Quarrelsome-Pressure — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.20K

Unrealized P&L

-$6

Hit rate

52.5%

Resolved

Trades

443

lifetime

Volume

$12.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$28

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-02-13

last 10-22 20:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 58 days

Categories

Politics

66% 44% +$1,737

Other

30% 51% -$467

Tech

3% 50% -$14

Sports

0% 0% -$53

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

25 active days in 12wk • peak 26 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No		+100	$13	6¢	$6	-$6	10-21 01:38

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by September 30, 2026?	52	$1.3K	2,067	1,267	+800	No	-$375	09-22 00:39
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	105	$952	24,887	2,000	+22,887	No	-$778	02-28 04:00
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	2	$801	5,719	0	+5,719	Yes	+$4,918	02-28 05:01
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?	1	$776	0	1,760	-1,760	Yes	-$984	02-27 22:01
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	8	$381	1,350	0	+1,350	Yes	-$381	06-16 03:18
iran strike on israel by february 28	2	$371	200	200	+0	Yes	+$29	02-28 23:41
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	2	$370	200	200	+0	No	+$6	06-10 01:07
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	5	$360	200	200	+0	Yes	+$40	04-08 01:25
iran strike on qatar by february 28 2026 334	4	$319	200	200	+0	Yes	+$15	02-28 20:09
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	4	$307	200	200	+0	Yes	+$3	03-29 01:00
will the state of the union be 110 minutes or longer	4	$287	213	213	+0	No	+$15	02-25 02:57
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	3	$262	200	200	+0	No	+$2	03-03 13:44
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	3	$258	200	200	+0	Yes	-$23	03-05 01:46
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?	12	$250	9,991	0	+9,991	No	-$250	02-13 19:17
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	15	$195	624	624	+0	No	+$29	03-05 02:09
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	2	$195	200	0	+200	No	+$5	02-20 04:39
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 5 9144	1	$194	200	0	+200	No	+$6	06-04 03:48
another us government shutdown by february 14	7	$194	600	0	+600	No	-$194	02-14 20:58
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	1	$192	200	0	+200	No	+$8	06-06 05:25
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 8 2026	3	$187	6,736	0	+6,736	No	-$187	03-08 22:18
will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	4	$186	600	200	+400	No	-$70	03-21 08:26
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	1	$180	200	0	+200	No	+$20	04-14 02:48
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	1	$176	200	0	+200	No	+$24	03-29 01:55
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?	2	$176	200	0	+200	No	+$24	06-06 02:50
Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by September 15, 2026?	6	$172	1,451	723	+728	No	-$168	09-18 03:24
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	1	$171	300	0	+300	No	-$171	05-21 23:46
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7?	2	$161	196	0	+196	Yes	+$34	06-09 02:22
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1	$160	200	0	+200	No	+$40	05-22 05:18
will crude oil cl hit high 80 by end of march 113 384 528 915 639 242 637	4	$147	100	100	+0	Yes	+$1	03-03 07:53
will uae strike iran by march 31	3	$140	400	200	+200	No	-$44	03-07 23:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-22 20:08:47	Israel military action against Yemen by October 31?	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x9d1481…
10-22 00:57:14	Israel military action against Yemen by October 31?	Yes	SELL	42	6¢	$2	0x411784…
10-21 01:52:06	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	No	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x7eafb2…
10-21 01:38:32	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	100	13¢	$13	0xe6ed8e…
10-10 00:51:58	Israel military action against Yemen by October 31?	Yes	BUY	40	7¢	$3	0xd42e02…
10-10 00:49:34	Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0xc3a94e…
10-07 02:14:08	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	No	BUY	1,000	3¢	$29	0xcc8be7…
10-07 02:13:39	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?	No	BUY	1,000	4¢	$40	0x351afe…
10-05 11:26:50	saudi troops fighting in yemen by october 10 2026	Yes	BUY	95	3¢	$3	0x1fcd26…
10-05 07:10:26	saudi troops fighting in yemen by october 10 2026	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0xa75bf3…
10-04 18:37:31	saudi troops fighting in yemen by october 17 2026	Yes	BUY	54	8¢	$4	0xb233b7…
10-04 18:37:28	saudi troops fighting in yemen by october 17 2026	Yes	BUY	46	8¢	$4	0x370e4f…
10-03 23:22:52	Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?	Yes	BUY	40	12¢	$5	0xc4ebb1…
