Close-Timber — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$150

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

0.9%

Resolved

Trades

38,080

lifetime

Volume

$193.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$12

1 position

First seen

2026-01-18

last 06-27 16:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

84% — —

Other

10% 13% $-150

Politics

5% — —

Tech

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

69 active days in 12wk • peak 76 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No		-13	$-11	86¢	$-12	$-0	06-05 08:50

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will sofi technologies sofi be added to the sp 500 by march 31 2026	72	$4.5K	4,782	1,277	+3,505	open	—	03-07 03:29
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	19	$4.0K	2,572	2,572	+0	open	—	04-08 02:09
Will MrBeast say "Subscribe" during his next YouTube video?	72	$3.2K	3,465	2,975	+490	open	—	03-07 17:54
will ciena cien be added to the sp 500 by march 31 2026	32	$1.2K	3,464	0	+3,464	open	—	02-04 22:17
ethereum up or down february 11 1am et	36	$863	489	489	+0	open	—	02-11 06:20
bitcoin up or down february 16 7pm et	78	$848	896	652	+244	open	—	02-17 00:59
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	8	$596	300	300	+0	open	—	03-03 22:00
will alnylam pharmaceuticals alny be added to the sp 500 by march 31 2026	9	$579	319	319	+0	open	—	03-24 11:08
vsco quarterly earnings nongaap eps 03 05 2026 2pt48	56	$558	559	0	+559	open	—	03-05 12:46
btc updown 15m 1771274700	32	$524	325	322	+3	open	—	02-16 20:56
Will Trump say "Beautiful" or "Wonderful" 12+ times during WHCA Dinner events?	3	$499	521	0	+521	open	—	04-26 00:59
btc updown 15m 1771356600	103	$472	582	500	+82	open	—	02-17 19:44
bitcoin up or down february 11 2am et	11	$439	285	274	+10	open	—	02-11 07:33
btc updown 15m 1771341300	66	$409	397	387	+10	open	—	02-17 15:30
btc updown 15m 1771354800	78	$405	468	326	+142	open	—	02-17 19:14
eth updown 15m 1771260300	68	$400	522	450	+72	open	—	02-16 16:59
btc updown 15m 1771393500	79	$386	393	330	+63	open	—	02-18 06:00
bitcoin up or down february 16 12pm et	69	$386	572	569	+3	open	—	02-16 17:54
btc updown 15m 1771283700	35	$370	312	239	+73	open	—	02-16 23:29
eth updown 15m 1771274700	24	$370	226	206	+20	open	—	02-16 20:56
bitcoin up or down february 14 4pm et	40	$363	236	230	+6	open	—	02-14 21:44
btc updown 15m 1771340400	62	$362	373	346	+27	open	—	02-17 15:14
xrp up or down february 21 6pm et	19	$346	285	220	+65	open	—	02-23 15:41
btc updown 15m 1771260300	65	$311	473	410	+63	open	—	02-16 16:59
btc updown 15m 1771269300	37	$307	332	191	+141	open	—	02-16 19:28
btc updown 15m 1771391700	72	$304	388	316	+72	open	—	02-18 05:28
btc updown 15m 1771320600	37	$302	397	201	+196	open	—	02-17 09:44
bitcoin up or down february 8 6pm et	37	$300	375	0	+375	open	—	02-08 23:31
btc updown 15m 1771362000	78	$297	388	248	+140	open	—	02-17 21:13
xrp up or down february 22 10pm et	55	$296	572	0	+572	open	—	02-23 03:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-27 16:00:20	will mrbeast say red line during his next youtube video 20260616145800197	No	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xef9deb…
06-27 16:00:20	will mrbeast say prize during his next youtube video 20260616145800195	No	BUY	70	6¢	$4	0xb10389…
06-27 16:00:20	will mrbeast say chandler during his next youtube video 20260616145800200	Yes	BUY	34	5¢	$2	0x2bcb57…
06-27 16:00:20	will mrbeast say eliminate or eliminated during his next youtube video 20260616145800193	No	BUY	82	6¢	$5	0x143a23…
06-27 15:54:58	will mrbeast say red line during his next youtube video 20260616145800197	No	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0x898100…
06-27 15:50:47	will mrbeast say chandler during his next youtube video 20260616145800200	Yes	BUY	72	6¢	$4	0xc25f49…
06-27 15:50:05	will mrbeast say red line during his next youtube video 20260616145800197	No	BUY	95	6¢	$6	0x827aa2…
06-26 15:50:32	will mrbeast say hottest during his next youtube video 20260616145800203	Yes	BUY	56	6¢	$3	0x35cab3…
06-26 11:03:47	will mrbeast say chandler during his next youtube video 20260616145800200	Yes	BUY	2	9¢	$0	0xf10873…
06-26 11:03:47	will mrbeast say chandler during his next youtube video 20260616145800200	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0xb425d2…
