Flimsy-Elderberry — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

+$13

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

81.4%

Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

1,369 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$93

$6.35K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-05-28

last 11-01 00:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 47 days

Categories

Other

74% 38% -$93

Crypto

23% 79% +$14

Politics

2% 87% -$9

Pop-Culture

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

41 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	Yes		+5	$4	84¢	$4	+$0	10-11 23:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	129	$2.0K	1,864	1,863	+1	Yes	-$38	06-13 10:01
will spacexs valuation hit high 2pt5t by june 30	48	$792	704	703	+2	Yes	-$13	06-13 10:01
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-25 11:15 UTC	9	$149	125	125	+0	Down	+$29	06-25 11:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-30 09:25 UTC	4	$98	85	85	+0	Down	+$19	06-30 09:27
will openais valuation hit high 2pt0t by december 31 937 533	7	$79	80	80	+0	open	—	06-13 10:01
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-25 11:25 UTC	6	$69	70	59	+12	Down	+$3	06-25 11:28
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	7	$69	126	126	+0	open	—	09-09 06:32
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-25 10:50 UTC	2	$59	91	91	+0	Up	+$17	06-25 10:54
will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt5t by december 31 169	5	$54	40	40	+0	open	—	06-19 12:20
Will "Turning Point: Generation 9/11" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?	4	$46	35	35	+0	Yes	+$22	09-07 17:41
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?	2	$45	100	100	+0	open	—	06-11 07:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-25 11:35 UTC	1	$45	104	0	+104	Up	-$45	06-25 11:36
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-30 10:30 UTC	4	$43	51	51	+0	Down	+$3	06-30 10:32
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-13 11:35 UTC	2	$40	63	0	+63	Down	+$4	06-13 11:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-30 10:35 UTC	3	$37	52	20	+32	Down	-$11	06-30 10:35
Will "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least $21M?	5	$36	20	20	+0	No	+$4	10-26 01:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-25 11:20 UTC	3	$35	52	24	+28	Down	-$5	06-25 11:22
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-13 10:35 UTC	1	$35	106	0	+106	Up	+$71	06-13 10:38
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23?	2	$32	31	31	+0	Yes	+$30	06-23 18:34
Will "The Widower: 'Til Death Do Us Part" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?	7	$32	35	0	+35	Yes	+$3	10-05 12:42
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-30 09:20 UTC	3	$32	27	23	+4	Down	+$6	06-30 09:21
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-19 01:15 UTC	1	$27	27	0	+27	Up	+$0	06-19 01:19
Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the top US Netflix show this week?	4	$26	15	15	+0	No	-$1	10-24 13:21
will openais valuation hit low 800b by december 31 852 948	2	$26	20	20	+0	open	—	06-13 10:01
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-25 11:05 UTC	2	$26	18	18	+0	Down	+$6	06-25 11:06
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 20:45 UTC	1	$25	435	0	+435	Down	-$25	06-04 20:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-30 10:45 UTC	2	$24	35	35	+0	Down	-$1	06-30 10:46
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-30 10:25 UTC	4	$24	41	41	+0	Up	+$2	06-30 10:29
Will "East of Eden: Limited Series" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	5	$24	25	0	+25	Yes	+$1	10-09 13:21
Will "Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	5	$24	25	0	+25	Yes	+$2	10-04 13:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 00:17:55	Will "Clayface" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 10m?	Yes	SELL	13	10¢	$1	0x3cfa38…
10-31 19:04:48	Will "Clayface" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 14m?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x44b955…
10-31 13:20:57	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x1174ec…
10-31 13:18:37	Will "The One About Matthew Perry: Limited Series" be the top US Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x3cc5cd…
10-31 08:48:27	Will Wildwood win Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0xa5adae…
10-31 08:42:52	Will "Wildwood" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 11m?	Yes	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0xcfd029…
10-31 07:30:10	Will "You Can See Everything" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between $12M and $14M?	No	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0xb8b3ba…
10-30 23:02:42	Will "Clayface" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 14m?	No	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x4664c9…
10-30 08:27:58	Will "Clayface" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 10m?	Yes	BUY	13	23¢	$3	0xc23f78…
10-30 07:54:54	Will "You Can See Everything" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between $12M and $14M?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x207e9b…
10-29 15:39:25	Will "You Can See Everything" 3rd Weekend Box Office be at least $14M?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xcc7a95…
10-27 00:00:00	Will "FROM: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xa55a39…
10-26 13:13:41	Will "FROM: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xe651c1…
10-26 12:54:39	Will "Gladiator II" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x6309ae…
10-26 04:22:05	Will "Love Is Blind: Boston" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x1ac852…
10-26 01:14:57	Will "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least $21M?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0xdc9848…
