Round-Information — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$336

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

52.7%

Resolved

1,253

Trades

1,783

lifetime

Volume

$14.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$68

4 positions

First seen

2026-02-22

last 10-07 21:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 62 days

Categories

Crypto

76% 59% +$424

Other

19% 60% -$56

Politics

3% 20% -$21

Tech

2% 0% -$12

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 128 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	No	+41	$30	74¢	$31	+$1	10-07 21:39
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+29	$21	99¢	$28	+$8	10-07 18:58
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	-9	-$6	92¢	$-8	-$2	04-29 01:08
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?	No	+29	$7	1¢	$0	-$7	10-07 19:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	13	$300	303	303	+0	open	—	10-07 21:40
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?	6	$275	250	250	+0	open	—	10-03 22:11
Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026?	9	$273	300	300	+0	Yes	-$12	10-07 02:24
Will "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 32m and 34m?	16	$220	234	233	+1	Yes	-$7	10-03 19:58
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	6	$117	141	141	+0	No	-$9	10-07 16:54
Will "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and 32m?	10	$108	126	126	+0	No	-$10	10-03 19:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	3	$97	0	200	-200	Up	-$3	06-14 00:20
Will "Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	6	$94	88	88	+0	Yes	-$3	10-03 19:58
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	2	$84	60	60	+0	No	+$0	10-07 00:41
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	4	$79	90	90	+0	open	—	10-07 18:02
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-11 04:35 UTC	25	$66	170	10	+160	Up	-$32	06-11 04:37
Will "Heart of the Beast" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 13m?	4	$64	46	46	+0	No	-$8	10-03 19:58
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-12 03:05 UTC	8	$62	50	50	+0	Up	+$25	06-12 03:10
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NV-01 House election by 10%-15%?	2	$59	40	40	+0	open	—	10-07 00:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-09 02:05 UTC	8	$57	100	38	+62	Up	-$10	04-09 02:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	2	$57	0	112	-112	Down	+$45	06-14 00:27
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 0%-4%?	2	$51	40	40	+0	open	—	10-05 01:12
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-09 03:15 UTC	6	$48	1,085	25	+1,060	Down	-$18	04-09 03:20
Will "The Widower: 'Til Death Do Us Part" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?	3	$47	30	30	+1	Yes	+$9	10-03 19:09
Will "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 17m?	2	$45	28	28	+0	Yes	+$12	10-03 19:07
Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	2	$44	60	60	+0	open	—	10-07 00:21
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	2	$43	50	9	+41	open	—	10-07 21:39
Will "Verity" score at least 46 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	2	$42	23	22	+0	No	+$3	10-03 19:07
Will "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 11m?	2	$41	23	23	+0	No	+$3	10-03 19:07
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?	3	$41	40	40	+0	No	+$0	10-07 18:00
Will "Unabomber" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	3	$41	24	24	+0	Yes	+$3	10-03 19:07
Will "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 9m?	2	$40	23	22	+1	Yes	+$3	10-03 19:07
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-01 18:10 UTC	2	$39	91	86	+5	Up	-$1	04-01 18:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 03:20 UTC	4	$39	40	38	+2	Down	$0	04-10 03:20
Will "The Widower: 'Til Death Do Us Part" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?	2	$38	29	29	+0	Yes	+$0	10-03 19:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-07 21:40:40	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	70¢	$35	0x271c6f…
10-07 21:39:46	Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	9	74¢	$7	0x827fd8…
10-07 21:39:43	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	73¢	$36	0x81d8a5…
10-07 21:39:36	Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	73¢	$36	0x72a091…
10-07 19:43:42	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	12	24¢	$3	0x6eef64…
10-07 19:06:43	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	26¢	$2	0xb68425…
10-07 18:58:34	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	72¢	$21	0x5e3d24…
10-07 18:58:16	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	25¢	$12	0xa04032…
10-07 18:02:48	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	40	44¢	$18	0x5530fc…
10-07 18:01:52	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	40	48¢	$19	0x4e23db…
10-07 18:00:07	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	51¢	$20	0xa9404e…
