Mild-Efficiency — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$18

Unrealized P&L

+$14

Hit rate

72.2%

Resolved

Trades

118

lifetime

Volume

$878

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$146

2 positions

First seen

2026-05-20

last 10-25 05:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

85% 57% -$18

Politics

15% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes		+220	$80	49¢	$108	+$28	08-10 16:49
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes		+1,659	$52	2¢	$38	-$14	10-25 05:45

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	2	$80	220	0	+220	open	—	08-10 16:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	6	$56	139	32	+107	Down	+$6	05-23 07:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	5	$55	35	35	+0	Down	+$15	05-23 10:40
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	3	$52	1,659	0	+1,659	open	—	10-25 05:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	8	$50	51	40	+11	Down	$0	05-23 10:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	4	$43	28	28	+0	Down	+$13	05-23 07:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	6	$43	54	22	+31	Up	+$1	05-23 10:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	6	$40	90	23	+67	Down	+$6	05-23 10:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	7	$40	29	29	+0	Up	+$6	05-23 10:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	5	$34	31	19	+13	Up	+$2	05-23 11:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	4	$33	18	18	+0	Up	+$3	05-23 11:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	5	$31	92	92	+0	Down	+$8	05-23 07:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	3	$31	21	21	+0	Up	+$11	05-23 08:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	3	$28	18	18	+0	Up	+$8	05-23 10:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	9	$27	40	10	+30	Down	-$20	05-23 11:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	5	$25	60	0	+60	Down	-$25	05-23 09:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	3	$24	16	16	+0	Up	+$4	05-23 06:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	4	$24	20	20	+0	Up	+$4	05-23 10:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	4	$24	25	12	+13	Down	$0	05-23 10:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	3	$23	14	14	+0	Up	+$3	05-23 10:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	3	$22	12	12	+0	Down	+$2	05-23 10:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	4	$20	33	0	+33	Down	-$20	05-23 10:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	3	$18	18	8	+10	Up	-$2	05-23 08:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	3	$15	27	0	+27	Up	-$15	05-23 10:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	2	$11	42	42	+0	Down	+$1	05-22 10:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	2	$10	300	0	+300	Up	-$10	05-22 10:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	2	$10	125	0	+125	Up	-$10	05-23 07:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	1	$5	122	0	+122	Up	-$5	05-22 10:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 16:50 UTC	2	$2	3	0	+3	Down	-$2	08-10 16:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	1	$1	29	0	+29	Down	-$1	05-23 07:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 05:45:33	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	87	2¢	$2	0x35e905…
10-22 07:34:06	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	1,154	3¢	$30	0x84909f…
08-10 16:52:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 16:50 UTC	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xff7f21…
08-10 16:52:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 16:50 UTC	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x87038e…
08-10 16:49:57	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	88	34¢	$30	0xd31a1f…
05-23 11:13:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xfa4d8e…
05-23 11:13:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x0a144e…
05-23 11:13:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xe0d76d…
05-23 11:13:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xdb3bda…
05-23 11:12:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0xc5ca97…
05-23 11:11:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x481dcc…
05-23 11:10:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xdd7c77…
05-23 11:10:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	SELL	10	35¢	$4	0x8c5bff…
05-23 11:09:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xe84b28…
05-23 11:05:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	SELL	19	99¢	$18	0x2a2368…
05-23 11:03:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x514397…
05-23 11:02:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xabc362…
05-23 11:02:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x484531…
05-23 11:02:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x80b4b0…
05-23 11:00:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	SELL	18	99¢	$18	0xd92203…
05-23 10:56:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xd35e9c…
05-23 10:56:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xf1048e…
05-23 10:56:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x2d93ac…
05-23 10:54:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x3c8d74…
05-23 10:53:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xd760b7…
05-23 10:51:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xfa08fd…
05-23 10:51:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x2e142e…
05-23 10:50:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0x0e7827…
05-23 10:48:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	11	3¢	$0	0xbc4f97…
05-23 10:48:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x54a279…
05-23 10:47:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x9a7007…
05-23 10:47:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x0aa2b4…
05-23 10:47:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	SELL	16	9¢	$1	0x862a16…
05-23 10:46:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x460eb5…
05-23 10:46:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x863f47…
05-23 10:45:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x1e1bb0…
05-23 10:42:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0x7d17f5…
05-23 10:42:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x7a10f4…
05-23 10:42:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x70a802…
05-23 10:40:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	SELL	35	99¢	$35	0xcab4b1…
05-23 10:36:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x18a3fe…
05-23 10:35:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x0badea…
05-23 10:35:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xc93401…
05-23 10:35:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x66942f…
05-23 10:35:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x86eb25…
05-23 10:34:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	SELL	9	41¢	$4	0x933e41…
05-23 10:32:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x1f8954…
05-23 10:31:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xd38262…
05-23 10:28:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x9b6074…
05-23 10:25:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x5a4df0…
05-23 10:25:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x7700f2…
05-23 10:25:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0xbdda8b…
05-23 10:24:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x990d48…
05-23 10:24:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x1410bb…
05-23 10:22:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0xb7b520…
05-23 10:21:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x7c859f…
05-23 10:21:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x1e32cc…
05-23 10:20:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	SELL	18	99¢	$18	0xe338cf…
05-23 10:16:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x1a4aa9…
05-23 10:16:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x3cea5c…
05-23 10:15:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0xb0027f…
05-23 10:13:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	31	3¢	$1	0x23626f…
05-23 10:11:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x873213…
05-23 10:11:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xc30963…
05-23 10:11:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xf97e8e…
05-23 10:11:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xd18e38…
05-23 10:10:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xd4238c…
05-23 10:07:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xd1b14d…
05-23 10:07:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x7caebf…
05-23 10:06:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x4b0dae…
05-23 10:06:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	SELL	9	31¢	$3	0x67a289…
05-23 10:05:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x0a1c44…
05-23 10:05:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xeb95d2…
05-23 10:03:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	SELL	14	94¢	$13	0x9435aa…
05-23 10:01:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0xed844c…
05-23 10:01:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x7785ca…
05-23 10:00:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x81342e…
05-23 09:56:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x67c3c1…
05-23 09:56:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x364b0c…
05-23 09:54:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x4598db…
05-23 09:53:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x901fde…
05-23 09:51:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x75cd0f…
05-23 09:51:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x084b3b…
05-23 09:50:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x2a683c…
05-23 08:05:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	SELL	21	99¢	$21	0x4dd23c…
05-23 08:01:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x5e3c48…
05-23 08:01:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x54f36f…
05-23 08:00:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x1f5d0a…
05-23 07:56:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x60bdfa…
05-23 07:55:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0xb470f5…
05-23 07:43:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	29	4¢	$1	0x1795ff…
05-23 07:36:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0xb8e951…
05-23 07:36:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0x95af5c…
05-23 07:35:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0xe9f32b…
05-23 07:34:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	SELL	83	13¢	$11	0x79f899…
05-23 07:31:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x5aa89f…
05-23 07:31:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	BUY	12	12¢	$1	0xd659b9…
05-23 07:30:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xb70d40…
05-23 07:24:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	SELL	32	97¢	$31	0xdb86dd…
05-23 07:23:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	107	5¢	$5	0x2fab27…