06-26 01:01:14	will mrbeast say hottest during his next youtube video 20260616145800203	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x6817fc…
06-26 01:00:14	will mrbeast say hottest during his next youtube video 20260616145800203	Yes	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0xb9c97c…
06-26 00:18:20	will mrbeast say subscriber during his next youtube video 20260616145800201	Yes	BUY	9	14¢	$1	0xc7c5a0…
06-26 00:08:40	will mrbeast say subscriber during his next youtube video 20260616145800201	Yes	BUY	33	16¢	$5	0xaab28f…
06-25 23:55:25	will mrbeast say subscriber during his next youtube video 20260616145800201	Yes	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0xb47d68…
06-25 22:41:43	will trump say ai or artificial intelligence during rose garden club dinner events 20260625143931360	Yes	BUY	15	28¢	$4	0x10ff25…
06-25 20:32:46	will trump say state during tele rally 20260625143743111	Yes	BUY	8	81¢	$6	0xf8d780…
06-25 20:31:37	will trump say state during tele rally 20260625143743111	Yes	BUY	9	79¢	$7	0x13dbc0…
06-25 20:31:11	will trump say state during tele rally 20260625143743111	Yes	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x7a7c13…
06-25 20:30:58	will trump say job 10 times during rose garden club dinner events 20260625143931347	Yes	BUY	7	41¢	$3	0xf37cee…
06-25 19:45:40	will trump say voter id during tele rally 20260625143743113	Yes	BUY	5	17¢	$1	0xb1638e…
06-25 19:45:38	will trump say ai or artificial intelligence during rose garden club dinner events 20260625143931360	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xdbf314…
06-25 17:14:59	will stock market be said during the next episode of the all in podcast 20260622142240393	No	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x95f118…
06-24 17:21:52	will nvidia be said during the next episode of the all in podcast 20260622142240385	No	BUY	9	63¢	$6	0x6e4618…
06-24 13:28:47	will nvidia be said during the next episode of the all in podcast 20260622142240385	No	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x340246…
06-24 12:45:41	will mrbeast say feastables during his next youtube video 20260616145800199	Yes	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x4c350e…
06-24 12:01:53	will mrbeast say prize during his next youtube video 20260616145800195	No	BUY	3	9¢	$0	0x974c36…
06-24 02:21:43	will mrbeast say chandler during his next youtube video 20260616145800200	Yes	BUY	9	20¢	$2	0x988cff…
06-24 02:15:47	will mrbeast say chandler during his next youtube video 20260616145800200	Yes	BUY	27	19¢	$5	0xe015b1…
06-24 02:14:16	will mrbeast say chandler during his next youtube video 20260616145800200	Yes	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0xfac442…
06-24 02:09:25	will mrbeast say chandler during his next youtube video 20260616145800200	Yes	BUY	30	17¢	$5	0xd0d45e…
06-23 22:32:58	will mrbeast say feastables during his next youtube video 20260616145800199	Yes	BUY	26	16¢	$4	0x69c9ab…
06-23 22:22:29	will mrbeast say feastables during his next youtube video 20260616145800199	Yes	BUY	34	15¢	$5	0xa99397…
06-23 14:02:44	will mrbeast say eliminate or eliminated during his next youtube video 20260616145800193	No	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0xee13a1…
06-23 12:00:01	will mrbeast say eliminate or eliminated during his next youtube video 20260616145800193	No	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x2687f9…
06-23 09:54:23	will mrbeast say prize during his next youtube video 20260616145800195	No	BUY	40	9¢	$4	0x36bfdd…
06-23 07:53:28	will mrbeast say red line during his next youtube video 20260616145800197	No	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0xdcb95f…
06-23 04:19:28	will mrbeast say red line during his next youtube video 20260616145800197	No	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0xf759ad…
06-22 21:13:10	will mrbeast say red line during his next youtube video 20260616145800197	No	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x2332fc…
06-22 21:11:13	will mrbeast say red line during his next youtube video 20260616145800197	No	BUY	11	11¢	$1	0xf9cd82…
06-22 21:08:22	will mrbeast say red line during his next youtube video 20260616145800197	No	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x058603…
06-22 20:49:25	will mrbeast say prize during his next youtube video 20260616145800195	No	BUY	23	21¢	$5	0xf2b9d4…
06-22 20:47:07	will mrbeast say red line during his next youtube video 20260616145800197	No	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x7e58b6…
