Lean-Pledge — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.75K

Unrealized P&L

-$6

Hit rate

68.8%

Resolved

212

Trades

397

lifetime

Volume

$6.47K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$16

Open exposure

$37

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-15

last 09-04 15:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 47 days

Categories

Crypto

54% 50% +$1,738

Other

26% 52% -$2

Politics

18% 50% +$24

Sports

1% 38% -$13

Tech

1% 100% +$3

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Yes	+12	$4	80¢	$9	+$5	08-04 22:00
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	No	+10	$8	83¢	$8	+$0	07-16 02:17
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	+15	$5	54¢	$8	+$3	07-17 21:30
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	+15	$9	46¢	$7	-$2	07-17 21:30
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Yes	+12	$6	20¢	$2	-$4	08-04 22:00
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	No	+10	$10	17¢	$2	-$8	07-16 02:17

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will solana dip to 130 january 12 18	26	$2.7K	2,811	2,811	-0	Yes	+$2,163	01-19 00:14
will solana reach 150 january 12 18	2	$775	2,501	2,501	+0	No	-$425	01-17 20:20
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota governor race in 2026?	4	$310	166	166	+0	open	—	07-09 23:31
Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?	2	$128	68	68	+0	open	—	07-09 23:32
Will the Republicans win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026?	2	$119	64	64	+0	open	—	07-18 08:28
Will Clay Jenkins win the 2026 Dallas County Judge election?	2	$100	115	0	+115	open	—	07-16 08:27
Will Ron Nirenberg win the 2026 Bexar County Judge election?	2	$81	45	45	+0	open	—	08-06 10:51
Will Cook Islands Party win the most seats in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?	1	$49	60	0	+60	Yes	+$11	07-18 15:04
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.5M and 7.6M in June?	7	$48	32	27	+5	No	+$2	07-12 05:13
Will Mark Keough win the 2026 Montgomery County Judge election?	5	$45	27	23	+4	open	—	07-09 04:30
Will JOLTS Job Openings be below 7.2M in June?	5	$39	22	17	+5	No	$0	07-12 05:13
Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 30m?	2	$38	20	20	+0	No	-$1	07-11 19:40
Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 25m?	2	$38	20	20	+0	Yes	-$1	07-11 19:40
Will Kimberly Yee be the Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction Republican nominee?	3	$37	52	0	+52	Yes	+$14	07-21 06:33
Will A'ja Wilson win the 2026 WNBA MVP award?	3	$34	37	11	+26	Yes	+$10	07-07 14:17
Will Eliott Rodriguez be the FL-27 Democratic nominee?	2	$33	37	0	+37	Yes	+$4	08-06 21:09
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.3M and 7.4M in June?	5	$33	22	17	+5	Yes	-$7	07-12 05:13
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in July?	4	$30	18	18	+0	No	-$1	07-11 17:45
Will BBL Esports win the EWC Valorant Tournament	2	$28	19	19	+0	No	$0	07-11 12:31
Will the Democrats win the Maine governor race in 2026?	2	$28	15	15	+0	open	—	07-10 22:14
Will NRG win the EWC Valorant Tournament	2	$27	19	19	+0	No	+$0	07-11 12:31
Will Robert Luna win the 2026 Los Angeles County Sheriff election?	1	$26	35	0	+35	open	—	07-20 15:29
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,264,000 and $1,284,000 on September 30?	2	$25	13	13	+0	No	$0	07-11 05:19
Will Patrick Johnstone win the 2026 New Westminster mayoral election?	2	$25	40	0	+40	No	-$25	08-28 08:18
Will “Slow Horses” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding drama series?	2	$25	13	13	+0	No	$0	07-11 04:09
Will “Paradise” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding drama series?	2	$25	13	13	+0	No	$0	07-11 04:09
Will Derry City FC win on 2026-07-16?	1	$24	25	0	+25	No	+$1	07-16 19:34
Will PFK CSKA Sofia win on 2026-07-16?	1	$24	25	0	+25	Yes	-$24	07-16 19:34
Will Darline Graham Nordone win Charleston County in the South Carolina Special Senate Primary runoff?	1	$24	30	0	+30	Yes	+$6	08-24 20:09
