Large-Puzzle — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$244

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

65.6%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$6.11K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$64

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-28

last 06-02 09:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

78% 64% +$244

Politics

14% — —

Sports

5% — —

Other

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (12) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$527	958	0	+958	open	—	02-28 17:09
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$348	264	264	+0	open	—	05-07 11:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	1	$293	443	0	+443	Down	+$150	05-10 18:25
btc updown 5m 1772457900	2	$243	279	276	+3	open	—	03-02 13:27
eth updown 15m 1774500300	2	$240	192	190	+2	open	—	03-26 05:00
eth updown 15m 1776606300	2	$216	127	124	+2	open	—	04-19 14:00
eth updown 15m 1776632400	1	$213	343	0	+343	open	—	04-19 21:03
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	2	$191	215	215	+0	Up	$-83	05-10 18:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	2	$168	218	218	+0	open	—	06-02 07:44
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	1	$167	190	0	+190	Up	+$24	05-10 13:09
eth updown 15m 1776618900	1	$155	210	0	+210	open	—	04-19 17:17
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	4	$144	191	191	+0	Down	$-45	05-07 02:44
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5	2	$139	93	93	+0	open	—	05-22 03:22
eth updown 15m 1774458000	2	$137	91	90	+1	open	—	03-25 17:14
btc updown 5m 1772458200	2	$136	92	90	+1	open	—	03-02 13:35
btc updown 5m 1772458500	2	$131	118	117	+1	open	—	03-02 13:38
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	1	$131	254	0	+254	Down	+$123	05-07 02:48
bun stu dor 2026 04 04 exact score 0 2	2	$129	118	118	+0	open	—	04-04 18:30
eth updown 15m 1776610800	1	$123	158	0	+158	open	—	04-19 15:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	2	$122	198	198	+0	open	—	06-02 09:38
nba gsw bos 2026 03 18 spread home 12pt5	2	$120	81	81	+0	open	—	03-19 01:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	2	$118	133	133	+0	open	—	06-02 07:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	7	$110	143	0	+143	Down	$-110	05-10 18:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	2	$101	183	5	+178	Down	+$78	05-10 20:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	1	$100	156	0	+156	Down	+$56	05-10 17:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	1	$100	135	0	+135	Down	+$35	05-08 16:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	1	$100	149	0	+149	Down	$-100	05-10 17:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	1	$100	154	0	+154	Up	+$54	05-09 21:29
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	1	$100	154	0	+154	Down	+$54	05-07 12:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	1	$89	202	0	+202	open	—	05-25 03:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-02 09:38:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	SELL	198	14¢	$28	0x9c8dee…
06-02 09:19:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	198	47¢	$94	0xdf1fec…
06-02 09:09:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	42	26¢	$11	0x545fd9…
06-02 09:07:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	SELL	175	6¢	$11	0xc9b40b…
06-02 09:07:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	175	31¢	$55	0xa97da3…
06-02 08:03:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	4	84¢	$3	0xd77824…
06-02 08:03:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	49	84¢	$41	0xcedcd6…
06-02 08:03:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x5f8b2e…
06-02 07:52:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	SELL	133	39¢	$52	0xe82887…
06-02 07:48:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	133	50¢	$66	0x16d1d3…
06-02 07:44:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	SELL	218	33¢	$72	0x58cb07…
06-02 07:40:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	218	44¢	$96	0xc20f03…
06-02 07:32:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	61	49¢	$30	0x5896ce…
06-02 07:31:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	SELL	41	14¢	$6	0x50b9ff…
06-02 07:29:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	41	49¢	$20	0x4d1215…
06-02 05:14:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Down	BUY	137	51¢	$70	0xe48f98…
06-02 05:02:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	94	48¢	$45	0xc34ce7…
06-01 05:04:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x055f35…
06-01 05:04:11	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x558a77…
05-25 03:56:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	202	44¢	$89	0x76b12d…
05-25 03:22:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	89	49¢	$44	0xb83961…
05-25 03:14:45	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x8b4f04…
05-25 03:02:26	Spread: Spurs (-2.5)	Spurs	SELL	51	100¢	$51	0x62a0e4…
05-25 00:13:41	Spread: Spurs (-2.5)	Spurs	BUY	51	52¢	$26	0xee501c…
05-24 23:39:30	Solana Up or Down - May 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	BUY	37	73¢	$27	0xb00938…
05-24 16:34:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	BUY	27	49¢	$13	0xdbba4b…
05-23 11:54:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	88	51¢	$45	0x594f60…
05-22 03:22:11	Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5	No	SELL	93	100¢	$93	0x625d41…