10-25 18:08:48	Will "Love Is Blind: Boston" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x48571c…
10-25 16:05:11	Will "Klara and the Sun" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $2M?	Yes	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xa9499a…
10-24 17:47:17	Will "Animals" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	Yes	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0xf05ff3…
10-24 16:47:47	Will "Below: Limited Series" be the top global Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xdc6f80…
10-24 14:53:23	Will "Wildwood" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 10m?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0xa23e25…
10-24 14:50:21	Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $19.5M and $21M?	No	SELL	5	90¢	$5	0x47fca8…
10-24 14:12:53	Will "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least $21M?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xd190c6…
10-24 14:06:38	Will "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least $21M?	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xd343fa…
10-24 14:05:44	Will "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least $21M?	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x532add…
10-24 13:21:44	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the top US Netflix show this week?	No	SELL	15	83¢	$13	0xda075b…
10-24 09:40:39	Will "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least $21M?	No	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x7ccbcd…
10-24 04:41:53	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the top US Netflix show this week?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xd7a196…
10-24 04:06:03	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the top US Netflix show this week?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x0b90be…
10-24 04:05:24	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the top US Netflix show this week?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xe82208…
10-24 00:04:00	Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $19.5M and $21M?	No	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xe5d89a…
10-23 22:01:09	Will "Street Fighter" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between $8M and $11M?	Yes	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x5a7429…
10-23 19:09:18	Will "Street Fighter" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between $8M and $11M?	Yes	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x545d4b…
10-23 19:08:39	Will "Street Fighter" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between $8M and $11M?	Yes	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x8c66ba…
10-23 15:21:15	Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 28m and 31m?	No	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0x3882d1…
10-23 04:20:15	Will "Klara and the Sun" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $2M?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xf657ec…
10-22 21:06:18	Will "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least $11M?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xbd3c15…
10-22 11:45:00	Will "Klara and the Sun" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $3M and $4M?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xcae63f…
10-22 11:44:48	Will "Klara and the Sun" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $3M and $4M?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xf28e8e…
10-22 11:44:38	Will "Klara and the Sun" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $3M and $4M?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x8b3ff0…
10-21 07:20:18	Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 28m and 31m?	No	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0xf7ba3e…
10-20 21:24:17	Will "Wildwood" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?	No	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0xd5cba1…
10-20 19:11:27	Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 31m and 34m?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x9b1b71…
10-20 15:03:09	Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 37m?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x00527a…
10-20 14:27:20	Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 37m?	No	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x715422…
10-20 13:27:33	Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 34m and 37m?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x0030f1…
10-20 12:17:36	Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 34m and 37m?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xd3ee16…
10-20 12:17:18	Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 34m and 37m?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x1b5690…
10-20 07:54:32	Will "Wildwood" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 10m?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x218e79…
10-17 15:12:39	Will "Street Fighter" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 25m and 30m?	No	SELL	15	69¢	$11	0x47976f…
10-16 19:02:53	Will "Whalefall" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?	Yes	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0x9c8ab6…
10-16 09:51:25	Will "Street Fighter" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 25m and 30m?	No	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x5b1839…
10-16 09:49:30	Will "Street Fighter" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 25m and 30m?	No	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x6582cb…
10-16 07:06:24	Will "Street Fighter" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 25m and 30m?	No	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0xd9eed2…
10-15 18:48:05	Will "Street Fighter" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x18c949…
