Complicated-Lyocell — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$27

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

84.8%

Resolved

Trades

190

lifetime

Volume

$6.63K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$35

Open exposure

$27

1 position

First seen

2026-04-19

last 07-11 23:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Crypto

43% 63% +$23

Politics

30% — —

Other

25% 100% +$3

Sports

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

45 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No		+32	$28	85¢	$27	$-1	06-19 03:13

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will ethereum reach 2100 in june 2026	4	$440	240	240	+0	open	—	06-18 18:34
will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	3	$251	138	138	+0	open	—	06-27 22:36
will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	5	$229	124	124	+0	open	—	06-20 19:27
will bitcoin reach 75k in june 2026	2	$211	115	115	+0	open	—	06-18 12:39
will wti crude oil wti hit high 115 in june	2	$210	115	115	+0	open	—	06-14 16:11
will ethereum dip to 1500 june 29 july 5 2026	4	$210	115	115	+0	open	—	07-02 13:25
will bitcoin dip to 54k june 29 july 5 2026	3	$208	112	112	+0	open	—	07-01 15:25
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$181	97	97	+0	open	—	05-27 16:37
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	5	$173	119	119	+0	open	—	06-15 00:12
israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	2	$155	83	83	+0	open	—	06-26 22:58
fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 penalty shootout	2	$147	79	79	+0	open	—	07-11 23:49
fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 goals harry kane gte2	2	$147	79	79	+0	open	—	07-11 23:03
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	2	$133	71	71	+0	open	—	05-23 21:31
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	2	$132	71	71	+0	open	—	05-23 01:31
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	5	$131	514	487	+26	open	—	04-26 11:03
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	2	$129	68	68	+0	open	—	05-31 19:18
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	2	$124	65	65	+0	open	—	05-26 13:36
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$122	64	64	+0	open	—	05-30 05:30
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$119	63	63	+0	open	—	05-31 00:56
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	4	$112	70	70	+0	open	—	06-16 13:56
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	2	$111	59	59	+0	open	—	05-18 09:26
will france reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120767	2	$111	59	59	+0	open	—	06-30 23:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	2	$103	54	54	+0	Down	+$3	05-09 04:19
bitcoin above 60k on july 1 2026	2	$97	53	53	+0	open	—	07-01 10:52
will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in july 2026	1	$96	107	0	+107	open	—	07-02 15:32
will bitcoin reach 61k on june 30	2	$94	51	51	+0	open	—	06-30 15:31
will bitcoin reach 62500 in june 2026 from june 25	2	$92	50	50	+0	open	—	06-30 02:19
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	2	$84	44	44	+0	open	—	06-21 03:56
ethereum above 1600 on june 27 2026	3	$83	83	83	+0	open	—	06-27 15:15
will bitcoin reach 65000 in june 2026 from june 25	2	$82	44	44	+0	open	—	06-28 16:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-11 23:49:04	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 penalty shootout	No	SELL	79	100¢	$79	0xdb57a9…
07-11 23:03:04	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 goals harry kane gte2	No	SELL	79	100¢	$79	0x84db6c…
07-11 14:26:22	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 goals harry kane gte2	No	BUY	79	86¢	$68	0xf45a42…
07-11 14:25:49	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 penalty shootout	No	BUY	79	86¢	$68	0xa7f13e…
07-11 14:23:05	will bitcoin reach 68k july 6 12 2026	No	SELL	32	99¢	$32	0x2fc8b9…
07-07 02:33:01	will bitcoin reach 68k july 6 12 2026	No	BUY	32	89¢	$29	0x9448c0…
07-04 17:51:41	will bitcoin reach 64k june 29 july 5 2026	No	SELL	59	48¢	$28	0xaa7bdd…
07-02 15:32:20	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	107	89¢	$96	0xe5606b…
07-02 14:04:04	bitcoin above 62k on july 2 2026	No	SELL	51	58¢	$30	0x4fb95b…
