Raw-Numeracy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$356

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

91.7%

Resolved

1,261

Trades

1,656

lifetime

Volume

$17.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-26

last 10-13 07:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 40 days

Categories

Crypto

98% 91% -$366

Other

1% 100% +$4

Sports

1% 100% +$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 76 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	3	$261	342	198	+144	Up	-$79	10-08 18:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	4	$175	93	93	+0	Down	+$3	10-08 18:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	2	$163	97	97	+0	Down	+$7	10-08 15:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	2	$159	85	85	+0	Down	+$3	10-08 15:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	2	$155	91	91	+0	Down	+$5	10-08 15:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	2	$140	112	112	+0	Down	+$8	10-08 15:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	2	$135	70	70	+0	Down	+$3	10-08 15:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	4	$127	73	73	+0	Down	+$5	10-10 10:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	4	$109	70	70	+0	Down	+$3	10-10 09:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	2	$106	62	62	+0	Up	+$6	10-08 11:22
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	1	$94	9,385	0	+9,385	Down	-$94	05-25 22:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	4	$94	9,385	0	+9,385	Down	-$94	05-25 22:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	2	$88	64	64	+0	Down	+$7	05-12 09:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	6	$83	86	75	+11	Down	+$2	10-09 11:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	5	$78	181	81	+100	Up	-$1	10-09 11:29
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 11?	2	$74	38	38	+0	No	+$2	05-11 16:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	2	$73	39	39	+0	Up	+$4	05-12 07:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	4	$71	53	53	+0	Down	+$6	10-09 11:03
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	2	$70	36	36	+0	Atlanta Braves	+$2	05-10 22:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 17:10 UTC	4	$69	49	49	+0	Down	+$2	10-04 17:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 17:45 UTC	3	$69	518	25	+493	Up	-$22	10-04 17:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 16:35 UTC	4	$65	43	43	+0	Up	+$1	10-04 16:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	4	$62	41	41	+0	Up	+$4	10-04 16:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	2	$62	37	37	+0	Down	+$4	10-10 09:52
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	1	$61	61	0	+61	Down	+$1	05-30 10:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	3	$60	61	0	+61	Down	+$1	06-01 09:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	2	$60	42	42	+0	Up	+$8	05-10 18:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	1	$59	61	0	+61	Down	+$2	05-22 14:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	4	$59	73	73	+0	Down	+$7	10-08 14:52
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 06:05 UTC	1	$59	59	0	+59	Up	+$1	06-04 06:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-13 07:12:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Up	SELL	19	5¢	$1	0xeb1c98…
10-13 07:02:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0xa81cf6…
10-13 07:00:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	SELL	21	51¢	$10	0x29cf66…
10-13 07:00:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	21	34¢	$7	0xa35b69…
10-13 06:58:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	SELL	9	85¢	$7	0x83de87…
10-13 06:56:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	9	80¢	$7	0x799046…
10-13 06:56:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	SELL	24	31¢	$7	0x10b60b…
10-13 06:55:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	24	29¢	$7	0x0273ed…
10-13 06:54:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	SELL	8	86¢	$7	0x5b60d4…
10-13 06:54:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	8	85¢	$7	0x10ec3d…
10-13 06:54:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	SELL	8	82¢	$6	0x32a824…
10-13 06:53:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x576edc…
10-13 06:53:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x286c83…
10-13 06:53:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	SELL	10	52¢	$5	0x675b0e…
10-13 06:51:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0xa5f2c2…
10-13 06:50:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	SELL	11	63¢	$7	0xa69af7…
10-13 06:50:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	11	65¢	$7	0x8a4f7d…
10-12 14:51:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	36	40¢	$15	0x3db0c4…
10-12 14:49:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	SELL	27	58¢	$16	0xab1544…
10-12 14:48:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	27	50¢	$14	0xd15c00…
10-12 14:47:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0x18f797…
10-12 14:45:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	SELL	24	67¢	$16	0xff91df…
10-12 14:45:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	24	62¢	$15	0xb31849…
10-12 14:44:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x2e57c7…
10-12 14:41:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	12	48¢	$6	0x7bcc9a…
10-12 14:40:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	14	44¢	$6	0x947f1a…
10-12 14:39:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	SELL	30	54¢	$16	0xafe2b7…
10-12 14:38:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0x349cef…
10-12 14:36:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	SELL	15	90¢	$13	0xfd2bae…
10-12 14:36:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x0f6158…
10-12 14:35:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	SELL	19	60¢	$11	0x31caf1…
10-12 14:35:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x8cf615…
10-12 14:30:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	SELL	20	61¢	$12	0xe491a4…
