Drafty-Doctrine — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$10

Unrealized P&L

+$18

Hit rate

58.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,014

lifetime

Volume

$57.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$57

Open exposure

$52

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-29 21:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

61% 67% +$12

Politics

22% 33% +$18

Sports

16% 50% $-5

Crypto

1% 0% $-15

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

62 active days in 12wk • peak 22 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Alcaraz or Sinner win more Grand Slams in 2026?	Sinner		+100	$35	52¢	$52	+$18	06-20 21:40

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will trump say maga or make america great again this week december 29 january 4	26	$2.7K	2,964	3,203	-239	open	—	01-03 21:57
Will Liam Rosenior be the next Chelsea manager?	10	$1.9K	988	988	+0	open	—	01-06 10:46
starmer out by july 31 2026	2	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	06-21 21:43
will khamenei tweet again on march 16 2026 714 288	14	$1.8K	1,049	1,049	+0	open	—	03-16 16:50
Will Darren Fletcher be appointed as manager of Manchester United?	11	$1.8K	1,279	563	+716	open	—	04-21 01:38
will the next uk prime minister be appointed by july 31 20260622183223872	4	$1.4K	761	761	+0	open	—	06-25 19:59
dan burn 20260609175104693	4	$1.4K	701	701	+0	open	—	06-17 21:44
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	2	$1.3K	1,285	0	+1,285	open	—	05-27 07:26
No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?	1	$1.1K	1,105	0	+1,105	open	—	06-22 08:25
will the announcers say visa during the switzerland vs canada fifa world cup match 20260623164646388	1	$1.0K	1,073	0	+1,073	open	—	06-24 13:15
Starmer out by March 31, 2026?	3	$998	505	505	+0	open	—	03-30 20:34
will khamenei tweet again by march 10	10	$956	529	529	+0	open	—	03-06 14:07
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United?	15	$953	1,013	971	+41	open	—	02-27 16:29
will paraguay reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120749	6	$924	553	553	+0	open	—	06-29 21:03
james trafford 20260609175104701	3	$911	463	463	+0	open	—	06-17 21:44
will the announcers say visa during the portugal vs uzbekistan fifa world cup match 20260622180548670	4	$859	445	445	+0	open	—	06-23 17:54
will france be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003080	3	$785	408	408	+0	open	—	06-23 00:44
Will Malta be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	10	$754	447	447	+0	open	—	05-15 06:09
Will Dominic Solanke be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	4	$737	400	400	+0	open	—	06-01 19:44
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Viktor Orbán by June 30, 2026?	2	$701	354	400	-46	open	—	05-30 19:01
Will Ukraine advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	1	$698	713	0	+713	open	—	05-13 18:20
will khamenei tweet again on march 13 2026 858	6	$692	427	427	+0	open	—	03-12 14:02
will carlos baleba sign with a new club during the winter transfer window	1	$683	707	0	+707	open	—	02-01 10:13
will joe biden be named in newly released epstein files by february 28	2	$661	341	341	+0	open	—	02-26 15:28
will marc andr ter stegen sign with a new club during the winter transfer window 642 388 625 738 374	4	$625	655	0	+655	open	—	01-19 16:35
will cape verde reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120766	6	$624	678	0	+678	open	—	06-25 20:31
Will Eberechi Eze be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	4	$599	345	345	+0	open	—	05-21 19:18
will trump say fat during the signing ceremony on wednesday	5	$561	410	410	+0	open	—	01-14 21:10
will kobbie mainoo sign with a new club during the winter transfer window 764	3	$559	633	0	+633	open	—	02-01 10:08