07-02 13:25:40	will ethereum dip to 1500 june 29 july 5 2026	No	SELL	17	96¢	$17	0x89b860…
07-02 13:24:13	will ethereum dip to 1500 june 29 july 5 2026	No	SELL	18	96¢	$17	0xe4759b…
07-02 13:24:05	will ethereum dip to 1500 june 29 july 5 2026	No	SELL	80	96¢	$77	0x52b888…
07-02 02:53:32	will bitcoin reach 70k in july 2026	No	BUY	78	86¢	$67	0x4cd4c8…
07-02 02:52:56	will ethereum dip to 1500 june 29 july 5 2026	No	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0x1838c4…
07-02 02:15:40	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	No	SELL	33	97¢	$32	0x47c382…
07-01 22:47:29	bitcoin above 62k on july 2 2026	No	BUY	51	89¢	$46	0xb1da23…
07-01 18:41:55	will bitcoin reach 64k june 29 july 5 2026	No	BUY	59	89¢	$52	0x6664fc…
07-01 15:25:07	will bitcoin dip to 54k june 29 july 5 2026	No	SELL	107	96¢	$103	0x4e4c71…
07-01 15:24:46	will bitcoin dip to 54k june 29 july 5 2026	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x48e154…
07-01 13:22:17	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	SELL	31	97¢	$30	0x743bd2…
07-01 10:52:46	bitcoin above 60k on july 1 2026	No	SELL	53	96¢	$51	0xd94a80…
07-01 06:43:02	will bitcoin dip to 54k june 29 july 5 2026	No	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0x5b5768…
06-30 23:45:17	will france reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120767	Yes	SELL	59	100¢	$59	0xfc9abc…
06-30 15:33:37	bitcoin above 60k on july 1 2026	No	BUY	53	85¢	$45	0xf5a7c6…
06-30 15:31:41	will bitcoin reach 61k on june 30	No	SELL	51	98¢	$50	0x17be3a…
06-30 10:27:44	will bitcoin reach 61k on june 30	No	BUY	51	87¢	$44	0xc93f6a…
06-30 02:19:47	will bitcoin reach 62500 in june 2026 from june 25	No	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0xaced29…
06-29 21:59:44	will bitcoin reach 62500 in june 2026 from june 25	No	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0x393807…
06-29 18:15:07	wta muchova zakharo 2026 06 29	Karolina Muchova	SELL	30	96¢	$28	0xa09157…
06-29 18:14:25	wta muchova zakharo 2026 06 29	Karolina Muchova	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xf3d95c…
06-28 16:08:19	will bitcoin reach 65000 in june 2026 from june 25	No	SELL	44	97¢	$42	0x745b99…
06-28 00:21:35	will france reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120767	Yes	BUY	59	88¢	$52	0x0e614d…
06-27 23:26:01	will bitcoin reach 61k on june 27	No	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0xe6f206…
06-27 22:58:25	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	BUY	31	90¢	$28	0x4897cb…
06-27 22:57:52	wta muchova zakharo 2026 06 29	Karolina Muchova	BUY	35	86¢	$30	0x16a06e…
06-27 22:36:37	will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	No	SELL	138	96¢	$133	0x7eec09…
06-27 19:53:43	will bitcoin reach 61k on june 27	No	BUY	30	88¢	$26	0xf19564…
06-27 15:15:04	ethereum above 1600 on june 27 2026	No	SELL	43	12¢	$5	0x471496…
06-27 15:15:02	ethereum above 1600 on june 27 2026	No	SELL	40	12¢	$5	0x27a175…
06-27 08:13:38	ethereum above 1600 on june 27 2026	No	BUY	83	88¢	$73	0x2121ea…
06-27 03:18:40	fifwc egy irn 2026 06 26 total 3pt5	Under	SELL	25	43¢	$11	0x8740c9…
06-27 03:08:28	fifwc egy irn 2026 06 26 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	14	66¢	$9	0xa23016…
06-27 03:08:28	fifwc egy irn 2026 06 26 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0x708f4c…
06-27 03:08:28	fifwc egy irn 2026 06 26 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x55aed6…
06-26 22:58:16	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	SELL	83	97¢	$81	0xc61b09…
06-26 15:54:55	will bitcoin reach 65000 in june 2026 from june 25	No	BUY	44	89¢	$39	0x50c32a…
06-26 12:40:32	ethereum above 1600 on june 26 2026	No	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0x25591f…
06-26 01:10:44	ethereum above 1600 on june 26 2026	No	BUY	30	84¢	$25	0xe2cacb…
06-23 08:32:10	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	SELL	33	97¢	$32	0x001195…
06-21 16:22:01	israel closes its airspace by july 15	No	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0xcc952a…
06-21 03:56:14	Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	SELL	44	97¢	$43	0x0a1a3b…
06-20 21:26:07	Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	BUY	44	94¢	$41	0x083a8d…
06-20 19:27:32	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	124	97¢	$119	0x2bc221…
