Winding-Intuition — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$289

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

84.7%

Resolved

Trades

142

lifetime

Volume

$1.50K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-18

last 07-08 13:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Crypto

90% 88% +$86

Other

10% — —

Politics

1% 100% +$203

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

52 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	2	$110	12,322	+12,322	open	—	05-11 18:38
btc updown 15m 1780923600	1	$37	69	+69	open	—	06-08 13:00
btc updown 15m 1781011800	1	$33	68	+68	open	—	06-09 13:30
btc updown 15m 1780579800	1	$33	64	+64	open	—	06-04 13:30
xrp updown 15m 1780821000	1	$32	85	+85	open	—	06-07 08:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	1	$32	54	+54	Up	+$22	05-11 13:00
btc updown 15m 1781098200	1	$30	90	+90	open	—	06-10 13:30
eth updown 15m 1780689600	1	$29	54	+54	open	—	06-05 20:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	1	$28	57	+57	open	—	06-01 13:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	1	$27	85	+85	open	—	06-03 13:30
btc updown 15m 1781184600	1	$27	50	+50	open	—	06-11 13:30
xrp updown 15m 1781425800	1	$26	65	+65	open	—	06-14 08:30
btc updown 15m 1781616600	1	$26	67	+67	open	—	06-16 13:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	1	$26	66	+66	open	—	05-18 13:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	1	$25	26	+26	open	—	05-21 15:23
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	1	$25	52	+52	open	—	05-31 08:30
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	1	$25	25	+25	open	—	05-30 11:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	1	$25	45	+45	open	—	05-14 13:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	1	$25	32	+32	open	—	05-21 14:18
eth updown 15m 1781294400	1	$24	45	+45	open	—	06-12 20:00
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	1	$24	40	+40	open	—	05-29 20:00
btc updown 15m 1781528400	1	$24	51	+51	open	—	06-15 13:00
eth updown 15m 1781703000	1	$23	37	+37	open	—	06-17 13:30
btc updown 15m 1781703000	1	$23	39	+39	open	—	06-17 13:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	1	$23	56	+56	open	—	05-25 13:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	1	$23	50	+50	open	—	05-19 13:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	1	$23	50	+50	open	—	05-21 15:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	1	$22	35	+35	open	—	05-28 13:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	1	$22	39	+39	Up	$-22	05-12 13:30
xrp updown 15m 1782030600	1	$21	33	+33	open	—	06-21 08:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-08 13:30:13	eth updown 15m 1783517400	Down	BUY	16	45¢	$7	0x85e391…
07-08 13:30:11	btc updown 15m 1783517400	Down	BUY	17	42¢	$7	0x1b6aae…
07-07 13:30:07	btc updown 15m 1783431000	Down	BUY	16	47¢	$8	0x0a20ae…
07-06 13:00:41	btc updown 15m 1783342800	Up	BUY	18	44¢	$8	0x77f644…
07-05 08:30:28	xrp updown 15m 1783240200	Up	BUY	14	54¢	$8	0x8bfacd…
07-03 20:00:25	eth updown 15m 1783108800	Up	BUY	14	54¢	$7	0x03f784…
07-02 13:30:17	btc updown 15m 1782999000	Down	BUY	12	64¢	$8	0x8f0680…
07-01 13:30:43	eth updown 15m 1782912600	Down	BUY	11	81¢	$9	0xdf06fe…
07-01 13:30:25	btc updown 15m 1782912600	Down	BUY	11	75¢	$9	0xe9d46d…
06-22 13:00:31	btc updown 15m 1782133200	Up	BUY	73	26¢	$19	0x140ccc…
06-21 08:30:07	xrp updown 15m 1782030600	Up	BUY	33	64¢	$21	0x864cd1…
06-19 20:00:32	eth updown 15m 1781899200	Up	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0x7f53af…
06-18 13:30:26	btc updown 15m 1781789400	Down	BUY	31	60¢	$19	0xdab5a7…
06-17 13:30:19	eth updown 15m 1781703000	Down	BUY	37	64¢	$23	0x5c2dc7…
06-17 13:30:17	btc updown 15m 1781703000	Down	BUY	39	60¢	$23	0xeb5ff7…
06-16 13:30:13	btc updown 15m 1781616600	Down	BUY	67	39¢	$26	0xede2e6…
06-15 13:00:30	btc updown 15m 1781528400	Up	BUY	51	46¢	$24	0xe480d3…
06-14 08:30:27	xrp updown 15m 1781425800	Up	BUY	65	40¢	$26	0xb52ef0…
06-12 20:00:22	eth updown 15m 1781294400	Up	BUY	45	54¢	$24	0x18abbf…
06-11 13:30:43	btc updown 15m 1781184600	Down	BUY	50	55¢	$27	0x1bc590…
06-10 18:30:54	eth updown 15m 1781116200	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xa7a93b…
06-10 13:30:27	btc updown 15m 1781098200	Down	BUY	90	33¢	$30	0xf86677…
06-09 13:30:19	btc updown 15m 1781011800	Down	BUY	68	49¢	$33	0x2dff24…
06-08 13:00:15	btc updown 15m 1780923600	Up	BUY	69	54¢	$37	0xb3f293…
06-07 08:30:30	xrp updown 15m 1780821000	Up	BUY	85	37¢	$32	0x8e7adf…
06-05 20:00:22	eth updown 15m 1780689600	Up	BUY	54	54¢	$29	0x9f9989…
06-04 13:30:15	btc updown 15m 1780579800	Down	BUY	64	51¢	$33	0xdec439…
06-03 13:30:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	85	32¢	$27	0xf4d751…
06-01 13:00:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	57	49¢	$28	0xe95984…
05-31 08:30:09	XRP Up or Down - May 31, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	52	48¢	$25	0x8b9140…
05-30 11:39:10	XRP Up or Down - May 30, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xbac801…
05-29 20:00:43	Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	40	60¢	$24	0x761c2b…
05-28 13:30:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	35	63¢	$22	0x303431…
05-27 13:30:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	39	47¢	$19	0xda898d…
05-27 13:30:16	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	37	50¢	$19	0x3f051a…
05-26 13:30:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	46	45¢	$21	0xa946af…
05-25 13:00:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	56	41¢	$23	0x4dd22f…
