Unnatural-Reputation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$15.5K

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

82.8%

Resolved

625

Trades

4,159

lifetime

Volume

$574.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$138

Open exposure

$23

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 11-01 17:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 187 days

Categories

Other

79% 73% +$10,949

Politics

13% 63% +$1,942

Crypto

6% 86% +$2,670

Tech

2% 67% +$168

Sports

0% 50% -$196

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

51 active days in 12wk • peak 47 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes		+100	$15	16¢	$16	+$1	11-01 17:15
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes		+105	$7	7¢	$7	$0	11-01 17:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets february 13 february 20 340 359	2	$23.6K	11,990	11,990	+0	No	+$386	02-20 16:25
us strikes iran by february 18 2026	2	$22.0K	11,206	11,206	+0	No	+$12	02-18 20:37
elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 280 299	29	$19.2K	9,687	9,687	+0	No	+$196	02-17 16:32
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 380 399	31	$18.7K	9,940	10,441	-500	No	+$972	02-10 16:25
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	45	$16.6K	9,644	9,644	+0	Yes	+$1,722	06-16 20:02
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 16:15 UTC	2	$14.3K	7,818	7,783	+35	Down	+$1,170	02-03 16:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-02 01:00 UTC	2	$11.9K	6,265	6,256	+9	Down	+$467	02-02 01:11
elon musk of tweets january 29 january 31 140 164	5	$11.2K	6,068	6,068	+0	No	+$234	01-31 15:51
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	2	$11.0K	6,605	6,605	+0	Yes	+$1,010	06-25 21:53
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026?	9	$10.6K	10,850	310	+10,541	No	-$13	04-30 15:49
elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 440 459	2	$10.5K	5,527	5,527	+0	No	+$521	02-13 14:09
elon musk of tweets january 23 january 30 400 419	5	$10.3K	5,301	5,401	-100	No	+$306	01-30 16:38
elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 380 399	15	$9.9K	4,013	7,279	-3,266	No	-$164	01-22 19:52
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	3	$9.8K	5,437	5,437	+0	Yes	+$167	06-12 17:32
elon musk of tweets january 20 january 27 420 439	30	$9.1K	6,568	6,568	+0	No	+$284	01-27 16:41
elon musk of tweets january 22 january 24 115 139	4	$8.1K	4,256	4,256	+0	No	+$91	01-24 07:54
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	4	$7.9K	7,889	0	+7,889	No	+$10	05-19 14:12
elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 440 459	2	$7.8K	4,169	4,169	+0	No	+$284	01-23 04:12
elon musk of tweets february 5 february 7 65 89	41	$7.1K	6,292	4,092	+2,200	No	+$662	02-07 15:14
elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 420 439	7	$7.1K	3,760	3,760	+0	No	+$369	01-23 02:44
elon musk of tweets february 21 february 23 115 139	25	$6.7K	3,475	4,476	-1,001	No	+$145	02-23 03:18
elon musk of tweets january 19 january 21 115 139	8	$6.7K	3,703	3,703	+0	No	+$288	01-21 15:59
elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 400 419	3	$6.6K	3,353	3,353	+0	No	+$102	01-23 00:57
elon musk of tweets february 20 february 27 340 359	30	$6.1K	8,211	8,211	+0	No	-$18	02-27 15:47
elon musk of tweets february 13 february 20 320 339	2	$6.1K	3,328	3,328	+0	No	+$93	02-19 07:52
elon musk of tweets march 7 march 9 90 114	29	$5.4K	627	6,132	-5,505	Yes	-$340	03-09 20:52
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 400 419	7	$5.0K	12,640	2,454	+10,185	No	+$11	03-20 00:59
elon musk of tweets april 2 april 4 240plus	2	$5.0K	10,273	0	+10,273	No	$0	04-03 16:49
elon musk of tweets march 7 march 9 240plus	2	$5.0K	10,010	0	+10,010	No	+$0	03-08 23:08
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	1	$5.0K	5,005	0	+5,005	No	+$5	04-22 17:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 17:16:07	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	105	7¢	$7	0x5f5e8d…
11-01 17:15:19	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0xfda7f1…
10-31 23:57:16	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	28	54¢	$15	0x9a84eb…
10-31 23:51:01	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	No	SELL	36	42¢	$15	0x2c7654…
10-31 22:34:54	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	No	BUY	36	42¢	$15	0xd24d95…
10-31 10:04:30	Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?	No	SELL	45	37¢	$17	0x4b7e0f…
10-29 17:13:08	Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?	No	BUY	27	22¢	$6	0xc42a5d…
10-29 13:25:23	Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?	No	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0xabd983…
10-29 12:47:16	Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?	No	BUY	76	22¢	$17	0x9008fb…
10-29 07:37:08	Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?	No	BUY	7	22¢	$2	0xe05b56…
10-29 00:32:19	Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?	No	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0xbf57c7…
10-28 08:15:55	Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?	No	SELL	10	37¢	$4	0xc65881…
10-27 16:05:23	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	No	SELL	5	43¢	$2	0x01e549…
10-27 15:56:02	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x5713fa…
10-27 15:25:27	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0xd7da9f…
10-27 15:10:54	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x51d4ef…
10-26 22:43:00	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	4¢	$4	0x0f8be0…
10-26 21:38:50	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0x1b48eb…
10-26 19:06:27	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	75	8¢	$6	0x5824af…
10-26 19:05:03	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	8¢	$2	0xab4943…
10-26 18:56:35	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	105	8¢	$8	0xd1dd56…
10-23 16:52:18	Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?	No	SELL	15	37¢	$6	0x61fc56…
10-23 11:23:30	Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?	No	SELL	10	37¢	$4	0x9a8d46…
10-22 20:08:48	Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?	No	SELL	82	37¢	$30	0xba47ab…
10-21 22:37:08	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	16¢	$1	0x54ecb4…
10-21 22:36:53	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	16¢	$1	0x4ad12d…
10-21 22:36:38	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	16¢	$1	0xf6b833…
