Kindly-Answer-Variability — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

74.2%

Resolved

Trades

140

lifetime

Volume

$141

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-25

last 06-09 05:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Crypto

96% 45% $-0

Other

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 20 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (10) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	2	$10	9	9	+0	Down	+$6	05-09 06:44
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	2	$6	7	7	+0	open	—	04-25 16:33
btc updown 5m 1780942200	2	$5	6	6	+0	open	—	06-08 18:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	2	$5	3	3	+0	Down	+$1	05-09 07:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	2	$4	2	2	+0	Down	+$0	05-09 07:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	3	$3	3	3	-0	open	—	05-16 15:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	2	$3	5	5	+0	Down	+$1	05-13 10:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	Down	+$1	05-13 15:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	1	$3	0	3	-3	open	—	05-23 09:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	05-21 05:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	2	$2	2	2	+0	open	—	05-23 16:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	2	$2	3	3	+0	open	—	05-01 07:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	2	$2	2	2	+0	open	—	05-26 07:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	2	$2	2	2	+0	Up	+$0	05-09 16:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	2	$2	2	2	+0	Up	+$0	05-09 18:59
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	2	$2	2	2	+0	open	—	05-28 12:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	2	$2	2	2	+0	open	—	05-17 06:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	2	$2	3	3	+0	open	—	05-25 10:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-04 19:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	2	$2	2	2	+0	Up	+$0	05-09 19:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	1	$2	8	0	+8	open	—	04-28 05:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	1	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	04-27 17:15
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	2	$2	2	2	+0	open	—	05-27 12:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	2	$2	2	2	+0	open	—	05-25 11:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	2	$2	0	2	-2	open	—	05-26 03:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	2	$2	0	2	-2	open	—	05-26 05:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	2	$2	2	2	+0	open	—	05-29 04:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	2	$2	5	5	+0	Down	$-0	05-09 06:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	2	$2	0	2	-2	open	—	05-26 03:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	2	$1	0	2	-2	Up	+$0	05-09 12:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-10 06:32:51	btc updown 5m 1781073000	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x85f95b…
06-10 03:51:18	btc updown 5m 1781063400	Down	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0xab95f3…
06-10 03:44:54	btc updown 5m 1781062800	Up	SELL	1	73¢	$1	0xe46ca6…
06-10 03:43:37	btc updown 5m 1781062800	Down	SELL	1	51¢	$1	0x077712…
06-09 05:54:07	btc updown 5m 1780984200	Up	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0x21493f…
06-08 18:13:52	btc updown 5m 1780942200	Up	SELL	6	60¢	$4	0x817c1a…
06-08 18:12:01	btc updown 5m 1780942200	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xf6586f…
05-29 04:14:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	SELL	2	27¢	$1	0x55fc23…
05-29 04:11:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xa9d13d…
05-29 03:43:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x6e738b…
05-28 16:49:08	XRP Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x4aae75…
05-28 13:08:40	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x57d51b…
05-28 13:04:12	XRP Up or Down - May 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x5fdf7b…
05-28 12:57:49	XRP Up or Down - May 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	SELL	2	54¢	$1	0x248906…
05-28 12:55:54	XRP Up or Down - May 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x589ac5…
05-28 11:28:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x3155a0…
05-27 15:59:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x53de43…
05-27 12:28:01	XRP Up or Down - May 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	SELL	2	43¢	$1	0xdf1291…
05-27 12:27:25	XRP Up or Down - May 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x784745…
05-27 12:23:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xe445fb…
05-27 05:17:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x0cce47…
05-27 05:14:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x6e1162…
05-26 07:33:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x9469c4…
05-26 07:17:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	SELL	2	79¢	$1	0x9eb27f…
05-26 07:16:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x39d4bd…
05-26 07:08:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Down	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x2117ad…
05-26 07:04:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x7bd6ed…
05-26 06:37:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xde0d7d…
05-26 05:24:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x1273d8…
05-26 05:17:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0xaf1ab5…
05-26 05:14:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Up	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x0eb5c7…
05-26 05:09:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0xb2cf7d…
05-26 05:07:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0xbcc386…