10-14 18:12:55	Will "Whalefall" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?	Yes	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x0b093a…
10-14 01:13:16	will trump say joe during his midterm rally in alaska october 13	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xd9c639…
10-14 01:00:34	Will Trump pardon anyone by October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xb0439e…
10-14 01:00:22	Will Trump pardon anyone by October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x58f0bd…
10-14 00:59:36	Will Trump pardon anyone by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x270b62…
10-14 00:54:27	will trump say fish during his midterm rally in alaska october 13	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x86abed…
10-13 17:14:33	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x9b7e0b…
10-13 16:33:12	Will Donald Trump visit Kansas before the midterms?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x3e3039…
10-13 13:50:47	Will "Street Fighter" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xe652d4…
10-13 13:49:47	Will "Street Fighter" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 45m?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x8f8db3…
10-13 13:49:31	Will "Street Fighter" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x2ccd5e…
10-13 13:46:38	will zacharia say america first during the next white house press briefing 20261012	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x4af9d8…
10-13 13:46:28	will zacharia say america first during the next white house press briefing 20261012	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x68cf5a…
10-13 13:30:43	Will "Preposterous" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of October 12?	Yes	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0xafae28…
10-13 13:22:35	will zacharia say go ahead during the next white house press briefing 20261012	Yes	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0xe395f0…
10-12 23:23:05	will trump say save america act during his midterm rally in alaska october 13	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x49b6f0…
10-12 23:12:09	will trump say pipeline during his midterm rally in alaska october 13	Yes	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x314899…
10-11 23:06:08	Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x4b048f…
10-10 21:08:00	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x221bca…
10-09 16:09:42	Will Trump say "Complex" this week?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xca8acf…
10-09 14:53:22	Will "Below: Limited Series" be the top global Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xca99c3…
10-09 13:21:33	Will "East of Eden: Limited Series" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xf0fc0b…
10-09 11:30:49	Will "East of Eden: Limited Series" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xb364f6…
10-09 11:30:40	Will "East of Eden: Limited Series" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xdb8459…
10-09 11:30:31	Will "East of Eden: Limited Series" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xbf43d8…
10-09 11:30:22	Will "East of Eden: Limited Series" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x280532…
10-09 10:36:40	will trump say transgender during his midterm rally in ohio october 12	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xfc3c44…
10-09 03:35:21	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xf2e706…
10-09 02:20:24	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x48b8d8…
10-09 02:19:11	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x6cabcf…
10-09 02:18:44	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xc97dbd…
10-08 16:32:02	Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m?	No	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x8ef809…
10-08 16:12:48	Will "You Can See Everything" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3m?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x1a7032…
10-08 11:22:51	Will Trump say "Depression" during his Midterm Rally in New York?	Yes	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xedbb74…
10-07 23:16:31	Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" 2+ times during his Midterm Rally in Texas?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x1a1817…
10-07 18:12:13	Will Trump say "Uber" in October?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xb837bd…
10-06 22:50:32	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x0cad1d…
10-06 19:57:45	Will Trump say "Sub" or "Submarine" during his remarks at Anduril Industries?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x805a01…
10-06 17:45:09	Will Trump say "Moon" or "Space" during his remarks at Anduril Industries?	Yes	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x9b5558…
10-05 15:49:31	Will the #1 global Netflix movie have between 24 and 28 million views this week?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xb4020b…
10-05 12:42:40	Will "The Widower: 'Til Death Do Us Part" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?	Yes	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x829bb3…
10-05 11:05:58	Will "The Widower: 'Til Death Do Us Part" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x9f8be2…
10-05 10:05:58	Will "The Widower: 'Til Death Do Us Part" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?	Yes	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x7cc4b8…
10-05 09:35:32	Will "The Widower: 'Til Death Do Us Part" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?	Yes	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0xa59a54…
10-05 09:35:02	Will "The Widower: 'Til Death Do Us Part" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?	Yes	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0xf8351b…