:05	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on July 10?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xd05f4e…
07-10 00:44:55	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on July 10?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x173c2b…
07-10 00:43:31	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on July 10?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xfb6e0b…
07-10 00:41:02	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 10?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xba240c…
07-10 00:35:22	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 10?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0xa9968b…
07-10 00:34:05	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 10?	Yes	BUY	83	1¢	$1	0x6818cd…
07-10 00:30:02	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on July 10?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xcfd405…
07-10 00:28:40	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 10?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x30093f…
07-06 00:58:10	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 6?	Yes	BUY	9	15¢	$1	0x6df4b8…
07-06 00:56:11	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 6?	Yes	BUY	52	2¢	$1	0x77a97c…
07-06 00:52:01	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on July 6?	Yes	BUY	60	2¢	$1	0xe19f03…
06-10 13:46:57	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 10?	Yes	BUY	16	8¢	$1	0xb645c3…
06-10 13:45:07	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on June 10?	Yes	BUY	155	1¢	$1	0xa39aaa…
06-10 13:41:15	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 10?	Yes	BUY	197	1¢	$1	0x3bbdd2…
06-10 13:37:04	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on June 10?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xad1f44…
06-09 22:05:34	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xff40f5…
06-09 22:04:57	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xfad6b6…
06-09 22:03:43	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 10?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x722df8…
06-09 21:50:45	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on June 10?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xbf648c…
06-09 21:49:34	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 10?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0xa24201…
06-09 21:47:43	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 10?	Yes	BUY	41	2¢	$1	0xf92280…
06-09 21:45:28	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 10?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x05b96d…
06-09 13:00:51	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9?	Yes	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xbdecb2…
06-08 23:32:45	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 9?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x3ac59a…
06-08 23:28:18	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xbce885…
06-08 23:25:01	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 9?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x694a8c…
06-08 16:07:51	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on June 9?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0xfba3d6…
06-08 15:07:15	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on June 8?	Yes	BUY	102	1¢	$1	0x2af9fc…
06-08 12:59:07	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 8?	Yes	BUY	489	0¢	$1	0xb10f0d…
06-08 12:43:00	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8?	Yes	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x3f206d…
06-08 12:41:27	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 8?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xbe4fff…
06-08 06:49:57	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x84bff7…
06-08 06:49:16	iran closes its airspace by june 15	No	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xf820bc…
06-08 06:46:01	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xd6c074…
06-08 05:48:48	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 9?	Yes	BUY	9	2¢	$0	0x9a1b87…
06-08 05:47:54	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 9?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0x0712a9…
06-07 20:10:13	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 7?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x365140…
06-07 20:05:28	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xbd7392…
06-07 20:03:37	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 8?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x0697fc…
06-07 20:02:06	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 8?	Yes	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0xf08bff…
06-07 20:00:33	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 8?	Yes	BUY	109	1¢	$1	0x304d56…
06-05 02:03:37	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	26¢	$2	0xc7996b…
06-05 02:02:58	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	2¢	$1	0x4d3823…
06-05 02:02:12	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	266	0¢	$1	0x52e8f0…
06-04 11:37:39	bitcoin above 66k on june 4 2026	Yes	SELL	21	2¢	$0	0xe4ba74…
06-04 06:26:19	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 4?	Yes	BUY	31	3¢	$1	0xd6edad…
06-04 02:10:54	bitcoin above 66k on june 4 2026	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0x77a272…
06-04 02:04:57	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 4?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xfc46c2…