05-26 05:02:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0x417ceb…
05-26 04:50:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x299044…
05-26 03:33:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0x0d2045…
05-26 03:22:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x629cec…
05-26 03:20:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x90c0fd…
05-26 03:18:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	SELL	1	51¢	$1	0x098a77…
05-26 03:14:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xd3cb3c…
05-26 03:12:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x4c5023…
05-26 03:02:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	SELL	0	36¢	$0	0xeaa5bd…
05-25 15:48:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	SELL	0	90¢	$0	0xc7b97c…
05-25 15:43:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	SELL	0	83¢	$0	0x36190a…
05-25 11:12:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	SELL	2	34¢	$1	0x0d8cb4…
05-25 11:12:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xeb0ff5…
05-25 11:03:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x7b6129…
05-25 10:54:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	SELL	3	42¢	$1	0xeb9a81…
05-25 10:53:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x614d65…
05-25 10:49:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	SELL	0	87¢	$0	0x506e66…
05-25 09:07:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0x5552f2…
05-25 08:57:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	SELL	0	58¢	$0	0x38ad19…
05-25 08:52:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	SELL	0	89¢	$0	0x9815f9…
05-25 08:49:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	SELL	0	95¢	$0	0x5b80c3…
05-25 08:48:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	SELL	0	91¢	$0	0x7da3bb…
05-24 13:17:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	SELL	0	91¢	$0	0x3fceb9…
05-24 13:14:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	SELL	0	96¢	$0	0x2fe83f…
05-23 16:59:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	SELL	2	86¢	$1	0xcc4de9…
05-23 16:58:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x59e359…
05-23 09:12:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	SELL	3	90¢	$3	0x670b15…
05-22 18:24:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xb48956…
05-22 08:36:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x589803…
05-22 08:33:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	SELL	0	71¢	$0	0xd839c6…
05-22 06:29:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	SELL	0	96¢	$0	0x52b4d2…
05-22 06:27:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Up	SELL	0	34¢	$0	0xa5bb83…
05-22 06:18:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	SELL	0	73¢	$0	0x04b8ab…
05-21 12:59:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0xe99911…
05-21 07:17:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	SELL	0	90¢	$0	0x8db3f4…
05-21 06:13:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	SELL	0	90¢	$0	0xd1d662…
05-21 06:08:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Down	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x87e583…
05-21 06:07:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Up	SELL	0	50¢	$0	0xf42c05…
05-21 06:04:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	SELL	0	91¢	$0	0xe5787e…
05-21 06:03:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	SELL	0	22¢	$0	0x0b67b9…
05-21 05:59:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0xbca308…
05-21 05:59:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	SELL	0	49¢	$0	0x5130e1…
05-21 05:22:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Down	SELL	2	90¢	$2	0x04c6a8…
05-21 05:21:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x3503c7…
05-21 05:20:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x1ec828…
05-21 04:45:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Down	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x1223e4…
05-21 04:29:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Up	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x0b0536…
05-20 11:04:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	SELL	0	83¢	$0	0x7036d9…
05-17 06:26:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Up	SELL	2	51¢	$1	0x2e6251…
05-17 06:25:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x2dd2c9…
05-17 06:24:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0xb4cd56…
05-16 18:24:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	SELL	0	85¢	$0	0xc57a26…
05-16 18:23:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	SELL	0	54¢	$0	0x08792c…
05-16 15:59:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0x12e3b8…
05-16 15:58:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	SELL	3	42¢	$1	0xdc41bc…
05-16 15:56:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	57¢	$2	0x7fd513…
05-15 15:55:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x78e256…
05-14 11:26:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x892db1…
05-14 08:12:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	9¢	$0	0x36c914…
05-13 15:43:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xfe2ad4…
05-13 15:41:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xcaba8f…
05-13 10:23:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	SELL	5	47¢	$2	0x0f2c0d…
05-13 10:21:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x5d0138…
05-13 10:16:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xf42e33…
05-12 18:44:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x26736c…
05-11 07:22:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x7b395a…
05-10 18:38:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x1661ce…