06-22 20:44:07	will mrbeast say prize during his next youtube video 20260616145800195	No	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x886c30…
06-22 16:00:01	will mrbeast say prize during his next youtube video 20260616145800195	No	BUY	8	34¢	$3	0x076d3f…
06-22 15:46:17	will mrbeast say prize during his next youtube video 20260616145800195	No	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x9ff3fd…
06-22 15:44:23	will mrbeast say prize during his next youtube video 20260616145800195	No	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x871b8b…
06-22 15:40:31	will mrbeast say prize during his next youtube video 20260616145800195	No	BUY	19	31¢	$6	0xfe59fa…
06-22 15:35:23	will mrbeast say prize during his next youtube video 20260616145800195	No	BUY	17	33¢	$6	0x9e6773…
06-21 20:40:55	will mrbeast say sponsor or sponsored or sponsoring during his next youtube video 20260616145800198	No	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0x74dcdd…
06-21 13:29:47	will ninja be said during the valorant masters london 2026 grand finals 20260609165010362	No	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x8d7505…
06-21 09:41:53	will bleed out be said during the iem cologne 2026 grand finals 20260614191816916	No	BUY	0	88¢	$0	0x4243dd…
06-21 09:02:16	will bleed out be said during the iem cologne 2026 grand finals 20260614191816916	No	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x165e9e…
06-21 08:51:40	will shorty be said during the valorant masters london 2026 grand finals 20260609165010361	Yes	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x094c0e…
06-21 08:46:17	will ninja be said during the valorant masters london 2026 grand finals 20260609165010362	No	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x781dd3…
06-21 02:59:37	will hunters fury be said during the valorant masters london 2026 grand finals 20260609165010367	Yes	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xac2d5b…
06-20 23:59:38	will ninja be said during the valorant masters london 2026 grand finals 20260609165010362	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x860db6…
06-20 22:03:44	will bomb be said 100 times during the iem cologne 2026 grand finals 20260614191816909	No	BUY	1	14¢	$0	0x4d3550…
06-20 20:39:01	will bleed out be said during the iem cologne 2026 grand finals 20260614191816916	No	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x002e42…
06-20 19:19:52	will bleed out be said during the iem cologne 2026 grand finals 20260614191816916	No	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x011658…
06-20 18:01:56	will bleed out be said during the iem cologne 2026 grand finals 20260614191816916	No	BUY	7	83¢	$6	0xa53fbd…
06-20 16:27:07	will bleed out be said during the iem cologne 2026 grand finals 20260614191816916	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xb95d9a…
06-20 16:26:01	will bleed out be said during the iem cologne 2026 grand finals 20260614191816916	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x1da0c7…
06-20 16:25:14	will bleed out be said during the iem cologne 2026 grand finals 20260614191816916	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x1e3c56…
06-20 10:40:56	will tour de force be said during the valorant masters london 2026 grand finals 20260609165010373	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xadf8b7…
06-20 09:18:52	will tour de force be said during the valorant masters london 2026 grand finals 20260609165010373	No	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xf32776…
06-19 01:19:20	will stinger be said during the valorant masters london 2026 grand finals 20260609165010360	Yes	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xc3df75…
06-18 18:19:08	will prowler be said during the valorant masters london 2026 grand finals 20260609165010372	Yes	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xc289dc…
06-18 09:45:04	will prowler be said during the valorant masters london 2026 grand finals 20260609165010372	Yes	BUY	7	88¢	$6	0xde605e…
06-18 09:10:22	will hunters fury be said during the valorant masters london 2026 grand finals 20260609165010367	Yes	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xad9d6e…
06-18 09:09:38	will pearl be said during the valorant masters london 2026 grand finals 20260609165010366	Yes	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x78fbdd…