10-07 17:44:58	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x55eaaf…
10-07 17:44:57	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xd98979…
10-07 16:54:37	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	No	SELL	41	26¢	$11	0xc2d58a…
10-07 16:39:26	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	41	26¢	$11	0xd01459…
10-07 16:19:01	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	No	SELL	50	26¢	$13	0x03fbde…
10-07 16:11:37	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	50	32¢	$16	0xbb8cb6…
10-07 14:03:37	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas Attorney General election?	No	SELL	9	43¢	$4	0x2a888b…
10-07 13:50:46	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas Attorney General election?	No	BUY	9	42¢	$4	0x87b4de…
10-07 13:34:43	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	Yes	SELL	50	24¢	$12	0x9789a5…
10-07 13:26:47	Will 100 Thieves win VALORANT Champions 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	28¢	$14	0x69ba69…
10-07 13:26:08	Will 100 Thieves win VALORANT Champions 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	32¢	$16	0x62daf2…
10-07 12:49:22	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	Yes	BUY	50	26¢	$13	0x819320…
10-07 09:14:39	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	No	SELL	50	23¢	$12	0xac6942…
10-07 09:14:17	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	No	BUY	50	27¢	$14	0xa0a67c…
10-07 02:24:15	Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026?	No	SELL	50	30¢	$15	0x366a57…
10-07 02:13:08	Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x9ad728…
10-07 01:31:23	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	73¢	$2	0x5e3131…
10-07 00:41:32	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	SELL	60	70¢	$42	0xd39c0b…
10-07 00:21:09	Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	60	36¢	$22	0xe93b0d…
10-07 00:20:47	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	50	44¢	$22	0x3714ca…
10-07 00:19:02	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NV-01 House election by 10%-15%?	No	SELL	40	71¢	$28	0xf78242…
10-07 00:03:48	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	60¢	$30	0xe3926f…
10-06 22:33:36	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	73¢	$36	0x792b0a…
10-06 19:53:14	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	50	41¢	$20	0x9170e0…
10-06 19:52:54	Democratic Senate odds >66% on October 9?	Yes	SELL	40	22¢	$9	0x87ceaf…
10-06 19:52:53	Will the Labour candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 15% or more?	Yes	SELL	50	37¢	$18	0x29ec03…
10-06 13:22:16	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	BUY	60	70¢	$42	0x9c81a3…
10-06 12:13:51	Democratic Senate odds >66% on October 9?	Yes	BUY	12	35¢	$4	0xf917f8…
10-06 12:13:51	Democratic Senate odds >66% on October 9?	Yes	BUY	28	35¢	$10	0x64b82c…
10-06 09:21:10	Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	60	37¢	$22	0x326842…
10-05 23:05:55	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NV-01 House election by 10%-15%?	No	BUY	40	77¢	$31	0x138eb5…
10-05 16:23:22	Will the Labour candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 15% or more?	Yes	BUY	50	33¢	$16	0x1c0304…
10-05 06:16:13	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	No	SELL	100	61¢	$61	0x2f0d96…
10-05 06:16:11	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	37¢	$37	0x798bfe…
10-05 06:14:50	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	37¢	$18	0xbba4ce…
10-05 04:33:46	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	37¢	$2	0x31d458…
10-05 04:01:38	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x342a7b…
10-05 03:45:50	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	No	BUY	50	64¢	$32	0x3b9e39…
10-05 03:32:07	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	No	BUY	50	66¢	$33	0xac61dc…
10-05 01:12:14	will ewy dip to 182 in october 2026 from october 1	Yes	SELL	6	61¢	$4	0x40b603…
10-05 01:12:13	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MN-06 House election by 10%-15%?	Yes	SELL	9	21¢	$2	0x38bbbf…
10-05 01:12:11	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 0%-4%?	No	SELL	40	56¢	$22	0xe3e56c…
10-04 21:47:58	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 0%-4%?	No	BUY	40	71¢	$28	0xffc606…
10-04 20:49:41	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $182 in October?	Yes	BUY	6	58¢	$3	0x0cb526…
10-04 19:09:55	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MN-06 House election by 10%-15%?	Yes	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0xa30a2a…
10-04 17:06:43	Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026?	No	SELL	100	66¢	$66	0xcd8231…
10-04 17:06:43	Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	150	33¢	$50	0x53bb68…
10-04 17:06:40	Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in October 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	26¢	$13	0x4bd307…
