Scientific-Sophomore — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$34.4K

Unrealized P&L

+$1.46K

Hit rate

39.9%

Resolved

35,342

Trades

681,652

lifetime

Volume

$1.20M

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$3.63K

15 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-27 02:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 177 days

Categories

Other

97% 19% +$26,900

Sports

1% 100% +$7,487

Tech

1% 43% -$144

Politics

0% 50% +$155

Crypto

0% 100% +$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

64 active days in 12wk • peak 44 trades/day

Open positions (15) Resolved markets (13) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	No	+2,282	$854	80¢	$1.8K	+$972	10-26 17:28
Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	Yes	+1,000	$127	74¢	$740	+$613	10-20 13:57
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	-297	-$279	97¢	$-287	-$7	06-22 22:26
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?	No	-244	-$224	91¢	$-223	+$1	06-20 19:19
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?	No	-192	-$187	94¢	$-182	+$5	07-06 12:20
Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Yes	-158	-$59	60¢	$-96	-$37	06-27 19:03
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Yes	-190	-$32	37¢	$-70	-$39	06-25 00:29
Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?	Yes	-110	-$28	49¢	$-54	-$26	08-28 22:30
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?	No	-50	-$41	96¢	$-48	-$7	04-30 04:58
Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?	Yes	-116	-$82	27¢	$-31	+$51	08-08 00:19
5kt meteor strike in 2026?	Yes	-161	-$47	17¢	$-27	+$20	09-05 23:41
Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Yes	-329	-$4	6¢	$-19	-$15	06-23 17:30
us iran hormuz agreement by october 31	Yes	+358	$95	5¢	$16	-$79	09-29 13:31
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Yes	-36	-$12	18¢	$-6	+$5	06-21 15:24
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?	Yes	-75	-$7	4¢	$-3	+$4	08-27 19:18