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be at least $1,284,000 on September 30?	2	$24	13	13	+0	No	-$2	07-11 05:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-04 15:50:37	Will Mark Sager win the 2026 West Vancouver mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0x6a5599…
09-04 15:50:37	Will Kirk LaPointe win the 2026 West Vancouver mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0x574f0a…
09-02 04:57:51	Will the Republicans win Collin County in the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0xcf7299…
09-02 04:57:51	Will the Democrats win Collin County in the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	56¢	$10	0x558dc0…
08-30 23:50:09	Will Kari Gares win the 2026 Vernon mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	12	31¢	$4	0x31ba74…
08-30 23:50:09	Will Victor Cumming win the 2026 Vernon mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	12	59¢	$7	0x1af4dc…
08-30 23:48:25	Will Victor Cumming win the 2026 Vernon mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	12	59¢	$7	0x675c75…
08-30 23:48:25	Will Kari Gares win the 2026 Vernon mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	13	30¢	$4	0x136fc9…
08-30 13:41:36	Will Harshan Ramadass win the 2026 Fernie mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xef6da5…
08-30 13:41:34	Will Kyle Hamilton win the 2026 Fernie mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0x718ed6…
08-30 12:24:27	AIK leading at halftime?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xf604b6…
08-29 17:20:00	Sport Benfica e Castelo Branco to win the second half?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x9aae93…
08-29 17:20:00	CD Fátima vs. Sport Benfica e Castelo Branco: Second half draw?	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x5c386f…
08-29 17:19:58	CD Fátima to win the second half?	No	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x51ae8d…
08-28 08:18:12	Will Patrick Johnstone win the 2026 New Westminster mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0xd31976…
08-28 08:18:12	Will Daniel Fontaine win the 2026 New Westminster mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x02e57e…
08-28 08:14:52	Will Daniel Fontaine win the 2026 New Westminster mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x7c170d…
08-28 08:14:52	Will Patrick Johnstone win the 2026 New Westminster mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x63e703…
08-26 17:43:13	Will Tala'ea El Gaish SC win on 2026-08-26?	No	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xbe4cc6…
08-26 17:43:13	Will Montakhab Suez Petrojet win on 2026-08-26?	No	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x7a230a…
08-26 17:43:13	Will Montakhab Suez Petrojet vs. Tala'ea El Gaish SC end in a draw?	No	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x725c08…
08-26 17:08:48	Will Zac de Vries win the 2026 Saanich mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0xf8ed28…
08-26 17:08:48	Will Karen Harper win the 2026 Saanich mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0xb5c9b4…
08-26 17:08:48	Will Rishi Sharma win the 2026 Saanich mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x8d1e6e…
08-26 12:32:46	Will Kari Gares win the 2026 Vernon mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0xd6bc0e…
08-26 12:32:46	Will Victor Cumming win the 2026 Vernon mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x5db3e9…
08-26 10:52:00	Will FUT Esports Win VCT EMEA Stage 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	33¢	$3	0xfd1b94…
08-26 10:52:00	Will Karmine Corp Win VCT EMEA Stage 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0x7b404c…
08-26 10:51:58	Will Team Liquid Win VCT EMEA Stage 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0xfd4e5e…
08-24 21:13:25	Will Frank Scarpitti win the 2026 Markham mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0xae8f8f…
08-24 21:13:25	Will Martin Ross win the 2026 Markham mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x056e39…
08-24 20:40:39	Will Jeff Teat win the 2026 PLL MVP award?	Yes	BUY	21	8¢	$2	0xb54f6c…
