Disastrous-Pen — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

-$8

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

52.0%

Resolved (30d)

Trades (30d)

20,096 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$220

$1.26M lifetime

Avg / trade

$63

Open exposure

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-26

last 10-10 16:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 119 days

Categories

Other

65% 92% -$176

Politics

17% 92% -$1,981

Crypto

14% 92% +$305

Tech

3% 100% +$64

Sports

0% 81% +$11

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Israel strike 13 countries in 2026?	No	+3	$3	100¢	$3	+$0	08-09 19:28
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+0	$0	100¢	$0	+$0	09-07 00:28
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	+0	$0	100¢	$0	+$0	07-30 02:05
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+0	$0	100¢	$0	+$0	09-05 21:59

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	252	$19.5K	11,094	8,701	+2,393	No	+$39	03-28 01:41
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	179	$15.7K	8,944	6,864	+2,081	No	+$23	03-28 08:08
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	156	$14.8K	8,155	6,796	+1,359	No	+$20	03-29 09:51
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	179	$14.0K	7,955	6,210	+1,745	No	+$33	03-30 17:26
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?	238	$13.6K	7,181	6,551	+630	No	+$13	04-12 09:25
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	126	$13.1K	7,694	5,556	+2,137	No	+$23	03-31 02:45
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	205	$12.2K	6,849	5,504	+1,344	Yes	+$17	03-30 12:34
netanyahu out by march 31 854	127	$12.1K	7,243	5,026	+2,216	No	+$27	03-31 06:12
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	116	$10.9K	6,121	4,920	+1,202	No	+$17	03-30 04:22
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	105	$10.7K	5,665	5,183	+482	No	+$9	03-18 14:13
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	98	$10.7K	5,586	5,214	+372	No	+$10	04-15 02:13
will bitcoin dip to 50k in march 2026	150	$10.3K	5,504	5,002	+503	No	+$13	03-30 10:20
will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	134	$10.3K	5,470	5,011	+459	No	+$12	03-30 09:42
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	148	$10.3K	5,727	4,650	+1,078	Yes	+$12	03-24 18:04
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	117	$10.1K	6,135	4,150	+1,985	Yes	-$1,956	04-05 09:56
Netanyahu out by April 30?	159	$9.9K	5,986	4,107	+1,879	No	+$35	04-20 10:59
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	131	$9.7K	5,838	4,028	+1,809	Yes	+$42	04-17 05:16
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	110	$9.6K	5,421	4,372	+1,049	No	+$24	04-15 11:43
will openai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	226	$9.6K	5,426	4,249	+1,177	No	+$21	02-27 07:29
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	86	$9.4K	4,820	4,693	+127	Yes	+$4	03-18 14:12
will bitcoin reach 95k in march 2026	98	$9.1K	4,720	4,480	+240	No	+$16	03-18 07:38
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	137	$8.8K	4,790	4,103	+687	No	+$16	04-21 20:18
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?	133	$8.3K	4,418	3,933	+485	No	+$8	04-01 11:22
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	88	$8.1K	4,239	3,932	+307	No	+$7	04-20 10:59
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	91	$8.0K	4,182	3,954	+229	Yes	+$17	03-11 04:03
will bitcoin dip to 60k in march 2026	108	$7.9K	4,717	3,250	+1,467	No	+$19	03-31 16:46
will bitcoin reach 90k in march 2026	110	$7.8K	4,337	3,578	+759	No	+$16	03-28 05:37
elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 220 239	84	$7.6K	4,235	3,452	+783	No	+$11	03-26 15:42
will deepseek have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	166	$7.5K	4,426	3,139	+1,288	No	+$19	02-25 02:33
will bitcoin reach 80000 in february 298	131	$7.3K	3,966	3,459	+507	No	+$18	02-27 13:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-10 16:59:37	Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xc41c90…
10-10 16:59:33	Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x9c5ce0…
10-10 16:59:28	Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0xf343c8…
10-10 16:59:21	Will Chicago White Sox win the 2026 American League Championship Series?	No	SELL	54	84¢	$46	0x17b649…
10-06 15:46:44	Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	108	100¢	$108	0xb0d71b…
09-07 16:57:12	Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x42ab5d…
09-07 00:28:19	Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x7ee314…
09-05 21:59:28	Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x15832d…
09-04 10:12:09	Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x4c890d…
08-28 14:29:54	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	27	98¢	$27	0x456957…
08-24 17:04:58	Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x0c9feb…
08-24 08:30:25	Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xf81de6…
08-24 07:38:33	Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x642c11…
08-24 07:37:28	Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x45a0a4…
08-24 07:10:37	Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x668856…
08-24 07:10:27	Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x626861…
08-24 06:38:55	Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0xaf53c9…
08-24 05:18:57	Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x30d8fb…
08-24 04:01:48	Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x24b375…
08-24 04:00:54	Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x89bda0…
08-24 04:00:49	Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc6d7fd…
08-24 03:47:13	Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xbc94d0…
08-23 17:39:34	Will Tyreek Hill play for the Chicago Bears next?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xb18637…
08-18 20:52:03	Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0xe04edc…
08-18 12:09:21	Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x76b6ca…
