Guilty-Expose — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

14.3%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$36

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-28

last 05-18 20:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

55% 0% $-3

Politics

36% 33% +$3

Sports

6% — —

Crypto

3% 0% $-1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (7) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	2	$2	5	5	+0	open	—	05-18 20:38
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	2	$1	8	8	+0	open	—	05-18 20:38
Will Starmer say "Honorable" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	2	$1	3	3	+0	open	—	05-18 20:40
Will Powell say "Goods inflation" during April press conference?	1	$1	3	0	+3	open	—	04-29 13:58
Will Trump dance today?	1	$1	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	04-28 23:30
Will Trump post "Ceasefire" or "Cease-fire" or "Cease fire" on Truth Social this week?	1	$1	3	0	+3	open	—	05-10 10:58
Will Bernie Sanders say "Amazon" or "Jeff" or "Bezos" in Michigan?	1	$1	12	0	+12	open	—	05-03 15:32
Will "Innovation" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	1	$1	2	0	+2	Yes	$-1	05-08 16:21
Will Powell say "Oil" during April press conference?	1	$1	20	0	+20	open	—	04-29 13:57
Will Bernie Sanders say "Elon" or "Musk" in Michigan?	1	$1	12	0	+12	open	—	05-03 15:33
Will Trump say "Scam" or "Fraud" this week?	1	$1	6	0	+6	Yes	+$5	05-10 10:49
76ers vs. Celtics	1	$1	5	0	+5	open	—	04-28 23:41
Will Trump say "Trump" during King Charles visit?	1	$1	5	0	+5	open	—	04-29 14:00
Will "King" or "Queen" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	1	$1	4	0	+4	Yes	$-1	05-08 16:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	1	$1	3	0	+3	Down	$-1	05-10 10:55
Will "Table" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	1	$1	3	0	+3	open	—	04-29 14:02
Will Bernie Sanders say "Iran" in Michigan?	1	$1	11	0	+11	open	—	05-03 15:32
Will "Software" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	1	$1	4	0	+4	Yes	$-1	05-08 16:20
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$1	3	0	+3	open	—	05-10 10:53
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during April press conference?	1	$1	3	0	+3	open	—	04-29 13:58
Will Trump say "Coward" in April?	1	$1	8	0	+8	open	—	04-29 14:04
Will Trump say "Regarded" this week?	1	$1	5	0	+5	No	$-1	05-10 10:48
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference?	1	$1	36	0	+36	open	—	04-29 13:58
Will Bernie Sanders say "Election" in Michigan?	1	$1	11	0	+11	open	—	05-03 15:32
Will "Tariff" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	1	$1	8	0	+8	open	—	04-29 14:01
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$1	3	0	+3	open	—	05-10 10:53
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week?	1	$1	3	0	+3	Yes	$-1	05-10 10:57
Will Bernie Sanders say "Affordable" or "Affordability" in Michigan?	1	$1	8	0	+8	open	—	05-03 15:31
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during April press conference?	1	$1	6	0	+6	open	—	04-29 13:59
Will Trump say "America Last" in April?	1	$1	10	0	+10	open	—	04-29 14:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-18 20:40:43	Will Starmer say "Honorable" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	No	SELL	3	8¢	$0	0x4ae8a5…
05-18 20:38:55	Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	No	SELL	8	5¢	$0	0x7c47d1…
05-18 20:38:48	Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	No	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0x55441b…
05-18 16:16:30	Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	No	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x25c5a3…
05-10 10:58:39	Will Trump post "Ceasefire" or "Cease-fire" or "Cease fire" on Truth Social this week?	No	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x231b68…
05-10 10:57:29	Will Trump say "Transgender" this week?	No	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xba1e27…
05-10 10:55:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xd18784…
05-10 10:53:29	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x741ec7…
05-10 10:53:07	Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x473624…
05-10 10:52:16	Will Starmer say "Honorable" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	No	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x830255…
05-10 10:50:36	Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	No	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xf587bc…
05-10 10:49:09	Will Trump say "Scam" or "Fraud" this week?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x527dbd…
05-10 10:48:49	Will Trump say "Regarded" this week?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xabd920…
05-08 16:21:02	Will "Innovation" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xc5bc34…
05-08 16:20:41	Will "Software" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	No	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x096a17…
05-08 16:19:41	Will "King" or "Queen" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	No	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xf5495d…
05-03 15:33:14	Will Bernie Sanders say "Elon" or "Musk" in Michigan?	No	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xf67edb…
05-03 15:32:46	Will Bernie Sanders say "Amazon" or "Jeff" or "Bezos" in Michigan?	No	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x715285…
05-03 15:32:34	Will Bernie Sanders say "Election" in Michigan?	No	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x0d59e6…
05-03 15:32:14	Will Bernie Sanders say "Iran" in Michigan?	No	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x908dbf…
05-03 15:31:42	Will Bernie Sanders say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" in Michigan?	No	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xc761a4…
05-03 15:31:28	Will Bernie Sanders say "Affordable" or "Affordability" in Michigan?	No	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xe7cc95…
04-29 14:04:52	Will Trump say "Coward" in April?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xb7d6b4…
04-29 14:04:46	Will Trump say "Fuck" or "Fucking" or "Fucked" in April?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x536f73…
04-29 14:04:26	Will Trump say "America Last" in April?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x2f12fe…
04-29 14:02:42	Will "Table" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x4b661c…
04-29 14:02:24	Will "Crazy" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	No	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x47f2f1…
04-29 14:01:58	Will "Tariff" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	No	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x1779ad…
04-29 14:00:34	Will Trump say "Trump" during King Charles visit?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xbcc322…
04-29 13:59:04	Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during April press conference?	No	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x227a52…
04-29 13:58:50	Will Powell say "Goods inflation" during April press conference?	No	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xfb54aa…
04-29 13:58:22	Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference?	No	BUY	36	3¢	$1	0x21b340…
04-29 13:58:04	Will Powell say "Pandemic" during April press conference?	No	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x00ebc7…
04-29 13:57:24	Will Powell say "Oil" during April press conference?	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xb00dd6…
04-28 23:42:12	Trail Blazers vs. Spurs	Trail Blazers	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x3ca197…
04-28 23:41:26	76ers vs. Celtics	76ers	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x48dec1…
04-28 23:30:04	Will Trump dance today?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x50f3c2…