10-03 23:22:52	Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?	Yes	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0x7f88c0…
10-03 23:22:52	Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?	Yes	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0x0a802c…
10-02 13:14:32	Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	11¢	$2	0x5d5b36…
10-02 12:35:38	Israel military action against Yemen by October 31?	Yes	BUY	22	8¢	$2	0x9f51d4…
10-02 10:18:30	Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	82	11¢	$9	0xccebfe…
09-22 10:49:28	Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0x1772d7…
09-22 01:11:54	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 20?	Yes	SELL	6	1¢	$0	0xf0eb0c…
09-22 00:39:40	Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	202	5¢	$10	0x41281f…
09-21 01:23:56	Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0x2583a3…
09-20 08:35:53	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 20?	Yes	BUY	6	28¢	$2	0x9e90a2…
09-20 05:21:27	Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	9¢	$4	0xaa568b…
09-20 05:09:13	Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x939a70…
09-18 03:24:07	Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by September 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0x7211f1…
09-18 03:23:36	Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by September 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	523	0¢	$2	0x658428…
09-17 03:04:57	Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	8¢	$1	0xed5b61…
09-17 03:04:57	Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	89	8¢	$8	0x46e1ca…
09-17 03:00:48	Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by September 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0xf9882b…
09-12 09:32:55	Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by September 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	7¢	$1	0x25d70a…
09-12 07:26:54	Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by September 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0x584f6f…
09-12 04:03:33	Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	88	32¢	$28	0x445592…
09-12 04:01:30	saudi troops fighting in yemen by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	20	63¢	$13	0xbee631…
09-12 03:36:06	saudi troops fighting in yemen by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0x845917…
09-11 02:43:40	Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0x5ec953…
09-11 00:54:09	Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by September 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,431	12¢	$169	0xccfc69…
09-08 17:27:06	Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	41¢	$4	0x47dd02…
09-08 17:27:04	Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	91	41¢	$37	0x84072d…
09-07 18:46:00	Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	68	40¢	$27	0x1dd73f…
09-07 07:44:10	Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	40¢	$12	0x64307d…
09-05 08:23:21	next zptai glm 5pt4 released by september 30 2026 688	Yes	SELL	80	39¢	$31	0xad83e8…
09-04 10:33:18	next zptai glm 5pt4 released by september 30 2026 688	Yes	SELL	20	39¢	$8	0x4b581c…
09-02 05:44:15	Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	39¢	$12	0x0d1e24…
09-01 03:22:21	Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	114	39¢	$44	0xcedf05…
09-01 03:21:27	Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	146	37¢	$53	0x53102b…
09-01 03:12:13	will iran target an arab country by september 15 2026 20260831	Yes	BUY	100	69¢	$69	0x89bb84…
08-22 03:49:16	next zptai glm 5pt4 released by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	103	38¢	$39	0x1fd3bc…
08-22 03:47:03	next zptai glm 5pt4 released by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0xbbf938…
08-21 04:36:30	next zptai glm 5pt4 released by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	28	48¢	$13	0xa39e5e…
08-21 04:29:00	next zptai glm 5pt4 released by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	12	44¢	$5	0xa758f1…
08-21 04:23:04	next zptai glm 5pt4 released by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	29	45¢	$13	0x246966…
08-17 05:30:06	wti up or down on august 17 2026	Up	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0xbc95a5…
08-17 03:58:55	next zptai glm 5pt4 released by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	60	42¢	$25	0xd2a4ef…
08-17 03:54:37	next zptai glm 5pt4 released by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x137e4e…
08-17 03:40:43	next zptai glm 5pt4 released by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0xe6014f…
08-17 03:37:00	next zptai glm 5pt4 released by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	20	42¢	$8	0xa09587…
08-17 03:18:55	next zptai glm 5pt4 released by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	20	42¢	$8	0x271e5a…