05-21 17:29:30	Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5	No	BUY	93	50¢	$46	0x9c23f1…
05-21 17:15:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	43	62¢	$27	0x8acaa2…
05-10 20:03:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	SELL	5	13¢	$1	0x91f31d…
05-10 20:02:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	183	55¢	$100	0x19f38c…
05-10 19:35:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	120	50¢	$60	0xee4d3e…
05-10 19:24:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	128	47¢	$60	0x7e5d3d…
05-10 18:25:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	443	66¢	$293	0xb21324…
05-10 18:13:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Down	SELL	215	25¢	$54	0x26922e…
05-10 18:09:02	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	215	64¢	$137	0xa1c8e1…
05-10 18:05:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0xf8a9f2…
05-10 18:05:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	39	77¢	$30	0xb1c9d8…
05-10 18:05:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x770585…
05-10 18:05:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0x73f5bd…
05-10 18:05:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x591d63…
05-10 18:04:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	25	77¢	$19	0x25c582…
05-10 18:04:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	39	77¢	$30	0x1b0966…
05-10 17:55:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	156	64¢	$100	0x7d069c…
05-10 17:48:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	149	67¢	$100	0x6a83fd…
05-10 13:09:47	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	190	88¢	$167	0x491c09…
05-09 21:29:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	154	65¢	$100	0xe884fe…
05-08 16:38:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	BUY	135	74¢	$100	0x1e365a…
05-07 12:16:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	154	65¢	$100	0xe00331…
05-07 11:47:02	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	264	61¢	$161	0x2fec0c…
05-07 02:48:11	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	254	52¢	$131	0x2a4010…
05-07 02:44:27	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Down	SELL	77	10¢	$8	0xb0143c…
05-07 02:42:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	77	50¢	$39	0x07b541…
05-07 02:41:47	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Down	SELL	114	36¢	$42	0xf4b229…
05-07 02:20:05	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	114	49¢	$56	0x4d7533…
04-27 00:58:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	264	71¢	$187	0x0f009e…
04-19 21:03:06	eth updown 15m 1776632400	Up	BUY	343	62¢	$213	0xd53f9e…
04-19 20:14:24	eth updown 15m 1776629700	Down	BUY	14	44¢	$6	0x37097b…
04-19 17:17:44	eth updown 15m 1776618900	Up	BUY	210	74¢	$155	0x0bc34a…
04-19 15:07:24	eth updown 15m 1776610800	Down	BUY	158	78¢	$123	0xb41b04…
04-19 14:00:26	eth updown 15m 1776606300	Down	SELL	124	99¢	$123	0x4d5a75…
04-19 13:45:54	eth updown 15m 1776606300	Down	BUY	127	74¢	$93	0x021c16…
04-18 11:09:24	btc updown 15m 1776510900	Down	BUY	69	43¢	$30	0x0b3c44…
04-18 10:52:02	btc updown 15m 1776509100	Down	BUY	31	68¢	$21	0xcdc109…
04-18 08:47:00	btc updown 15m 1776502800	Down	BUY	22	50¢	$11	0x51569f…
04-18 08:46:12	btc updown 15m 1776501900	Down	SELL	44	26¢	$11	0x92d08d…
04-18 08:40:12	btc updown 15m 1776501900	Down	BUY	46	42¢	$19	0xb8dc07…
04-04 18:30:03	bun stu dor 2026 04 04 exact score 0 2	Yes	SELL	118	99¢	$117	0xc0406f…
04-04 16:21:49	bun stu dor 2026 04 04 exact score 0 2	Yes	BUY	118	10¢	$12	0xf0985e…
04-04 16:20:25	btc updown 15m 1775319300	Down	SELL	36	34¢	$12	0xbf6c49…
04-04 16:14:33	btc updown 15m 1775319300	Down	BUY	38	54¢	$20	0xbda72a…
03-26 05:07:49	eth updown 15m 1774501200	Up	BUY	745	5¢	$40	0xe9c0af…
03-26 05:00:11	eth updown 15m 1774500300	Down	SELL	190	100¢	$190	0x56872a…
03-26 04:50:13	eth updown 15m 1774500300	Down	BUY	192	26¢	$50	0x3ac0e9…
03-26 04:45:17	xrp updown 15m 1774499400	Up	SELL	51	99¢	$51	0x94f653…
03-26 04:28:13	xrp updown 15m 1774499400	Up	BUY	52	57¢	$30	0xc9c6a7…
03-26 04:20:45	eth updown 15m 1774498500	Down	SELL	96	31¢	$30	0x155c5a…
03-26 04:10:43	eth updown 15m 1774498500	Down	BUY	98	50¢	$49	0x44ff2b…
03-25 17:14:09	eth updown 15m 1774458000	Down	SELL	90	98¢	$88	0xdbaf59…
03-25 17:03:19	eth updown 15m 1774458000	Down	BUY	91	54¢	$49	0x643dc7…
03-19 01:56:05	nba gsw bos 2026 03 18 spread home 12pt5	Celtics	SELL	81	100¢	$81	0x62c093…
03-18 16:50:39	nba gsw bos 2026 03 18 spread home 12pt5	Celtics	BUY	81	48¢	$39	0x5f76a2…
03-18 16:45:05	btc updown 5m 1773852300	Down	BUY	61	49¢	$30	0x24680c…
03-18 16:43:55	btc updown 5m 1773852000	Down	SELL	53	20¢	$11	0x1c964a…
03-18 16:39:07	btc updown 5m 1773852000	Down	BUY	54	37¢	$20	0x293878…
03-18 16:34:07	btc updown 5m 1773851700	Down	BUY	41	49¢	$20	0xb3f624…
03-02 13:39:03	btc updown 5m 1772458800	Up	BUY	80	52¢	$41	0xf48ff4…
03-02 13:38:25	btc updown 5m 1772458500	Up	SELL	117	36¢	$42	0x3a236f…
03-02 13:37:37	btc updown 5m 1772458500	Up	BUY	118	76¢	$89	0xf5d383…
03-02 13:35:07	btc updown 5m 1772458200	Up	SELL	90	99¢	$89	0xc86e73…
03-02 13:28:03	btc updown 5m 1772458200	Up	BUY	92	51¢	$47	0x9908a5…
03-02 13:27:11	btc updown 5m 1772457900	Up	SELL	276	17¢	$47	0x660944…
03-02 13:25:53	btc updown 5m 1772457900	Up	BUY	279	70¢	$196	0x28c349…
02-28 17:09:35	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	769	53¢	$411	0xdc98a9…
02-28 15:52:37	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	188	61¢	$116	0x574845…