Complicated-Lyocell — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$27

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

84.8%

Resolved

Trades

137

lifetime

Volume

$4.21K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$31

Open exposure

$28

1 position

First seen

2026-04-19

last 06-19 08:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

39% — —

Crypto

35% 63% +$23

Other

26% 100% +$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

32 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No		+32	$28	88¢	$28	$-0	06-19 03:13

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will ethereum reach 2100 in june 2026	4	$440	240	240	+0	open	—	06-18 18:34
will bitcoin reach 75k in june 2026	2	$211	115	115	+0	open	—	06-18 12:39
will wti crude oil wti hit high 115 in june	2	$210	115	115	+0	open	—	06-14 16:11
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$181	97	97	+0	open	—	05-27 16:37
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	5	$173	119	119	+0	open	—	06-15 00:12
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	2	$133	71	71	+0	open	—	05-23 21:31
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	2	$132	71	71	+0	open	—	05-23 01:31
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	5	$131	514	487	+26	open	—	04-26 11:03
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	2	$129	68	68	+0	open	—	05-31 19:18
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	2	$124	65	65	+0	open	—	05-26 13:36
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$122	64	64	+0	open	—	05-30 05:30
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$119	63	63	+0	open	—	05-31 00:56
will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	2	$118	138	0	+138	open	—	06-19 07:05
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	4	$112	70	70	+0	open	—	06-16 13:56
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	2	$111	59	59	+0	open	—	05-18 09:26
will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	4	$110	124	0	+124	open	—	06-19 03:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	2	$103	54	54	+0	Down	+$3	05-09 04:19
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	3	$77	55	27	+28	open	—	04-23 14:53
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	3	$77	54	27	+27	No	+$3	04-24 18:57
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	3	$77	54	27	+27	open	—	04-27 07:07
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	3	$77	54	27	+27	open	—	04-26 09:03
israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	1	$74	83	0	+83	open	—	06-18 19:31
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	4	$65	47	47	+0	open	—	06-13 16:50
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	2	$55	30	30	+0	open	—	06-13 01:07
bitcoin above 64k on june 19 2026	2	$55	30	30	+0	open	—	06-19 08:33
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	2	$50	54	0	+54	open	—	04-21 04:08
will tamilaga vettri kazhagam tvk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	2	$50	55	0	+55	open	—	04-27 12:53
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	2	$50	55	0	+55	open	—	04-26 12:46
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	2	$50	55	0	+55	open	—	04-21 06:46
bitcoin above 76k on april 20	2	$50	54	0	+54	open	—	04-20 00:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-19 08:33:16	bitcoin above 64k on june 19 2026	No	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0x877745…
06-19 07:05:10	will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	No	BUY	117	86¢	$100	0xb3ea77…
06-19 03:19:58	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x10f634…
06-19 03:13:58	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	32	88¢	$28	0x795769…
06-19 03:08:13	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	19	88¢	$17	0x55fe2d…
06-19 03:04:56	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	38	89¢	$34	0x903010…
06-19 02:12:38	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	56	89¢	$50	0x27baba…
06-18 22:55:08	bitcoin above 64k on june 19 2026	No	BUY	30	86¢	$26	0xcbbd74…
06-18 20:33:55	will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	No	BUY	21	87¢	$18	0x53f1df…
06-18 19:31:28	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	83	89¢	$74	0xba22f3…
06-18 18:34:43	will ethereum reach 2100 in june 2026	No	SELL	240	97¢	$233	0xbace15…
06-18 14:24:02	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0x37216c…
06-18 14:23:47	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	BUY	9	86¢	$8	0xd096ee…
06-18 14:23:40	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	BUY	8	86¢	$7	0x73b018…
06-18 14:20:19	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	BUY	9	86¢	$8	0x12fe1e…
06-18 13:41:01	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	SELL	30	46¢	$14	0x7f8114…
06-18 13:15:55	israel closes its airspace by july 31	No	BUY	30	89¢	$27	0x3cba50…
06-18 12:39:07	will bitcoin reach 75k in june 2026	No	SELL	115	97¢	$111	0x6ed68d…
06-16 13:56:29	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	34	96¢	$33	0xc4a987…
06-16 12:31:31	will ethereum reach 2100 in june 2026	No	BUY	82	85¢	$70	0x2c38bb…
06-16 00:40:49	will ethereum reach 2100 in june 2026	No	BUY	79	87¢	$69	0x82be9c…
06-16 00:18:24	will ethereum reach 2100 in june 2026	No	BUY	78	87¢	$69	0x74899a…
06-15 02:13:36	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	BUY	30	86¢	$26	0x82645f…
06-15 00:12:03	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x375011…
06-14 16:48:12	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x487996…
06-14 16:11:22	will wti crude oil wti hit high 115 in june	No	SELL	115	96¢	$110	0xdcfeb3…
06-13 17:25:27	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	34	93¢	$32	0x1f9b94…
06-13 16:50:42	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	SELL	32	47¢	$15	0x969fdd…
06-13 16:49:09	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	SELL	5	47¢	$2	0x950054…
06-13 16:48:58	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	SELL	10	47¢	$5	0xa3bc97…
06-13 01:07:27	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	No	SELL	30	97¢	$29	0x2e1af4…
06-08 01:29:18	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	No	BUY	30	89¢	$26	0xcb5d8e…
