Immaterial-Ptarmigan — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.22K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.7%

Resolved

Trades

881

lifetime

Volume

$108.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$123

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-23

last 08-02 05:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

62% — —

Other

35% 75% +$1,065

Sports

2% 100% +$151

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

42 active days in 12wk • peak 57 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	23	$11.5K	13,809	13,809	+0	open	—	03-01 04:23
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	21	$6.0K	14,196	10,790	+3,406	open	—	06-14 10:36
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	51	$5.9K	49,788	50,352	-564	open	—	05-25 15:27
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	15	$5.6K	27,872	27,872	+0	open	—	04-21 17:47
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	28	$4.8K	78,316	78,316	+0	open	—	03-25 13:08
kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	118	$4.0K	84,949	72,237	+12,713	open	—	07-26 19:40
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	11	$3.9K	3,010	3,010	+0	open	—	04-22 03:21
iran closes its airspace by june 8	12	$3.9K	7,860	7,860	+0	open	—	06-07 19:52
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	11	$3.5K	12,596	12,596	+0	open	—	06-17 17:40
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	16	$2.8K	3,619	3,619	+0	open	—	04-24 12:00
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	13	$2.8K	10,418	10,418	+0	open	—	07-28 12:49
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	5	$2.7K	1,773	1,773	+0	open	—	03-16 22:45
israel closes its airspace by june 10	41	$2.6K	36,869	0	+36,869	open	—	06-10 22:32
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	6	$2.5K	6,382	6,382	+0	open	—	03-28 10:38
iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	18	$2.3K	6,399	6,388	+11	open	—	07-13 20:18
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	31	$2.2K	26,900	25,955	+945	open	—	06-07 21:27
israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	34	$2.0K	13,844	13,844	+0	open	—	07-31 23:54
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	13	$1.9K	7,800	7,800	+0	open	—	05-30 04:06
Iran leadership change by May 31?	14	$1.9K	19,716	19,716	+0	open	—	05-23 18:25
iran leadership change by march 31	4	$1.5K	3,633	3,633	+0	open	—	03-13 13:58
israel closes its airspace by june 8	20	$1.5K	2,980	2,235	+745	open	—	06-08 07:30
us strikes iran by february 21 2026	6	$1.5K	11,313	8,813	+2,500	open	—	02-19 19:33
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	12	$1.3K	22,607	20,608	+1,999	open	—	07-20 11:37
israel closes its airspace by july 24	19	$1.3K	8,450	8,450	+0	open	—	07-24 08:39
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	14	$1.3K	12,180	12,180	+0	open	—	05-22 21:45
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 17?	4	$1.2K	2,730	0	+2,730	open	—	05-15 15:46
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5	2	$997	698	698	+0	Under	+$397	05-06 21:06
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	15	$947	825	825	+0	open	—	07-07 20:27
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	15	$832	4,926	4,926	+0	open	—	05-25 21:47
usisrael strike on fordow nuclear facility by march 15	4	$814	3,757	3,757	+0	open	—	03-14 12:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-02 05:58:44	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	SELL	3,333	2¢	$72	0x82183f…
08-01 01:55:56	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	BUY	275	12¢	$33	0xf9b555…
08-01 01:01:56	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	BUY	750	12¢	$90	0xc77161…
08-01 00:58:41	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	BUY	6	12¢	$1	0xd7f243…
08-01 00:27:56	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	BUY	80	12¢	$10	0x16b02a…
08-01 00:00:17	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	BUY	9	12¢	$1	0x176ac1…
07-31 23:56:27	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	BUY	1,880	12¢	$226	0x0780a2…
07-31 23:54:59	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	7,000	2¢	$105	0x54f7f0…
07-31 22:19:20	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	BUY	5,000	2¢	$85	0xd1d376…
07-31 21:58:09	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	BUY	6	11¢	$1	0x32420e…
07-31 21:57:29	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	BUY	6	11¢	$1	0x4e19e4…
07-31 21:57:29	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	BUY	6	11¢	$1	0x399c99…
07-31 21:52:12	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	BUY	6	11¢	$1	0x59eed9…
07-31 21:51:59	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	BUY	3	11¢	$0	0x6a6adb…
07-31 21:49:12	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	BUY	6	11¢	$1	0x4b48d7…
07-31 21:46:48	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	BUY	6	11¢	$1	0xcefcb9…
07-31 21:46:15	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	BUY	6	11¢	$1	0x37c699…
07-31 21:46:14	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	BUY	6	11¢	$1	0xf238d9…
07-31 21:42:50	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	BUY	285	11¢	$31	0x647afa…
07-31 21:28:11	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	Yes	BUY	28	3¢	$1	0x1a0da9…
07-31 21:27:57	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0xd40cdd…
07-31 21:27:57	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x5f5927…
07-31 21:27:56	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	Yes	BUY	21	3¢	$1	0x375a0d…
07-28 12:49:46	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	SELL	6,258	1¢	$67	0xd4634c…
07-26 19:40:57	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	BUY	37	1¢	$0	0x6d9c8c…
07-26 19:40:55	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	BUY	2,351	2¢	$42	0x495338…
07-26 19:40:42	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	BUY	1,890	2¢	$36	0xf53897…
07-26 19:40:39	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	BUY	24	2¢	$0	0xad9dbb…
07-26 19:40:39	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	BUY	18	2¢	$0	0xaac3ba…
07-26 19:40:37	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	BUY	8	2¢	$0	0x2c04c1…
07-26 19:40:36	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	BUY	1,000	2¢	$19	0x337277…
