Immediate-Recession — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$52

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

30.8%

Resolved

Trades

204

lifetime

Volume

$1.43K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-02

last 07-19 19:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

83% 4% $-52

Sports

15% — —

Other

2% — —

Politics

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 99 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	20	$274	225	180	+45	open	—	05-02 16:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	2	$247	239	239	+0	open	—	05-21 15:00
ufc max1 con 2026 07 11 holloway win by ko tko	2	$111	72	72	+0	open	—	07-12 03:45
ufc max1 con 2026 07 11 mcgregor win by ko tko	2	$92	200	200	+0	open	—	07-12 03:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	2	$87	80	80	+0	open	—	05-02 14:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	13	$52	550	50	+500	open	—	05-02 17:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	3	$40	71	71	+0	open	—	05-02 16:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	2	$31	23	23	+0	Down	+$14	05-07 14:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	1	$25	114	0	+114	open	—	05-02 15:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	5	$25	87	0	+87	open	—	05-03 14:59
btc updown 5m 1783824900	2	$24	21	21	+0	open	—	07-12 03:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	8	$24	45	32	+13	open	—	05-02 17:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1PM ET	2	$22	50	50	+0	open	—	05-02 17:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	1	$18	196	0	+196	open	—	05-02 16:08
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	1	$17	41	0	+41	open	—	07-19 19:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	3	$16	257	0	+257	open	—	05-21 15:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	1	$14	168	0	+168	Down	$-14	05-12 19:18
btc updown 5m 1783291500	2	$12	169	12	+157	open	—	07-05 22:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	3	$12	367	0	+367	open	—	05-02 15:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	2	$12	81	0	+81	open	—	05-23 10:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	2	$10	25	0	+25	open	—	05-03 14:39
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	1	$10	127	0	+127	open	—	05-23 21:09
btc updown 5m 1783826100	1	$10	128	0	+128	open	—	07-12 03:19
ufc pad ben8 2026 07 11 pimblett win by ko tko	1	$10	45	0	+45	open	—	07-12 03:10
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 3?	2	$10	211	0	+211	open	—	05-02 17:51
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	2	$10	143	0	+143	open	—	05-03 14:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	1	$10	123	0	+123	open	—	05-21 14:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	3	$9	31	4	+27	open	—	05-02 16:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	1	$9	36	0	+36	open	—	05-02 14:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	1	$8	34	0	+34	Up	$-8	05-07 13:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-19 19:39:48	btc updown 5m 1784489700	Up	BUY	24	8¢	$2	0xa6d1d1…
07-19 19:35:54	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	41	41¢	$17	0xfbc5c1…
07-15 21:08:32	btc updown 5m 1784149500	Up	BUY	41	7¢	$3	0x2fb57a…
07-12 03:48:11	btc updown 5m 1783827900	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x095449…
07-12 03:45:22	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11 holloway win by ko tko	Yes	SELL	72	100¢	$72	0xc657e9…
07-12 03:25:38	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11 holloway win by ko tko	Yes	BUY	72	55¢	$40	0xeb9edb…
07-12 03:22:56	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11 mcgregor win by ko tko	Yes	SELL	200	21¢	$42	0x28828f…
07-12 03:20:59	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11 win by submission	Yes	BUY	32	13¢	$4	0x6bcdb8…
07-12 03:19:04	btc updown 5m 1783826100	Down	BUY	128	8¢	$10	0x16d0e3…
07-12 03:14:10	btc updown 5m 1783825800	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x3fcc2f…
07-12 03:13:20	btc updown 5m 1783825800	Down	BUY	75	4¢	$3	0x31de12…
07-12 03:10:11	ufc pad ben8 2026 07 11 pimblett win by ko tko	Yes	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0x0b92aa…
07-12 03:00:10	btc updown 5m 1783824900	Down	SELL	21	99¢	$21	0x31dcfc…
07-12 02:58:01	btc updown 5m 1783824900	Down	BUY	21	14¢	$3	0xd2f4bb…
07-12 02:54:58	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11 mcgregor win by ko tko	Yes	BUY	200	25¢	$50	0xe5c4ba…
07-12 01:03:35	btc updown 5m 1783818000	Down	BUY	75	4¢	$3	0x2d57cb…
07-12 00:54:50	btc updown 5m 1783817400	Down	BUY	300	1¢	$3	0x007cb5…
07-12 00:19:43	btc updown 5m 1783815300	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x8eef64…
07-12 00:13:26	btc updown 5m 1783815000	Down	BUY	60	5¢	$3	0x108eaf…
07-12 00:12:34	btc updown 5m 1783815000	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xd19e35…
07-11 23:43:40	btc updown 5m 1783813200	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x2c7bcd…
07-05 22:59:19	btc updown 5m 1783292100	Down	BUY	25	3¢	$1	0xd2bff2…
07-05 22:49:05	btc updown 5m 1783291500	Down	SELL	12	33¢	$4	0xed339a…
07-05 22:48:02	btc updown 5m 1783291500	Down	BUY	169	5¢	$8	0x781704…
07-05 22:44:26	btc updown 5m 1783291200	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x3b0866…
07-05 22:43:41	btc updown 5m 1783291200	Up	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0xa8c5c3…
07-05 22:40:02	btc updown 5m 1783290900	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xb207bb…
07-05 22:32:53	xrp updown 5m 1783290600	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x0b6164…
05-23 21:09:32	Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	Rico	BUY	127	8¢	$10	0x366215…