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$557	403	403	+0	open	—	06-15 07:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-29 21:03:22	will paraguay reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120749	No	SELL	448	85¢	$381	0xc055ff…
06-29 20:52:11	will paraguay reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120749	No	SELL	60	85¢	$51	0xd2ab45…
06-29 20:51:40	will paraguay reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120749	No	SELL	20	85¢	$17	0xf30706…
06-29 20:51:35	will paraguay reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120749	No	SELL	20	86¢	$17	0x810331…
06-29 20:50:47	will paraguay reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120749	No	SELL	5	87¢	$4	0x6e5091…
06-29 12:38:01	will bitcoin reach 64k june 29 july 5 2026	Yes	BUY	19	30¢	$6	0xe2ba27…
06-29 12:35:25	will bitcoin reach 64k june 29 july 5 2026	Yes	BUY	83	30¢	$25	0x94455d…
06-29 12:28:53	atp zheng norrie 2026 06 29	Cameron Norrie	SELL	66	66¢	$44	0x5e553f…
06-29 08:34:56	atp zheng norrie 2026 06 29	Cameron Norrie	BUY	19	62¢	$12	0xa17539…
06-29 08:32:08	atp zheng norrie 2026 06 29	Cameron Norrie	BUY	14	62¢	$9	0xc7f790…
06-29 08:28:34	atp zheng norrie 2026 06 29	Cameron Norrie	BUY	33	62¢	$20	0xa8dc8e…
06-29 08:02:43	will trump speak to xi jinping in july 20260626154217426	Yes	BUY	19	6¢	$1	0x9eb4dc…
06-27 21:57:25	will the announcers say hydration break 5 times during the colombia vs portugal fifa world cup match 20260625200716810	No	BUY	100	66¢	$66	0x2b6617…
06-27 21:57:10	will the announcers say hydration break 5 times during the colombia vs portugal fifa world cup match 20260625200716810	No	BUY	62	65¢	$41	0x58dd04…
06-27 21:57:04	will the announcers say hydration break 5 times during the colombia vs portugal fifa world cup match 20260625200716810	No	BUY	16	59¢	$10	0x6564fa…
06-27 12:40:32	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0x2bc07f…
06-27 06:51:49	will paraguay reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120749	No	BUY	553	82¢	$453	0x92a979…
06-27 06:49:53	will the announcers say foul 7 times during the uruguay vs spain fifa world cup match 20260625155523343	Yes	SELL	11	51¢	$6	0xb1ccb9…
06-26 20:58:46	will the announcers say hydration break 5 times during the new zealand vs belgium fifa world cup match 20260625155700884	No	BUY	7	68¢	$4	0x4ea7b9…
06-26 20:58:41	will the announcers say hydration break 5 times during the new zealand vs belgium fifa world cup match 20260625155700884	No	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0xd2b4ff…
06-26 20:58:38	will the announcers say hydration break 5 times during the new zealand vs belgium fifa world cup match 20260625155700884	No	BUY	8	68¢	$5	0x5a7c05…
06-26 20:53:35	will the announcers say hydration break 5 times during the new zealand vs belgium fifa world cup match 20260625155700884	No	BUY	52	68¢	$35	0x070a25…
06-26 20:53:29	will the announcers say hydration break 5 times during the new zealand vs belgium fifa world cup match 20260625155700884	No	BUY	50	67¢	$34	0xfebbd5…
06-26 15:27:29	will the announcers say captain during the norway vs france fifa world cup match 20260625155250625	Yes	BUY	204	83¢	$169	0x65ac63…
06-26 08:41:10	will the announcers say foul 7 times during the uruguay vs spain fifa world cup match 20260625155523343	Yes	BUY	11	58¢	$7	0x372a86…
06-25 21:45:05	will the announcers say captain during the ecuador vs germany fifa world cup match 20260623170859852	Yes	SELL	260	100¢	$260	0xfd7acb…
06-25 20:31:52	will cape verde reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120766	No	BUY	141	93¢	$131	0x11cf7f…
06-25 20:31:47	will cape verde reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120766	No	BUY	111	92¢	$103	0x6358f0…