07-26 19:39:34	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	BUY	2,000	2¢	$40	0xa156f2…
07-26 19:39:25	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	BUY	1,300	2¢	$26	0x8e5dfb…
07-26 19:38:52	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	BUY	800	2¢	$16	0x81d57d…
07-26 19:38:52	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	BUY	21	2¢	$0	0x756ca4…
07-26 19:38:48	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	BUY	1,756	2¢	$33	0x792979…
07-26 19:38:33	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	BUY	283	2¢	$5	0x00f602…
07-26 19:38:21	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	BUY	249	2¢	$4	0xf7a78d…
07-26 19:38:03	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	BUY	32	1¢	$0	0x2ad827…
07-26 10:33:18	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	4,515	5¢	$226	0xef9d78…
07-25 18:01:01	btc updown 5m 1785002400	Down	BUY	397	25¢	$100	0xc35ce4…
07-25 10:00:30	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	2	17¢	$0	0x1d267e…
07-25 09:36:03	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	55	17¢	$9	0x699d08…
07-25 00:44:36	iran full airspace closure by july 24	Yes	BUY	874	3¢	$26	0x5878d4…
07-25 00:44:24	iran full airspace closure by july 24	Yes	BUY	44	3¢	$1	0xba6a02…
07-25 00:44:24	iran full airspace closure by july 24	Yes	BUY	81	3¢	$2	0xaf199c…
07-24 18:01:45	btc updown 5m 1784916000	Up	BUY	286	35¢	$100	0xa40b60…
07-24 14:40:33	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	600	23¢	$138	0x651a51…
07-24 14:20:45	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	43	30¢	$13	0xe5a171…
07-24 13:00:40	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	600	35¢	$210	0x151077…
07-24 12:57:40	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	3	35¢	$1	0x0310f3…
07-24 12:56:55	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	23	35¢	$8	0x6dddcc…
07-24 12:54:52	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	4	35¢	$1	0xc28300…
07-24 12:54:40	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	6	35¢	$2	0x486965…
07-24 12:53:04	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	8	35¢	$3	0xd54db7…
07-24 12:52:01	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	3	35¢	$1	0xd18233…
07-24 12:49:10	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	532	35¢	$186	0x1aa967…
07-24 08:39:21	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	SELL	2,380	6¢	$143	0x7aaef3…
07-24 08:12:42	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	Yes	SELL	3,711	1¢	$24	0xc40205…
07-24 07:33:28	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	SELL	2,000	7¢	$140	0xb55043…
07-22 17:38:36	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	Yes	BUY	598	5¢	$29	0x0d54bc…
07-22 17:29:52	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	Yes	BUY	12	5¢	$1	0x05c9be…
07-22 17:29:10	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	Yes	BUY	2,100	5¢	$101	0xb5b410…
07-22 17:23:06	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	630	11¢	$69	0x80d422…
07-22 16:41:46	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	Yes	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x9cb437…
07-22 16:16:07	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	1,600	11¢	$176	0xa9d77f…
07-22 16:12:39	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	45	10¢	$5	0xeaa043…
07-22 16:12:03	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	1,810	11¢	$199	0x1cc742…
07-22 16:12:01	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xb6214a…
07-22 16:11:58	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	2,162	10¢	$216	0x52a425…
07-20 15:51:39	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	142	17¢	$24	0x15cd3f…
07-20 15:35:27	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	50	17¢	$8	0x0b6b80…
07-20 15:23:04	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	29	17¢	$5	0xf0cd2c…
07-20 15:22:36	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	12	17¢	$2	0x78e45f…
07-20 15:19:49	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	59	17¢	$10	0xbc1e47…
07-20 15:05:16	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	6	17¢	$1	0xc9c269…
07-20 14:47:30	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	100	17¢	$17	0x465401…
07-20 14:41:42	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	53	17¢	$9	0x016fc5…
07-20 12:17:52	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	SELL	4,000	5¢	$200	0x4cf8cf…
07-20 12:02:25	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	SELL	50	8¢	$4	0x589902…
07-20 12:01:22	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0xff658b…
07-20 11:37:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	894	2¢	$17	0x6c2a88…
07-20 11:10:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$10	0xfa998c…
07-20 11:04:16	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	1,169	9¢	$105	0x9add6b…
07-20 11:03:25	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	618	9¢	$56	0xc7bd27…
07-20 11:03:25	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0xbd2ba2…
07-20 11:02:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	91	2¢	$2	0x13587b…
07-20 10:55:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	14	2¢	$0	0xcf6b26…
07-20 10:40:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$10	0xcccd6a…
07-20 10:34:12	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	1,529	9¢	$138	0xee4217…
07-20 10:33:54	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	33	9¢	$3	0x8b6ebc…
07-20 10:33:48	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	32	9¢	$3	0xaf96ee…
07-20 10:33:48	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	31	9¢	$3	0x55a8c4…
07-20 10:33:40	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	1,500	12¢	$175	0xca4290…
07-20 10:33:40	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	40	9¢	$4	0xc68ca0…
07-20 09:57:54	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	Yes	BUY	931	8¢	$74	0x23b5fd…
07-20 09:54:12	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	47	9¢	$4	0x665c5a…
07-20 09:53:16	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	2,529	10¢	$253	0x982364…
07-20 09:53:16	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	593	10¢	$59	0x20394e…
07-20 09:53:06	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	Yes	BUY	69	8¢	$6	0xb9398d…