06-18 09:07:04	will shorty be said during the valorant masters london 2026 grand finals 20260609165010361	Yes	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xcc5919…
06-18 09:06:55	will stinger be said during the valorant masters london 2026 grand finals 20260609165010360	Yes	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x2c592f…
06-18 09:05:35	will shorty be said during the valorant masters london 2026 grand finals 20260609165010361	Yes	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xc40beb…
06-18 09:05:22	will stinger be said during the valorant masters london 2026 grand finals 20260609165010360	Yes	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x50ab50…
06-18 09:03:58	will ninja be said during the valorant masters london 2026 grand finals 20260609165010362	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xebfb21…
06-18 09:03:10	will shorty be said during the valorant masters london 2026 grand finals 20260609165010361	Yes	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x2c50d2…
06-18 09:02:32	will stinger be said during the valorant masters london 2026 grand finals 20260609165010360	Yes	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xe2f52f…
06-17 23:33:49	will ipo be said during the next episode of the all in podcast 20260612212743966	No	BUY	9	24¢	$2	0x4608ee…
06-17 22:40:17	will ipo be said during the next episode of the all in podcast 20260612212743966	No	BUY	13	24¢	$3	0x7ef2dc…
06-17 18:25:11	will warsh say stock during june press conference 20260608181156662 243 416	No	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xcf61c8…
06-17 18:07:52	will warsh say maximum employment during june press conference 20260608181156668 768 911	Yes	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xadbd6f…
06-17 18:06:14	will warsh say money during june press conference 20260608181156652	No	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xded424…
06-17 18:04:29	will warsh say fed during june press conference 20260608181156656	Yes	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0xaa5252…
06-17 17:56:34	will warsh say open minded during june press conference	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x976291…
06-17 17:35:05	will warsh say fed during june press conference 20260608181156656	Yes	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x2b7c4e…
06-17 16:59:14	will warsh say predecessor during june press conference	No	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x20b6ab…
06-17 16:44:29	will warsh say maximum employment during june press conference 20260608181156668 768 911	Yes	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x3c149d…
06-17 16:44:22	will warsh say predecessor during june press conference	No	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x08e785…
06-17 14:56:11	will warsh say crypto or bitcoin during june press conference 20260608181156658 595 322 276	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x2e2d2c…
06-17 14:49:47	will warsh say predecessor during june press conference	No	BUY	7	80¢	$6	0xca21fe…
06-17 14:49:20	will warsh say money during june press conference 20260608181156652	No	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xe35378…
06-17 14:44:50	will warsh say crypto or bitcoin during june press conference 20260608181156658 595 322 276	No	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xe1ce5b…
06-17 14:30:41	will warsh say jerome or powell during june press conference 20260608181156649	Yes	BUY	8	68¢	$5	0x8aa746…
06-17 13:45:16	will warsh say inflation 60 times during june press conference 20260608181156647	Yes	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0xc998b3…
06-17 13:29:41	will warsh say crypto or bitcoin during june press conference 20260608181156658 595 322 276	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xdea328…
06-17 13:08:26	will warsh say crypto or bitcoin during june press conference 20260608181156658 595 322 276	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xdb9154…
06-17 12:41:31	will warsh say open minded during june press conference	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xea730d…
06-17 12:35:49	will warsh say pandemic during june press conference	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x39b654…
06-17 12:35:31	will warsh say pandemic during june press conference	Yes	BUY	9	40¢	$4	0xacf178…