06-25 20:31:44	will cape verde reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120766	No	BUY	127	92¢	$117	0x852c17…
06-25 20:31:40	will cape verde reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120766	No	BUY	111	92¢	$102	0xa909eb…
06-25 20:31:35	will cape verde reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120766	No	BUY	77	91¢	$70	0xb5c305…
06-25 20:31:31	will cape verde reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120766	No	BUY	111	91¢	$101	0xe33cef…
06-25 19:59:37	will the next uk prime minister be appointed by july 31 20260622183223872	Yes	SELL	761	95¢	$721	0x54f661…
06-25 19:47:26	will the announcers say captain during the ecuador vs germany fifa world cup match 20260623170859852	Yes	BUY	230	73¢	$168	0x0b7205…
06-25 19:47:20	will the announcers say captain during the ecuador vs germany fifa world cup match 20260623170859852	Yes	BUY	30	71¢	$21	0x80b385…
06-24 19:04:34	will the announcers say hattrick or hat trick during the switzerland vs canada fifa world cup match 20260623164646404	No	BUY	47	40¢	$19	0x7b01f9…
06-24 19:04:23	will the announcers say hattrick or hat trick during the switzerland vs canada fifa world cup match 20260623164646404	No	BUY	97	40¢	$39	0xb2ebea…
06-24 13:15:59	will the announcers say visa during the switzerland vs canada fifa world cup match 20260623164646388	Yes	BUY	1,073	96¢	$1,030	0x0fdb63…
06-24 11:54:25	will the next uk prime minister be appointed by july 31 20260622183223872	Yes	BUY	60	92¢	$55	0x6a09b1…
06-24 11:54:19	will the next uk prime minister be appointed by july 31 20260622183223872	Yes	BUY	316	92¢	$290	0xf81fa4…
06-24 11:34:41	will starmer say social media during the next pmq	Yes	SELL	403	100¢	$402	0x0401b9…
06-24 11:29:49	will starmer say mrpt speaker 20 times during the next pmq 20260610160650629	Yes	SELL	10	50¢	$5	0x69ec8c…
06-24 11:29:46	will starmer say mrpt speaker 20 times during the next pmq 20260610160650629	Yes	SELL	5	51¢	$3	0xec8ef0…
06-24 11:29:41	will starmer say mrpt speaker 20 times during the next pmq 20260610160650629	Yes	SELL	5	51¢	$3	0x2600c0…
06-24 11:29:38	will starmer say mrpt speaker 20 times during the next pmq 20260610160650629	Yes	SELL	8	51¢	$4	0x9f9d95…
06-24 11:29:32	will starmer say mrpt speaker 20 times during the next pmq 20260610160650629	Yes	SELL	15	52¢	$8	0xffcae1…
06-24 11:29:22	will starmer say mrpt speaker 20 times during the next pmq 20260610160650629	Yes	SELL	8	54¢	$4	0x7b25f9…
06-24 11:29:19	will starmer say mrpt speaker 20 times during the next pmq 20260610160650629	Yes	SELL	8	53¢	$4	0x8500dc…
06-24 10:59:19	will starmer say europe during the next pmq 20260610160650642 886 186	Yes	SELL	7	10¢	$1	0x6cb8e5…
06-24 10:33:08	will starmer say europe during the next pmq 20260610160650642 886 186	Yes	SELL	20	65¢	$13	0xe80303…
06-23 19:55:08	will the next uk prime minister be appointed by july 31 20260622183223872	Yes	BUY	385	85¢	$327	0x689d75…
06-23 17:54:01	will the announcers say visa during the portugal vs uzbekistan fifa world cup match 20260622180548670	Yes	SELL	98	99¢	$97	0x68c3cd…
06-23 17:48:38	will the announcers say visa during the portugal vs uzbekistan fifa world cup match 20260622180548670	Yes	SELL	346	99¢	$343	0x61cf9e…
06-23 16:08:11	will the announcers say visa during the portugal vs uzbekistan fifa world cup match 20260622180548670	Yes	BUY	107	95¢	$102	0xf1d34e…
06-23 16:08:08	will the announcers say visa during the portugal vs uzbekistan fifa world cup match 20260622180548670	Yes	BUY	338	94¢	$317	0x914a98…
06-23 00:44:31	will france be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003080	No	SELL	342	100¢	$341	0x07b4c6…
06-23 00:15:25	will france be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003080	No	SELL	65	99¢	$65	0x72f79d…
06-22 09:28:08	will starmer say social media during the next pmq	Yes	BUY	403	30¢	$121	0xc52f8e…