06-08 00:28:03	will bitcoin reach 75k in june 2026	No	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0x3b17ea…
06-07 19:00:54	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	36	45¢	$16	0xda86a5…
06-07 19:00:54	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	51	48¢	$24	0x758394…
06-07 19:00:54	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	58	48¢	$28	0x212514…
06-07 14:22:45	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	47	90¢	$43	0x56e5ab…
06-05 07:03:39	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	36	87¢	$31	0xd11ada…
06-05 01:23:06	will wti crude oil wti hit high 115 in june	No	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0xbd2ba8…
06-05 01:22:31	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0x28e4bf…
05-31 19:18:12	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	68	99¢	$67	0x7bdc61…
05-31 00:56:31	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	63	98¢	$62	0x377e3b…
05-30 05:30:17	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	64	99¢	$64	0xe3ea22…
05-27 16:37:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	97	99¢	$96	0xe48119…
05-26 13:36:36	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	65	98¢	$64	0x293e55…
05-25 17:35:41	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	64	91¢	$59	0xa8b49c…
05-24 17:33:31	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	63	92¢	$57	0x064484…
05-23 21:31:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	SELL	71	98¢	$70	0xfef99a…
05-23 01:31:01	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	No	SELL	71	98¢	$69	0x823924…
05-18 17:27:28	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	No	BUY	71	89¢	$63	0xd008e0…
05-18 09:26:20	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	No	SELL	59	96¢	$57	0x74caad…
05-12 17:19:40	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	65	91¢	$59	0xfcbfc1…
05-12 09:17:11	Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 11-17?	No	BUY	41	88¢	$36	0x1b6710…
05-12 05:15:38	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	No	BUY	59	92¢	$54	0x9a9064…
05-12 01:01:04	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	BUY	71	89¢	$63	0x4c5615…
05-12 01:00:30	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	68	91¢	$62	0xa7fda1…
05-12 00:56:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	97	88¢	$85	0xc223dc…
05-11 01:31:45	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Down	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x94d6b2…
05-11 01:28:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xba6e85…
05-10 20:10:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Up	SELL	6	94¢	$6	0x76d572…
05-10 20:05:05	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x36b9f7…
05-10 19:48:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xd0f801…
05-10 19:30:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x211ed6…
05-10 17:41:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x4c5340…
05-10 17:02:25	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xa3f38c…
05-10 16:59:00	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x087470…
05-10 16:51:18	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x0bcd82…
05-10 16:46:23	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x39a196…
05-10 16:41:51	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Down	SELL	136	3¢	$4	0xb1b564…
05-10 16:41:09	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	136	4¢	$5	0xc81046…
05-10 16:15:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x04bbfd…
05-10 16:05:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0xc2065d…
05-09 06:52:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0x113aea…
05-09 06:47:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Down	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x527be5…
05-09 06:44:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	SELL	40	43¢	$17	0xc79a1f…
05-09 06:44:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	40	13¢	$5	0x1e3e6a…
05-09 06:14:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Down	SELL	6	97¢	$6	0xa48b06…
05-09 06:13:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xfc091b…
05-09 06:11:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Down	SELL	12	76¢	$9	0xb99265…
05-09 06:10:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xe915db…
05-09 06:09:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Down	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x54c94d…
05-09 06:01:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xa4c87a…
05-09 06:00:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x6a9173…
05-09 05:57:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x03a8e1…
05-09 05:46:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Down	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0xf59589…
05-09 04:19:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	SELL	54	97¢	$53	0x48abef…
05-09 04:18:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	54	92¢	$50	0xb9876a…
05-08 17:55:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x4cb0dc…
05-08 17:51:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0xed7532…
05-08 17:47:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0xf08452…
05-08 17:41:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x04f1ad…
05-08 17:35:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0xae2885…
05-08 16:47:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x5cea55…
05-08 16:16:27	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x6ffec3…
05-08 16:10:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x757c20…
04-28 00:55:42	Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	27	93¢	$25	0x50ce28…
04-27 12:53:08	will tamilaga vettri kazhagam tvk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	No	BUY	28	91¢	$25	0x3177e8…
04-27 08:52:00	Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	28	90¢	$25	0x063595…
04-27 07:07:26	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	SELL	27	98¢	$27	0x7cc7fd…
04-27 04:50:54	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 28?	No	BUY	27	92¢	$25	0xf8327a…