Immaterial-Ptarmigan — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.22K

Unrealized P&L

+$7

Hit rate

99.7%

Resolved

Trades

810

lifetime

Volume

$105.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$130

Open exposure

$21

1 position

First seen

2026-01-23

last 07-20 15:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

61% — —

Other

35% 75% +$1,065

Sports

2% 100% +$151

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

46 active days in 12wk • peak 57 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes		+1,999	$14	1¢	$21	+$7	07-20 11:37

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	23	$11.5K	13,809	13,809	+0	open	—	03-01 04:23
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	21	$6.0K	14,196	10,790	+3,406	open	—	06-14 10:36
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	51	$5.9K	49,788	50,352	-564	open	—	05-25 15:27
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	15	$5.6K	27,872	27,872	+0	open	—	04-21 17:47
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	28	$4.8K	78,316	78,316	+0	open	—	03-25 13:08
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	11	$3.9K	3,010	3,010	+0	open	—	04-22 03:21
iran closes its airspace by june 8	12	$3.9K	7,860	7,860	+0	open	—	06-07 19:52
kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	103	$3.7K	73,181	72,237	+944	open	—	07-18 19:21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	11	$3.5K	12,596	12,596	+0	open	—	06-17 17:40
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	16	$2.8K	3,619	3,619	+0	open	—	04-24 12:00
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	5	$2.7K	1,773	1,773	+0	open	—	03-16 22:45
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	11	$2.6K	9,788	4,160	+5,628	open	—	07-22 16:16
israel closes its airspace by june 10	41	$2.6K	36,869	0	+36,869	open	—	06-10 22:32
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	6	$2.5K	6,382	6,382	+0	open	—	03-28 10:38
iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	18	$2.3K	6,399	6,388	+11	open	—	07-13 20:18
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	31	$2.2K	26,900	25,955	+945	open	—	06-07 21:27
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	13	$1.9K	7,800	7,800	+0	open	—	05-30 04:06
Iran leadership change by May 31?	14	$1.9K	19,716	19,716	+0	open	—	05-23 18:25
iran leadership change by march 31	4	$1.5K	3,633	3,633	+0	open	—	03-13 13:58
israel closes its airspace by june 8	20	$1.5K	2,980	2,235	+745	open	—	06-08 07:30
us strikes iran by february 21 2026	6	$1.5K	11,313	8,813	+2,500	open	—	02-19 19:33
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	12	$1.3K	22,607	20,608	+1,999	open	—	07-20 11:37
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	14	$1.3K	12,180	12,180	+0	open	—	05-22 21:45
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 17?	4	$1.2K	2,730	0	+2,730	open	—	05-15 15:46
israel closes its airspace by july 24	17	$1.0K	8,450	4,070	+4,380	open	—	07-20 12:17
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5	2	$997	698	698	+0	Under	+$397	05-06 21:06
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	15	$947	825	825	+0	open	—	07-07 20:27
israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	18	$947	6,844	450	+6,394	open	—	07-20 15:51
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	15	$832	4,926	4,926	+0	open	—	05-25 21:47
usisrael strike on fordow nuclear facility by march 15	4	$814	3,757	3,757	+0	open	—	03-14 12:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-22 16:41:46	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	Yes	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x9cb437…
07-22 16:16:07	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	1,600	11¢	$176	0xa9d77f…
07-22 16:12:39	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	45	10¢	$5	0xeaa043…
07-22 16:12:03	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	1,810	11¢	$199	0x1cc742…
07-22 16:12:01	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xb6214a…
07-22 16:11:58	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	2,162	10¢	$216	0x52a425…
07-20 15:51:39	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	142	17¢	$24	0x15cd3f…
07-20 15:35:27	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	50	17¢	$8	0x0b6b80…
07-20 15:23:04	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	29	17¢	$5	0xf0cd2c…
07-20 15:22:36	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	12	17¢	$2	0x78e45f…
07-20 15:19:49	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	59	17¢	$10	0xbc1e47…
07-20 15:05:16	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	6	17¢	$1	0xc9c269…
07-20 14:47:30	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	100	17¢	$17	0x465401…
07-20 14:41:42	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	53	17¢	$9	0x016fc5…
07-20 12:17:52	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	SELL	4,000	5¢	$200	0x4cf8cf…
07-20 12:02:25	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	SELL	50	8¢	$4	0x589902…
07-20 12:01:22	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0xff658b…
07-20 11:37:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	894	2¢	$17	0x6c2a88…
07-20 11:10:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$10	0xfa998c…
07-20 11:04:16	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	1,169	9¢	$105	0x9add6b…
07-20 11:03:25	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	618	9¢	$56	0xc7bd27…
07-20 11:03:25	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0xbd2ba2…
07-20 11:02:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	91	2¢	$2	0x13587b…
07-20 10:55:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	14	2¢	$0	0xcf6b26…
07-20 10:40:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$10	0xcccd6a…
07-20 10:34:12	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	1,529	9¢	$138	0xee4217…
07-20 10:33:54	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	33	9¢	$3	0x8b6ebc…
07-20 10:33:48	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	32	9¢	$3	0xaf96ee…
07-20 10:33:48	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	31	9¢	$3	0x55a8c4…
07-20 10:33:40	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	1,500	12¢	$175	0xca4290…
07-20 10:33:40	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	40	9¢	$4	0xc68ca0…
07-20 09:57:54	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	Yes	BUY	931	8¢	$74	0x23b5fd…
