Grumpy-Calculus — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$430

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

25.2%

Resolved

421

Trades

584

lifetime

Volume

$1.28K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-26

last 11-05 08:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 123 days

Categories

Other

64% 33% -$172

Sports

13% 31% -$66

Crypto

12% 24% -$81

Politics

11% 25% -$111

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

51 active days in 12wk • peak 28 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	15	$91	23,452	0	+23,452	No	-$91	04-04 06:32
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	19	$61	254	254	+0	No	-$11	06-23 03:33
will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	16	$27	924	0	+924	No	-$27	04-05 09:42
Valorant: FUT Esports vs BBL Esports - Map 1 Winner	9	$20	73	0	+73	BBL Esports	-$20	05-30 19:30
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	8	$20	39	0	+39	Down	-$20	05-15 03:55
will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	5	$14	28	22	+6	Yes	+$1	03-04 13:53
nhl chi edm 2026 04 02	2	$10	45	0	+45	Oilers	-$10	04-03 03:10
nba chi phi 2026 03 25	2	$10	31	0	+31	76ers	-$10	03-25 04:27
will one battle after another win best film editing at the 98th academy awards	3	$10	20	20	+0	Yes	$0	03-04 00:12
will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	4	$10	7	7	+0	Yes	$0	03-10 16:23
will sinners win best cinematography at the 98th academy awards	4	$10	25	25	+0	Yes	$0	03-04 00:15
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 2, 2026?	6	$9	292	0	+292	No	-$9	04-05 22:52
will paul thomas anderson win best director at the 98th academy awards	5	$9	62	60	+2	Yes	-$1	03-04 00:17
val adg srb 2026 03 31	3	$9	15	0	+15	Azure Dragon Gaming	-$4	03-31 00:33
lol navi mkoi 2026 03 28	3	$9	27	0	+27	Natus Vincere	+$18	03-25 14:25
will amy madigan win best supporting actress at the 98th academy awards	2	$9	9	9	+0	Yes	-$1	03-10 17:25
saudi arabia military action against yemen by april 30	4	$9	51	0	+51	No	-$9	04-03 23:46
bitcoin above 62k on march 9	4	$9	56	50	+6	Yes	-$1	03-04 00:17
will sinners win best film editing at the 98th academy awards	2	$9	62	62	+0	No	-$1	03-10 16:23
will ph win the most seats in the 2026 colombian chamber of representatives election	5	$9	31	31	+0	Yes	-$1	03-04 00:17
ufc tre3 aza3 2026 04 04 go the distance	1	$9	26	0	+26	No	-$9	04-03 23:11
will plc win the most seats in the 2026 colombian chamber of representatives election	5	$8	50	50	+0	No	-$2	03-04 00:17
will one battle after another win best cinematography at the 98th academy awards	2	$8	12	12	+0	No	-$2	03-10 16:23
crint gbr ind 2026 03 05	1	$8	22	0	+22	India	-$8	03-02 17:18
fif mex prt 2026 03 28 prt	2	$8	18	0	+18	No	-$8	03-26 23:14
ethereum above 1700 on march 9	5	$7	56	50	+6	Yes	-$3	03-04 00:16
will crude oil cl settle at 85 90 in march	2	$7	8	0	+8	No	+$1	03-26 16:36
ethereum above 1600 on march 9	4	$7	83	80	+3	Yes	-$3	03-04 00:16
solana above 70 on march 9	3	$6	100	60	+40	Yes	-$4	03-04 04:30
val shi mk 2026 03 29	2	$6	9	0	+9	Melser Kindergarten	-$6	03-29 16:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 08:56:51	Jacksonville State Gamecocks vs. South Alabama Jaguars	South Alabama Jaguars	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x62d74f…
11-02 14:13:31	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A	FURIA	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x6912ed…
11-02 12:55:07	Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group B	TYLOO	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x3ee65f…
11-02 08:41:27	Counter-Strike: Legacy vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A	B8	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x6e4d75…
11-02 06:28:25	cs2 mglz hero 2026 11 02	Heroic	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xa1d9ef…
11-01 08:33:30	Counter-Strike: Heroic vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A	B8	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xcde60d…
10-29 06:23:10	Valorant: KeepBest Gaming vs Unsettled Resentment (BO3) - VCT Threshold China Week 2	Unsettled Resentment	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x89a0b5…
10-28 20:19:05	Valorant: Any Questions Gaming vs FunPlus Phoenix (BO3) - VCT Threshold China Week 2	Any Questions Gaming	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x552301…
10-24 12:41:18	Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries	Atlanta Dream	BUY	5	51¢	$2	0x8156e4…
10-24 00:57:05	Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A	TheMongolz	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xe857d5…
10-22 23:48:09	Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Eintracht Frankfurt (BO3) - Project Blender Phase 2 Playoffs	Eintracht Frankfurt	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xc63d9b…
10-22 18:35:30	Valorant: FunPlus Phoenix vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT Threshold China Week 1	FunPlus Phoenix	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x6a9fdd…
10-22 11:20:50	Jilin Northeast Tigers vs. Xinjiang Flying Tigers	Xinjiang Flying Tigers	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0xcd2b10…
10-22 08:12:06	Valorant: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Joblife (BO3) - Project Blender Phase 2 Group A	Joblife	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x0918de…