05-21 15:30:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	50	46¢	$23	0xc61045…
05-21 15:23:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	26	96¢	$25	0x6769b1…
05-21 14:18:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	32	77¢	$25	0x61ace9…
05-20 13:30:31	Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	42	49¢	$21	0x050b13…
05-20 13:30:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	41	50¢	$21	0xf312e3…
05-19 13:30:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	50	46¢	$23	0x25decc…
05-18 13:00:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	66	39¢	$26	0x481a08…
05-16 17:27:36	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,429	1¢	$10	0xedfb9e…
05-14 13:30:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	45	55¢	$25	0xe775d0…
05-13 13:30:50	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	50	39¢	$20	0x800cd9…
05-13 13:30:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	42	47¢	$20	0x10a63b…
05-12 13:30:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	39	56¢	$22	0x86cfd6…
05-12 03:40:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	167	12¢	$20	0x1d4629…
05-11 18:38:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	12,183	1¢	$100	0xfd2c13…
05-11 13:00:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	54	59¢	$32	0xa8f4cc…
05-07 14:45:56	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	213	5¢	$10	0x687b13…
05-07 14:45:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	139	7¢	$10	0x031f53…
05-07 13:30:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0xa5afe5…
05-06 13:30:30	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	18	53¢	$10	0x456baf…
05-06 13:30:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	18	54¢	$10	0xd77aa4…
05-05 13:30:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	14	65¢	$9	0xd43d71…
04-30 13:30:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	17	61¢	$10	0x23d04f…
04-29 13:30:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	13	62¢	$8	0x01bc3d…
04-29 13:30:12	Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0xa37461…
04-28 14:19:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0xc668a5…
04-27 13:00:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	15	52¢	$8	0x2fbee6…
04-26 02:00:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x56e27c…
04-26 01:35:24	Solana Up or Down - April 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xa83216…
04-26 01:20:22	Solana Up or Down - April 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x69137e…
04-26 01:20:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x5e01e2…
04-26 00:10:18	Solana Up or Down - April 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x315bb2…
04-25 23:25:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x9a224b…
04-25 16:15:34	Solana Up or Down - April 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x56361b…
04-25 16:15:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x54b7cd…
04-25 15:00:22	XRP Up or Down - April 25, 11AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xc047df…
04-25 13:00:12	Solana Up or Down - April 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x1bd03a…
04-25 12:25:32	Solana Up or Down - April 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x3c58b7…
04-25 12:00:30	Solana Up or Down - April 25, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xdd23aa…
04-25 11:30:26	Solana Up or Down - April 25, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x30632f…
04-23 14:36:24	eth updown 15m 1776954600	Down	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0x4d6b9b…
04-23 14:22:14	btc updown 15m 1776953700	Down	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x647270…
04-23 14:20:30	btc updown 5m 1776954000	Down	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x5bcd2a…
04-23 13:40:42	btc updown 5m 1776951600	Down	BUY	18	52¢	$9	0xddc988…
04-23 13:35:08	btc updown 5m 1776951300	Down	BUY	21	49¢	$10	0xa5efb6…
04-23 13:30:04	btc updown 5m 1776951000	Down	BUY	23	49¢	$11	0xb2cbe3…
04-23 03:31:02	eth updown 5m 1776915000	Down	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x582e9f…
04-22 20:17:58	btc updown 5m 1776888900	Down	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xcca00f…
04-22 20:17:30	btc updown 5m 1776888900	Down	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x6beab7…
04-22 20:16:24	btc updown 5m 1776888900	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x236aa7…
04-12 19:02:25	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	BUY	241	3¢	$7	0xe78d42…
03-18 21:08:35	btc updown 5m 1773867900	Down	BUY	2	17¢	$0	0xe9d86e…
03-18 21:05:59	btc updown 5m 1773867900	Down	BUY	1	29¢	$0	0x0e6a1b…
03-18 21:00:13	btc updown 5m 1773867600	Up	BUY	1	34¢	$0	0xf835c1…
03-18 20:58:27	btc updown 5m 1773867300	Up	BUY	2	27¢	$0	0x55d91d…
03-18 20:30:39	btc updown 5m 1773865800	Up	BUY	1	34¢	$0	0x6a998d…
03-18 20:27:33	btc updown 5m 1773865500	Down	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0xe5566e…
03-18 20:23:25	btc updown 5m 1773865200	Down	BUY	2	16¢	$0	0x484ae6…
03-18 20:17:37	btc updown 5m 1773864900	Down	BUY	2	10¢	$0	0x15c79f…
03-18 20:11:29	btc updown 5m 1773864600	Up	BUY	1	29¢	$0	0xb222da…
03-18 20:06:13	btc updown 5m 1773864300	Up	BUY	2	11¢	$0	0x396a4d…
03-18 19:43:05	btc updown 5m 1773862800	Up	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0x11eba6…
03-18 19:25:57	btc updown 5m 1773861900	Up	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0x78280c…
03-18 19:21:47	btc updown 5m 1773861600	Up	BUY	2	12¢	$0	0x7c4650…