08-17 16:26:22	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xaa7160…
08-14 23:15:21	Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x7aa60a…
08-14 14:52:39	Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xf590ad…
08-14 13:15:06	Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xd58d6f…
08-14 10:48:30	Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xa8e566…
08-14 10:48:22	Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$5	0xaf3ea0…
08-14 08:48:21	Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x5c0b9d…
08-14 08:47:57	Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x8ab6d7…
08-14 07:58:16	Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0xdb0cd8…
08-14 07:25:06	Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x04128b…
08-14 07:23:24	Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0x6785f6…
08-14 07:22:42	Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x45c55d…
08-14 06:33:18	Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x5c0472…
08-14 06:02:33	Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xfcf7a4…
08-14 04:49:57	Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$2	0xe7788b…
08-14 04:29:25	Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xb72a95…
08-11 08:09:12	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	SELL	34	99¢	$33	0x739a34…
08-10 19:48:55	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xcfb1b7…
08-10 18:49:52	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xfef914…
08-10 17:38:12	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0xa97711…
08-10 17:37:33	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x91428e…
08-10 17:35:52	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x43d66a…
08-10 17:35:19	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x71c9b3…
08-10 14:32:34	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0xb662ef…
08-10 14:04:18	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0xb68e77…
08-10 14:04:00	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x1d0792…
08-10 07:58:13	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0xc4be89…
08-10 07:02:39	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xf6ed7c…
08-10 07:02:27	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x658acf…
08-10 07:01:55	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x2150f9…
08-09 20:24:52	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0xcf67f9…
08-09 19:28:57	Will Israel strike 13 countries in 2026?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x0fc5c6…
08-09 19:09:24	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x086414…
08-07 00:31:18	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xbc5121…
08-07 00:31:17	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	SELL	21	99¢	$21	0xa55916…
08-04 01:07:45	Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0xd05d74…
08-02 11:03:33	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	SELL	18	98¢	$17	0x796225…
08-02 09:17:56	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x6c664d…
08-02 07:49:11	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	28	98¢	$27	0xc0b00f…
08-02 02:11:56	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0xd51120…
08-01 15:45:11	Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0xdbcbdd…
08-01 15:43:23	Will Desire Doue win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x6a06e6…
07-30 02:05:32	Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x8ae068…
07-30 00:42:39	Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x5a55bf…
07-30 00:41:57	Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x5b62ba…
07-30 00:31:18	Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xe34c2e…
07-30 00:13:44	Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x8c069a…
07-30 00:11:00	Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$5	0xfea897…
07-29 23:42:26	Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0xa0b192…
07-29 18:00:06	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	55	98¢	$54	0x6a48b3…
07-29 15:18:20	Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xab68cf…
07-28 18:16:08	Will Tyreek Hill play for the Chicago Bears next?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xac8994…
07-27 20:00:48	Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x60bcff…
07-27 14:42:36	Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x0fa6e5…
07-27 09:43:43	Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x381f54…
07-27 09:36:09	Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9460d5…
07-27 09:35:57	Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x15fde2…
07-27 09:28:16	Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xefcb41…
07-27 08:11:19	Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xb944ae…
07-27 08:09:06	Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x073bfd…
07-27 08:07:13	Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x9ec644…
07-27 00:08:52	Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x4e30e4…
07-26 23:08:33	Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0xec0836…
07-26 21:18:24	Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x04b9bc…
07-26 21:16:16	Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x3663aa…
07-26 21:14:10	Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x2d8701…
07-26 21:12:04	Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x066587…
07-26 00:55:46	Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xe7738a…
07-24 16:51:27	Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x17661f…
07-24 16:39:24	Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x31b8a9…
07-24 15:57:07	Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x65216f…
07-24 15:15:07	Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xb890c5…
07-24 14:55:33	Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x4cc450…
07-24 13:29:07	Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x23c920…
07-24 11:47:21	Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x0be38f…