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$17.5K	50,000	43,000	+7,000	Yes	+$7,487	07-11 16:02
AI data center in space by December 31, 2027?	9	$7.3K	5,465	3,860	+1,605	open	—	09-23 08:53
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between September 15 and September 30, 2026?	23	$5.7K	3,546	3,274	+271	No	+$353	09-18 08:55
Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?	11	$4.7K	4,020	1,015	+3,005	open	—	10-27 02:53
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	49	$4.7K	5,543	5,543	+0	open	—	10-19 09:57
Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	77	$4.3K	3,945	2,945	+1,000	open	—	10-20 13:57
Will the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	40	$3.4K	9,521	2,293	+7,228	open	—	10-20 10:59
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	25	$3.2K	3,891	1,609	+2,282	open	—	10-26 17:28
Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?	35	$2.3K	2,276	2,276	+0	open	—	10-09 09:37
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026?	2	$2.2K	2,442	0	+2,442	open	—	08-26 11:19
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?	20	$2.2K	2,161	242	+1,919	open	—	10-20 21:26
Will the Danube River return to normal levels between September 15 and September 30, 2026?	13	$1.8K	1,681	1,286	+395	No	+$130	09-20 09:36
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	6	$1.7K	1,236	1,236	+0	open	—	10-03 20:58
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	3	$1.4K	875	875	+0	No	+$8	09-15 01:15
Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft?	8	$1.3K	1,490	500	+990	open	—	10-19 21:13
Will there be between 5 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30?	10	$1.2K	2,321	1,011	+1,310	No	-$405	09-22 10:40
highest temperature in nyc on march 31 2026 74forhigher	139	$1.2K	1,187	1,029	+158	Yes	+$374	03-31 00:02
Will more than 575,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?	10	$1.1K	1,271	175	+1,096	open	—	10-06 15:15
Will the USS George H.W. Bush be in CENTCOM on October 31, 2026?	20	$1.1K	1,080	762	+317	open	—	10-13 23:02
highest temperature in shanghai on april 10 2026 19corhigher	30	$1.0K	579	488	+92	Yes	+$16	04-09 15:55
highest temperature in madrid on april 8 2026 14corhigher	70	$954	553	419	+134	Yes	+$9	04-07 21:57
Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.5 or 4,189.6 ft?	8	$904	1,692	1,667	+25	open	—	10-11 20:58
highest temperature in denver on april 8 2026 56forhigher	26	$888	585	345	+240	Yes	+$14	04-08 03:10
Plague case in US by December 31?	6	$877	489	489	-0	open	—	10-20 11:03
Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement by December 31, 2026?	6	$848	1,003	0	+1,003	open	—	10-26 16:37
highest temperature in ankara on april 4 2026 12corhigher	47	$843	612	322	+290	Yes	+$67	04-03 19:54
highest temperature in london on april 8 2026 24corhigher	47	$833	652	530	+122	Yes	+$70	04-07 22:30
Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 31, 2026?	7	$825	500	500	+0	open	—	10-06 14:49
will gpt 6 be released by march 31 2026	31	$810	612	829	-217	No	+$38	02-20 14:57
highest temperature in lucknow on march 20 2026 32corbelow	45	$808	519	321	+199	Yes	+$17	03-19 16:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 02:53:21	Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	16	93¢	$15	0x75e656…
10-26 21:56:29	Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	335	93¢	$311	0xe498c4…
10-26 21:52:20	Will the lowest Baton Rouge river level be 6.00 ft or more by November 30?	Yes	BUY	105	24¢	$25	0xa27d1c…
10-26 17:28:14	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	87¢	$87	0x55f3c7…
10-26 16:37:20	Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	37	87¢	$32	0xf67739…
10-26 14:21:45	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	86¢	$86	0x55244e…
10-26 11:01:23	Will more than 585,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x313a53…
10-26 10:59:15	Will more than 585,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x62f26e…
10-25 11:47:44	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	Yes	BUY	100	77¢	$77	0xd8d1b5…
10-25 06:17:54	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	Yes	SELL	0	71¢	$0	0x59e136…
10-25 06:14:39	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	Yes	SELL	10	71¢	$7	0x7e35ac…
10-25 06:14:29	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	Yes	SELL	10	71¢	$7	0xb4ecb0…
10-24 17:27:38	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Yes	BUY	50	33¢	$17	0x2eaafe…
10-24 17:24:06	Will more than 585,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?	No	BUY	40	90¢	$36	0x6058e2…
10-24 15:18:23	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	Yes	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0x5b144b…
10-24 15:18:18	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Yes	SELL	40	40¢	$16	0x6cc423…
10-24 15:18:18	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	Yes	BUY	30	55¢	$16	0x66886a…
10-24 15:18:18	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	Yes	BUY	50	53¢	$26	0x225f75…
10-24 15:18:18	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	Yes	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x09e941…
10-24 09:16:03	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	Yes	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x1c7290…
10-23 01:11:06	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Yes	SELL	85	78¢	$66	0xa13324…
10-23 01:08:44	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Yes	SELL	6	78¢	$5	0xe22157…
10-23 01:08:44	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Yes	SELL	27	78¢	$21	0x6271d1…
10-22 15:09:21	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Yes	SELL	64	78¢	$50	0x940c70…
10-22 06:04:14	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Yes	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0xb1801d…
10-22 01:40:42	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Yes	SELL	3	75¢	$2	0x650796…
10-21 15:03:02	Will more than 585,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?	No	BUY	99	84¢	$83	0x7da2d1…
10-21 13:13:14	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Yes	SELL	7	72¢	$5	0x064259…
10-21 09:19:03	Will more than 585,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?	No	BUY	49	85¢	$42	0x4da341…
10-21 09:15:51	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Yes	BUY	110	60¢	$66	0x96def4…
10-21 09:15:44	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	Yes	SELL	308	33¢	$103	0xaf8715…
10-21 01:13:39	Will more than 585,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?	No	BUY	40	89¢	$36	0xe3c5a6…