10-22 06:58:53	Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Project Blender Phase 2 Group B	Natus Vincere	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x04ea63…
10-21 15:48:03	val kbg wol 2026 10 22	KeepBest Gaming	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x750986…
10-17 21:25:17	Alabama State vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff	Alabama State	BUY	5	51¢	$2	0x56fff5…
10-17 20:38:35	Valorant: LOUD vs Team Vitality (BO5) - VCT Champions Playoffs	Team Vitality	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x39b075…
10-16 01:20:58	Kansas vs. Kansas State	Kansas State	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xfe8d8a…
10-11 18:15:22	LoL: Maryville University vs Disguised (BO5) - LCS Promotion Playoffs	Maryville University	BUY	7	40¢	$3	0xce024f…
10-11 14:02:58	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO5) - ESL Pro League Playoffs	MOUZ	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xbe360d…
10-11 13:22:18	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 22°C on October 13?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xcb1bbf…
10-10 23:44:18	Jackson State vs. Grambling State	Grambling State	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x1d23ec…
10-10 23:16:09	Valorant: G2 Esports vs T1 (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs	T1	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x89d963…
10-10 08:34:33	LoL: Cupid Esports vs Disguised (BO5) - LCS Promotion Playoffs	Cupid Esports	BUY	6	43¢	$3	0x226d08…
10-09 15:35:01	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 11?	Yes	BUY	4	39¢	$2	0x4e6134…
10-08 04:39:55	Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs	T1	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x6a9209…
10-08 03:27:25	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	9	20¢	$2	0x57494a…
10-07 18:20:13	LoL: Disguised vs Maryville University (BO5) - LCS Promotion Playoffs	Maryville University	BUY	7	26¢	$2	0x01a6f0…
10-07 11:01:41	Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage	PARIVISION	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x2270e2…
10-05 20:33:16	Valorant: NRG vs T1 (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs	T1	BUY	5	30¢	$1	0x8ca6ea…
10-05 13:59:37	cs2 vit fal2 2026 10 05	Team Falcons	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xb2a733…
10-05 04:05:08	wnba atl nyl 2026 10 09	Atlanta Dream	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x06d0da…
10-04 20:17:14	Counter-Strike: 9z vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage	9z	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x068321…
10-04 00:01:53	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage	Natus Vincere	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xc93bec…
10-03 15:44:57	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage	BetBoom Team	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xcde09a…
10-03 11:46:50	Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs M80 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage	M80	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xea7d5c…
10-03 11:46:33	Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage	9z	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0xcad3e9…
10-01 11:38:35	cs2 lgc prv 2026 10 03	Legacy	BUY	8	44¢	$4	0x5f1c97…
09-30 23:01:05	val tyloo tl1 2026 10 01	TYLOO	BUY	17	22¢	$4	0xccac53…
09-30 12:33:54	Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on October 1?	Yes	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x8905a2…
09-30 05:29:57	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on September 30?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xb8bcf9…
09-30 05:29:44	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 20°C on October 2?	Yes	BUY	6	38¢	$2	0x5a39e2…
09-26 12:29:27	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 84°F or higher on September 28?	Yes	BUY	4	37¢	$2	0x7c0a28…
09-26 01:15:09	lol ly sr 2026 09 26	Shopify Rebellion	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xf464de…
09-25 13:41:47	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 88°F or higher on September 27?	Yes	BUY	4	39¢	$2	0xfbb982…
09-25 13:15:12	lol c9 tl2 2026 09 27	Cloud9	BUY	4	36¢	$2	0x2a04ff…
09-21 17:10:39	lol fly sr 2026 09 25	Shopify Rebellion	BUY	9	29¢	$3	0xc63cc7…
09-20 20:27:56	San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x54f633…
09-19 19:05:35	lol g2 mkoi 2026 09 20	Movistar KOI	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0xead8cb…
09-19 00:00:24	lol kc mkoi 2026 09 19	Movistar KOI	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x35bc2e…
09-17 18:19:10	Valorant: TYLOO vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Champions Group C	TYLOO	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x464361…
09-17 18:08:27	Valorant: Karmine Corp vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Champions Group D	XLG Gaming	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x635a43…
09-16 02:51:12	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on September 17?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xf5f3d2…
09-15 18:48:37	LoL: Team Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO5) - LCS Playoffs	FlyQuest	BUY	8	21¢	$2	0x6b6300…
09-15 05:26:09	lol sr sen 2026 09 18	Shopify Rebellion	BUY	9	27¢	$2	0xc402a9…