08-24 20:40:39	Will Michael Sowers win the 2026 PLL MVP award?	Yes	BUY	21	65¢	$14	0x487bff…
08-24 20:40:39	Will Brennan O'Neill win the 2026 PLL MVP award?	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0x445267…
08-24 20:40:39	Will Andrew McAdorey win the 2026 PLL MVP award?	Yes	BUY	21	8¢	$2	0x2f8966…
08-24 20:40:37	Will Connor Shellenberger win the 2026 PLL MVP award?	Yes	BUY	21	9¢	$2	0xdc86f9…
08-24 20:09:57	Will Darline Graham Nordone win Charleston County in the South Carolina Special Senate Primary runoff?	Yes	BUY	30	79¢	$24	0x8eaf27…
08-24 20:09:57	Will Ralph Norman win Charleston County in the South Carolina Special Senate Primary runoff?	Yes	BUY	30	17¢	$5	0x3e2db1…
08-24 12:29:06	Will Marty Quinn be the Oklahoma Commissioner of Insurance Republican nominee?	Yes	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x6d4a01…
08-24 12:29:06	Will Bob Sullivan be the Oklahoma Commissioner of Insurance Republican nominee?	Yes	BUY	11	79¢	$9	0x2b8bf3…
08-23 05:07:54	Will HB Torshavn vs. 07 Vestur Sorvagur end in a draw?	No	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0xd218d9…
08-23 05:07:54	Will HB Torshavn win on 2026-08-23?	No	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x8dc950…
08-23 05:07:54	Will 07 Vestur Sorvagur win on 2026-08-23?	No	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x14f3a1…
08-22 02:56:54	Will Ralph Norman win Lexington County in the South Carolina Special Senate Primary runoff?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0xe67e92…
08-22 02:56:54	Will Darline Graham Nordone win Lexington County in the South Carolina Special Senate Primary runoff?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x41e6f0…
08-21 16:58:57	Will Group C be the group of the EWC CS2 2026 Champion?	Yes	BUY	21	40¢	$8	0xe033ef…
08-21 16:58:57	Will Group A be the group of the EWC CS2 2026 Champion?	Yes	BUY	21	19¢	$4	0x6d86d2…
08-21 16:58:57	Will Group D be the group of the EWC CS2 2026 Champion?	Yes	BUY	21	17¢	$4	0x625ad6…
08-21 16:58:57	Will Group B be the group of the EWC CS2 2026 Champion?	Yes	BUY	21	12¢	$2	0x28b73a…
08-21 09:16:28	Will Robert Franklin be the Oklahoma Superintendent of Public Instruction Republican nominee?	Yes	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0xcda4bd…
08-21 09:16:28	Will James Taylor be the Oklahoma Superintendent of Public Instruction Republican nominee?	Yes	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0x18cde5…
08-19 11:04:33	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x7d422e…
08-19 11:04:31	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0xff7839…
08-19 08:22:30	Will Leonard Krog win the 2026 Nanaimo mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	30	74¢	$22	0x84d579…
08-19 08:22:30	Will Anne Marie Dryden win the 2026 Nanaimo mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	30	16¢	$5	0x504fe6…
08-15 21:38:10	Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-08-15?	No	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0xdbcb44…
08-15 21:38:10	Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-08-15?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xb4eed7…
08-14 23:41:31	Will Nic Zateslo be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?	Yes	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x5b8dec…
08-14 23:41:31	Will Yen Bailey be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?	Yes	BUY	8	31¢	$2	0x52d7ab…
08-14 23:41:30	Will Brice Barnes be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xa65a95…
08-14 23:41:30	Will Amanda Green be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?	Yes	BUY	8	27¢	$2	0x908db8…
08-14 10:42:31	Will Yen Bailey be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?	Yes	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0xfe60b9…
08-14 10:42:31	Will Amanda Green be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?	Yes	BUY	16	29¢	$5	0x71e3bd…
08-14 10:42:31	Will Nic Zateslo be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?	Yes	BUY	16	25¢	$4	0x65761a…
08-14 10:42:31	Will Brice Barnes be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?	Yes	BUY	16	8¢	$1	0x13e9c2…