10-12 14:30:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xf359cd…
10-11 16:10:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x376d0b…
10-11 16:10:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xcee5a0…
10-11 16:10:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x7a52a1…
10-11 16:10:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xebca02…
10-11 16:08:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xd7cd23…
10-11 16:02:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-11 16:00 UTC	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xa1623a…
10-11 16:00:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xb69375…
10-11 15:57:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xbb59ca…
10-11 15:53:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x850707…
10-11 12:58:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0xeaebbf…
10-10 10:16:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	BUY	54	42¢	$23	0x08b0fc…
10-10 10:11:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	28	80¢	$22	0x87b9ce…
10-10 10:07:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	SELL	49	93¢	$46	0x6f8ccf…
10-10 10:07:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	49	89¢	$44	0xe668e5…
10-10 10:06:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	SELL	23	87¢	$20	0x31d88e…
10-10 10:06:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	23	73¢	$17	0xaeed9c…
10-10 10:02:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	SELL	53	38¢	$20	0xf127d0…
10-10 10:02:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	53	32¢	$17	0x853545…
10-10 10:01:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	SELL	9	24¢	$2	0xc57e9b…
10-10 10:01:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x5f67fa…
10-10 09:58:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	SELL	36	62¢	$22	0x55977b…
10-10 09:55:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	36	42¢	$15	0xdcfe53…
10-10 09:52:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	SELL	37	90¢	$33	0x308cec…
10-10 09:51:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	37	79¢	$29	0xe16874…
10-10 09:42:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	SELL	32	94¢	$30	0x7855cc…
10-10 09:41:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	32	87¢	$28	0xf551b5…
10-10 09:40:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	SELL	38	69¢	$26	0xd757f1…
10-10 09:40:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	38	66¢	$25	0x77ec7c…
10-10 09:39:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	SELL	28	95¢	$27	0x94a63f…
10-10 09:39:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	28	88¢	$25	0x25203b…
10-09 11:45:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	BUY	91	28¢	$26	0x0acea8…
10-09 11:44:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xfd8d7a…
10-09 11:36:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-09 11:35 UTC	Down	SELL	3	73¢	$2	0x154f2d…
10-09 11:36:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-09 11:35 UTC	Down	SELL	41	65¢	$27	0x8700ee…
10-09 11:36:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-09 11:35 UTC	Down	BUY	44	60¢	$26	0xdad825…
10-09 11:31:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Up	SELL	31	88¢	$27	0x868e4e…
10-09 11:30:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Up	BUY	31	50¢	$15	0xd41b12…
10-09 11:29:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x86eff2…
10-09 11:28:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	SELL	37	48¢	$18	0x77fac6…
10-09 11:25:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	37	53¢	$20	0x3f8a52…
10-09 11:25:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	SELL	44	48¢	$21	0x2df5f8…
10-09 11:25:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	44	44¢	$19	0xd001e7…
10-09 11:23:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x51979a…
10-09 11:21:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-09 11:20 UTC	Down	SELL	2	84¢	$2	0xb138f1…
10-09 11:21:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-09 11:20 UTC	Down	SELL	24	82¢	$19	0xb6afc5…
10-09 11:21:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-09 11:20 UTC	Down	BUY	26	77¢	$20	0x2ff7d2…
10-09 11:20:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-09 11:20 UTC	Up	SELL	49	43¢	$21	0x0dd001…
10-09 11:20:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-09 11:20 UTC	Up	BUY	49	39¢	$19	0x85f698…
10-09 11:16:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x226b36…
10-09 11:13:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-09 11:10 UTC	Up	SELL	25	6¢	$2	0x3dba47…
10-09 11:13:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-09 11:10 UTC	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x48f6eb…
10-09 11:05:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	SELL	39	55¢	$21	0x738ce4…
10-09 11:05:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	39	49¢	$19	0x24e7ad…
10-09 11:03:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	SELL	22	91¢	$20	0xab83fd…
10-09 11:02:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	22	83¢	$18	0xa24f9d…
10-09 11:01:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	SELL	31	60¢	$19	0x06ed34…
10-09 11:00:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	31	46¢	$14	0x2e6dc0…
10-09 10:57:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xc64eb3…
10-09 10:50:15	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-09 10:45 UTC	Down	SELL	30	55¢	$17	0x2899bf…
10-09 10:45:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	30	42¢	$13	0x564f88…
10-09 08:52:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	SELL	15	91¢	$14	0x6e9c00…
10-09 08:52:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	15	80¢	$12	0xf7d126…
10-09 08:03:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	SELL	11	98¢	$11	0x86a4b6…
10-09 08:03:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x8df947…
10-09 08:02:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	SELL	15	79¢	$12	0x30c2ca…
10-09 08:02:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x3532b3…