09-15 02:44:00	New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins	Minnesota Twins	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x396ecb…
09-14 00:01:52	LoL: LYON vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs	Cloud9	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0xd1e1a9…
09-14 00:01:24	New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins	Minnesota Twins	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x133e8d…
09-13 10:43:57	LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs	Natus Vincere	BUY	11	36¢	$4	0xc4d9f5…
09-12 04:30:15	val kbg fpx 2026 09 13	KeepBest Gaming	BUY	6	39¢	$2	0x96e55f…
09-12 00:02:09	LoL: Team WE vs JD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Regional Finals Playoffs	Team WE	BUY	13	45¢	$6	0xbb7ee0…
09-11 19:58:12	lol dkc ktc 2026 09 14	Dplus KIA Challengers	BUY	4	58¢	$3	0x61fdc4…
09-08 22:57:52	Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Phillies	BUY	9	43¢	$4	0x4f0b08…
09-08 22:43:00	New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins	BUY	8	39¢	$3	0x224cb5…
09-08 16:57:34	lol t1a dkc 2026 09 10	Dplus KIA Challengers	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x75f3ac…
09-08 04:58:01	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on September 9?	Yes	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0xc7ab59…
09-07 18:39:49	Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	6	55¢	$4	0x2bd2f4…
09-07 15:19:09	val jdg aq 2026 09 10	JD Gaming	BUY	4	32¢	$1	0xe46d10…
09-07 11:16:21	LoL: Cloud9 vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs	Shopify Rebellion	BUY	15	24¢	$4	0x8fe487…
09-07 05:32:37	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on September 8?	Yes	BUY	7	23¢	$1	0x770b13…
09-07 04:15:33	lol hle1 t1 2026 09 12	T1	BUY	6	40¢	$2	0xaa48b9…
09-06 23:23:19	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 88-89°F on September 8?	Yes	BUY	6	24¢	$2	0x003576…
09-06 19:33:01	Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Phillies	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0xca2114…
09-06 17:46:52	Valorant: FlyQuest RED vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO3) - VCT Game Changers North America Playoffs	FlyQuest RED	BUY	7	40¢	$3	0x98bd22…
09-06 17:40:00	lol ig1 lgd 2026 09 08	LGD Gaming	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0x488d59…
09-06 05:25:34	lol vit mkoi 2026 09 12	Team Vitality	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xa1a83a…
09-05 23:00:01	val nova fpx 2026 09 10	Nova Esports	BUY	7	39¢	$3	0x6bf8b4…
09-05 19:15:48	lol g2 kc 2026 09 06	Karmine Corp	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x840fce…
09-05 17:49:48	Valorant: Bilibili Gaming vs KeepBest Gaming (BO3) - China Evolution Series Act 3 Playoffs	Bilibili Gaming	BUY	8	34¢	$3	0x4e12ac…
09-05 15:01:15	val ns1 ge1 2026 09 06	Global Esports	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0x53c603…
09-05 00:26:45	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on September 6?	Yes	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x4f064a…
09-05 00:25:43	LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs FlyQuest (BO3) - LCS Regular Season	Shopify Rebellion	BUY	8	39¢	$3	0x7e1299…
09-04 22:13:00	val nrg loud 2026 09 05	LOUD	BUY	9	48¢	$4	0x1be806…
09-04 21:44:39	LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - LCK Challengers League Playoffs	KT Rolster Challengers	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x0b0294…
09-04 16:22:48	lol al blg 2026 09 07	Anyone's Legend	BUY	6	29¢	$2	0xb67476…
09-04 15:38:22	val ge1 t1 2026 09 05	Global Esports	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x32bcde…
09-04 15:37:52	lol t1 dk 2026 09 06	Dplus KIA	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xb967d4…
09-03 01:11:27	LoL: LYON vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season	Disguised	BUY	7	18¢	$1	0xab505b…
09-03 00:50:33	val ag1 jdg 2026 09 06	All Gamers	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x375f41…
09-02 23:56:39	Valorant: NRG vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Playoffs	100 Thieves	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xfb663b…
09-02 18:37:15	Valorant: TEC Esports vs TYLOO (BO3) - China Evolution Series Act 3 Playoffs	TYLOO	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x7ab1d8…
09-01 21:11:09	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on September 3?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x3c353e…
09-01 17:48:43	LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Ninjas in Pyjamas	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x6eebf4…
09-01 17:40:33	Valorant: VARREL vs T1 (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs	VARREL	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xef58fc…
09-01 17:39:33	LoL: Sentinels vs Cloud9 (BO3) - LCS Regular Season	Sentinels	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x495cd9…
09-01 17:34:21	LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Team WE	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0x7ca0c4…
09-01 17:33:51	LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	LGD Gaming	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0xd5c661…
08-29 07:32:39	Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-08-29?	Yes	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0xc12b59…
08-25 13:52:25	lol navi gx 2026 08 29	GIANTX	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x465837…