10-20 21:26:02	U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?	No	BUY	93	92¢	$85	0x1a9374…
10-20 21:15:47	Will the lowest Baton Rouge river level be 6.00 ft or more by November 30?	Yes	BUY	49	47¢	$23	0x247e87…
10-20 21:14:53	Will the lowest St. Louis river level be 3.00 ft or more by November 30?	Yes	BUY	205	11¢	$23	0x7a5126…
10-20 19:07:33	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Yes	SELL	40	60¢	$24	0xe8211e…
10-20 13:57:39	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	33¢	$0	0x561c4b…
10-20 11:53:09	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	33¢	$2	0x1f392e…
10-20 11:11:15	Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	117	39¢	$46	0x7df3d6…
10-20 11:09:06	Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	130	85¢	$110	0xfb9b82…
10-20 11:07:29	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Yes	BUY	397	50¢	$198	0x57c566…
10-20 11:03:15	Plague case in US by December 31?	No	SELL	489	92¢	$450	0xdfaafc…
10-20 11:01:33	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	44	33¢	$15	0xd97026…
10-20 10:59:26	Will the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	15¢	$150	0x02c64b…
10-19 21:13:10	Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft?	Yes	BUY	357	84¢	$300	0xff228e…
10-19 17:01:51	Will more than 585,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?	No	BUY	120	86¢	$103	0xe7ff9d…
10-19 16:41:09	Will more than 585,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0xa5cb14…
10-19 16:40:44	Will more than 585,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xe1d32e…
10-19 16:40:32	Will more than 585,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?	No	BUY	40	78¢	$31	0xc1e23d…
10-19 11:30:11	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	Yes	SELL	0	39¢	$0	0xf4dd1c…
10-19 11:07:57	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Yes	BUY	139	50¢	$69	0xd19d2c…
10-19 09:57:38	Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	680	61¢	$415	0x59169e…
10-19 09:57:38	Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	166	61¢	$101	0x4e737c…
10-19 02:04:36	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	Yes	SELL	2	46¢	$1	0xa55a5e…
10-18 22:13:56	Will the lowest St. Louis river level be 3.00 ft or more by November 30?	Yes	BUY	322	7¢	$23	0x7715e1…
10-18 15:39:12	Will the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	728	13¢	$95	0x521b83…
10-18 14:17:00	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Yes	SELL	0	46¢	$0	0x171236…
10-18 13:39:08	Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	150	51¢	$76	0x0a5a74…
10-18 13:32:36	Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	51¢	$4	0xfc3ac7…
10-18 13:32:20	Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	51¢	$1	0x278336…
10-18 13:32:18	Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	250	51¢	$128	0xe3fcf7…
10-18 13:32:00	Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	51¢	$5	0x6497e6…
10-18 13:31:57	Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	42	51¢	$22	0x2a37ff…
10-18 11:51:38	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	403	62¢	$250	0xae24aa…
10-18 10:02:21	Will Claude go down 8-10 times in October?	No	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0xf75703…
10-18 10:02:21	Will Claude go down 8-10 times in October?	No	SELL	5	91¢	$4	0xb335f5…
10-18 10:02:21	Will Claude go down 8-10 times in October?	No	SELL	20	91¢	$18	0x3a3752…
10-18 09:33:29	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	62¢	$3	0x704d70…
10-18 09:21:05	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Yes	SELL	10	46¢	$5	0xab7af6…
10-18 08:48:53	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	62¢	$3	0x7663ce…
10-18 08:07:38	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	62¢	$5	0xaea6b3…
10-18 07:42:02	Will the EU lift its ban on Russian diesel imports by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0xc535a2…
10-18 07:36:39	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Yes	BUY	301	42¢	$126	0x12eb7d…
10-17 17:50:35	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	62¢	$6	0x22b6f9…
10-17 16:39:59	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	62¢	$5	0x2e17fb…
10-17 13:46:44	Will the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	14¢	$42	0x9bc0be…
10-16 22:56:38	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	66¢	$13	0xc3bc22…
10-16 21:58:33	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	66¢	$3	0x63c24c…
10-16 21:58:29	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	66¢	$3	0x260e31…
10-16 21:58:20	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	66¢	$3	0xb781a2…
10-16 21:58:00	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	66¢	$3	0x929edc…
10-16 20:50:56	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	66¢	$8	0xc4e352…
10-16 20:50:11	Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	155	35¢	$54	0x54d2aa…
10-16 14:12:46	Will there be at least 4900 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	702	13¢	$91	0x1670a4…
10-16 14:12:33	Will there be at least 4800 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	216	35¢	$76	0x97370d…
10-16 14:10:10	Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	67	7¢	$5	0x2227aa…
10-16 13:58:01	Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft?	Yes	BUY	200	78¢	$156	0x90568f…
10-16 13:57:10	Will the lowest Baton Rouge river level be 6.00 ft or more by November 30?	Yes	BUY	418	52¢	$216	0x9995ca…
10-16 13:56:24	Will the lowest St. Louis river level be 3.00 ft or more by November 30?	Yes	BUY	500	27¢	$135	0x0acea2…
10-15 09:46:34	Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	47	24¢	$11	0x0de2e2…
10-14 20:02:49	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	79¢	$40	0x41138f…
10-14 15:35:49	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	79¢	$10	0x652b3e…
10-14 12:39:02	Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0xb426ba…
10-14 12:38:53	Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	23¢	$5	0x96bb4e…
10-14 12:38:50	Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	23¢	$5	0x370ce9…
10-14 12:38:39	Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	23¢	$8	0xc7ec38…
10-14 10:51:31	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	80¢	$18	0xc1b19d…
10-14 10:11:40	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	42	80¢	$34	0xa3a000…
10-14 09:58:19	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	80¢	$40	0x1dade2…
10-14 09:52:08	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	80¢	$3	0x69616c…