08-17 02:29:00	next zptai glm 5pt4 released by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	6	43¢	$2	0xa4db57…
08-17 02:24:52	next zptai glm 5pt4 released by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x30a66a…
08-17 02:24:48	next zptai glm 5pt4 released by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	20	44¢	$9	0x392393…
08-17 02:11:21	next zptai glm 5pt4 released by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	13	42¢	$5	0xea411b…
08-17 02:11:18	next zptai glm 5pt4 released by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	33	42¢	$14	0x8b5961…
08-17 02:04:21	next zptai glm 5pt4 released by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	40	42¢	$17	0x2e4c3c…
08-17 01:55:31	next zptai glm 5pt4 released by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0xd29638…
08-17 01:54:58	next zptai glm 5pt4 released by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	20	43¢	$9	0x06e17e…
08-17 01:39:00	next zptai glm 5pt4 released by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	20	43¢	$9	0x2ee2e7…
08-17 01:33:55	next zptai glm 5pt4 released by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	20	43¢	$9	0xfd1e19…
08-17 01:33:46	next zptai glm 5pt4 released by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	20	43¢	$9	0x531751…
08-17 01:31:13	next zptai glm 5pt4 released by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	22	43¢	$9	0x9e0296…
08-17 01:29:52	next zptai glm 5pt4 released by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	40	43¢	$17	0x092e46…
08-17 01:28:15	next zptai glm 5pt4 released by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	120	43¢	$52	0x1eddc2…
08-17 01:23:33	next zptai glm 5pt4 released by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	73	43¢	$31	0xde2d53…
08-17 01:22:01	next zptai glm 5pt4 released by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	40	44¢	$18	0x122d95…
08-17 01:11:33	next zptai glm 5pt4 released by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	87	45¢	$39	0x30f8f4…
08-17 01:10:16	next zptai glm 5pt4 released by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	33	42¢	$14	0xa4658b…
08-17 01:09:49	next zptai glm 5pt4 released by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0xf194ed…
08-17 01:08:39	next zptai glm 5pt4 released by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	60	43¢	$26	0xa563a3…
08-16 22:03:58	next zptai glm 5pt4 released by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0x4358dc…
08-16 21:27:30	next zptai glm 5pt4 released by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	606	42¢	$255	0x5f7e71…
08-16 20:39:03	next zptai glm 5pt4 released by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0xe012bc…
08-16 19:29:28	next zptai glm 5pt4 released by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	63	41¢	$26	0x4a6a17…
08-16 19:13:03	next zptai glm 5pt4 released by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	20	42¢	$8	0x7f27d2…
08-16 19:11:57	next zptai glm 5pt4 released by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	55	44¢	$24	0x803f45…
08-16 18:38:28	next zptai glm 5pt4 released by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	416	43¢	$178	0xd5dfac…
08-16 17:54:25	next zptai glm 5pt4 released by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	155	32¢	$50	0x36115c…
07-16 12:34:37	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 24 2026 20260713152715081 211	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x83a792…
07-16 04:49:50	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	Yes	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0xe43890…
07-05 16:00:25	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	198	1¢	$1	0xda8d0e…
07-05 15:54:50	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	151	1¢	$1	0xc11bd8…
07-02 03:20:47	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	150	1¢	$1	0x73f10d…
06-26 22:51:26	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	178	2¢	$3	0x8c2954…
06-25 02:34:17	Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?	Yes	SELL	200	2¢	$4	0x276d0a…
06-23 15:39:11	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	678	1¢	$5	0x4d2f03…
06-23 02:26:23	Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?	Yes	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0xf12867…
06-23 01:06:47	Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?	Yes	BUY	129	18¢	$23	0xa82eda…
06-22 23:35:02	Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?	Yes	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0x4138c0…
06-22 23:34:59	Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?	Yes	BUY	35	18¢	$6	0x83da85…
06-22 22:17:35	Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?	Yes	BUY	30	18¢	$5	0x7bfea7…
06-22 22:11:23	Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?	Yes	BUY	100	48¢	$48	0x91c1e2…