06-19 08:33:16	bitcoin above 64k on june 19 2026	No	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0x877745…
06-19 07:05:10	will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	No	BUY	117	86¢	$100	0xb3ea77…
06-19 03:19:58	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x10f634…
06-19 03:13:58	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	32	88¢	$28	0x795769…
06-19 03:08:13	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	19	88¢	$17	0x55fe2d…
06-19 03:04:56	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	38	89¢	$34	0x903010…
06-19 02:12:38	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	56	89¢	$50	0x27baba…
06-18 22:55:08	bitcoin above 64k on june 19 2026	No	BUY	30	86¢	$26	0xcbbd74…
06-18 20:33:55	will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	No	BUY	21	87¢	$18	0x53f1df…
06-18 19:31:28	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	83	89¢	$74	0xba22f3…
06-18 18:34:43	will ethereum reach 2100 in june 2026	No	SELL	240	97¢	$233	0xbace15…
06-18 14:24:02	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0x37216c…
06-18 14:23:47	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	BUY	9	86¢	$8	0xd096ee…
06-18 14:23:40	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	BUY	8	86¢	$7	0x73b018…
06-18 14:20:19	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	BUY	9	86¢	$8	0x12fe1e…
06-18 13:41:01	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	SELL	30	46¢	$14	0x7f8114…
06-18 13:15:55	israel closes its airspace by july 31	No	BUY	30	89¢	$27	0x3cba50…
06-18 12:39:07	will bitcoin reach 75k in june 2026	No	SELL	115	97¢	$111	0x6ed68d…
06-16 13:56:29	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	34	96¢	$33	0xc4a987…
06-16 12:31:31	will ethereum reach 2100 in june 2026	No	BUY	82	85¢	$70	0x2c38bb…
06-16 00:40:49	will ethereum reach 2100 in june 2026	No	BUY	79	87¢	$69	0x82be9c…
06-16 00:18:24	will ethereum reach 2100 in june 2026	No	BUY	78	87¢	$69	0x74899a…
06-15 02:13:36	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	BUY	30	86¢	$26	0x82645f…
06-15 00:12:03	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x375011…
06-14 16:48:12	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x487996…
06-14 16:11:22	will wti crude oil wti hit high 115 in june	No	SELL	115	96¢	$110	0xdcfeb3…
06-13 17:25:27	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	34	93¢	$32	0x1f9b94…
06-13 16:50:42	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	SELL	32	47¢	$15	0x969fdd…
06-13 16:49:09	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	SELL	5	47¢	$2	0x950054…
06-13 16:48:58	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	SELL	10	47¢	$5	0xa3bc97…
06-13 01:07:27	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	No	SELL	30	97¢	$29	0x2e1af4…
06-08 01:29:18	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	No	BUY	30	89¢	$26	0xcb5d8e…
06-08 00:28:03	will bitcoin reach 75k in june 2026	No	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0x3b17ea…
06-07 19:00:54	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	36	45¢	$16	0xda86a5…
06-07 19:00:54	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	51	48¢	$24	0x758394…
06-07 19:00:54	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	58	48¢	$28	0x212514…
06-07 14:22:45	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	47	90¢	$43	0x56e5ab…
06-05 07:03:39	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	36	87¢	$31	0xd11ada…
06-05 01:23:06	will wti crude oil wti hit high 115 in june	No	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0xbd2ba8…
06-05 01:22:31	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0x28e4bf…
05-31 19:18:12	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	68	99¢	$67	0x7bdc61…
05-31 00:56:31	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	63	98¢	$62	0x377e3b…
05-30 05:30:17	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	64	99¢	$64	0xe3ea22…
05-27 16:37:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	97	99¢	$96	0xe48119…
05-26 13:36:36	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	65	98¢	$64	0x293e55…
05-25 17:35:41	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	64	91¢	$59	0xa8b49c…
05-24 17:33:31	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	63	92¢	$57	0x064484…