05-23 10:40:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	SELL	4	23¢	$1	0x7b8c6d…
05-23 10:40:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xaf84c5…
05-23 10:34:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	58	3¢	$2	0x5c0d3a…
05-23 10:34:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0xfac615…
05-21 23:07:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	39	5¢	$2	0x027e22…
05-21 23:04:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x550b7d…
05-21 22:59:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x066f6a…
05-21 22:54:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x2a6de4…
05-21 22:43:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xb9bed0…
05-21 22:42:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x7c171c…
05-21 22:38:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x6930bc…
05-21 22:34:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xd3352c…
05-21 22:29:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x165a5d…
05-21 22:24:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x2eee35…
05-21 22:18:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x84889d…
05-21 15:31:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x4f4f01…
05-21 15:08:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xd04b52…
05-21 15:04:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	150	2¢	$3	0x5b2060…
05-21 15:04:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	69	14¢	$10	0x0b7a4d…
05-21 15:03:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	38	8¢	$3	0xa0b34d…
05-21 15:00:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	SELL	239	99¢	$237	0x41dbd7…
05-21 14:59:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	239	4¢	$10	0x8a6352…
05-21 14:54:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xf09c96…
05-21 14:53:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	12	26¢	$3	0xd98232…
05-21 14:49:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x462bc1…
05-21 14:41:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	123	8¢	$10	0x3fe2d5…
05-21 14:38:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x9aed91…
05-12 19:18:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	168	8¢	$14	0xcba7ac…
05-12 19:14:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x84799b…
05-12 19:10:35	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	131	1¢	$1	0x54fccf…
05-12 19:08:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0x6b2ee5…
05-12 19:08:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x40cb60…
05-07 15:08:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x1fe015…
05-07 15:08:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x1a9da0…
05-07 14:57:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0xb8edfa…
05-07 14:56:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x19b184…
05-07 14:53:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	29	7¢	$2	0xaa9568…
05-07 14:49:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x116fc2…
05-07 14:48:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	6	20¢	$1	0x97a3f1…
05-07 14:44:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xf74d8d…
05-07 14:38:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x030a64…
05-07 14:33:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x3ea4b2…
05-07 14:32:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x44f719…
05-07 14:29:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xe3cdb5…
05-07 14:18:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x741322…
05-07 14:17:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xeb597f…
05-07 14:12:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x3fd7e3…
05-07 14:12:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xa4a797…
05-07 14:09:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x4d2a52…
05-07 14:09:01	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0xaecd05…
05-07 14:05:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0xe1b30b…
05-07 14:04:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	23	38¢	$9	0x4e5559…
05-07 13:58:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	34	24¢	$8	0xe7b4ec…
05-07 13:52:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	60	5¢	$3	0xd622ec…
05-07 13:48:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	18	5¢	$1	0x11f1c6…
05-07 13:44:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x6c8d52…
05-04 22:18:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	33	9¢	$3	0x998c26…
05-04 22:13:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xb2df3b…
05-04 22:06:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xe8d3d0…
05-04 22:02:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Down	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0x122078…
05-03 15:01:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xdaf825…
05-03 15:01:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x439b0e…
05-03 14:59:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0xef1ff8…
05-03 14:59:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xebea70…
05-03 14:59:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xb361b0…
05-03 14:59:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x19bc6d…
05-03 14:59:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0xbc3c14…
05-03 14:52:46	Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	113	4¢	$5	0x7b3649…
05-03 14:50:46	Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x3c3862…
05-03 14:48:32	Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0xd8a4c4…
05-03 14:47:16	Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x2456c2…