08-13 06:19:15	Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0x50b5ca…
08-13 06:19:15	Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0x38a3b3…
08-12 01:14:58	Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-08-11?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xb9b2b5…
08-12 01:14:58	Will Columbus Crew win on 2026-08-11?	No	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x88d5bb…
08-12 01:14:58	Will Columbus Crew vs. Pumas de la UNAM end in a draw?	No	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x7e279d…
08-07 03:11:40	Will Jason Poulos be the MA-04 Democratic nominee?	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0xf8f299…
08-07 03:11:40	Will Jake Auchincloss be the MA-04 Democratic nominee?	Yes	BUY	21	90¢	$19	0x8ca7b8…
08-06 21:09:27	Will Eliott Rodriguez be the FL-27 Democratic nominee?	Yes	BUY	15	89¢	$13	0xdb1c81…
08-06 21:09:26	Will Robin Peguero be the FL-27 Democratic nominee?	Yes	BUY	15	8¢	$1	0xf45896…
08-06 19:42:30	Will Eliott Rodriguez be the FL-27 Democratic nominee?	Yes	BUY	22	89¢	$20	0x26e55e…
08-06 19:42:29	Will Robin Peguero be the FL-27 Democratic nominee?	Yes	BUY	22	8¢	$2	0x3f23b8…
08-06 10:51:30	Will Patrick Von Dohlen win the 2026 Bexar County Judge election?	Yes	SELL	45	4¢	$2	0x79a53a…
08-06 10:51:30	Will Ron Nirenberg win the 2026 Bexar County Judge election?	Yes	SELL	45	91¢	$41	0x1f3d1f…
08-06 00:25:44	Will Jaguares de Córdoba FC win on 2026-08-05?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xd34c8b…
08-06 00:25:44	Will CD La Equidad Seguros win on 2026-08-05?	No	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xa2f6e2…
08-05 03:37:47	Will Abdul El-Sayed win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	Yes	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x5c3189…
08-05 03:37:45	Will Haley Stevens win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xd24746…
08-04 22:00:54	Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	38¢	$4	0xdf4ad0…
08-04 22:00:53	Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	55¢	$6	0x56e20d…
08-04 21:08:14	Will Amanda Green be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?	Yes	BUY	21	33¢	$7	0xe6ca20…
08-04 21:08:14	Will Nic Zateslo be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?	Yes	BUY	21	9¢	$2	0x9ca01c…
08-04 21:08:14	Will Yen Bailey be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?	Yes	BUY	21	44¢	$9	0x99b33a…
08-04 21:08:14	Will Brice Barnes be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?	Yes	BUY	21	9¢	$2	0x0e56e8…
08-03 17:06:54	Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-08-03?	No	SELL	8	0¢	$0	0xa50a25…
08-03 17:06:54	Will FK Kudrivka win on 2026-08-03?	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x2774be…
08-03 16:19:44	Will FK Kudrivka win on 2026-08-03?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xc1a547…
08-03 16:19:44	Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-08-03?	No	BUY	8	28¢	$2	0x684986…
08-01 21:36:11	Will CD Universidad Catolica del Ecuador win on 2026-08-01?	No	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x9b8dc9…
08-01 21:36:11	Will CD Tecnico Universitario win on 2026-08-01?	No	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x6f29aa…
08-01 21:36:11	Will CD Universidad Catolica del Ecuador vs. CD Tecnico Universitario end in a draw?	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x675f08…
08-01 14:17:33	Will IBV Vestmannaeyjar win on 2026-08-01?	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xe4ce46…
08-01 14:17:33	Will Fram Reykjavik win on 2026-08-01?	No	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xd7383e…
08-01 14:17:32	Will IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs. Fram Reykjavik end in a draw?	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xc71fb5…
08-01 10:08:48	LGD Gaming to win 2-0?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x09f860…
08-01 10:08:47	BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming: Draw (1-1)?	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xa9d1bd…