06-22 09:27:41	will starmer say mrpt speaker 20 times during the next pmq 20260610160650629	Yes	BUY	425	30¢	$128	0x8f4197…
06-22 09:20:34	will starmer say mrpt speaker 20 times during the next pmq 20260610160650629	Yes	BUY	125	40¢	$50	0x9bf6c4…
06-22 08:45:38	will starmer say europe during the next pmq 20260610160650642 886 186	Yes	BUY	27	10¢	$3	0xff233d…
06-22 08:25:28	No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?	No	BUY	1,105	97¢	$1,072	0x7c2464…
06-21 21:43:44	starmer out by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	1,000	96¢	$956	0x08ff8e…
06-21 00:31:10	will starmer say thank 5 times during the next pmq 20260610160650631	No	SELL	95	55¢	$52	0x51d796…
06-20 22:53:04	will starmer say mrpt speaker 20 times during the next pmq 20260610160650629	No	SELL	28	55¢	$15	0x044b0c…
06-20 21:40:53	Will Alcaraz or Sinner win more Grand Slams in 2026?	Sinner	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0x317785…
06-20 21:01:35	starmer out by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1,000	96¢	$959	0xca5ee2…
06-20 21:00:16	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	150	5¢	$8	0x8149ce…
06-20 20:53:31	will starmer say mrpt speaker 20 times during the next pmq 20260610160650629	No	BUY	28	50¢	$14	0xdae06c…
06-20 20:51:41	will starmer say thank 5 times during the next pmq 20260610160650631	No	BUY	95	49¢	$47	0x3f437b…
06-19 16:26:26	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50	55¢	$28	0xc44517…
06-19 14:33:52	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	58¢	$58	0x4d885d…
06-17 21:44:41	ivan toney 20260609175104700	No	SELL	155	100¢	$155	0x35a8bb…
06-17 21:44:34	james trafford 20260609175104701	No	SELL	463	100¢	$462	0xad976e…
06-17 21:44:25	dan burn 20260609175104693	No	SELL	701	100¢	$700	0x007f13…
06-17 18:36:46	reece james 20260609175104702	Yes	SELL	99	99¢	$98	0xd7e9a5…
06-17 18:36:35	bukayo saka 20260609175104685	Yes	SELL	432	0¢	$1	0xea8364…
06-16 12:27:09	reece james 20260609175104702	Yes	BUY	99	96¢	$95	0x6abfe4…
06-15 14:23:22	nico oreilly 20260609175104681	Yes	SELL	114	95¢	$109	0x5700c1…
06-15 07:26:33	Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	403	68¢	$276	0xa133d4…
06-15 07:23:07	dan burn 20260609175104693	No	BUY	338	98¢	$331	0x2b0e5b…
06-15 07:23:04	dan burn 20260609175104693	No	BUY	172	97¢	$167	0x2b93f6…
06-15 07:23:00	dan burn 20260609175104693	No	BUY	191	96¢	$183	0xe1a497…
06-13 21:05:49	bruno guimaraes 20260609165807834	Yes	SELL	191	100¢	$191	0x4c73c4…
06-13 18:58:57	bukayo saka 20260609175104685	Yes	SELL	20	47¢	$9	0x84181d…
06-13 18:57:52	jordan pickford 20260609175104679	Yes	SELL	50	98¢	$49	0x536d3f…
06-13 18:57:42	manuel neuer 20260609173253869	Yes	SELL	120	97¢	$117	0x944c13…
06-13 18:57:13	noni madueke 20260609175104698	No	SELL	216	73¢	$156	0xdc5611…
06-13 15:27:10	ezri konsa 20260609175104680	Yes	SELL	104	80¢	$83	0x59f960…
06-13 15:26:22	ezri konsa 20260609175104680	Yes	SELL	52	80¢	$42	0xc9dc65…
06-12 21:09:01	bukayo saka 20260609175104685	Yes	BUY	120	83¢	$100	0x6de5cf…
06-12 21:04:18	noni madueke 20260609175104698	No	BUY	120	88¢	$105	0x9a4d8b…
06-12 20:24:25	ezri konsa 20260609175104680	Yes	SELL	47	80¢	$38	0x0f0b94…
06-12 19:08:57	will france be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003080	No	BUY	408	93¢	$379	0xf76dad…
06-12 15:44:33	ezri konsa 20260609175104680	Yes	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0xa204a1…
06-12 12:31:28	ivan toney 20260609175104700	No	BUY	155	95¢	$148	0x8db94d…
06-12 10:09:43	ezri konsa 20260609175104680	Yes	BUY	150	10¢	$15	0x21e22e…
06-12 09:16:33	nicolas tagliafico 20260609174518086	Yes	SELL	65	7¢	$4	0xcde7cb…
06-12 09:13:00	nicolas tagliafico 20260609174518086	Yes	SELL	196	9¢	$19	0x4a57bf…
06-12 09:04:28	nicolas tagliafico 20260609174518086	Yes	BUY	262	13¢	$35	0x6f41ed…