07-20 09:54:12	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	47	9¢	$4	0x665c5a…
07-20 09:53:16	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	2,529	10¢	$253	0x982364…
07-20 09:53:16	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	593	10¢	$59	0x20394e…
07-20 09:53:06	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	Yes	BUY	69	8¢	$6	0xb9398d…
07-20 09:53:03	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	148	10¢	$15	0x71f3b3…
07-20 09:52:22	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	180	10¢	$18	0x8bad21…
07-19 17:50:12	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	No	SELL	7,684	0¢	$25	0x8ed081…
07-19 12:51:25	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	No	BUY	2,584	2¢	$63	0x9ac60b…
07-18 20:31:58	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	No	BUY	1,037	4¢	$46	0x81c47d…
07-18 19:56:57	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	No	BUY	63	4¢	$3	0x9cd3a2…
07-18 19:54:46	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	No	BUY	2,200	5¢	$103	0x30634e…
07-18 19:21:03	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x790264…
07-18 19:21:03	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	BUY	15	4¢	$1	0x02dc56…
07-18 19:19:24	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	BUY	747	4¢	$30	0x5b488a…
07-18 17:32:45	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	BUY	162	3¢	$5	0xbf69f6…
07-18 08:37:25	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	No	BUY	1,251	3¢	$34	0x39ba41…
07-18 08:27:13	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	No	BUY	2	3¢	$0	0x673eed…
07-18 08:20:58	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	No	BUY	333	3¢	$9	0x0e6f04…
07-18 08:20:00	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	No	BUY	215	3¢	$6	0x33e79d…
07-17 15:35:33	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	SELL	596	2¢	$14	0xfe474a…
07-17 15:35:09	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	SELL	4,167	2¢	$100	0x295d7c…
07-17 15:34:21	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	SELL	21,844	2¢	$524	0xc070ce…
07-17 15:34:21	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	SELL	2,500	2¢	$60	0x30dc77…
07-17 14:45:01	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	BUY	140	13¢	$18	0x54faca…
07-17 14:21:03	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	BUY	4,800	13¢	$624	0x646b91…
07-17 14:19:10	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	BUY	30	12¢	$4	0x7fc7c3…
07-17 14:18:43	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	BUY	75	12¢	$9	0x6bbd3d…
07-17 14:11:03	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	BUY	218	12¢	$26	0x2f8a92…
07-17 14:06:16	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	BUY	26	12¢	$3	0x2ac946…
07-17 13:47:39	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	BUY	32	12¢	$4	0x0c8a63…
07-17 13:44:25	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	BUY	143	12¢	$17	0x7a447f…
07-17 12:15:37	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	SELL	250	2¢	$6	0x7ef21c…
07-17 12:13:39	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	SELL	2,500	2¢	$60	0xc5779b…
07-17 12:13:39	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	SELL	3,800	2¢	$91	0x2dcb98…
07-17 12:13:00	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	SELL	10,000	2¢	$240	0x2dc4c3…
07-17 12:11:22	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	SELL	4,100	2¢	$98	0x208643…
07-17 11:40:24	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	SELL	579	2¢	$14	0x986ba7…
07-17 11:29:36	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	SELL	337	2¢	$8	0xb94b2c…
07-17 11:29:36	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	SELL	168	2¢	$4	0x573fa1…
07-17 11:29:24	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	SELL	6	2¢	$0	0xad96ef…
07-17 11:29:24	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x6c7dea…
07-17 11:29:21	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	SELL	100	2¢	$2	0x2481c3…
07-17 11:29:19	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x9ab630…
07-17 11:29:19	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	SELL	7,500	2¢	$180	0x97930e…
07-17 11:05:09	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0xdde669…
07-17 11:04:51	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	BUY	1,330	12¢	$160	0x7172bb…
07-17 10:47:31	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	SELL	240	2¢	$6	0xf561ca…
07-17 10:42:57	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	SELL	2,000	2¢	$50	0xb68658…
07-17 10:25:10	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	SELL	4,269	2¢	$107	0x3c1601…
07-17 10:15:13	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	SELL	37	3¢	$1	0x34724d…
07-17 10:15:12	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	SELL	37	3¢	$1	0xd3a093…
07-17 10:13:12	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	SELL	37	3¢	$1	0xaa8136…
07-17 10:13:09	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	SELL	37	3¢	$1	0x32ad59…
07-14 16:33:46	spy up or down on july 14 2026	Down	SELL	879	22¢	$190	0x2d3b11…
07-14 11:25:26	spy up or down on july 14 2026	Down	BUY	80	45¢	$36	0x459191…
07-14 11:25:26	spy up or down on july 14 2026	Down	BUY	200	45¢	$90	0x22c362…
07-14 10:38:11	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163	Yes	SELL	233	12¢	$28	0x03ed61…
07-14 10:38:07	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	Yes	SELL	2,400	4¢	$94	0xc28a15…
07-14 09:16:05	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0xc16384…
07-14 09:08:55	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	SELL	19	2¢	$0	0x1bec68…
07-14 09:05:37	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	SELL	217	2¢	$5	0xc585fa…
07-14 08:14:23	spy up or down on july 14 2026	Down	BUY	99	49¢	$48	0x2dd6d7…
07-14 08:06:04	spy up or down on july 14 2026	Down	BUY	500	49¢	$245	0xbacb70…
07-14 06:25:44	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 spread home 1pt5	France	BUY	615	19¢	$120	0xfa13d5…
07-13 20:18:28	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0xf200c3…
07-13 20:18:19	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	2	11¢	$0	0xcca9c0…
07-13 20:18:19	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	2	11¢	$0	0x0bbedd…
07-13 20:18:17	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	2	11¢	$0	0x982a1d…