10-04 17:06:35	Will there be between 20 and 24 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	Yes	SELL	25	23¢	$6	0x2f14d1…
10-04 15:00:55	Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	33¢	$16	0xbc148e…
10-04 14:19:10	Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	50	63¢	$32	0x2bc2ff…
10-04 14:16:29	Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	50	68¢	$34	0x349baa…
10-04 11:25:43	Will there be between 20 and 24 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xa98bc1…
10-04 11:25:43	Will there be between 20 and 24 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	Yes	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0x40d955…
10-04 10:59:20	Will there be between 20 and 24 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	Yes	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0x3735d3…
10-04 02:26:50	Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	26¢	$13	0x0d80c8…
10-03 22:11:32	Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?	No	SELL	250	52¢	$129	0xd1341f…
10-03 20:48:08	Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?	No	BUY	50	58¢	$29	0xc846a6…
10-03 20:47:20	Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?	No	BUY	50	59¢	$30	0xdd8b86…
10-03 20:47:20	Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?	No	BUY	50	58¢	$29	0x31f49e…
10-03 19:58:32	Will the #1 global Netflix movie have between 20 and 24 million views this week?	No	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0xe46a17…
10-03 19:58:32	Will the #1 global Netflix movie have between 24 and 28 million views this week?	No	SELL	12	18¢	$2	0xd929d1…
10-03 19:58:31	Will "Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	No	SELL	27	45¢	$12	0xe673f3…
10-03 19:58:29	Will "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 32m and 34m?	No	SELL	82	37¢	$31	0x6b66d6…
10-03 19:58:25	Will "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and 32m?	No	SELL	4	71¢	$3	0x5b2dce…
10-03 19:58:23	Will "Heart of the Beast" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 11m?	Yes	SELL	18	17¢	$3	0x8924e2…
10-03 19:58:22	Will "Resident Evil" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m?	Yes	SELL	18	19¢	$4	0xa06b8a…
10-03 19:58:20	Will "Resident Evil" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m?	No	SELL	22	26¢	$6	0x323b2c…
10-03 19:58:19	Will the #1 global Netflix movie have between 20 and 24 million views this week?	No	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0x6adf20…
10-03 19:58:17	Will "Heart of the Beast" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 13m?	Yes	SELL	31	78¢	$24	0x7e1e2d…
10-03 19:58:16	Will the #1 global Netflix movie have between 24 and 28 million views this week?	No	SELL	20	57¢	$11	0xceb6c2…
10-03 19:58:14	Will the #1 global Netflix movie have less than 16 million views this week?	Yes	SELL	31	1¢	$0	0x20281e…
10-03 19:58:13	Will the #1 global Netflix show have between 15 and 18 million views this week?	Yes	SELL	31	1¢	$0	0x8caba3…
10-03 19:58:11	Will "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 32m and 34m?	Yes	SELL	62	59¢	$37	0x649864…
10-03 19:58:10	Will "Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	No	SELL	61	54¢	$33	0xeccd87…
10-03 19:58:10	Will "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and 32m?	Yes	SELL	80	23¢	$19	0x95ae87…
10-03 19:58:07	Will "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 32m and 34m?	No	SELL	56	38¢	$21	0xd51cc7…
10-03 19:56:41	Will "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 32m and 34m?	Yes	SELL	21	57¢	$12	0x72c636…
10-03 19:56:40	Will "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and 32m?	No	SELL	31	70¢	$22	0x46949d…
10-03 19:53:32	Will "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and 32m?	No	BUY	34	72¢	$24	0x83ad40…
10-03 19:47:10	Will "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and 32m?	Yes	BUY	3	26¢	$1	0xdd6c60…
10-03 19:45:47	Will "Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	No	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x75895b…
10-03 19:45:28	Will "Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	No	BUY	26	55¢	$15	0xa9ad38…
10-03 19:44:25	Will "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 32m and 34m?	No	BUY	46	44¢	$20	0x88cda8…
10-03 19:43:07	Will "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 32m and 34m?	No	BUY	27	45¢	$12	0x5b9a61…
10-03 19:42:45	Will "Resident Evil" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m?	No	BUY	21	27¢	$6	0x2b2e24…
10-03 19:42:39	Will "Resident Evil" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m?	Yes	BUY	19	20¢	$4	0x6c03ca…
10-03 19:41:55	Will "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 32m and 34m?	Yes	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0xbd993e…
10-03 19:41:46	Will "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 32m and 34m?	Yes	BUY	14	53¢	$7	0x83746d…