10-21 22:36:23	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0x29f480…
10-21 22:36:08	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	16¢	$1	0x75a13b…
10-21 22:35:53	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0x303e88…
10-21 22:35:38	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	16¢	$1	0xdd9c55…
10-21 22:35:23	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	16¢	$1	0x9ae76e…
10-21 22:35:08	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0xc04e83…
10-21 22:33:23	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	16¢	$1	0x5e163d…
10-21 22:33:08	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	16¢	$1	0x24e030…
10-21 22:32:53	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	16¢	$1	0xc295a1…
10-21 22:32:38	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	16¢	$1	0x92ab22…
10-21 22:32:23	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	16¢	$1	0x87842c…
10-21 22:32:08	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	16¢	$1	0x8b3b06…
10-21 22:31:54	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	16¢	$1	0x166e77…
10-21 22:31:38	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	16¢	$1	0x4eaa2e…
10-21 22:31:23	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	16¢	$1	0x258409…
10-21 22:31:17	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	16¢	$2	0x68ca9e…
10-21 22:31:08	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	16¢	$1	0x45d088…
10-21 22:18:59	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	217	16¢	$35	0xed1dfc…
10-21 22:18:59	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	101	16¢	$16	0x7872c1…
10-21 22:05:42	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	262	16¢	$42	0xb9ea64…
10-21 21:53:15	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	16¢	$5	0xa0bd05…
10-21 21:06:47	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	250	17¢	$42	0xa9d206…
10-21 20:52:05	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	4¢	$40	0x030751…
10-21 20:48:54	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	70	27¢	$19	0xf4b8df…
10-21 19:05:57	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	66	16¢	$11	0x993530…
10-21 19:05:57	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	90	16¢	$14	0x72917b…
10-21 19:05:57	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	16¢	$6	0x39e8c1…
10-21 19:05:47	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	753	16¢	$120	0x841ad5…
10-21 19:01:30	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0xcd71ba…
10-21 19:01:30	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x5a5b7e…
10-21 19:01:26	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x091655…
10-21 18:59:08	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0x1b1893…
10-21 18:58:08	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0xacd319…
10-21 18:57:09	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0xbc30c8…
10-21 18:57:09	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0x7e29bc…
10-21 18:57:08	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0x051b87…
10-21 18:56:08	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x9dd327…
10-21 18:52:32	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	25¢	$0	0x778d72…
10-21 18:48:18	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xf95ab7…
10-21 18:48:18	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0xe0c94b…
10-21 18:48:08	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	960	3¢	$29	0x67d139…
10-21 18:47:59	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	25¢	$4	0xf59ff7…
10-21 18:47:59	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0x1812a9…
10-21 18:47:59	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x0393e2…
10-20 20:54:44	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-20?	Yes	SELL	135	100¢	$135	0x8ab893…
10-20 20:45:35	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-20?	Yes	BUY	135	74¢	$100	0x870c22…
10-20 00:29:27	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	267	50¢	$133	0xd29f20…
10-19 15:57:15	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	6¢	$0	0x6c2056…
10-19 15:53:21	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	908	6¢	$54	0x5616ee…
10-19 15:26:42	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	112	12¢	$14	0x551517…
10-19 15:26:32	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	155	12¢	$18	0xc0da35…
10-17 19:49:18	Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?	No	BUY	25	29¢	$7	0xc8cf68…
10-17 18:27:00	Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?	No	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x719946…
10-17 14:09:11	Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?	No	BUY	206	27¢	$56	0x7ef89b…
10-17 13:36:03	Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?	No	BUY	144	32¢	$46	0xf143bc…
10-17 12:37:02	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	127	37¢	$47	0x290a42…
10-17 12:36:32	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	37¢	$6	0x285000…
10-17 12:36:23	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	37¢	$5	0x84fd18…
10-17 12:02:50	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x8a35d8…
10-17 12:02:47	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	15¢	$22	0x658a2a…
10-17 12:02:00	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	12¢	$0	0x5a4cfb…
10-17 09:52:39	Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?	No	BUY	8	32¢	$3	0x7b96a2…
10-17 04:10:48	Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	63¢	$2	0xb8a88b…
10-17 00:56:24	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	846	0¢	$1	0x947b52…
10-17 00:01:29	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	499	0¢	$0	0xde3357…
10-16 21:57:20	Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	84	63¢	$53	0x72f2cd…
10-16 21:57:20	Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	313	63¢	$197	0x1f61df…
10-16 21:56:23	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	319	2¢	$5	0xc8c8ce…
10-16 21:56:03	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	128	2¢	$2	0xb05c03…
10-16 21:56:03	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	223	2¢	$3	0x5f2003…
10-16 21:50:44	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	342	2¢	$6	0x4b502b…
10-16 21:49:59	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	133	2¢	$2	0x994f5e…
10-16 21:05:51	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x16f4ff…